2022 Trade Deadline

[Irrelevant Dude]

Yeah I think going hard after Musgrove or Rodon is a must, along with finding a solution at 1st.

I don't want any part of Rodon with his injury history. Obviously he is a great pitcher when healthy, and he is probably worth the risk for a team that is one piece away, but I am too afraid of the Cubs getting burnt by injuries and bad contracts at this stage in the rebuild.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah I think going hard after Musgrove or Rodon is a must, along with finding a solution at 1st.

I don't want any part of Rodon with his injury history. Obviously he is a great pitcher when healthy, and he is probably worth the risk for a team that is one piece away, but I am too afraid of the Cubs getting burnt by injuries and bad contracts at this stage in the rebuild.

 

I'll play devil's advocate since I think what you're saying makes sense, but there is another lens we can look through. In order to get back to competitiveness, the team needs to have generally unlikely things happen more than normal, and you do that by taking on more risk. There's lots of different types of risk(developmental risk with poor performers or players in low minors, age risk, contract risk, etc), but taking on injury risk can be a way to get ahead.

 

Said another way, for a team that has some emergent pitching depth and will not be close to their payroll capacity even with a Rodon and other significant FA spending, is having Rodon's talent for 2023-2025+ worth paying for, even if it's not for 30 starts? I think you can make the argument that yeah you take the chance to have his upside and ability to anchor a postseason rotation, especially considering there are not any realistic internal options that look possible to do so in that timeline.

[Bertz]

Blue Jays Happ

Yahoo story speculating on Jays Interest in Happ and others.

 

Curious what the Jays would send our way for Happ. Everything they have seems either far too valuable or not nearly valuable enough.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Blue Jays Happ

Yahoo story speculating on Jays Interest in Happ and others.

 

Curious what the Jays would send our way for Happ. Everything they have seems either far too valuable or not nearly valuable enough.

 

If they've cooled on Martinez given his swing and miss issues at AA, that would probably work. Not very glamorous as a main piece from our end. I like Tiedemann, but a guy who will start 2023 in AA is a tough sell as the headliner unless other deadline deals are more immediately useful. No idea what to make of Groshans either.

 

EDIT: BaseballTradeValues says Groshans and Tiedemann for Happ is right at the edge of possibility, so let's say that it's gospel this time and call it a day.

[Cubswin11]

Blue Jays Happ

Yahoo story speculating on Jays Interest in Happ and others.

 

Curious what the Jays would send our way for Happ. Everything they have seems either far too valuable or not nearly valuable enough.

Since we have a 40-man/Rule 5 crunch coming, maybe we throw in a prospect on the 40-man to up the get for one of theirs who isn’t and doesn’t need to be on it next year.

[muntjack]

So if Groshans, who is slugging .330 this season at AAA, can headline a deal for a 27-yr old All-Star making $10 mil/yr with multiple years of control, we should be able to deal our top 5 prospects and field the '27 Yankees.

[Bertz]

Blue Jays Happ

Yahoo story speculating on Jays Interest in Happ and others.

 

Curious what the Jays would send our way for Happ. Everything they have seems either far too valuable or not nearly valuable enough.

 

If they've cooled on Martinez given his swing and miss issues at AA, that would probably work. Not very glamorous as a main piece from our end. I like Tiedemann, but a guy who will start 2023 in AA is a tough sell as the headliner unless other deadline deals are more immediately useful. No idea what to make of Groshans either.

 

EDIT: BaseballTradeValues says Groshans and Tiedemann for Happ is right at the edge of possibility, so let's say that it's gospel this time and call it a day.

 

I'm with muntjack on this one, that'd be a tough one to swallow. Value is value for the rentals, but personally I need to be bowled over on Happ.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Curious what the Jays would send our way for Happ. Everything they have seems either far too valuable or not nearly valuable enough.

 

If they've cooled on Martinez given his swing and miss issues at AA, that would probably work. Not very glamorous as a main piece from our end. I like Tiedemann, but a guy who will start 2023 in AA is a tough sell as the headliner unless other deadline deals are more immediately useful. No idea what to make of Groshans either.

 

EDIT: BaseballTradeValues says Groshans and Tiedemann for Happ is right at the edge of possibility, so let's say that it's gospel this time and call it a day.

