2021 Offseason Thread

[Backtobanks]

Here's my issue with Bryant - he isn't really a superstar (depending on how you define that term), and hasn't been for some years (2017 was probably his last elite season). He give you a lot of value due to his versatility, but he isn't a huge producer, misses time, and his performance takes a huge hit when he is nicked up. And he's about to turn 30.

 

I'll always love the guy, but any contract for him has to be reasonable. Even for the past couple years, the prospect of extending him made me a little uneasy.

 

The thing with Bryant's FA contract is that it's been set up since Day 1 to be a steal even at 9 figures and 5+ years solely on him reaching FA at 30. It's been the topic with him for half a decade+ now, would be a topic whether he was coming off a 10 or no WAR season, and meanwhile all he did during his pre-FA years was: win basically every player award possible from NCAA-MLB, put up ~32 fWAR during his pre-FA years (basically half a HOF career, 3/4 of a Hall of Badass Players career), win the league MVP on a WS winning team that basically start to finished as the best all around team in baseball (won that MVP in a unique fashion too playing 5-6 different positions), missed the playoffs once, etc etc etc...The one real blemish on his baseball resume, the 60 game covid 2020, requires some real soullessness to take at face value

 

The durability knocks are too flimsy for my tastes too. He's played 87% of the games during his 6 162 game seasons, and GP somewhat undersells the # of PAs he's taken in that span (he's 32nd in GP since coming up, 24th in PAs)...This is before the DH gets to the NL, which proooobably is coming during his career maybe even this next CBA, and opens up yet another position his offense plays

 

I totally agree that they need talent (and KB is talented), but they're still woefully weak in the positions mentioned.

 

Another thing that bugs me about how Kris Bryant remaining a Cub often gets portrayed: it's not an ultimatum between Kris Bryant and building a complete team. It really *should* work the other way around at this stage anyway: if Yusei Kikuchi or Kyle Schwarber at 8 figures stops you from signing a legitimately great player for 9 figures then skip on the 8 figure player. Bryant's versatility keeps a guy like Kyle Seager, a likely cheap due to age LHH with experience at all the non-1B infield positions coming off a 35 HR season with SafeCo as the home park, in play. There's no real reason (outside of understandable pessimism) to think Bryant really takes them out any other high impact FAs right now

 

Unfortunately, you aren't the guy making financial decisions about the Cubs. We can all build the Cubs into winners next year if money doesn't get in the way.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Mooney with some good stuff behind the scenes of Stroman's signing: https://theathletic.com/3005814/2021/12/09/how-the-cubs-closed-a-buzzer-beater-deal-with-marcus-stroman-before-mlbs-lockout/

 

In this case, Stroman instructed his agent, Brodie Scoffield of Tidal Sports Group, to only bring him pertinent information from teams with serious interest. During negotiations, Stroman wasn’t obsessed with hearing all the details behind every move on the chessboard. The Cubs checked in shortly after the end of the World Series, but they were casting a wide net, moving deliberately and unwilling to go five years on a contract with any pitcher this offseason. Though the levels of interest varied from preliminary inquiries to the ultimate offer that Stroman couldn’t refuse, the group of teams in contact included the Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Giants, Padres and Astros, a field tipped off by tweets from MLB Trade Rumors founder Tim Dierkes and Stroman himself in late November.

 

A frenzied Thanksgiving break forced the Cubs to reassess their initial strategy of waiting to see the final details of the new labor deal and processing how those changes would impact future payrolls and rosters. Scoffield, who also represents Kevin Gausman, had a unique view of the market for starting pitchers. Gausman signed a five-year, $110 million contract with the Blue Jays that was announced Dec. 1. The same day, the Mets announced Max Scherzer’s three-year, $130 million deal. The day before, the Mariners finalized their five-year, $115 million contract with Robbie Ray, who had declined a qualifying offer that kept the Cubs out of his negotiations. Draft-pick compensation also ruled out Noah Syndergaard; otherwise, his one-year, $21 million contract with the Angels would have lined up well for the Cubs.

 

The Giants cleared out almost an entire aisle of starting pitchers by signing Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Cobb and Alex Wood to deals that will last two or three years and range from $20 million to $36 million. The Cubs were comfortable with a three-year deal for Steven Matz but not prepared to extend the four-year, $44 million commitment the Cardinals made to the left-handed pitcher. To Hoyer, this felt more like a trade deadline than the typical courtship during free agency.

 

I don't want to read between the lines too much, but making the distinction that they were unwilling to go 5 years for any *pitcher* is interesting in light of the potential interest in Correa(who admittedly will probably get far more than 5 years). That also could explain how some of the other pitchers came off the market without much Cubs noise even if interested, since the Cubs were not at all interested in a 5 year deal and may have been assuming any deal for guys like Gausman or Gray that came pre-lockout would probably be going that extra year to get them to sign early.

