Trade Happ?

[Cubswin11]

Another interesting thing to maybe do would be to trade Happ and sign Conforto after the deadline passes that no draft pick is lost. Add whatever for Happ to make the team better and deploy the money for an even better player.

[muntjack]

So we're at the point that we accept that the 2016 WS champions, playing in a mega-market, need another multi-year tear-down/ rebuild before being able to contend again?

 

Happ is 27 and since the beginning of last August (312 PAs) has a .390 wOBA. We are never going to field a complete team of Wander Franco hyper-phenoms. Figuring it out at 27 should be normalized (and I'm as guilty as anyone of fetishizing prospects). Sign the guy to an extension unless you get a ridiculous offer.

[Derwood]

So we're at the point that we accept that the 2016 WS champions, playing in a mega-market, need another multi-year tear-down/ rebuild before being able to contend again?

 

Do we have a choice?

[pitchcs]

I have seen at least two rumors involving trading Happ for prospects (Tigers and White Sox).

 

Should we? Is it too early? Only if the price is right?

 

Lol

[CyHawk_Cub]

I'm intrigued by the idea that quite a few smart fans sincerely think the Cubs can be legit contenders in 2023. What's gonna happen this season to make Ricketts spend more (didn't they have plenty of room under the CBT this past offseason too)? What can the Cubs even buy to make them legit contenders? Specifically, what pitching?

 

I had been assuming that Ricketts wouldn't open his wallet in a meaningful way until/unless a new young core appears. Maybe I'm way off on that...hopefully I am, because any such core is years away. I guess operating on a wing and a prayer is just the correct business model for a franchise with a top 3'ish fanbase size.

[jersey cubs fan]

So we're at the point that we accept that the 2016 WS champions, playing in a mega-market, need another multi-year tear-down/ rebuild before being able to contend again?

 

Needs got nothing to do with it.

[Backtobanks]

I'm intrigued by the idea that quite a few smart fans sincerely think the Cubs can be legit contenders in 2023. What's gonna happen this season to make Ricketts spend more (didn't they have plenty of room under the CBT this past offseason too)? What can the Cubs even buy to make them legit contenders? Specifically, what pitching?

 

I had been assuming that Ricketts wouldn't open his wallet in a meaningful way until/unless a new young core appears. Maybe I'm way off on that...hopefully I am, because any such core is years away. I guess operating on a wing and a prayer is just the correct business model for a franchise with a top 3'ish fanbase size.

 

I thought that they might be borderline contenders in 2024, but this situation is so bad that it's starting to look like 2026 is a safer bet.

[Bertz]

I'm intrigued by the idea that quite a few smart fans sincerely think the Cubs can be legit contenders in 2023. What's gonna happen this season to make Ricketts spend more (didn't they have plenty of room under the CBT this past offseason too)? What can the Cubs even buy to make them legit contenders? Specifically, what pitching?

 

I think there's an interesting conversation to be had about how what has transpired so far impacts the ability to compete in 2023. I have actually been thinking about this a lot this week. My initial thought was that things haven't yet gone well toward that end, but I think on the position player side at least it has.

 

The hit rate on the fungible guys hasn't helped. Of Schwindel, Ortega, Wisdom, Hermosillo, and Frazier, only Wisdom is showing that he's legit (Frazier needs more playing time though). You also have the disastrous month Madrigal has had, though he certainly gets much more runway (I'm also intrigued by the added exit velo).

 

On the other hand, while it's early each of Happ, Hoerner, and Suzuki have played like stars. And none of it seems especially flukey. Happ decided to trade some dongs for contact, Hoerner appears to have learned when to turn on a pitch, and Suzuki is holistically playing how we expected except for the large number of called strikes 3's (which is probably a temporary adjustment thing).

 

In terms of how it sets us up for next year, I'd rather have the Hoerner and Happ level-ups we've gotten than e.g. Schwindel and Ortega looking solid. It's MUCH easier to fill a hole than it is to upgrade from average to good.

