2020 Offseason Thread

[Bertz]

So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

 

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

 

C - Amaya

1B - Rizzo

2B - Hoerner

SS - Baez

3B - Bote

LF - Ervin

CF - Happ

RF - Heyward

 

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

 

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

 

Davies?

 

FA after this year, right? FG has him at 5+ years of service heading into this season.

[Tim]

So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

 

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

 

C - Amaya

1B - Rizzo

2B - Hoerner

SS - Baez

3B - Bote

LF - Ervin

CF - Happ

RF - Heyward

 

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

 

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

Is Brailyn's arm going to explode or will he just disappoint?

[Bertz]

So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

 

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

 

C - Amaya

1B - Rizzo

2B - Hoerner

SS - Baez

3B - Bote

LF - Ervin

CF - Happ

RF - Heyward

 

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

 

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

Is Brailyn's arm going to explode or will he just disappoint?

 

I assume if he stays a starter he's a guy we can hope is in the rotation but we can't count on it? At least to start the year? Same with Davis in the outfield. I'd love for them to whoop ass in MiLB this season and make that prediction needlessly conservative though.

 

I do also think the bullpen will be a strength regardless though. Too many fun arms are floating around at Tennessee or higher for them to not have 5-6 work out at any given time.

[Post Count Padder]

So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

 

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

 

C - Amaya

1B - Rizzo

2B - Hoerner

SS - Baez

3B - Bote

LF - Ervin

CF - Happ

RF - Heyward

 

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

 

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

Is Brailyn's arm going to explode or will he just disappoint?

I feel like Brailyn won't be ready to be in the rotation for the start of 2022? I also have a hard time seeing Rea in the picture there unless he has a solid 2021 and we have no other guys. Would put Keegan or Riley Thompson ahead of him if we're going just off who is in the organization right now. But yes, the point is that's pretty bleak.

[jersey cubs fan]

So the current rumors are that Contreras is getting shopped and that Baez and Rizzo extensions are pretty likely. Take that all together, and this would presumably be the team heading into 2022:

 

SP - Hendricks, Alzolay, Mills, Colin Rea, Cory Abbott

 

C - Amaya

1B - Rizzo

2B - Hoerner

SS - Baez

3B - Bote

LF - Ervin

CF - Happ

RF - Heyward

 

Bullpen - TBD/Doesn't Matter

 

That's.... bleak. Payroll's $110ish million though, so there's money to play with even if the plan is to stay comfortably south of the luxury tax for another year. Though for this to even be fixable via FA, you probably need 2021 to turn 4-5 of those question mark positions into places where you can count on at least solid production. That's a big ask, and why getting back MLB or near-MLB talent back for Contreras is so key.

Gonna be tough for Ervin to start in LF after he’s DFA this summer.

[Cubswin11]

If they don’t do anymore trading off and can add even 2-3 pitchers and 2-3 bats in the $4-10 mil range each we probably will have the best team in the division and really what they should be doing vs a full on rebuild and strip down.

 

 

 

While that flexibility doesn’t mean the Cubs will be swimming in the deep end of the pool, there might be an opportunity to get creative in a free-agent market that might swing back toward them if the market remains frozen.

 

“I think we’re gonna be in the free-agent market, and we’re gonna look to supplement the group,” Hoyer said. “We’re talking to agents and looking to do that right now. We know that there are holes on our roster that we need to address, and we’ll look to address them.

 

“I’m not going to sit here and say that we’re not going to make any more trades. If trades make sense to make, then we will do them. Those deals are gonna be done with an eye on the future. If we do them, they wouldn’t be about cost-cutting. I think we know we have to add players through free agency, and we’ll be looking at that.”

[Bertz]

 

I really like Profar's fit as a bat, but I worry about his 2B defense. He was borderline unplayable in 2019, and I know at one point there was a little bit of talk about the Yips. The numbers say he was still bad last year, but in very limited time (so it could be a rust/reps thing). So if he's actually a 2B/LF, he's kind of a perfect fit on the roster. If he's just a LF, much less so.