[Backtobanks]

Unfortunately, you aren't the guy making financial decisions about the Cubs. We can all build the Cubs into winners next year if money doesn't get in the way.

 

Why this dead end every single time? Somehow all the money seemingly magically disappears anytime a player better than a reclamation pitcher or DH trying to play defense gets mentioned! What are the rules? Also I'd respectfully disagree with that last claim based off of nothing anyone's said anyway

 

 

I'm going by what the Cubs have said about spending and what all of the sportswriters have reported - basically the Cubs aren't going to spend big or long term until they are closer to be seriously competitive. The money hasn't "magically disappeared", it's just that Ricketts has decided to tighten the purse strings and it's his money we're talking about. We could have filled all of the holes if Ricketts decided to go all in by spending top money for 2 or 3 starters, a top SS, and a power LH bat instead of looking for short-term fixes.

[CoolHandLuke]

After the Stroman signing, I was hoping this guy would lay low for a while.

[Bertz]

 

The big thing here is that the Cubs are mostly done with the rotation. Sounds like they'll add a flier but probably no one else that would definitely own a rotation spot. I think that's the right call. I know I've been the most vocal "let the kids play" guy with the rotation since the start of the offseason, but aside from Rodon (whose medicals are probably a disaster given the Sox actions) I'm not sure there's anyone out there I'd rather have in FA than just letting Mills/Steele/Kilian fight for a spot. Probably Yusei Kikuchi, but he's getting a 3 year deal based on last reporting.

 

It is interesting that three starters seemed like a given, and now it's two. I'm wondering if that's because Stroman's such a rock, or because they've found an opportunity to reallocate ~$10M elsewhere. Say it became a lot more realistic to sign a $35M/year shortstop instead of a $25M/year one?

 

The infield defense is the other biggy talked about. 3B isn't really talked about, but it really feels like adding a shortstop (even just Jose Iglesias) AND adding Kyle Seager sure feels inevitable?

[Tim]

I agree that Kyle Seager feels like the single most obvious addition out there. Would love to get him & Story combined for around the same 2022 cost as Correa and a significantly shorter commit.

 

I hadn't seen that Kikuchi is likely to get a three year deal. That's a hard pass for me. I loved him as a one year deal, don't like him at two, and don't want any part of a three year deal.

[CubinNY]

I Would love to get him [seager] & Story combined.

 

I'd be over the moon.

[jersey cubs fan]

Relying on Stroman, Miley and Hendricks as your top three and letting the merry band of misfits on the roster already fight for the other 4+ spots necessary to fill out a major league rotation over the course of a season does not seem wise to me. None of these guys is a workhorse. You aren't getting nearly enough innings out of them to risk the rest of the rotation to that group. I feel like it's destined that one of those three is going to pitch well under 150 innings, and none of them is going to be able to make up for it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Relying on Stroman, Miley and Hendricks as your top three and letting the merry band of misfits on the roster already fight for the other 4+ spots necessary to fill out a major league rotation over the course of a season does not seem wise to me. None of these guys is a workhorse. You aren't getting nearly enough innings out of them to risk the rest of the rotation to that group. I feel like it's destined that one of those three is going to pitch well under 150 innings, and none of them is going to be able to make up for it.

 

I understand the sentiment here, but at the same time those 3 were 16th, 25th, and 37th in IP last year, and 26th, 35th, and 52nd in 2019. Yes there is no prime Lester/Arrieta workhorse you can count on for 32 starts of 6 innings, but that's partially because that pitcher is going extinct, 6 pitchers had 400 IP from 2018-19, and 4 hit 450 IP from 2019-2021. I'm not sure if there's a current rotation better equipped from an innings perspective to handle back end uncertainty right now. I'd feel better if they added someone else of significance, but on the list of the team's problems it's no longer near the top.

[Bertz]

Relying on Stroman, Miley and Hendricks as your top three and letting the merry band of misfits on the roster already fight for the other 4+ spots necessary to fill out a major league rotation over the course of a season does not seem wise to me. None of these guys is a workhorse. You aren't getting nearly enough innings out of them to risk the rest of the rotation to that group. I feel like it's destined that one of those three is going to pitch well under 150 innings, and none of them is going to be able to make up for it.

 

I understand the sentiment here, but at the same time those 3 were 16th, 25th, and 37th in IP last year, and 26th, 35th, and 52nd in 2019. Yes there is no prime Lester/Arrieta workhorse you can count on for 32 starts of 6 innings, but that's partially because that pitcher is going extinct, 6 pitchers had 400 IP from 2018-19, and 4 hit 450 IP from 2019-2021. I'm not sure if there's a current rotation better equipped from an innings perspective to handle back end uncertainty right now. I'd feel better if they added someone else of significance, but on the list of the team's problems it's no longer near the top.

