2021 Offseason Thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Some interesting details from Sharma, and everyone's favorite word of the day "nimble" gets a heavy workout: https://theathletic.com/2994323/2021/12/02/why-marcus-stroman-made-sense-for-the-cubs-who-arent-shifting-their-plans-for-the-offseason/?source=emp_shared_article

 

The Cubs are not where they were in the offseason prior to 2015. Outside of Brennen Davis, their most intriguing prospects are at the lower levels of the minors. They see teams like Seattle and Detroit as having acted accordingly in the market prior to the lockout. Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert have already arrived in the big leagues for the Mariners and Julio Rodríguez is knocking on the door. The Tigers have Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, both viewed as future stars who have already reached Triple A. The Cubs believe those are the types of teams who should be handing out long-term contracts and setting the market at the top.

 

The Cubs viewed Max Scherzer as the top pitcher on the market, but that wasn’t a bidding war they were getting involved in. Stroman was right in line with the next tier in their view, having different skill sets but on the same level as Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman. That tier was where the Cubs focused their attention. They were never in on Ray, who received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, meaning the Cubs would have lost their second-round pick had they signed him. They were on the periphery with Gausman, but going five years, as Toronto did, just wasn’t something they were eager to do for a pitcher right now.

 

The next group below included Steven Matz, Jonathan Gray, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani. The Cubs were heavily involved with Matz, but were unwilling to go to four years. Gray was never a real target. Wood and Cobb came off the market so quickly that it was hard to get deeply involved.

 

 

Ultimately, the addition of Stroman shows the Cubs are willing to spend, something that many had begun to doubt after the last few offseasons of inactivity. And while they adjusted their thinking due to how the market was moving, their overall plans for the offseason and the direction of the club remain the same. They’re looking for deals that make sense to them and to their timeline.

 

For Hoyer and the Cubs, it’s less about spending money right now — they’re perfectly comfortable handing out the $25 million AAV they gave Stroman — and more about being careful with the years they commit to. The length of Stroman’s deal tips their hand a bit as to what they really view as when they’ll once again emerge as a team willing to give out the true monster deals and shop at the very top of free agency. Perhaps after 2023, they’ll be in on Shohei Ohtani, or after 2024, they’ll be the favorite to land Juan Soto. But for now, they’ll continue to seek out deals they view as smart and perhaps take advantage of if they believe the rest of the market is undervaluing someone.

 

That doesn’t mean Carlos Correa — or another big-name free agent still available — has no shot at coming to Chicago once the lockout ends. It just means that player’s market has to fit the Cubs’ current plans. Hoyer wants to make sure his organization can stay nimble and financially flexible going forward.

[JeffH]

The way to appeal to Correa is to enthusiastically offer him an opt out, with the contract front loaded in his favor. If other teams decline to do that, so much the better.

 

$280/8. 40-40-40-opt out-32-32-32-32-32

 

Massage the numbers as you see fit. If you get him in the door and he indicates a desire to opt out, you have an opportunity to retain him.

[Backtobanks]

I'm guessing a big focus for the Cubs will be left-handed bats coming out of the lockout. Looking at their projected position players the only players who can hit lefty are Deichmann, Heyward, Alcantara, Ortega and Happ. Thats....pretty rough. While I'd happily take Correa, he doesn't help in that department and neither does Castellanos.

 

Some options, not ranked by how realistic:

 

Schwarber

Rizzo

Conforto

Kyle Seager

Eddie Rosario

Villar

 

Or maybe we'll see Joc Jams Vol 2

 

I thought about Villar as a cheap possibility for LH bat/platoon SS/3b, but the question is whether it's worth taking his offensive prowess as opposed to his defensive weaknesses.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here's a hypothetical I've been ignoring for what I thought were good reasons, but now feel is worth revisiting. What if the FO is comfortable with the current SS options and is treating a Correa/Story addition as a luxury? In order for that to be true in a world where they added Miley and Stroman, they probably need to be comfortable with their defense, is there an argument for that?

 

To test that out, here's a quick look at the options with their defensive metrics, Fangraphs scouting grades, and recent comments from Fangraphs prospect list. In both of these cases, there is a limited MLB sample(those numbers above are career numbers), so we don't want to draw too many sweeping conclusions.

