2020 Offseason Thread

[Bertz]

 

It's weird to me that Morosi keeps bringing this up, but also keeps saying it's a thing that makes sense rather than it's a thing he's heard.

 

I do like the Padres as a trade partner a lot though. And I've mentioned earlier in the offseason, but pending payroll and whatever other irons are in the fire, I'd happily take Wil Myers back if it improved the prospect return. Like for example if my options are Darvish for Abrams and Morejon or Darvish for Abrams, Myers, and Patino, give me door #2.

[Cubswin11]

Wouldn’t have minded him at that price, still plenty of options though. I have a feeling with bring Chatwood back on a similar amount as a make good deal assuming he’s healthy (idk if he is healthy or had any sort of procedure).

 

[Backtobanks]

The Rockies got little-to-no production from C, 1B, and 2B last season.

 

 

How about a Christmas trade: Rockies get Caratini + Bote + Underwood for Jon Gray + Mychal Givens + Cash ($3 million?)

[Bertz]

 

The entire NL Central is basically following Jack Donaghy's "into the crevasse" plan from 30 Rock

[NonProfitCow]

Bell kind of sucks though.

[Tryptamine]

[highlight=yellow][/highlight]

Great offseason to be a buyer, Nats got Bell for a song (a 19 YO pitcher and a pre-injured but ML ready guy)

 

That's because he isn't very good. Since May 15th of 2019 covering 669PA, he has put up an .807 OPS good for a 107 wRC+. Outside of the crazy start to 2019 he has never been good.

[Tryptamine]

[highlight=yellow][/highlight]

Great offseason to be a buyer, Nats got Bell for a song (a 19 YO pitcher and a pre-injured but ML ready guy)

 

That's because he isn't very good. Since May 15th of 2019 covering 669PA, he has put up an .807 OPS good for a 107 wRC+. Outside of the crazy start to 2019 he has never been good.

 

Meh, name a player and I can find the reasons not to get that guy. For the price they just paid I'd rather focus on him being a giant, cheap athletic switch hitter in his 20s with a high Iso offense at a position the league isn't really stacked at with starters. It's hard not see this as at least a potential coup for the Nats, in many ways the kind of trade I'd like to see the Cubs make

 

On the other end, the Pirates are hoping Wil Crowe can replace Trevor Williams so they don't have to spend too much money while trying to lose

 

So you like the 28 year old who is a FA in 2 years and accumulated 2.1fwar over the last 2 seasons (836 PA), but you don't like the 23 year old Arraez who has 5 years of control and put up 2.8fwar in the last 2 seasons (487 PA)?

[CubinNY]

81 wins will take the NL Central next year. Edited December 26, 2020 by CubinNY

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Has anything happened yet?

[toonsterwu]

[highlight=yellow][/highlight]

Great offseason to be a buyer, Nats got Bell for a song (a 19 YO pitcher and a pre-injured but ML ready guy)

 

That's because he isn't very good. Since May 15th of 2019 covering 669PA, he has put up an .807 OPS good for a 107 wRC+. Outside of the crazy start to 2019 he has never been good.

 

I agree Bell hasn't been good but they basically got him for a middling prospect and a lottery ticket. Yean could be special, but the Nationals have pitching depth. Crowe ... best case scenario is basically he makes it as an end of the rotation starter, but despite having a starter's arsenal, I'm not sure he sticks in the rotation. I wouldn't surprised if he ends up in the pen, ditching a breaking ball, and sharpening things up.

 

Crowe could very well work out, but for the Nationals, it's a good enough gamble of pitching prospects that are a bit down the pecking order for them to get a stopgap option at 1st base while hoping that Bell can turn it around. For the Pirates, I get it too. You hope Crowe sharpens things up and maybe ticks up to a borderline mid-rotation arm (I doubt it, but it's not impossible), and you hope Yean blossoms with his high end stuff. You think Bell peaked and you clear his salary to get a lot more flexibility.

 

All in all, seems like a pretty smart trade for both sides.

[toonsterwu]

[highlight=yellow][/highlight]

 

That's because he isn't very good. Since May 15th of 2019 covering 669PA, he has put up an .807 OPS good for a 107 wRC+. Outside of the crazy start to 2019 he has never been good.

 

Meh, name a player and I can find the reasons not to get that guy. For the price they just paid I'd rather focus on him being a giant, cheap athletic switch hitter in his 20s with a high Iso offense at a position the league isn't really stacked at with starters. It's hard not see this as at least a potential coup for the Nats, in many ways the kind of trade I'd like to see the Cubs make

 

On the other end, the Pirates are hoping Wil Crowe can replace Trevor Williams so they don't have to spend too much money while trying to lose

 

So you like the 28 year old who is a FA in 2 years and accumulated 2.1fwar over the last 2 seasons (836 PA), but you don't like the 23 year old Arraez who has 5 years of control and put up 2.8fwar in the last 2 seasons (487 PA)?

 

I really think this is more of a "we get someone in place and we wait and see if the market gives us a good opportunity". They really haven't moved anyone in Yean or Crowe that will likely be a make-or-break guy for any potential big trade (Granted, they are saying Rutledge and Cavalli aren't moving, so maybe they don't have the assets to make a big trade, depending on how Kieboom is viewed).

 

Honestly, I view it as the Nationals taking a gamble, and they didn't give up much. If Bell pans out, great. But this gives them time without being pressed into making a move. I suspect they will dangle Carter Kieboom out there and maybe some secondary prospect arms and see if they can't add another bat.