 

The pitching is doing the opposite though. The walk year guys are almost all crushing it, but while that's great for the deadline it doesn't help 2023 (pending returns). The prospects with a 2023 ETA like Wicks and Herz are crushing it. But Steele and Alzolay are clearly not starters now (in Adbert's case I will vehemently argue that's purely for durability), and Hendricks hasn't bounced back. With the key exception of Kilian, the SP prospects we could reasonably see this year like Jensen and Espinoza are struggling. We might realistically go into the winter with 8-10 pitchers already on the MLB roster you feel good about, but only two of them being surefire starters (Stro and Kilian).

 

Add it all up and I think we're on a trajectory to be a big winter away from a good team next year. Maybe more goes wrong than goes right over the remaining five months. Maybe the mid market payrolls from the past two years are the new norm and not a temporary issue due to COVID and the changing of the guard. But I think the best set of assumptions are that the team next year will be of the quality that they're competing for a 3 or 4 seed.

[Bull]

I'm intrigued by the idea that quite a few smart fans sincerely think the Cubs can be legit contenders in 2023. What's gonna happen this season to make Ricketts spend more (didn't they have plenty of room under the CBT this past offseason too)? What can the Cubs even buy to make them legit contenders? Specifically, what pitching?

 

I had been assuming that Ricketts wouldn't open his wallet in a meaningful way until/unless a new young core appears. Maybe I'm way off on that...hopefully I am, because any such core is years away. I guess operating on a wing and a prayer is just the correct business model for a franchise with a top 3'ish fanbase size.

 

Heywards contract comes off after 2023. That’s the timeline for prospects as well. As in many will be given a chance to prove themselves in 2023 looking towards “seeing what we have in x” for 2024. Expect big spending once jHeys contract is off the books and they are confident what the holes are going forward.

[JeffH]

The idea of extending a not-exceptional corner outfielder is absolute insanity. Have we learned nothing?

[UK]

Yeah, I'm all for unloading him before having to pay fair market value for a role player.

 

If he wants to fluke his way to a 144 OPS+ at the deadline, even better.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The idea of extending a not-exceptional corner outfielder is absolute insanity. Have we learned nothing?

 

The Cubs have to put their money to good use if they're going to get back to being competitive. Between now and the likely end of a hypothetical Happ deal there's barely any players clearly superior to him that they'll want to try to keep(Hoerner and....). The FA classes for the foreseeable future are dire, look at the group with 4 or 5 in front of their name, with rare exception it's a bunch of guys who are worse than Happ, will be multiple years older than Happ upon reaching FA, or both. Extending Happ isn't the only way forward, but keeping an above average player that is useful in multiple contexts hitting FA before age 29 is very likely to be a good option compared to the other ways to spend the money.

[jersey cubs fan]

The idea of extending a not-exceptional corner outfielder is absolute insanity. Have we learned nothing?

 

The Cubs have to put their money to good use if they're going to get back to being competitive. .

It can not be any more clear that the Cubs have no interest or ability to be competitive for the next few years.

 

They were desperate for several starting pitchers this offseason and signed one, who is going to be traded. They got rid of several quality position players and brought back one. They had $100 million in disposable income they preferred to pocket.

 

They aren’t interested in winning baseball games. There is no point in keeping a decent player like Happ when your roster is trash and have no hope for contending.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The idea of extending a not-exceptional corner outfielder is absolute insanity. Have we learned nothing?

 

The Cubs have to put their money to good use if they're going to get back to being competitive. .

It can not be any more clear that the Cubs have no interest or ability to be competitive for the next few years.

 

They were desperate for several starting pitchers this offseason and signed one, who is going to be traded. They got rid of several quality position players and brought back one. They had $100 million in disposable income they preferred to pocket.

 

They aren’t interested in winning baseball games. There is no point in keeping a decent player like Happ when your roster is trash and have no hope for contending.

 

They spent 40 million AAV on three new SP, but that's besides the point. Your assumption is that they spent right up to their limit which was too low because ownership are cartoon villains, and not because of the part that you clipped out of my post, which is that free agency is increasingly a terrible option for team building, especially when you need to make large improvements from the current roster like they did from October 2021.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

The Cubs have to put their money to good use if they're going to get back to being competitive. .