 

 

For Hoerner, the scouting was more lukewarm on his potential defense at middle infield, though his speed is noteworthy as it could help him exceed expectations. By all accounts he's been excellent at 2B defensively, and at SS in a more limited sample he's been a shade above average. While I don't want to assume that Hoerner will exceed his scouting grades, there's no numerical proof he won't and past precedent exists with players like DeJong who don't have loud defensive tools but still put up strong numbers.

 

Alcantara is a bit more straight forward, as the scouting consensus is his glove and especially arm at SS would carry his MLB future. His metrics at SS are consistent with that evaluation as well, and the sample at 2B is small enough that it seems more likely to be noise than a sign that his scouting report and SS performance are wrong.

 

The other thing that sticks in my head is how these two could help get the best out of each other and the current roster. Alcantara's big concern is if he can hit enough to be a big leaguer, and being a switch hitter who is much better from the left side complements Hoerner nicely. To that end, Alcantara had a near league average bat against RHP last year, and while Hoerner has had reverse splits so far, I wouldn't bank on that going forward. Hoerner sliding to 2B in late innings for Madrigal also would help maximize the value from those three.

 

I want to be clear that this isn't my preferred outcome, given the lack of high minors alternatives and the options available it makes sense to me to go big on Correa/Story. There may be roster crunch issues in carrying Alcantara too, so even if they miss on the big fish I'd be aggressive in exploring the trade market. But if that doesn't happen, I think running it back might be more palatable than some of the bottom of the barrel FA options that remain.

[UMFan83]

This is pretty crazy re: Hermosillo:

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/12/03/so-heres-what-happened-with-michael-hermosillos-weird-roster-journey-this-week/

 

On the day of the deadline, the Cubs reached out to Hermosillo to let him know that they had officially decided to non-tender him because of the roster implications we discussed, but that they did hope to re-sign him on a minor league deal with every intention of giving him an opportunity to make the big league team. Hermosillo decided to give the decision a little time, and that proved very wise.

 

By the next morning, his agent had received interest from seven or eight other big league teams, including the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were particularly interested. Their offer was also of the minor league variety, but it came with a multi-hour presentation to his agent on how much they believed in him and the many different ways they could use him as soon as next season, including at first base (Hermosillo was an infielder back in high school). It also came with a call straight from Andrew Friedman, expanding on the Dodgers interest. Yo. That’s some serious love right there from a very smart man running a very smart and successful team.

 

Well, Hermosillo’s camp kept the Cubs in the loop, and evidently the added external pressure pushed the Cubs into their decision to extend him a big league offer. The rest, as they say, is history. Now, Hermosillo will head into camp with a big league offer – and the not inconsequential benefits that come with that distinction – and a slightly better chance to break camp with the Cubs.

 

If the Dodgers had that type of interest, that's a good sign even though it looks like they weren't willing to offer him a major league deal.

[Backtobanks]

An article on cubinsider.com brought up the idea of Vogelbach as a possibility. He would offer a power LH bat at DH/platoon 1B and is certainly affordable on a short term deal.

[Derwood]

An article on cubinsider.com brought up the idea of Vogelbach as a possibility. He would offer a power LH bat at DH/platoon 1B and is certainly affordable on a short term deal.

 

[JeffH]

Vogelbach sucks. No offense to him personally.

 

Just put Alfonso Rivas into spots where he can be successful.

[Backtobanks]

Vogelbach sucks. No offense to him personally.

 

Just put Alfonso Rivas into spots where he can be successful.

 

Rivas is a decent option to keep on the team, but offers no power.

[Bertz]

Vogelbach sucks. No offense to him personally.

 

Just put Alfonso Rivas into spots where he can be successful.

 

Offensively I actually like Vogelbach's fit on the roster. I just don't think it's workable defensively. With the Gomes addition meaning Contreras probably DH's one or two days a week, plus the huge number of outfielders on the roster, I don't think a pure 1B fits on the roster. Rivas is nice because he has minor league options, so he can come up after someone gets hurt or gets sent down for sucking.

 

Hoerner and Wisdom are the only guys on the roster who can play the left side of the infield. The team currently has two hitters to add, and I think one needs to be a surefire starter at 3B/SS and the other needs to be able to at least moonlight there.

[Rob]

A fun, random note that involves a former Cub: Boston gave Rich Hill a 1 year contract. It is the *seventh* time they've signed him to a deal.

 

I still hate Lou Piniella for ruining him.

