MLB Playoffs 2021

[soccer10k]

Aww boo hoo Brewers

 

Took a risk not starting Burnes on short rest and it didn't pay off.

[PackLandVA]

Aww boo hoo Brewers

 

Took a risk not starting Burnes on short rest and it didn't pay off.

 

Craig Counsell, always the smartest guy at the stadium.

[UMFan83]

Aww boo hoo Brewers

 

Took a risk not starting Burnes on short rest and it didn't pay off.

 

He’ll be well rested for Opening Day

[Bertz]

 

Also when do the Brewers regret that Yelich contract? $26 million a year for the next 7 years for a guy that hasn’t gotten his OPS over .800 the last 2 seasons

 

Wasn't there talk of some of Milwaukee's own 'home-cookin' hijinks' during the 2018 & 2019 seasons? I'm seem to recall Yelich's number being absurd at home, especially his power number those two seasons (22/14 & 27/17). Then the Astros got busted at the end of 2019 and remarkably, Yelich becomes worse, like horrible.

 

Honestly I think it's as simple as his gruesome knee injury. I don't know how you give a guy 9 figures without seeing him play post injury, especially when you have him under control for so long already (IIRC it was 3 tears remaining at the time).

[UMFan83]

Jeez Brewers fans are torching Yelich on their forum. I thought they’d be somewhat supportive but I guess not

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=65&t=41152&start=1400

[soccer10k]

Aww boo hoo Brewers

 

Took a risk not starting Burnes on short rest and it didn't pay off.

 

Craig Counsell, always the smartest guy at the stadium.

 

You could convince me either way on whether or not it was a good decision. Lauer had a 3.19 ERA this year so he wasn’t bad, though he wasn’t Burnes either. And we don’t know how Burnes would do on short rest, especially since the Brewers were pretty conservative with their pitchers this year. Ultimately, I say you go with your best. This was definitely the higher risk but higher reward choice. Brewers would be looking good right now had they won today and had a rested Burnes waiting for Game 5.

[fromthestretch]

 

Also when do the Brewers regret that Yelich contract? $26 million a year for the next 7 years for a guy that hasn’t gotten his OPS over .800 the last 2 seasons

 

Wasn't there talk of some of Milwaukee's own 'home-cookin' hijinks' during the 2018 & 2019 seasons? I'm seem to recall Yelich's number being absurd at home, especially his power number those two seasons (22/14 & 27/17). Then the Astros got busted at the end of 2019 and remarkably, Yelich becomes worse, like horrible.

 

Honestly I think it's as simple as his gruesome knee injury. I don't know how you give a guy 9 figures without seeing him play post injury, especially when you have him under control for so long already (IIRC it was 3 tears remaining at the time).

 

Hasn't he had a lot of back problems the past couple years, too? That might explain the massive drop in power.

[champaignchris]

i love how teams lose in the playoffs and it's always "only the beginning" for that team, according to their fans.

 

Looking at BR’s contracts pages for each team, all three of the White Sox, Cardinals and Brewers are projected to be at over $200MM in payroll heading into 2023.

[cl smooth]

 

[Sammy Sofa]

 

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Bertz]

i love how teams lose in the playoffs and it's always "only the beginning" for that team, according to their fans.

 

Yeah, this was the Sox best chance and they didn't get the job done.

 

Kind of like the Cubs at the start of the run everyone talks about their bats but it's the pitching that really made the team special. Meanwhile Rodon is a FA, Lynn will be 35 next year, and Cease hasn't shown what he did this year before. They're going to slide Kopech in, and that will help, but this rotation is going to regress a lot. It'll still be quite good, but there's really no place to go but down from #1.

 

Can the offense pick up the slack? You look at Robert, Eloy, and Vaughn and you probably think "Of Course!" but we all saw how assuming your guys will keep improving turns out. And even on this side of the ball, they have no 2B, and their 1B and C are starting to get pretty old.

 

I assume they still are willing to spend resources to do some stuff this winter, though likely nothing huge. So at that point you'd expect a slightly worse team next year? But then you have to think about the rest of the division. It's been complete horsefeathers the last few years, but that might not still be the case next year. The Twins and Tigers are expected to be pretty active this winter. The Indians and Royals will likely make a few moves, and have some significant help coming from the farm imminently. So even if the Sox hold serve talent-wise, it's not going to be nearly as easy next year.

 

They're not going to crash and burn, but they really needed to at least make some noise during these playoffs.