It can not be any more clear that the Cubs have no interest or ability to be competitive for the next few years.

 

They were desperate for several starting pitchers this offseason and signed one, who is going to be traded. They got rid of several quality position players and brought back one. They had $100 million in disposable income they preferred to pocket.

 

They aren’t interested in winning baseball games. There is no point in keeping a decent player like Happ when your roster is trash and have no hope for contending.

 

They spent 40 million AAV on three new SP, but that's besides the point. Your assumption is that they spent right up to their limit which was too low because ownership are cartoon villains, and not because of the part that you clipped out of my post, which is that free agency is increasingly a terrible option for team building, especially when you need to make large improvements from the current roster like they did from October 2021.

They signed the one real guy and then trash pickups. The actual dollar value is nothing to anybody who pays attention to the business of sports. I realize your predilection to licking the boot but my god son, wake up to reality.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It can not be any more clear that the Cubs have no interest or ability to be competitive for the next few years.

 

They were desperate for several starting pitchers this offseason and signed one, who is going to be traded. They got rid of several quality position players and brought back one. They had $100 million in disposable income they preferred to pocket.

 

They aren’t interested in winning baseball games. There is no point in keeping a decent player like Happ when your roster is trash and have no hope for contending.

 

They spent 40 million AAV on three new SP, but that's besides the point. Your assumption is that they spent right up to their limit which was too low because ownership are cartoon villains, and not because of the part that you clipped out of my post, which is that free agency is increasingly a terrible option for team building, especially when you need to make large improvements from the current roster like they did from October 2021.

They signed the one real guy and then trash pickups. The actual dollar value is nothing to anybody who pays attention to the business of sports. I realize your predilection to licking the boot but my god son, wake up to reality.

 

lol okay man. I get it, you've got your arbitrary payroll number that qualifies as trying to win, and anything below that is complete abandonment of on field product. All actual spending that happens is explained as farming for trades until they meet that marker, regardless of how little sense that might actually make compared to more sensible explanations. It's just Ricketts anger all the way down regardless of topic or circumstance, your worldview has been made clear.

[Sammy Sofa]

Well, yeah; these owners want to explicitly run these teams like a business above all else, so people are going to be pissed when those businesses produce a willfully shitty product.

 

"Look, we know the food at our restaurant has been getting worse, so I'll tell you what I'm gonna do: I'm going to change distributers, but they'll be cheaper and the food will be worse, AND I'll keep raising prices. But make sure to buy plenty of gift certificates on the way out!"

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Well, yeah; these owners want to explicitly run these teams like a business above all else, so people are going to be pissed when those businesses produce a willfully horsefeathers product.

 

"Look, we know the food at our restaurant has been getting worse, so I'll tell you what I'm gonna do: I'm going to change distributers, but they'll be cheaper and the food will be worse, AND I'll keep raising prices. But make sure to buy plenty of gift certificates on the way out!"

 

Perfectly said, Sofa.

 

I was waaaay late to the party in realizing that most owners treat their teams as a business instead of a passion project. It's ridiculous that I didn't think about it that way for years. But now that I do, it's robbed me of my love of the Cubs and mostly sports in general. I'm not wasting my hobby time on the Ricketts family and certainly won't support them for being shitty at all aspects of life.

[CubinNY]

 

They spent 40 million AAV on three new SP, but that's besides the point. Your assumption is that they spent right up to their limit which was too low because ownership are cartoon villains, and not because of the part that you clipped out of my post, which is that free agency is increasingly a terrible option for team building, especially when you need to make large improvements from the current roster like they did from October 2021.

They signed the one real guy and then trash pickups. The actual dollar value is nothing to anybody who pays attention to the business of sports. I realize your predilection to licking the boot but my god son, wake up to reality.