[Cubswin11]

 

I really like Profar's fit as a bat, but I worry about his 2B defense. He was borderline unplayable in 2019, and I know at one point there was a little bit of talk about the Yips. The numbers say he was still bad last year, but in very limited time (so it could be a rust/reps thing). So if he's actually a 2B/LF, he's kind of a perfect fit on the roster. If he's just a LF, much less so.

Yeah I really like his bat fit and if 2B can be figured out to be league average there along with some LF/OF I like the versatility he brings to have a lot of different lineup configurations (kinda like Zobrist). He also lets you start Nico in AAA/use more as a platoon or backup guy in MLB but also doesn’t completely get in the way if Nico is showing promise.

 

At the same time if we are trying to win and money is tight... ~$10 mil for Profar may go a longer way for 2 guys who can cover the OF/2B/utility role for $3-6 mil each since there seems to be a lot of guys in that range out there.

Edited January 4, 2021 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

Such a hard pass on Profar. Buying high on mediocre FAs with big injury histories is just a bad way to go about things, especially if the dream here is a Zobrist(!!!!!!!)-esque impact from a guy who has never ever come close to that

 

If he could play 2B really well then yay, especially as a switch hitter, but he can't and it's not reasonable to expect anything approaching that...I don't hate him for the OF but since he's got two surgeried knees, has very little experience there, and isn't a masher don't really love or even truly like the fit

Not saying he has Zobrist type value, just he fits the role of what Zobrist did where he really isn’t a starter anywhere but is starting almost every day somewhere and does the switch hitting/contact thing.

[Bertz]

 

Cleveland makes A LOT of sense for a Contreras deal. This is a laughably deep farm system. Though who knows how much of Lindor's salary they're willing to reinvest after they trade him

[Cubswin11]

Damn it Cubs, he was a nice fit and that’s cheap

 

[Bertz]

Damn it Cubs, he was a nice fit and that’s cheap

 

 

That is extremely annoying

 

I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.

[Cubswin11]

Damn it Cubs, he was a nice fit and that’s cheap

 

 

That is extremely annoying

 

I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.

Same. And I fear aiming higher is JBJ and I am not a big fan of his or his fit on this team. I’d rather have Grossman over him to begin with all factors included.

[Bertz]

Damn it Cubs, he was a nice fit and that’s cheap

 

 

That is extremely annoying

 

I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.

Same. And I fear aiming higher is JBJ and I am not a big fan of his or his fit on this team. I’d rather have Grossman over him to begin with all factors included.

 

JBJ's a good news/bad news thing. Like if the rumor is true we can play in the 8 figure salary end of the pool. That's exciting! But I think like you if that's the case I have other guys I'd rather target.

[Cubswin11]

 

That is extremely annoying

 

I really hope this is because we're aiming higher for our starting OF spot and Grossman wanted a full-time gig. But my confidence in that being the case is...not high.

Same. And I fear aiming higher is JBJ and I am not a big fan of his or his fit on this team. I’d rather have Grossman over him to begin with all factors included.

 

JBJ's a good news/bad news thing. Like if the rumor is true we can play in the 8 figure salary end of the pool. That's exciting! But I think like you if that's the case I have other guys I'd rather target.

Yup, if we’re able to go there I’d rather spread that money out to multiple guys or get in on like Odorizzi, Didi, Brantley, Semien or Wong.

[Named After Maddux]

Probably not the most legit source but there's been no updates on this guy despite there very likely being alot of interest:

 

 

I imagine he'd be the next reliever to sign a contract after Treinen resigned with the Dodgers, simliar in that he's a former closer not married to the role for 2021 in the MLs. This is a FA I would really like the Cubs to sign. Similar pitch mix to Ryne Stanek with a FB up to 97, hard splitter that can get into the low 90s, and slider, former top SP turned top reliever turned top closer in the NPB, finished the year strong after being traded from basically the NPB equivalent of the Yankees

 

The splitter:

 

That’s a very intriguing profile. A slider followed by a splitter was the two pitch sequence with the highest SwSt% (swinging strike %) in baseball last year.

https://twitter.com/choice_fielder/status/1344077942897307650?s=21

[Backtobanks]

I'm kinda glad Grossman is off the market tbh. Not a good defender, .721 OPS against RHP in his career, career SLGs are .376 and .390 against RH and LHP respectively....woulda coulda shoulda been a quality under the radar signing years ago, fully on radar this FA and yeah, pass...There's still bigger fish out there and it's still early

 

Bigger fish cost more money.