 

I'm with muntjack on this one, that'd be a tough one to swallow. Value is value for the rentals, but personally I need to be bowled over on Happ.

 

To be clear, I'm not endorsing that deal per se, just trying to solve the problem of what does a deal look like that from a cumulative value perspective might be accepted on both sides. And if it makes anyone feel better, the same guy wrote the 'trade for Effross' blog post and the Yahoo piece, so I remain skeptical that there's a match for Happ here.

[chopsx9]

Blue Jays Happ

Yahoo story speculating on Jays Interest in Happ and others.

 

Curious what the Jays would send our way for Happ. Everything they have seems either far too valuable or not nearly valuable enough.

 

I think it would be more than just Happ if it were to happen. Jays are also desperate for bullpen help so it could be fleshed out there. Ortega could be of interest as well as they are severely RH heavy. They are also looking for SP but other than Thompson don't think we have much of interest unless Stroman rattles off a couple of gems in a row possibly.

[mul21]

Yeah I think going hard after Musgrove or Rodon is a must, along with finding a solution at 1st.

I don't want any part of Rodon with his injury history. Obviously he is a great pitcher when healthy, and he is probably worth the risk for a team that is one piece away, but I am too afraid of the Cubs getting burnt by injuries and bad contracts at this stage in the rebuild.

 

I'll play devil's advocate since I think what you're saying makes sense, but there is another lens we can look through. In order to get back to competitiveness, the team needs to have generally unlikely things happen more than normal, and you do that by taking on more risk. There's lots of different types of risk(developmental risk with poor performers or players in low minors, age risk, contract risk, etc), but taking on injury risk can be a way to get ahead.

 

Said another way, for a team that has some emergent pitching depth and will not be close to their payroll capacity even with a Rodon and other significant FA spending, is having Rodon's talent for 2023-2025+ worth paying for, even if it's not for 30 starts? I think you can make the argument that yeah you take the chance to have his upside and ability to anchor a postseason rotation, especially considering there are not any realistic internal options that look possible to do so in that timeline.

 

This feels like justifying Rich Harden 2.0. I haven't followed Rodon closely enough to know if he's that fragile but I still have PTSD from all Harden's unrealized potential.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't want any part of Rodon with his injury history. Obviously he is a great pitcher when healthy, and he is probably worth the risk for a team that is one piece away, but I am too afraid of the Cubs getting burnt by injuries and bad contracts at this stage in the rebuild.

 

I'll play devil's advocate since I think what you're saying makes sense, but there is another lens we can look through. In order to get back to competitiveness, the team needs to have generally unlikely things happen more than normal, and you do that by taking on more risk. There's lots of different types of risk(developmental risk with poor performers or players in low minors, age risk, contract risk, etc), but taking on injury risk can be a way to get ahead.

 

Said another way, for a team that has some emergent pitching depth and will not be close to their payroll capacity even with a Rodon and other significant FA spending, is having Rodon's talent for 2023-2025+ worth paying for, even if it's not for 30 starts? I think you can make the argument that yeah you take the chance to have his upside and ability to anchor a postseason rotation, especially considering there are not any realistic internal options that look possible to do so in that timeline.

 

This feels like justifying Rich Harden 2.0. I haven't followed Rodon closely enough to know if he's that fragile but I still have PTSD from all Harden's unrealized potential.

 

Harden put up 4.0 fWAR in 38 starts that spanned July 2008 through 2009. From a quick game log scan he missed a maximum of 8 starts as a Cub, which is a downside I'd be more than happy with in this case.

 

But even setting that aside, that is the risk you take. Sometimes the player gets hurt, maybe at an especially inopportune time. Sometimes they're, well, Rodon 2022. You can take the risk of that injury happening, or you can take the risk that an otherwise healthy pitcher gets hurt(look at Hendricks this year) or that adding a player without that risk doesn't get you the upside you need to be truly competitive(see all the Cub rotations since Arrieta left). I'm not going to plant a flag on Rodon personally, but in a world where even good starters aren't locks to go 6 innings, I think we should be careful about how we project the wounds from a different SP era to what the roster should be in 2023+.

