Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-15-22

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Game (All Times Central):

 

Iowa vs Omaha, 1:08 pm

Tennessee vs Montgomery, 1:00 pm

South Bend vs Ft Wayne, 1:05 pm

Myrtle Beach vs Charleston, 5:05 pm

 

Iowa: RHP Matt Swarmer

South Bend: RHP Joe Nahas

Myrtle Beach: LHP Luke Little

[UK]

Another good day on the farm. Swarmer continues to miss bats despite marginal stuff.

 

Washer is showing he belongs at AA, his improvement over what he did at SB last year has been great.

[Bertz]

Bryce Ball on base 3 more times today.

 

If things continue on their current trajectory, we should do a 1B moving day within the next month. Cut Schwindel, call up one of Maldonado/Young, and bump Ball up to Iowa

[Bertz]

 

Finally up over .200 for the season too. Hopefully by this time next week he has his overall season line up to a solid place

[toonsterwu]

Just noticed Danis Correa is on the AA squad...threw a couple shutout today. He's only thrown 11 IP this season including during the recent no hitter but hit 100 before having TJ in 2018 and allowed only 1 HR in ~80 low minors IP...22 until the end of August and also currently the youngest arm on the Smokies roster

 

Also Andy Weber is at .368/.415/.460 on the season, walked ino today with a ~33% GB rate, has been playing 1B lately while Ball DHs, owns a .47 GO/AO in the minors including a 42% FB rate last year in AA, knocked off 10% from last year's K rate

 

Weber's a useful guy to have in the system. He could probably still dabble at short if needed, and can help out at 6 spots. Always useful to have a guy like that in the upper levels.

 

I really haven't had a lot of time to follow things in awhile, but can someone answer a couple things for me -

 

1) What's Anderson Espinoza's stuff look like this season? I've seen a couple blurbs that seem to suggest he's hitting 96-98 in short outings with a solid breaking ball? The line looks fine. Easy to forget that he's only 24, and if the raw stuff is there, you try your best to extend him as a starter.

 

2) What exactly is Swarmer's stuff these days? I vaguely recall when he was in A ball it was something like a low 90's 2-seamer, average change, average curve, solid command. Also, did he ever fill out? He wasn't tall and lanky, IIRC ... he was tall and skinny. I'm just pondering if he can actually amp it up out of the pen, or if he is what he is, an end of the rotation upper level arm that occasionally could get to the majors.

 

3) I'm still not that enthused about Caissie. What's the reports these days? I vaguely recall when that trade happened that I had questions if he would make enough contact.

 

4) Anything on Kohl Franklin? That command looks terrible, but I'm willing to chalk that up to the long layoff for now. How's the stuff look?

 

5) Myrtle's a fascinating lineup. Not too bothered by Kevin Alcantara's Ks yet (same goes for Canario), and love the early work from Triantos and PCA.

 

I still absolutely hated the Florida State League and Midwest League swapping levels, but that may simply be nostalgia of some sort. Just feels odd seeing it the way it is.

[craig]

Has Cassie pulled any/many of his hits during his recent hot streak?

[Bertz]

Has Cassie pulled any/many of his hits during his recent hot streak?

 

I think aside from the homer it's mostly been going the other way still. It's interesting that him and Pinango are essentially working on the exact same things, I don't think any of us saw that coming into the year.

 

I'm curious what the plan is with Anderson Espinoza. I was checking in on him this morning and Fangraphs says he's on his last minor league option. They're not always right (I love that somewhere finally has it for every player but it does come with some mistakes), but if they are I kind of think they have maybe another month before they have to pull the rip cord on him as a SP. His numbers at AA aren't terrible, but if he has to be in MLB full time by the end of the year, he's about out of runway.

 

Relatedly, we're far enough removed from the lockout that there's gotta be something wrong with Vizcaino beyond visa issues.

[toonsterwu]

Considering the Cubs aren't going anywhere this year and, well, next, and heck, maybe even 2024, even if you have to call Espinoza up, if it's me, I think you keep him extended as best as possible. That means an odd major league piggybacking situation perhaps where he gets 2-4 innings every 5 days, but I think you run it as long as you can to see what he has.

 

All that said, I'm aware that the chances are high that they would simply shift him to a high SIRP role.

[JeffH]

According to Arizona Phil, Espinoza will be optionable in 2023.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I struggle with how to interpret a lot of the pitchers that are in a similar category, some of whom have been discussed in the last week. I'll roughly call them guys with big stuff but at least one big flaw, probably control and possibly also lack of performance/endurance as a starter. This is a broad brush, but guys like Espinoza, Kohl Franklin, Cam Sanders, Luke Little, DJ Herz, and Max Bain all qualify to a certain degree.

 

On one hand, pitching development has been turned on its head so much that there isn't a golden path guys have to walk down, and with innings being managed it's very possible that the reps they need to take that last step may just come later than they did 10 years ago. Plus with multi-inning relievers and piggyback situations becoming more of a norm at the MLB level, they don't need to be a 200 IP workhorse to be valuable.