[squally1313]

i love how teams lose in the playoffs and it's always "only the beginning" for that team, according to their fans.

 

Yeah, this was the Sox best chance and they didn't get the job done.

 

Kind of like the Cubs at the start of the run everyone talks about their bats but it's the pitching that really made the team special. Meanwhile Rodon is a FA, Lynn will be 35 next year, and Cease hasn't shown what he did this year before. They're going to slide Kopech in, and that will help, but this rotation is going to regress a lot. It'll still be quite good, but there's really no place to go but down from #1.

 

Can the offense pick up the slack? You look at Robert, Eloy, and Vaughn and you probably think "Of Course!" but we all saw how assuming your guys will keep improving turns out. And even on this side of the ball, they have no 2B, and their 1B and C are starting to get pretty old.

 

I assume they still are willing to spend resources to do some stuff this winter, though likely nothing huge. So at that point you'd expect a slightly worse team next year? But then you have to think about the rest of the division. It's been complete horsefeathers the last few years, but that might not still be the case next year. The Twins and Tigers are expected to be pretty active this winter. The Indians and Royals will likely make a few moves, and have some significant help coming from the farm imminently. So even if the Sox hold serve talent-wise, it's not going to be nearly as easy next year.

 

They're not going to crash and burn, but they really needed to at least make some noise during these playoffs.

 

Eh. On the flip side, even a 'slightly worse' version of this team should carry the AL Central pretty easily. Can't assume full health from Robert and Eloy, but I'd take the over on the 520ish PAs they got combined this year. Vaughn and Sheets both have plenty of pedigree. The Madrigal/Kimbrel trade obviously hurts, especially if they can't teach one of these corner guys into a marginal second baseman, but Moncada can play there, so they can be flexible in who they target. Pitching will regress because it always does, but the offense should improve and there's a lot of margin for error the next few years that you feel pretty safe saying they'll have a few more shots at the playoff lottery.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think the way to say this is that this was the Sox equivalent of 2016 and they bowed out quickly in the DS instead of winning it all. They'll still have the talent and resources to be competitive, and your best teams aren't always the ones that win it all, but they won't have a better shot again unless something happens that is not the most likely outcome(Vaughn or Eloy become Edgar Martinez, they find a new Lynn, etc).

[squally1313]

I think the way to say this is that this was the Sox equivalent of 2016 and they bowed out quickly in the DS instead of winning it all. They'll still have the talent and resources to be competitive, and your best teams aren't always the ones that win it all, but they won't have a better shot again unless something happens that is not the most likely outcome(Vaughn or Eloy become Edgar Martinez, they find a new Lynn, etc).

I don't think you can necessarily take the Cubs 2016-2020 gradual decline and slap it onto the Sox though. They don't have a Heyward, they hopefully don't have a Russell, and they have 2 top 20 fWAR pitchers, ages 27 and 26, locked up for 2 and 4 years, even ignoring Lynn (and to a lesser extent Kopech). Why can't they be the 2017 (or 2015) Astros? Or even the 2015 Cubs?

 

And I guess it depends on how much weight you place on being among the best 2-3 teams in baseball, vs just being in a position to take as many shots at the post-wild card playoffs as possible. I think they're in a good spot to carry their division for a few years.

[UMFan83]

I think the way to say this is that this was the Sox equivalent of 2016 and they bowed out quickly in the DS instead of winning it all. They'll still have the talent and resources to be competitive, and your best teams aren't always the ones that win it all, but they won't have a better shot again unless something happens that is not the most likely outcome(Vaughn or Eloy become Edgar Martinez, they find a new Lynn, etc).

 

I also think, like many of us did, they are expecting their peak years to be in the future. Eloy and Robert are both 24, same age as Bryant, Javy and one year older than Schwarber in 2016. Not to say that they are going to decline and both of them have barely played an entire MLB seasons worth of games, but I see a lot of Sox fans talking about how they will continue to get better when this may be as good as they get. Tim Anderson is 28 too so he may be starting to decline soon.