[CubinNY]

So if Groshans, who is slugging .330 this season at AAA, can headline a deal for a 27-yr old All-Star making $10 mil/yr with multiple years of control, we should be able to deal our top 5 prospects and field the '27 Yankees.

Well put.

 

More to the point, if that's all you can get for Happ while he's at peak value, he's of more value to the current and future Cubs than what you can get for him. To me, at least, it makes little sense to trade him.

[chopsx9]

So if Groshans, who is slugging .330 this season at AAA, can headline a deal for a 27-yr old All-Star making $10 mil/yr with multiple years of control, we should be able to deal our top 5 prospects and field the '27 Yankees.

Well put.

 

More to the point, if that's all you can get for Happ while he's at peak value, he's of more value to the current and future Cubs than what you can get for him. To me, at least, it makes little sense to trade him.

First off just because some website says something doesn't make it fact. Second the Cubs don't need to trade Happ so I can't imagine there'd be a trade scenario where the other team isn't overpaying for Happ - otherwise you're right; you just don't do it. The Jays are in panic mode they've lost 9 of 10 and are out of a WC spot with tiebreakers when everyone in Toronto assumed the division was theirs for the taking. I'm happy to keep Happ but if someone's willing to overpay you have to take a look. And again I don't think it would be Happ straight up I think bullpen arm(s) would be involved as well.

[CubinNY]

Does Wisdom have any trade value?

[Bertz]

 

There's no way they don't nab Contreras IMO

 

Also would not hate JD Davis as the 2nd piece in a deal. Let's see what he does if he's given full runway at one position (1B) for the rest of the year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's no way they don't nab Contreras IMO

 

It just makes way too much sense compared to other options. Alderson also was specific about saying how they don't want to deal from the top of the farm system(name-checking Alvarez and Baty) and lamenting the loss of PCA from last year, so there may be a pretty thin line to tread. Fangraphs finally got the Mets prospect list updated, which means we now have that to look from and it's including very recent reports/rankings so it should be more relevant than a November list for deadline purposes. A quick rundown of players that are interesting to me:

 

- 3B Brett Baty - 55 FV - Big power corner infielder w/ .370 wOBA at AA. Seems like it's going to be very difficult to talk them into using him for Contreras, possibly even if Robertson was going too.

 

- OF Alex Ramirez - 50 FV - Think a lot of Alcantara(young OF with tools and great Low-A performance) and a little bit of PCA(already at High A, possible CF). I like the value he represents but it's not a great fit with the Cubs org depth

 

- SP Matt Allan - 45+ FV - Mets spent a ton of draft budget signing him and he has some big potential, but he's still rehabbing TJS and hasn't pitched since 2019(10 IP at R & A-). Not a great fit as a primary return and maybe ambitious as a secondary/more distant piece

 

- 3B Mark Vientos - 45 FV - A rumored return for Bryant last year, Vientos is a probable 1B with big power and big swing and miss in the Wisdom mold, with a good not great AAA line. His report namechecking Bobby Dalbec is not inspiring, but it also points out he's much younger at same levels, and the Cubs have had some success reforming this profile's swing for greater viability.

 

- SP Eric Orze - 45 FV - Orze hasn't started a game in his pro career but Fangraphs thinks he has the repertoire for it. He's already to AAA, but since he dosn't need to be rostered until next December you could take your time building up the innings

 

- SP Jose Butto - 45 FV - SP with a solid fastball (sit 92-94) and a good changeup acquitting himself well in AA. Would make a nice bridge of potential rotation options between Kilian and Wicks/Herz

 

- C Nick Meyer - 35+ FV - A plus defensive catcher with a .258/.381/.367 line and 23/31 BB/K (157 PA) seems like a really useful throw in for the current state of the org's catching

[CubinNY]

There's no way they don't nab Contreras IMO

 

It just makes way too much sense compared to other options. Alderson also was specific about saying how they don't want to deal from the top of the farm system(name-checking Alvarez and Baty) and lamenting the loss of PCA from last year, so there may be a pretty thin line to tread. Fangraphs finally got the Mets prospect list updated, which means we now have that to look from and it's including very recent reports/rankings so it should be more relevant than a November list for deadline purposes. A quick rundown of players that are interesting to me:

 

- 3B Brett Baty - 55 FV - Big power corner infielder w/ .370 wOBA at AA. Seems like it's going to be very difficult to talk them into using him for Contreras, possibly even if Robertson was going too.