 

On the other hand, prospects fail as a rule, so guys who can't throw enough strikes to not walk 4-5 guys per 9 in South Bend or Tennessee are really unlikely to be key MLB contributors without a big change(and one that modern pitch dev hasn't solved as well as stuff). And when you think about potential rule changes that disincentivize big stuff/no control profiles and/or encourage SP endurance, the window of opportunity for them to be very useful at the MLB level seems small. And ultimately if MIRP is the ceiling for a guy I find it hard to get overly jazzed, because that profile is increasingly fungible. I named 6 of them above and none were in the Cubs Fangraphs top 10, for example.

 

I'm not really driving at a specific point here, just sharing that I struggle with being happy and excited that the system has a lot of big stuff guys filtering through that show signs and stretches of dominance, but when I look at their performance as a whole and I don't really see too many guys I'm particularly hopeful of becoming rotation regulars(Kilian and Wicks are probably the 2, and notably they are in the aforementioned Top 10).

[Bertz]

According to Arizona Phil, Espinoza will be optionable in 2023.

 

That's awesome. I thought it was certainly possible with how much IL time he's had, but glad to see it confirmed. So if he needs to stay at Tenn until August that's not really a problem.

[Bertz]

I struggle with how to interpret a lot of the pitchers that are in a similar category, some of whom have been discussed in the last week. I'll roughly call them guys with big stuff but at least one big flaw, probably control and possibly also lack of performance/endurance as a starter. This is a broad brush, but guys like Espinoza, Kohl Franklin, Cam Sanders, Luke Little, DJ Herz, and Max Bain all qualify to a certain degree.

 

On one hand, pitching development has been turned on its head so much that there isn't a golden path guys have to walk down, and with innings being managed it's very possible that the reps they need to take that last step may just come later than they did 10 years ago. Plus with multi-inning relievers and piggyback situations becoming more of a norm at the MLB level, they don't need to be a 200 IP workhorse to be valuable.

 

On the other hand, prospects fail as a rule, so guys who can't throw enough strikes to not walk 4-5 guys per 9 in South Bend or Tennessee are really unlikely to be key MLB contributors without a big change(and one that modern pitch dev hasn't solved as well as stuff). And when you think about potential rule changes that disincentivize big stuff/no control profiles and/or encourage SP endurance, the window of opportunity for them to be very useful at the MLB level seems small. And ultimately if MIRP is the ceiling for a guy I find it hard to get overly jazzed, because that profile is increasingly fungible. I named 6 of them above and none were in the Cubs Fangraphs top 10, for example.

 

I'm not really driving at a specific point here, just sharing that I struggle with being happy and excited that the system has a lot of big stuff guys filtering through that show signs and stretches of dominance, but when I look at their performance as a whole and I don't really see too many guys I'm particularly hopeful of becoming rotation regulars(Kilian and Wicks are probably the 2, and notably they are in the aforementioned Top 10).

 

I think the new rules will help make multi-inning relief more viable. I kind of wonder if the typical pitching staff in a few years is:

 

5x SP

1x Closer

2x Setup arms

2x Middle Relief arms (with an emphasis on option-ability and/or having a rubber arm)

2x Long Relievers (I imagine one you feel able to use in leverage situations, and one who's more of a project e.g. how we have Thompson + Rucker right now)

 

That said, it's disheartening that SO MANY of our good arms' trajectory seems to be moving toward the 9-15 batters faced range. At the MLB level Thompson, Steele, and Alzolay all look destined for that role and then on the MiLB level the arms you called out plus Jensen and Riley Thompson.

 

Simple odds say that a few of those guys will 80th percentile outcome their way to legit starter status, but it's really hard to say right now who those guys will be. Iowa's bereft enough of SP talent at this moment that there's still time to play it by ear, but enough arms are high enough up the ladder that the deadline to make at least ~half of those decisions is when minor league assignments are made next year coming out of ST.

[sneakypower]

I struggle with how to interpret a lot of the pitchers that are in a similar category, some of whom have been discussed in the last week. I'll roughly call them guys with big stuff but at least one big flaw, probably control and possibly also lack of performance/endurance as a starter. This is a broad brush, but guys like Espinoza, Kohl Franklin, Cam Sanders, Luke Little, DJ Herz, and Max Bain all qualify to a certain degree.

 

On one hand, pitching development has been turned on its head so much that there isn't a golden path guys have to walk down, and with innings being managed it's very possible that the reps they need to take that last step may just come later than they did 10 years ago. Plus with multi-inning relievers and piggyback situations becoming more of a norm at the MLB level, they don't need to be a 200 IP workhorse to be valuable.

 

On the other hand, prospects fail as a rule, so guys who can't throw enough strikes to not walk 4-5 guys per 9 in South Bend or Tennessee are really unlikely to be key MLB contributors without a big change(and one that modern pitch dev hasn't solved as well as stuff). And when you think about potential rule changes that disincentivize big stuff/no control profiles and/or encourage SP endurance, the window of opportunity for them to be very useful at the MLB level seems small. And ultimately if MIRP is the ceiling for a guy I find it hard to get overly jazzed, because that profile is increasingly fungible. I named 6 of them above and none were in the Cubs Fangraphs top 10, for example.