 

Comparing the ages of key players on the 2016 Cubs and 2021 White Sox:

 

2016 Cubs (top 12 bWAR):

Bryant - 24

Rizzo - 26

Lester - 32

Hendricks - 26

Arrieta - 30

Fowler - 30

Russell - 22

Zobrist - 35

Baez - 23

McHorseface - 37

Contreras - 24

Schwarber - 23 (replacing Hammel who is 12th with him since he was injured most of the year)

AVERAGE: 27.7

 

2021 White Sox:

Lynn - 34

Rodon - 28

Anderson - 28

Giolito - 26

Moncada - 26

Grandal - 32

Robert - 24

Abreu - 34

Cease - 25

Hendriks - 32

Garcia - 30

Jiminez - 24 (replacing Engel who is 12th with him since he was injured most of the year)

AVERAGE: 28.6

 

 

They've already made 1 win now trade that gave up part of their stable of young players (Madrigal/Heuer) and their payroll is higher than its ever been historically (though average payroll has steadily risen so they may have some room). I also do not think they have any top 100 prospects anymore and historically haven't been a team that's been able to develop players outside of high draft picks/big IFA signings. The more I type this the more I can see some parallels to the Cubs, but without the WS title in the bank. While they can definitely still win a title, I don't think they are set up as well as Sox fans want to believe they are.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think the way to say this is that this was the Sox equivalent of 2016 and they bowed out quickly in the DS instead of winning it all. They'll still have the talent and resources to be competitive, and your best teams aren't always the ones that win it all, but they won't have a better shot again unless something happens that is not the most likely outcome(Vaughn or Eloy become Edgar Martinez, they find a new Lynn, etc).

I don't think you can necessarily take the Cubs 2016-2020 gradual decline and slap it onto the Sox though. They don't have a Heyward, they hopefully don't have a Russell, and they have 2 top 20 fWAR pitchers, ages 27 and 26, locked up for 2 and 4 years, even ignoring Lynn (and to a lesser extent Kopech). Why can't they be the 2017 (or 2015) Astros? Or even the 2015 Cubs?

 

And I guess it depends on how much weight you place on being among the best 2-3 teams in baseball, vs just being in a position to take as many shots at the post-wild card playoffs as possible. I think they're in a good spot to carry their division for a few years.

 

I don't think they'll have the Cubs specific decline, only that the most likely outcome is this is their best team of the competitive window. They may not have the specific components that led to the Cubs decline, but regression to the mean comes for everyone. Will they still be division favorites? Probably next year at the least. But it only takes one pop up team to knock you to the wild card if you aren't in that 'best 2-3 teams in MLB' tier(and sometimes even then like this year's dodgers), and even if they don't they still have to beat the best in the AL to win a title in all likelihood. If this sounds bearish it doesn't mean to be, I like the White Sox roster for the most part and think Hahn is capable of supplementing it further, but there's an actuarial reality, especially when it comes to pitching, and I think it's fair to question if they can replicate that for the foreseeable future.

[UMFan83]

Why can't they be the 2017 (or 2015) Astros? Or even the 2015 Cubs?

 

They can definitely be the 2015 Cubs or 2015 Astros, but as I mentioned in my last post, I don't think they are set up as well for the future as they hope they are. The 2015 Astros still had 4 top 100 prospects, the Cubs still had 5 (not including Eloy who didn't make it). The Sox have 0, and doing a quick google search saw one site rank their farm system 29th after this year's draft. Their payroll is already pretty high, though I don't think they have any Heyward like contracts so they have some maneuverability there. Their window is right now and maybe the next 2 years unless they hit on a high percentage of their moves, which they could. Like I was saying a few pages ago, the easy part is accumulating talent during a 4+ stretch of tanking. Expectations are low, you can afford to take risks, you have extra draft and IFA capital. The hard part begins now when you have the good team but need to not only make it better, but sustainable. Based on the state of their farm system, I'm not sure how sustainable it is. We'll see...I like their team overall.

 

Also I think the Tigers are the sleeping giants there. They have a top 5 farm system, a ton of money to spend and had an unexpectedly decent year.

Edited October 13, 2021 by UMFan83

[squally1313]

I think the way to say this is that this was the Sox equivalent of 2016 and they bowed out quickly in the DS instead of winning it all. They'll still have the talent and resources to be competitive, and your best teams aren't always the ones that win it all, but they won't have a better shot again unless something happens that is not the most likely outcome(Vaughn or Eloy become Edgar Martinez, they find a new Lynn, etc).

I don't think you can necessarily take the Cubs 2016-2020 gradual decline and slap it onto the Sox though. They don't have a Heyward, they hopefully don't have a Russell, and they have 2 top 20 fWAR pitchers, ages 27 and 26, locked up for 2 and 4 years, even ignoring Lynn (and to a lesser extent Kopech). Why can't they be the 2017 (or 2015) Astros? Or even the 2015 Cubs?

