Intradivisional Blockbusters Never Happen, But This One's Worth Dreaming On

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It’s no secret that, if the Cubs want to make a deep postseason run this October, they have to add some pitching before Monday's trade deadline. They have some depth, but when October rolls around, every contender wants as many top-of-the-rotation starters as possible. That's why names like Tarik Skubal and Joe Ryan have dominated the rumor mill over the past several weeks. But there's one name that almost nobody has mentioned. What if the Cubs made a run at Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene?

Now, before you race to the comments to tell me how crazy this is, it's worth acknowledging the obvious. Greene is only 26 years old, one of the most electric pitchers in baseball, and he's under team control well beyond this season. On top of that, trades between division rivals are uncommon, especially when they involve a player of Greene's caliber and who's under control for more than part of a season.

There are plenty of reasons why this deal never gets off the ground. The Reds may have no interest in helping a division rival, even if they're willing to move Greene. If Cincinnati does decide to listen to offers, they might prefer sending him to an American League club, rather than keeping him in the NL. And because of Greene's age, talent, and remaining team control, the asking price would almost certainly be enormous. The Cubs would have to decide whether the upside of adding a true ace outweighs the risk of giving up multiple premium young players for a pitcher with an extensive injury history—and giving them, specifically, to a division foe.

But even with all of those obstacles, the more you look at Cincinnati's situation, the more you can start to understand why the Cubs should at least pick up the phone. There's no questioning Greene's talent. When healthy, he's every bit the ace teams spend years trying to develop. His upper-90s fastball is among the best in baseball; he misses bats at an elite rate; and he's shown he can dominate the league's best lineups. The problem has never been ability; it's been availability.

Despite debuting back in 2022, Greene has never thrown more than 150 innings in any season. Injuries have repeatedly interrupted what has otherwise looked like a career that should include a Cy Young Award or two. This season has been another reminder of that reality. Greene missed more than three months at the start of the year, after undergoing elbow surgery to remove bone spurs in his throwing arm. While the procedure isn't viewed the same way as Tommy John surgery (which he's also had), it adds another entry to an injury history that's becoming difficult to ignore.

It's also far from the only issue he's dealt with. In addition to his arm injuries, he's dealt with a lengthy list of lower-body and other non-arm ailments that have limited his time on the mound. When Greene's healthy, he's one of the best pitchers in the National League. The problem is knowing how often you'll actually have him, and that's where things could become interesting for Cincinnati.

The Reds certainly aren't one of baseball's biggest spenders, and Greene's contract is about to become considerably more expensive. He's owed roughly $32 million over the next two seasons, a more than reasonable number for an ace but a much more difficult commitment for a small-market club when that ace hasn't been able to stay on the field. Cincinnati has to ask a difficult question: Is it worth committing that kind of money to a pitcher whose biggest obstacle year after year is his own health? If the answer is no, Greene suddenly becomes a fascinating trade candidate. The Reds could capitalize on his immense value while avoiding the financial risk that comes with paying for his late-20s seasons.

From the Cubs' perspective, it's exactly the kind of gamble a contender should be willing to make. If Greene stays healthy, he'd immediately give Chicago one of the better postseason rotations in baseball, while remaining under contract well beyond this year's playoff run. That's not something most of the other starters on the market can offer. The Cubs have the organizational depth to put together a compelling offer if the Reds ever became serious about moving Greene. It would take a significant package—arguably, so much so that it would leave the cupboard bare—but it's not impossible.

A deal centered around Matt Shaw and Jaxon Wiggins would give Cincinnati a young, everyday outfielder and the Cubs' best pitching prospect, along with another player or two. Another possibility could feature Pedro Ramírez, Moisés Ballesteros and Wiggins, giving the Reds two young players on the verge of becoming everyday major-leaguers, along with a high-upside arm. If the Cubs were truly willing to push all of their chips to the middle, they could offer Shaw, Wiggins and Jefferson Rojas in a true blockbuster package. None of those returns would be easy to stomach, but that's the type of talent it would likely take to pry away a 26-year-old ace with multiple years of team control.

Rental pitchers certainly have value, but acquiring someone like Greene would strengthen the Cubs' rotation for years, instead of months. That's a debate worth having, but it's also why Greene stands out from the rest of the market. Most trade targets come with limited upside or only a few months of team control. Greene offers something few pitchers can: legitimate ace potential for multiple seasons. Even if the odds of a deal remain slim, the Cubs should at least explore the possibility. Sometimes the best trade deadline moves are the ones nobody sees coming. If the Reds decide the injury concerns and future financial commitment outweigh the reward, Hunter Greene could become one of the most intriguing names available before the deadline. Even that's unlikely, but the more you hear the word 'creative' about them this week, the wider you can imagine that door opening.