2021 Offseason Thread

[Post Count Padder]

Hmm

 

 

I bet the Cubs offered him 3 years $21 million :lol:

Is 3/21 the new 3/15?

He's no Ryan Sweeney

[Post Count Padder]

We also re-signed Hermosillo.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Hmm

 

 

I bet the Cubs offered him 3 years $21 million :lol:

:lol:

[Tim]

We also re-signed Hermosillo.

Nice. Iowa is going to have a lot of outfielders.

[Tim]

Never mind - apparently Hermosillo signed a major league contract. I guess Chicago is going to have a lot of outfielders next year

[Bertz]

I don't understand what happened with Hermosillo the past few days. I assume some esoteric procedural thing only Arizona Phil understands?

[Cubswin11]

Never mind - apparently Hermosillo signed a major league contract. I guess Chicago is going to have a lot of outfielders next year

Hopefully Happ is gone

[d_money]

Never mind - apparently Hermosillo signed a major league contract. I guess Chicago is going to have a lot of outfielders next year

Hopefully Happ is gone

Let’s hope Jed can package Bote with him

[Bertz]

 

Not actually familiar with the prospects but at a high level they shouldn't be enough to get out of Bradley's contract AND get Renfroe back?

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Apparently the CBA expires at 11:59, while the lockout vote the owners recently approved takes effect at 12:01.

 

C’mon Jed, find an interesting shenanigan to pull in those two minutes and become a legend!

[Tim]

So, currently on the roster we have:

 

No Options Remaining:

 

Happ

Heyward

Ortega

Frazier

Ramirez

Hermosillo

 

Options Remaining:

 

Deichmann

Davis

Velazquez

Canario

 

Can Also Play OF:

 

Wisdom

Rivas

Hoerner

Morel

 

That's a lot of outfielders. I guess we have a couple months to figure out what they're going for here.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I’m curious what they have planned for the position player group, because it seems clear that even aside from the talent/expectations that there’s more work and re-work coming. Both catchers are right handed, every infielder is right handed(unless you count Rivas and I do not), and they just intentionally gave 3 different RH OF major league contracts in the last week(and Frazier is technically the only one with options). If they add a SS the odds are very high that it’ll be right handed too(Gregorius is basically the only reasonable option unless there’s an unexpected trade). The most immediate impact prospect is a RH OF. That makes the only LH hitters Happ, Ortega(not guaranteed production or playing time), and Heyward(offensive dead weight). The obvious way to help with that is a LH corner IF, but even that feels light unless you’re really high on Ortega(or I guess Deichmann). Even with some of those RH hitters not having dramatic splits it feels like an imbalance you need to address before opening day, but the haziness of how much they value Wisdom, Ortega, and Schwindel makes it tough to say what direction they’d go to do so.

[David]

I don't know how many of you have done an auction fantasy draft, but every one I do follows the same pattern. In the early rounds I'm very disciplined, not going over my target even if a player is exactly who I want for a spot. Then about halfway through, I realize that I've overestimated how much the middle/lower class players cost and can have my pick of them and still have money left over. I still end up doing okay but probably not as good as if I were more confident in my convictions at the top of the market and trust my skill/luck at the bottom. Anyway I really hope that Jed would beat me in a fantasy league but I'm wondering if he's making my mistake in real life.

 

not remotely complaining about the stroman deal and am actually ecstatic about it but this headline did make me think of this post lol

 

[CubinNY]

Never mind - apparently Hermosillo signed a major league contract. I guess Chicago is going to have a lot of outfielders next year

Hopefully Happ is gone

That is my thinking, too. Hopefully they can package him with a prospect and come back with a decent pitcher who can strike people out.

[JeffH]

So, currently on the roster we have:

 

A couple of minor corrections, one meaningful, one not so much.

 

Frazier is optionable. Davis isn't on the roster yet.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Got to playing around with baseballtradevalues.com last night, here's a couple trades that almost certainly won't happen, but add up on that site and have at least some mutual logic so they could be starting points for more realistic deals.

 

Keegan Thompson for Chris Paddack and Ha-Seong Kim

 

 

Why: The Padres free up almost 10 million to be able to fill holes without materially damaging their roster. Paddack's ineffectiveness and injury problems have left him a question mark to make the roster, never mind the rotation, and Kim didn't hit enough to be a regular. They get an optionable swingman who can do a job for them this year. The Cubs get a legitimate defensive SS and can roll the dice on a high upside SP gamble with velo and a pitch mix they like(changeup, maybe nascent cutter).