 

And I guess it depends on how much weight you place on being among the best 2-3 teams in baseball, vs just being in a position to take as many shots at the post-wild card playoffs as possible. I think they're in a good spot to carry their division for a few years.

 

I don't think they'll have the Cubs specific decline, only that the most likely outcome is this is their best team of the competitive window. They may not have the specific components that led to the Cubs decline, but regression to the mean comes for everyone. Will they still be division favorites? Probably next year at the least. But it only takes one pop up team to knock you to the wild card if you aren't in that 'best 2-3 teams in MLB' tier(and sometimes even then like this year's dodgers), and even if they don't they still have to beat the best in the AL to win a title in all likelihood. If this sounds bearish it doesn't mean to be, I like the White Sox roster for the most part and think Hahn is capable of supplementing it further, but there's an actuarial reality, especially when it comes to pitching, and I think it's fair to question if they can replicate that for the foreseeable future.

 

But doesn't the 'actuarial reality' come for every team? By that logic, won't the Astros be worse next year too? I get that pitching is more susceptible than offense, but this was still a 6th in offensive fWAR, 3rd in wRC team with every major piece coming back next year. I don't see why regression is a White Sox unique concept, and so if you set that aside, the core they have (Robert, Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Vaughn, Sheets, Gio, Cease, Kopech, plus the guys in their 30s), don't need to improve much on 6th best offensive team, best pitching (by fWAR) team to have as good a chance as anyone the next couple years.

[bukie]

3 months later, I still have no idea why the White Sox traded for Kimbrel. It wasn't a position of need, they weren't really blocking him from another close rival, and once they got him they used him about as poorly as possible. As I read somewhere recently, Kimbrel was the perfect TLR closer on a TLR team that never used him that way.

 

Add that to TLR basically torpedoing Yermin Mercedes early in the year, and you wonder what TLR really added to the team this year. He took a championship contender and led them to coasting to winning a division where nobody else tried, finishing with the worst division winner record in the AL to cost them an extra playoff home game, then showing one inning of life in 4 playoff games. I wasn't necessarily the biggest Renteria fan out there, but I think he could have managed to do that with less controversy.

[squally1313]

Why can't they be the 2017 (or 2015) Astros? Or even the 2015 Cubs?

 

They can definitely be the 2015 Cubs or 2015 Astros, but as I mentioned in my last post, I don't think they are set up as well for the future as they hope they are. The 2015 Astros still had 4 top 100 prospects, the Cubs still had 5 (not including Eloy who didn't make it). The Sox have 0, and doing a quick google search saw one site rank their farm system 29th after this year's draft. Their payroll is already pretty high, though I don't think they have any Heyward like contracts so they have some maneuverability there. Their window is right now and maybe the next 2 years unless they hit on a high percentage of their moves, which they could. Like I was saying a few pages ago, the easy part is accumulating talent during a 4+ stretch of tanking. Expectations are low, you can afford to take risks, you have extra draft and IFA capital. The hard part begins now when you have the good team but need to not only make it better, but sustainable. Based on the state of their farm system, I'm not sure how sustainable it is. We'll see...I like their team overall.

 

Also I think the Tigers are the sleeping giants there. They have a top 5 farm system, a ton of money to spend and had an unexpectedly decent year.

 

Fair points on the future help in the pipeline. Some of that is timing/qualification based, because at this point their future help depends a lot on Sheets, Vaughn, Burger developing and Kopech/Crochet taking off rotation spots, but not much in the pipeline after that. I just don't see a team that needs to get better, and I think they're pretty set up to maintain this level for a couple years at least, assuming they are comfortable with the arbitration costs continuing to rise.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think you can necessarily take the Cubs 2016-2020 gradual decline and slap it onto the Sox though. They don't have a Heyward, they hopefully don't have a Russell, and they have 2 top 20 fWAR pitchers, ages 27 and 26, locked up for 2 and 4 years, even ignoring Lynn (and to a lesser extent Kopech). Why can't they be the 2017 (or 2015) Astros? Or even the 2015 Cubs?

 

And I guess it depends on how much weight you place on being among the best 2-3 teams in baseball, vs just being in a position to take as many shots at the post-wild card playoffs as possible. I think they're in a good spot to carry their division for a few years.