 

I think too, the team's specific circumstances make rolling with the in house options a much more defensible choice than it has been in prior years

 

On the personnel side, there are FAR more options than were available through most of the Theo era. Alzolay projects as a better than league average starter, and Steele/Kilian project at roughly average. None of the three are going to give you a full set of innings though obviously. Alzolay can probably give you 150ish, Kilian the same but some of those will obviously be at Iowa, and maybe 120 from Steele?

 

Mills and Thompson project south of average, but north of replacement level. I imagine Mills will be the 6th starter, and Thompson will be a two inning reliever who gets stretched out if things break right. But they're quality depth that any non-superteam would be happy with. It'd be ideal if Mills had another MiLB option, but it helps that the other four names I've mentioned so far do.

 

There's also the non-Kilian starters in the upper minors. None of these guys should specifically be counted on, even as depth. But in aggregate they have enough prospect pedigree and more importantly there's enough of them that you probably get a viable option or two in the second half. Anyone who tells you whether that will be Espinoza or Jensen or Marquez with any degree of certainty is lying.

 

Personnel aside, I think the other key fact is that the team isn't balling out this year. Even if Jed adds Correa/Story, Seager, and a couple relievers, the team projects out to ~85 wins? This is a bridge year. So while you certainly shouldn't punt anywhere, and the Stroman signing alleviates my worries that Jed was going to,

you also don't go out and load up on vets to minimize downside risk like we might have done in ~2017. I'm sure guys like Matthew Boyd or Martin Perez have a higher realistic floor than Justin Steele, but probably not by as much as you'd think and they certainly have less upside (likely short term and definitely long term). That's more of a move for when you're trying to make sure the ground doesn't give out underneath your 95 win team IMO.

[Backtobanks]

I still think a deal for Merrill Kelly makes a lot of sense. It would solidify the rotation for a couple of years at a low cost both in prospects and dollars.

[Cubswin11]

The scouting and lab guys would have to think they could tweak something. But Vince Velasquez has a profile of the velo add if they think there’s a tweak to be made. He has one of best FBs of SPs in MLB and uses it a ton, he’s had some okay years. He throws a cutter/slider, change/sinker and curve. Maybe there’s one he needs to scrap/mix up the usage more.

[Tim]

Cubs signed Mark Leiter Jr. to a minor league deal. This looks like a really nice depth signing. Hell, his Steamer projection would be our 2nd or 3rd best starter.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mark-leiter/15551/stats?position=P

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/12/16/chicago-cubs-sign-mark-leiter-jr-to-a-minor-league-deal/

[Backtobanks]

Cubs signed Mark Leiter Jr. to a minor league deal. This looks like a really nice depth signing. Hell, his Steamer projection would be our 2nd or 3rd best starter.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/mark-leiter/15551/stats?position=P

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/12/16/chicago-cubs-sign-mark-leiter-jr-to-a-minor-league-deal/

 

Good move for depth, but the Hoyer quotes about being finished with the rotation is worrisome. One more solid rotation piece would certainly go a long way toward respectability.

[Tryptamine]

Zero interest in Kiermaier. That OF's offensive production could be historically awful if Happ is the Happ he was for the vast majority of 2021.

[JeffH]

I'll take Kiermaier and his contract if they give us Taylor Walls.

[Tryptamine]

I'll take Kiermaier and his contract if they give us Taylor Walls.

 

If it's a Hosmer type deal, then sure, but taking on his contract or giving up prospect capital? Definitely not.

[Cubswin11]

Kiermaier sucks and is especially sucky for the roster and his profile unless they’re getting a decent prospect(s) back.

[Bear Cub]

Kiermaier's brother is the Cubs head grounds keeper. Just sayin.

[UMFan83]

[Ding Dong Johnson]

This is obviously a continuation of Seinfeld where Wilhelm has retired and George finally got the Mets job.

[Derwood]

 

Showalter is 65 years old

 

Showalter is 12 years younger than Tony LaRussa

[Cubswin11]

Kiermaier's brother is the Cubs head grounds keeper. Just sayin.

[Bertz]

 

I've never seen McNeil play 3B, but I'm guessing from all the run JD Martinez has gotten at the position the last few years tells me all I need to know. That said, if he's a reasonable option at the position he fits the Cubs' roster like a glove.

[Tryptamine]

 

I've never seen McNeil play 3B, but I'm guessing from all the run JD Martinez has gotten at the position the last few years tells me all I need to know. That said, if he's a reasonable option at the position he fits the Cubs' roster like a glove.

 

Zero interest in McNeil with all the locker room problems he brings.