 

Hill was a young lefty with a crazy curve coming off a very solid season. But Lou had absolutely no interest in letting him work out his control issues on the field. Every time he'd walk a single batter, Lou would start warming somebody up in the pen. Nobody in their right mind could have ever thought putting that kind of pressure on a kid going through some control issues could be helpful.

[Backtobanks]

Vogelbach sucks. No offense to him personally.

 

Just put Alfonso Rivas into spots where he can be successful.

 

Offensively I actually like Vogelbach's fit on the roster. I just don't think it's workable defensively. With the Gomes addition meaning Contreras probably DH's one or two days a week, plus the huge number of outfielders on the roster, I don't think a pure 1B fits on the roster. Rivas is nice because he has minor league options, so he can come up after someone gets hurt or gets sent down for sucking.

 

Hoerner and Wisdom are the only guys on the roster who can play the left side of the infield. The team currently has two hitters to add, and I think one needs to be a surefire starter at 3B/SS and the other needs to be able to at least moonlight there.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but I think Contreras will be traded. As mentioned earlier, Villar fits if you can live with his defense.

[Bertz]

 

I didn't realize Duffy's injury was so severe. He was my choice for the other starter to add this winter, but this cools me on him a lot.

 

Because we do now have depth at SP, I'd still much rather have good-but-fragile Duffy over some of the pure innings eater types. But I think I'd now rather have Richards and Kikuchi among the second tier starters.

[CubinNY]

This is so boring. Can't we lock them in a room and tell them to knock on the door when they have an agreement?

[Bertz]

 

Given the need at 3B and the staff's groundball rate now with Stroman on board, Seager seems like a fait accompli

[Derwood]

This is so boring. Can't we lock them in a room and tell them to knock on the door when they have an agreement?

 

Neither side has any incentive to concede right now.

[Cubswin11]

[The_Achiever]

I wanted Javy back and KB would be another great fit (although KB would fit great on just about every team).

 

I was surprised he didn't sign before 12/1, but I guess that makes sense with how Boras rolls.

[muntjack]

I'll have Schwarber, as well.

[Backtobanks]

Someone else connected Bryant to the Cubs last week:

 

 

Make it happen please

 

As much as we would all love a reunion with KB, he doesn't seem to fit what the team needs (SP, SS, LH power, etc.). Also, he would probably want a long-term contract (6 years).

[Bertz]

 

Welp, scratch him off the list?

[Thusly Boned]

I'll have Schwarber, as well.

 

I think Schwarbs is the best fit of all reunion candidates at this point (assuming the universal DH).

[Thusly Boned]

As much as we would all love a reunion with KB, he doesn't seem to fit what the team needs (SP, SS, LH power, etc.). Also, he would probably want a long-term contract (6 years).

 

The team’s biggest needs are still players who don’t suck, ideally superstars like Bryant. This team is most definitely not a couple niche-y signings off of being competitive, the big need is talent

 

Here's my issue with Bryant - he isn't really a superstar (depending on how you define that term), and hasn't been for some years (2017 was probably his last elite season). He give you a lot of value due to his versatility, but he isn't a huge producer, misses time, and his performance takes a huge hit when he is nicked up. And he's about to turn 30.

 

I'll always love the guy, but any contract for him has to be reasonable. Even for the past couple years, the prospect of extending him made me a little uneasy.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm fine with gambling on Bryant's production/injury risk, that's the type of risk you need to take on. I'd also challenge the idea that star upside isn't there, he played at a 5 win level in 2019 and was doing so again in 2021 until he went to SF, any contract he's likely to sign isn't going to require him to be an MVP candidate to be worthwhile. I also think his risks will keep his market from being too much of a runaway.

 

That said, he strikes me as the type of player where someone eventually gets desperate enough and gives that extra year or little bit of AAV to make it happen, and I don't think the Cubs are at all likely to be that team. I also agree that he isn't an ideal fit for the roster(LH hitting has to come from somewhere) so even though his versatility makes it easy to avoid being boxed in by his contract, it's not the cleanest fit.

[Backtobanks]

As much as we would all love a reunion with KB, he doesn't seem to fit what the team needs (SP, SS, LH power, etc.). Also, he would probably want a long-term contract (6 years).

 

The team’s biggest needs are still players who don’t suck, ideally superstars like Bryant. This team is most definitely not a couple niche-y signings off of being competitive, the big need is talent

 

I totally agree that they need talent (and KB is talented), but they're still woefully weak in the positions mentioned.