 

- OF Alex Ramirez - 50 FV - Think a lot of Alcantara(young OF with tools and great Low-A performance) and a little bit of PCA(already at High A, possible CF). I like the value he represents but it's not a great fit with the Cubs org depth

 

- SP Matt Allan - 45+ FV - Mets spent a ton of draft budget signing him and he has some big potential, but he's still rehabbing TJS and hasn't pitched since 2019(10 IP at R & A-). Not a great fit as a primary return and maybe ambitious as a secondary/more distant piece

 

- 3B Mark Vientos - 45 FV - A rumored return for Bryant last year, Vientos is a probable 1B with big power and big swing and miss in the Wisdom mold, with a good not great AAA line. His report namechecking Bobby Dalbec is not inspiring, but it also points out he's much younger at same levels, and the Cubs have had some success reforming this profile's swing for greater viability.

 

- SP Eric Orze - 45 FV - Orze hasn't started a game in his pro career but Fangraphs thinks he has the repertoire for it. He's already to AAA, but since he dosn't need to be rostered until next December you could take your time building up the innings

 

- SP Jose Butto - 45 FV - SP with a solid fastball (sit 92-94) and a good changeup acquitting himself well in AA. Would make a nice bridge of potential rotation options between Kilian and Wicks/Herz

 

- C Nick Meyer - 35+ FV - A plus defensive catcher with a .258/.381/.367 line and 23/31 BB/K (157 PA) seems like a really useful throw in for the current state of the org's catching

I'm just going to say right now, whoever they get I will not like because I think they are monumentally stupid in trading Willson. Then when the player is good and knocking on the door be in MLB, I will like the trade a lot better.

[Bertz]

I know objectively "currently injured pitcher in A Ball" is not the return you're looking for in return for a guy like Willson, but I do really like Matt Allan. I wouldn't mind something like Allan + JD Davis or Allan + Butto + a LATAM lottery ticket.

 

It would impact what you should ask for in return for the other guys though. So while I would be down with it in isolation I think it would have to be paired with Happ and/or Robertson primarily bringing back dudes at AA/AAA/MLB.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Athletic did an interesting article where they asked the beat writers of most of the current contenders to weigh in on the likelihood of trading for Contreras: https://theathletic.com/3415733/2022/07/13/willson-contreras-mlb-trade-deadline/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

 

Almost all of them are basically RIGBYs, "Willson is great, but he'll cost too much/the team likes their crappy catchers/etc". The one that hedges the least, and this may just be the writer's style/interpretation, is the Padres. So time to fire up the Willson + his salary for Myers and Campusano framework again.

[Hrubes20]

I know objectively "currently injured pitcher in A Ball" is not the return you're looking for in return for a guy like Willson, but I do really like Matt Allan. I wouldn't mind something like Allan + JD Davis or Allan + Butto + a LATAM lottery ticket.

 

It would impact what you should ask for in return for the other guys though. So while I would be down with it in isolation I think it would have to be paired with Happ and/or Robertson primarily bringing back dudes at AA/AAA/MLB.

 

Throw Calvin Ziegler in this group as well. He's supposedly not done for the year, but he hasn't pitched in awhile.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR: Could Lucas Giolito Be This Year’s José Berríos?

 

He would cost quite a bit, but he would certainly solidify the rotation.

[Cubswin11]

Wake up, Hoyer!

fv.

In a somewhat shocking development, the Washington Nationals will now listen to trade offers for transcendent superstar Juan Soto, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. The change of heart comes after Soto reportedly rejected a $440MM extension offer.

 

Trade’s tough tho and when the going gets tough the Cubs rebuild…Going to have to get over that sometime probably

 

If they wait until the offseason to move him we have to be in one of the better spots to trade for him with the prospect capital we already have and with whatever we do in the draft and get at the deadline.

Edited July 16, 2022 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Per the article, the offer was for 15 years(29M AAV), but didnt specify if there were any deferrals the Lerners love.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Bring the guy

[JeffH]

Davis, Herz, Caissie, Palencia, and the minor league shortstop of their choosing for Soto.