4.27 Cubs v Braves, Smoke 'em if you got 'em

[CubinNY]

No Bryant, no Javy, and away we go!

[d_money]

T-Dub looking good tonight

[We Got The Whole 9]

Of course Sogard is gonna carry a 25% K rate as a Cub

[Cubfanintheknow]

Bottom 7th. 5th post.

[Derwood]

Are we sure that Hoerner isn't actually The Miz? Because Hoerner looks an awful lot like The Miz

[Andy]

Starting to think Brandon Workman might not work out.

[Derwood]

Bullpen killing it again

[UMFan83]

Bullpen killing it again

 

It’s the same guy as last night too lol

[Irrelevant Dude]

Workman is trash. But outside of Kimbrel, who isn't really?

[CubinNY]

They are not good.

[Sosa21MVP]

Cobs.

[Schwarber Fan]

4 game winning streak erased, just like that.

[d_money]

Embarrassing. But hey, it’s still April right?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Workman is trash. But outside of Kimbrel, who isn't really?

Duane Underwood

[champaignchris]

8th time in 23 games the Cubs have 4 or fewer hits and 10 or more Ks in a game.

[squally1313]

8th time in 23 games the Cubs have 4 or fewer hits and 10 or more Ks in a game.

 

Is this math right, roughly?

 

if you K 10 times, that means the defense is making 17 outs. Give them 1 HR per game (probably low, 30 in 23 so far) for one hit, and 1 double play per game (high, averaging .7 per game so far) to make it 16 balls in play converted to outs. That translates to 3 hits vs 16 outs on balls in play, or a .158 BABIP. Of course if you make it, say, 13 Ks, it goes to .188.

 

The league BABIP so far is .283, but the lowest it's been since 2010 in any other year is .292. That was last year, so let's be pessimistic and say it's .290. I'm not smart enough to calculate the odds of BABIPing under .200 in a game when the actual number is .290, but I'm guessing it's less than the 1/3rd rate we're currently running.

 

All this to say I think we're still getting unlucky, though it might not matter given our schedule the next couple weeks and by the time we emerge from that it might be too late.

[Bertz]

8th time in 23 games the Cubs have 4 or fewer hits and 10 or more Ks in a game.

 

Is this math right, roughly?

 

if you K 10 times, that means the defense is making 17 outs. Give them 1 HR per game (probably low, 30 in 23 so far) for one hit, and 1 double play per game (high, averaging .7 per game so far) to make it 16 balls in play converted to outs. That translates to 3 hits vs 16 outs on balls in play, or a .158 BABIP. Of course if you make it, say, 13 Ks, it goes to .188.

 

The league BABIP so far is .283, but the lowest it's been since 2010 in any other year is .292. That was last year, so let's be pessimistic and say it's .290. I'm not smart enough to calculate the odds of BABIPing under .200 in a game when the actual number is .290, but I'm guessing it's less than the 1/3rd rate we're currently running.

 

All this to say I think we're still getting unlucky, though it might not matter given our schedule the next couple weeks and by the time we emerge from that it might be too late.

 

At this point, it looks like the luck has roughly evened out at the team level after the offense's outburst last week. At the individual level, a couple guys (Happ and Bote) are still getting heavily horsefeathered, but that's balanced out on the ledger by KB and Javy.

 

The team is 27th in the league in BABIP at .256, but they're second in HR per fly ball rate. So they're missing some singles but have been fortunate dong wise.

 

Looking at their Statcast numbers, and excluding pitchers, it looks like the team has a .311 wOBA, and a .326 xwOBA. Good news, right? Well it turns out that league wide xwOBA is higher than actual by 21 points in the early going. I'm guessing it's still recalibrating post rabbit-ball?

 

There's still obviously room for guys to perform better, but the baseball gods already chipped in what they owed us.

[17 Seconds]

so what happens after this year? I havent even seen people talk about what they realistically expect. are we doing a full rebuild, or will the ricketts actually spend some money to reboot with a different group? like, I have no idea what we are doing. a full rebuild kind of seems inevitable, since the ricketts have been eyeing that from the moment we won the world series.

[Sosa21MVP]

so what happens after this year? I havent even seen people talk about what they realistically expect. are we doing a full rebuild, or will the ricketts actually spend some money to reboot with a different group? like, I have no idea what we are doing. a full rebuild kind of seems inevitable, since the ricketts have been eyeing that from the moment we won the world series.

 

I expect a full rebuild and maybe in another 100 years they will win the WS again. At least I got to see one in my lifetime. :stickman:

[UMFan83]

Remember 5 days ago when the Cubs scored 10 runs in the first 2 innings? Well on our way to getting shutout for the 3rd time in 4 games.

 

They’ve also scored 10 total runs in the 4.5 games since that scoring outburst

[UMFan83]

Hendricks 7.54

Davies 9.47

Yikes

[Derwood]

RD game

[d_money]

It’s unbelievable how bad this team is from top to bottom.

[UMFan83]

How dead are the cubs on this forum?

 

Anthony Rizzo just struck out Freddie Freeman and no one is talking about it

 

[sweetpeteman]

It's so dead, this is yesterday's game thread because no one can be bothered to start them. It's not even May.

 

 

We may just want to go to series threads.