 

I don't think they'll have the Cubs specific decline, only that the most likely outcome is this is their best team of the competitive window. They may not have the specific components that led to the Cubs decline, but regression to the mean comes for everyone. Will they still be division favorites? Probably next year at the least. But it only takes one pop up team to knock you to the wild card if you aren't in that 'best 2-3 teams in MLB' tier(and sometimes even then like this year's dodgers), and even if they don't they still have to beat the best in the AL to win a title in all likelihood. If this sounds bearish it doesn't mean to be, I like the White Sox roster for the most part and think Hahn is capable of supplementing it further, but there's an actuarial reality, especially when it comes to pitching, and I think it's fair to question if they can replicate that for the foreseeable future.

 

But doesn't the 'actuarial reality' come for every team? By that logic, won't the Astros be worse next year too? I get that pitching is more susceptible than offense, but this was still a 6th in offensive fWAR, 3rd in wRC team with every major piece coming back next year. I don't see why regression is a White Sox unique concept, and so if you set that aside, the core they have (Robert, Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Vaughn, Sheets, Gio, Cease, Kopech, plus the guys in their 30s), don't need to improve much on 6th best offensive team, best pitching (by fWAR) team to have as good a chance as anyone the next couple years.

 

Yes, but they needed a 2016 Cubs level of good outcomes to be the 7th best team in MLB(beating 9th by a game), and they don't have the financial resources of many of those teams to stay there nor the farm system(Fangraphs has the Sox system as 30th by a non-trivial margin) to keep up on that axis. And again, the implication isn't that the Sox are doomed, I like lots of their players and I'd be surprised if they don't have multiple other playoff appearances in the next 3-5 years. But in terms of the probability of winning a championship, I don't think those teams will be as strong as this year, similar to how the 2017-2020 Cubs turned out to not be as strong as 2016.

[squally1313]

 

I don't think they'll have the Cubs specific decline, only that the most likely outcome is this is their best team of the competitive window. They may not have the specific components that led to the Cubs decline, but regression to the mean comes for everyone. Will they still be division favorites? Probably next year at the least. But it only takes one pop up team to knock you to the wild card if you aren't in that 'best 2-3 teams in MLB' tier(and sometimes even then like this year's dodgers), and even if they don't they still have to beat the best in the AL to win a title in all likelihood. If this sounds bearish it doesn't mean to be, I like the White Sox roster for the most part and think Hahn is capable of supplementing it further, but there's an actuarial reality, especially when it comes to pitching, and I think it's fair to question if they can replicate that for the foreseeable future.

 

But doesn't the 'actuarial reality' come for every team? By that logic, won't the Astros be worse next year too? I get that pitching is more susceptible than offense, but this was still a 6th in offensive fWAR, 3rd in wRC team with every major piece coming back next year. I don't see why regression is a White Sox unique concept, and so if you set that aside, the core they have (Robert, Moncada, Eloy, Anderson, Vaughn, Sheets, Gio, Cease, Kopech, plus the guys in their 30s), don't need to improve much on 6th best offensive team, best pitching (by fWAR) team to have as good a chance as anyone the next couple years.

 

Yes, but they needed a 2016 Cubs level of good outcomes to be the 7th best team in MLB(beating 9th by a game), and they don't have the financial resources of many of those teams to stay there nor the farm system(Fangraphs has the Sox system as 30th by a non-trivial margin) to keep up on that axis. And again, the implication isn't that the Sox are doomed, I like lots of their players and I'd be surprised if they don't have multiple other playoff appearances in the next 3-5 years. But in terms of the probability of winning a championship, I don't think those teams will be as strong as this year, similar to how the 2017-2020 Cubs turned out to not be as strong as 2016.

 

But they didn't get the 2016 Cubs level of good outcomes right? Their team, by advanced statistics (total fWAR), was the best team in the AL this year, and 3rd overall. And then they lost to a 'worse' team. Maybe we're just splitting hairs on percentages (and maybe I'm just bored at work), but just replicating their level of play should give them as good a shot as any non-Dodgers team next year, and I think the room for improvement at least comes close to balancing out the expected step backs.

 

Essentially, I don't think this is a 'the playoffs are a different animal and they don't have the resources to take the next step' situation as much as it's a 'the playoffs are a crapshoot and once you get to 8 teams you probably have between a 10% and 15% chance of winning it all, thank god the Cubs won one of their dice rolls' situation.

[TruffleShuffle]

[Irrelevant Dude]

The Giants are getting screwed with this zone.

[squally1313]

This is simultaneously extremely fun to watch and profoundly unfair that an essentially 6 month battle for being the best team in baseball will come down to a few innings (and infield singles like that) to earn the right to enter two more slightly weighted coin flips.