 

lol okay man. I get it, you've got your arbitrary payroll number that qualifies as trying to win, and anything below that is complete abandonment of on field product. All actual spending that happens is explained as farming for trades until they meet that marker, regardless of how little sense that might actually make compared to more sensible explanations. It's just Ricketts anger all the way down regardless of topic or circumstance, your worldview has been made clear.

There were clear opportunities to upgrade in free agency. I honestly have no clue why the went after Suzuki and Stroman if they are choosing to surround them with replacements. The Cubs have 2 starting pitchers and Happ, Nico, Wilson and Suzuki. They are great at building a pen, but at some point their luck is going leave. They are intent on letting Wilson leave and the consensus seems to be to trade Happ.

 

They have no stars to trade and teams seem to be coveting prospect. As you noted, the FA market isn’t great. The team is on the road to at least three more years of awful on top of last year and this year.

 

Who else is to blame if not the Ricketts?

[Irrelevant Dude]

They have no stars to trade and teams seem to be coveting prospect. As you noted, the FA market isn’t great. The team is on the road to at least three more years of awful on top of last year and this year.

"At least" being the key qualifier here. There seems to be an assumption that the next Cubs core already exists and is just a few years away, but there is no guarantee of their current prospects materializing into anything. There are a lot of intriguing prospects in the system, but certainly no sure things.

 

If the only realistic path to building a winning team is to start with a core of young, team-controlled players, and if the Cubs current group of prospects doesn't develop into that core, then we're in for an extremely long period of mediocrity. With Happ being one of the few players on the major league roster who can bring talent to supplement the current prospect pool, trading him should absolutely be on the table, and sooner than later.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Irrelevant Dude

[Derwood]

Trade them all

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Start with Jed

[CubinNY]

Start with Jed

I'm on board with that. He seems to be at least complicit in all this. Then again, whoever they hire will be the same type as them.

[sneakypower]

Start with Jed

exactly this- watching the Brewers trajectory unfold, it becomes very crystal clear what an immense difference it makes to have a competent GM/pres vs. sub-replacement dullard

[UMFan83]

They signed the one real guy and then trash pickups. The actual dollar value is nothing to anybody who pays attention to the business of sports. I realize your predilection to licking the boot but my god son, wake up to reality.

 

lol okay man. I get it, you've got your arbitrary payroll number that qualifies as trying to win, and anything below that is complete abandonment of on field product. All actual spending that happens is explained as farming for trades until they meet that marker, regardless of how little sense that might actually make compared to more sensible explanations. It's just Ricketts anger all the way down regardless of topic or circumstance, your worldview has been made clear.

There were clear opportunities to upgrade in free agency. I honestly have no clue why the went after Suzuki and Stroman if they are choosing to surround them with replacements. The Cubs have 2 starting pitchers and Happ, Nico, Wilson and Suzuki. They are great at building a pen, but at some point their luck is going leave. They are intent on letting Wilson leave and the consensus seems to be to trade Happ.

 

They have no stars to trade and teams seem to be coveting prospect. As you noted, the FA market isn’t great. The team is on the road to at least three more years of awful on top of last year and this year.

 

Who else is to blame if not the Ricketts?

 

The Cubs last rebuild felt like it took forever but it only took 3 years after Theo took over to build a contender.

 

If you consider this year 1 - equivalent to 2012, lets look at what the Cubs had in assets by this point in the rebuild:

 

-On the major league team they had 1 cornerstone piece in Anthony Rizzo and a 2015 bullpen arm in Travis Wood.

-In the minors, only 2 of their top 40 prospects actually contributed to the 2015-2016 Cubs - Javy and Matt Szczur

-They had the pieces that would eventually be traded for Arrieta, Strop, Fowler, 1/2 of Addison Russell, Hendricks, Carl Edwards, Grimm and Neil Ramirez (probably missing some)

-Farm system was ranked around 15-20 in baseball

 

Curious to see how we compare with what we have right now. Obviously a bit hard to say because we don't know how guys like Davis will ultimately look in the majors and we have no idea what we can get for a lot of the veterans on the staff but it seems like we're in a similar position, maybe slightly better now. Definitely seems like another 2-3 years to get to the point of contention on the surface.