 

I'm not really driving at a specific point here, just sharing that I struggle with being happy and excited that the system has a lot of big stuff guys filtering through that show signs and stretches of dominance, but when I look at their performance as a whole and I don't really see too many guys I'm particularly hopeful of becoming rotation regulars(Kilian and Wicks are probably the 2, and notably they are in the aforementioned Top 10).

to me this is kinda the same story with many of our hitting prospects, that have shown good raw power but also have struggled enough with Ks, consistency, positional value that you wonder if at their peak they'll be really too different from moderately productive players that aren't too highly valued by orgs like Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Randall Grichuk, whatever, etc.

[toonsterwu]

It's a very boom/bust system right now. Again, don't follow as much anymore for personal reasons, but I'm not there on Wicks yet (he really should put up good numbers in the MWL). Killian's the only arm that looks like a relatively safe bet to be a rotation arm, and even that might be assuming too much. It's silly to say this, considering he's so young, but Triantos feels like the safest bat in our system.

 

Odds are, we'll get a few solid contributors, but the boom/bust nature of this crop really leaves a whole range of possibilities. Considering they haven't drafted that high in awhile, being able to have a crop of guys with huge upsides is nice, so we'll just have to hope development can work some magic. I think the guy that I'm really hopeful on, considering age and performance so far, is Alcantara. It's hard to be concerned about K's for this group of guys right now (raw, early in the year, mess of COVID era likely hampered development of raw guys), hence why I'm not that worried about Canario's (although that K rate is pretty ugly), but if Alcantara can keep this up (a big if), steady performance that is, I'd like to see them push him up to A+ later this year just to see how he can handle things.

[craig]

It's a very boom/bust system right now. ....

 

I'm not sure I see a lot of "boom", myself? A "boom" pitcher needs some combination of both stuff and command. We've got guys who can be major league contributors, but I'm not sure I'm seeing big "boom" guys? Do Killian or Wicks have the stuff to be "boom", versus 3-4-5 guys? Do Herz or Bain or Franklin have the control to "boom"?

 

Similar for hitters. Do I imagine any of our guys with the power-contact-defense profile to perhaps project as being in-consideration-for-top-5-MVP-guys? Maybe Hernandez will be, beats me. Maybe PCA will develop into a 15-20 HR guy and be really good. But many of the others just seem to have enough imperfections that while useful is within reach for some, "boom" seems relatively remote.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[toonsterwu]

It's a very boom/bust system right now. ....

 

I'm not sure I see a lot of "boom", myself? A "boom" pitcher needs some combination of both stuff and command. We've got guys who can be major league contributors, but I'm not sure I'm seeing big "boom" guys? Do Killian or Wicks have the stuff to be "boom", versus 3-4-5 guys? Do Herz or Bain or Franklin have the control to "boom"?

 

Similar for hitters. Do I imagine any of our guys with the power-contact-defense profile to perhaps project as being in-consideration-for-top-5-MVP-guys? Maybe Hernandez will be, beats me. Maybe PCA will develop into a 15-20 HR guy and be really good. But many of the others just seem to have enough imperfections that while useful is within reach for some, "boom" seems relatively remote.

 

I guess it comes down to how one defines boom. I wasn't exactly thinking top 5 MVP possibilities. Rather, just more whether or not they can become solid Tier 1 starters. Put it another way - it's a very high risk system, right now.

 

As for the pitching, really, the only guy is Killian right now, IMO. He's what, a 60/55 guy right now, 4 pitches, can get to the mid-90's, solid command. I think that potentially has the makings of more than "just" a 3/4/5 guy.

 

Anyhow, admittedly, I haven't followed much in months. Probably a lot of changes I'm not aware of.

 

As for possible top 5 MVP level guys in our system, the three guys I'm looking at would be Hernandez, Triantos, Alcantara. That said, if we produce two Tier 1 starters out of our top guys right now, I'd be fairly pleased.

[CubinNY]

It's a very boom/bust system right now. ....

 

I'm not sure I see a lot of "boom", myself? A "boom" pitcher needs some combination of both stuff and command. We've got guys who can be major league contributors, but I'm not sure I'm seeing big "boom" guys? Do Killian or Wicks have the stuff to be "boom", versus 3-4-5 guys? Do Herz or Bain or Franklin have the control to "boom"?

 

Similar for hitters. Do I imagine any of our guys with the power-contact-defense profile to perhaps project as being in-consideration-for-top-5-MVP-guys? Maybe Hernandez will be, beats me. Maybe PCA will develop into a 15-20 HR guy and be really good. But many of the others just seem to have enough imperfections that while useful is within reach for some, "boom" seems relatively remote.

A lot of depth, but not a lot of star power.