[Bertz]

So I assume we have to hear something about Sugano by lunch time at the latest? Otherwise he's likely going back to Japan?

[Bertz]

 

Angels manager Joe Maddon was a strong advocate for Willson Contreras during their time together with the Cubs, so perhaps it’s no surprise the Angels are showing interest in trading for the catcher, according to major-league sources.

 

No deal appears close, but Contreras, 28, would be an excellent fit for the Angels, whose top returning catcher, Max Stassi, might miss the start of the season while recovering from surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left hip.

 

Stassi, 29, is not necessarily the answer even when healthy – he had a .611 career OPS before popping an .866 in 105 plate appearances last season, including a 1.024 against left-handed pitching. The fiery Contreras, who is under control for two more seasons, would bring energy to the Angels, whose position players are mostly older veterans.

 

The Cubs could try to pry loose one of the Angels’ better position prospects – perhaps outfielder Jordyn Adams, 21; middle infielder Jeremiah Jackson, 20; or shortstop Kyren Paris, 19. As reported by The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, they already have shown interest in free-agent catcher Jason Castro after including Victor Caratini in the Darvish deal. If they traded Contreras, they likely would add another catcher and wait one more season for Miguel Amaya.

 

Contreras is known not just to Maddon, but also to three coaches who followed the manager from the Cubs to the Angels – third base coach Brian Butterfield, assistant hitting coach John Mallee and quality assurance coach Tim Buss. New Angels GM Perry Minasian, meanwhile, is familiar with Contreras’ younger brother, catcher William Contreras, from their time together with the Braves.

 

Bauer and Contreras would probably butt the Angels right up against the luxury tax, which sounds like is their line.

[Bertz]

So out of curiosity, I plugged the three names Rosenthal specifically mentioned into this tool:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

 

If you're not familiar, It's pretty cool. It uses established research to convert prospect rankings into dollar values, and for MLBer does the old Dave Cameron dollars/WAR move. It's certainly got problems, any sort of tool that completely strips context out of the equation will, but I like it a lot as a quick and dirty way to sense check these sorts of hypothetical deals.

 

Anyways, when you plug the three names Rosenthal mentioned into the tool, you get a value that matches what Contreras is worth. The tool gives Willson $28.3M in surplus value, while the prospects are at $30.4M. Considering how many assumptions go into something like this, that difference is negligible. Considering this is Rosenthal and how connected he is, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the current proposal on the table from one of the sides.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Anyways, when you plug the three names Rosenthal mentioned into the tool, you get a value that matches what Contreras is worth. The tool gives Willson $28.3M in surplus value, while the prospects are at $30.4M. Considering how many assumptions go into something like this, that difference is negligible. Considering this is Rosenthal and how connected he is, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the current proposal on the table from one of the sides.

 

Rosenthal says "one of" the three, which doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. Also, while I love a good $/WAR or surplus value convo, I find it hard to make many parallels to the current covid environment, especially since so few moves have happened to give a point of comparison.

[Post Count Padder]

I'm fine with Robbie Grossman going elsewhere. Nice player but feels like we could do better.

 

As for Contreras, give me Jordyn Adams, Packy Naughton and Griffin Canning please. (it ain't happening but I can hope)

[Tryptamine]

I'd expect something like Kyren Paris, Alex Ramirez and Jack Kochanowicz. I wish it was more, but I think that's about as good as it's going to get.

[jersey cubs fan]

Maybe Jed and crew have dropped enough payroll to please the ancients because MLB.com dropped their first positive offseason outlook on the Cubs in literally years yesterday:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-still-may-be-nl-central-favorites-in-2021

It's Will Leitch, not a baseball analyst of any type.

[Bertz]

 

McHugh would be the perfect incentive laden MiLB deal type