 

Why not: The Padres can probably do better for Paddack alone, may not want to move Kim since they traded Frazier(though Abrams is coming), have other potential options for freeing salary(Hosmer, Myers), and in the new CBA dumping salary might be easier or less necessary.

 

 

 

Brailyn Marquez and Kevin Alcantara for Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed

 

 

Why: The Diamondbacks get two high upside prospects to cash in on Marte's peak value and better align with their competitive window, while losing Ahmed's contract that's currently underwater. The Cubs get a LH bat they need with significant upside and a strong defensive SS without touching their current roster.

 

Why not: Arizona probably isn't interested in lowering the prospect cost just to unload Ahmed and even outside that he may have more value than is implied. Marquez and/or Alcantara may not be of interest to them, but also those are more examples than specific names crucial to making the deal work.

 

[Tim]

A fun, random note that involves a former Cub: Boston gave Rich Hill a 1 year contract. It is the *seventh* time they've signed him to a deal.

[Outshined_One]

A fun, random note that involves a former Cub: Boston gave Rich Hill a 1 year contract. It is the *seventh* time they've signed him to a deal.

 

It's been almost 20 years since I saw him nearly take hitters' heads off with his out of control curveball in the minors. I would have taken the under on almost any bet involving his major league career length back then.

[UMFan83]

A fun, random note that involves a former Cub: Boston gave Rich Hill a 1 year contract. It is the *seventh* time they've signed him to a deal.

 

It's been almost 20 years since I saw him nearly take hitters' heads off with his out of control curveball in the minors. I would have taken the under on almost any bet involving his major league career length back then.

 

Heck its been almost 15 years since I saw him give up a 1st pitch HR to Chris Young as I was walking to my seats for Game 3 of the 2007 NLDS. Dude just won't quit.

[CubinNY]

A fun, random note that involves a former Cub: Boston gave Rich Hill a 1 year contract. It is the *seventh* time they've signed him to a deal.

 

It's been almost 20 years since I saw him nearly take hitters' heads off with his out of control curveball in the minors. I would have taken the under on almost any bet involving his major league career length back then.

I saw him pitch for the Dimond Jaxx's when he was trying to get his control back and threw three straight fastballs 8 feet high to the backstop in the first inning.

[JeffH]

I wonder if any other pitcher in MLB history pitched his second highest seasonal IP total in his age 41 season.

 

Such a fun guy to follow.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Now that a few holes have been filled, let's do another round of the tradeoff game. In terms of spending, I think last year's opening day payroll of 150 million is a decent soft target for the offseason spending capacity. It could be more(and *should* without question), but I think that strikes a reasonable balance of giving the team midseason flexibility, money to pay Willson more than his arb salary if extended, and otherwise insurance since right now the only payroll leaving for next year is Miley (and potentially Contreras). I'm also gonna hold back 5 million for a pair of relievers, again it might be conservative with as free flowing as 95 mph fastball/slider types are these days, but that means the team would have just more than 30 million to spend.

 

As a reminder, take these options seriously more than literally, since we're estimating potential costs.

 

 

Option A: Superstars and Superscrubs

 

SS: Correa

SP: none

IF: Shaw/Moustakas

OF: none

 

Option B: Stars and Scrubs

 

SS: Story

SP: Urena/Richards

IF: Shaw/Moustakas

OF: none

 

Option C: Spread the wealth

 

SS: Ahmed

SP: Kikuchi

IF: Seager

OF: none

 

Option C could be several variants too(e.g. Urena/Seager/Gardner, Urena/Shaw/Schwarber), though the SS probably is gonna have to have a decent $ obligation compared to the scrubs level options at other positions. If those are the choices, do you have a strong preference now that Stroman/Gomes/Frazier have been added?

[UMFan83]

I'm guessing a big focus for the Cubs will be left-handed bats coming out of the lockout. Looking at their projected position players the only players who can hit lefty are Deichmann, Heyward, Alcantara, Ortega and Happ. Thats....pretty rough. While I'd happily take Correa, he doesn't help in that department and neither does Castellanos.

 

Some options, not ranked by how realistic:

 

Schwarber

Rizzo

Conforto

Kyle Seager

Eddie Rosario

Villar

 

Or maybe we'll see Joc Jams Vol 2

Edited December 2, 2021 by UMFan83

[Tim]

do you have a strong preference now that Stroman/Gomes/Frazier have been added?

My strong preference is spending more money. :)

 

If forced to choose, I'd probably go with some variation of B.