 

___

 

Honestly, I keep wondering about Lindor and the Nationals. Now, Lindor's market is going to be packed, and a lot more teams could get in the mix. That said, they do have a middle infield need if they move Lindor, and I keep wondering if there is some package of say, Kieboom, Tanner Rainey, and maybe the nationals budging on one of their big 2 arms. Trea Turner seems like a team guy that might be willing to slide to another spot, you get a bat and upgrade defensively. Now, it does thin out the pen, but I do have my questions on Tanner Rainey maintaining his level of performance.

 

That said, this presumes the Indians value Kieboom well enough, and even if they do, I can envision other teams offering a big enough package to trump it. Still, if the Nationals budged on one of their big 2 arms (Cavalli or Rutledge) it seems possible that they could swing a home run deal.

 

I just have a hard time seeing Rizzo going into next year with Josh Bell as the main protection brought in for Juan Soto.

Edited December 25, 2020 by toonsterwu

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Has anything happened yet?

 

[Bertz]

I think I've come around to trading Darvish instead of KB:

 

- Darvish is probably the most valuable player on the roster

- Even so, Darvish's contract and NTC make him complicated to move in-season

- I tend to think "age is just a number" for pitchers. But still, keeping a 34 year old pitcher because you're banking on value in his age 35 & 36 seasons is probably fraught

- Darvish is one of 3 players on the roster making real money beyond this year. Moving him now gives you more of a "fresh start" after 2021 (this is not necessarily a positive obviously)

- Bryant has fairly modest value right now, but with his history a hot two months will give him a ton by July

 

If the only plan for competing this year is "be less bad than the competition" then you might as well cash in on your lone superstar. Trade Darvish and a catcher this winter, trade at least one of Bryant/Kimbrel in July, extend Baez or Rizzo, and try to put an actual good team out there again in 2022.

[Post Count Padder]

The Padres and Cubs have had discussions about a trade involving right-hander Yu Darvish, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Whether these negotiations are serious or perhaps simple due diligence on the Padres’ part is unclear, as Acee writes that “signals from team sources have been mixed on how far along those talks are.”

 

More fuel to that fire though who knows how serious it is

[toonsterwu]

I said this earlier in the off-season, but if you were/are going to move Darvish, and I'm not against it, you ought to really just tear down. The logic of the Cubs being able to compete now and get hot partly resides in having an ace level Darvish and Hendricks potentially giving them to quality starts in a series. Without one, it's hard to imagine them going far, even if all the balls bounced their way.

 

Tbh, I really don't see who gets in the game for Darvish. If the Cubs shopped Hendricks, they could probably get a market, but hard to see what remaining teams get in the game for Darvish. I mildly wonder if Dombrowski might consider it in Philly as a win now move, but seems a bit unlikely.

[Bertz]

Tbh, I really don't see who gets in the game for Darvish. If the Cubs shopped Hendricks, they could probably get a market, but hard to see what remaining teams get in the game for Darvish. I mildly wonder if Dombrowski might consider it in Philly as a win now move, but seems a bit unlikely.

 

Twins, Angels, and Blue Jays I think make a ton of sense. Each has a strong farm, a need at the front of the rotation, and indications are they have at least one big money move in them. Twins especially, as they finished second for him in FA.

 

Phillies and Yankees maybe if the right set of dominos fall this offseason? Maybe the Giants try to compete a year early?

[Backtobanks]

Tbh, I really don't see who gets in the game for Darvish. If the Cubs shopped Hendricks, they could probably get a market, but hard to see what remaining teams get in the game for Darvish. I mildly wonder if Dombrowski might consider it in Philly as a win now move, but seems a bit unlikely.

 

Twins, Angels, and Blue Jays I think make a ton of sense. Each has a strong farm, a need at the front of the rotation, and indications are they have at least one big money move in them. Twins especially, as they finished second for him in FA.

 

Phillies and Yankees maybe if the right set of dominos fall this offseason? Maybe the Giants try to compete a year early?

 

Of course, we don't know which teams are on his no-trade list, which might complicate things.

[Cubswin11]

[Cubswin11]

[Cubswin11]

 

 

[Cubswin11]

Isn't that what they're supposed to do early on in FA? Ask for the moon and call it hollow

Yes, but consider this. He’s a complete horsefeathering horsefeathers douche who only has 1 year over 4 WAR and is going to be 30 in a month. He can go horsefeathers himself.

[Clem Fandango]

I know this will be a bad take, but Bauer has grown on me. I've watched several of his videos on his Youtube channel, particularly the roundtable discussions with other athletes and while he may be a horse's ass, he's one who is incredibly passionate and educated about the sport of baseball and the analytical side of things to an alarming extent. He may be obnoxious, but he's also really smart about the sport.

 

That said, he complained about pitchers, mamely Gerrit Cole, using foreign substances in 2019 to increase spin rate and MLB did nothing about and he kinda straight up said he was gonna do the same and he'd be the best pitcher in baseball. Low and behold. Because of this, I want no part in Bauer as it's pretty obvious he's using a foreign substance to elevate his game. If that substance becomes unavailable he's not Cy Young caliber anymore and that's obviously not worth the gamble.

 

[Bertz]

So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

 

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

 

C - Amaya

1B - Rizzo

2B - Hoerner

SS - Baez

3B - Bote

LF - Ervin

CF - Happ

RF - Heyward

 

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

 

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

[Cubswin11]

 

 

 

[Backtobanks]

So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

 

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

 

C - Amaya

1B - Rizzo

2B - Hoerner

SS - Baez

3B - Bote

LF - Ervin

CF - Happ

RF - Heyward

 

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

 

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

 

Davies?