2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

[SouthSideRyan]

This is a difficult question because nobody really knows what the exact profit is that a team like the Cubs make after all the expenses, but what is a good guess as to what the payroll should be and one that would get people to go, 'OK, they spend enough.'

 

$300 million? $400 million?

 

This is going to be a bad take and not popular, but I don't want the Cubs to morph into the old Steinbrenner's Yankees where we buy FAs every offseason and outspend every team. Like if Mark Cuban bought the team and allowed the Cubs to spend as much as they see fit and didn't care about making a profit...

 

On the one hand I'm happy the players are getting more money and all the revenue is being put back into the team, but I would hate winning that way. Like it's awesome if we outbid the Yankees for Cole, but I personally would kinda hate this team if we kept doing that and had a payroll over $300 million.

 

I'm fine with a team near the luxury tax with times going strategically over. I want the luxury tax line bumped WAY up in the next CBA discussion. Next year it will start at $208M and then goes up to $210M. I'm hoping it gets bumped up to $240M in the next CBA since teams treat it as almost a hard cap.

 

I hate the Yankees and I hate teams that buy their way to a championship (which I know the Cubs didn't do). They should always be in the top 3-4 in spending, but I don't want them to be #1 in spending except in strategic, special offseasons.

 

Thumbs down button press.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

Exactly, the CBA has been in place for 3 years, the consequences of spending from that perspective are not a surprise. So either we have to believe that Theo was confident that the team would be so good that they'd be fine just taking an offseason to trim payroll(even as late as *this June* when he committed 37 million to Kimbrel), or ownership pulled the rug out from under them.

 

I think he significantly overestimated the market for some of his assets. He assumed teams would be showering him with high-profile prospects in offers for Bryant and has been resoundingly met with "meh."

 

There's just no way that he built the team with Plan A being trade Bryant for prospects(and Bryant is the only salary big enough to fix payroll ills). He committed 8 figures in 2020-21 to a reliever in June, combined with the rapidly approaching FA of the positional player core there's no way trading your best player to get under the tax was his first choice, because you know you're taking a step back when you do it even if they're showering him with prospect riches.

 

Why is there no way?

[Sammy Sofa]

 

I think he significantly overestimated the market for some of his assets. He assumed teams would be showering him with high-profile prospects in offers for Bryant and has been resoundingly met with "meh."

 

There's just no way that he built the team with Plan A being trade Bryant for prospects(and Bryant is the only salary big enough to fix payroll ills). He committed 8 figures in 2020-21 to a reliever in June, combined with the rapidly approaching FA of the positional player core there's no way trading your best player to get under the tax was his first choice, because you know you're taking a step back when you do it even if they're showering him with prospect riches.

 

Why is there no way?

 

AKA

 

[Cubswin11]

 

[javy knows my name]

This is a difficult question because nobody really knows what the exact profit is that a team like the Cubs make after all the expenses, but what is a good guess as to what the payroll should be and one that would get people to go, 'OK, they spend enough.'

 

$300 million? $400 million?

 

My assumption is that there are more costs than we give credit for in running the team, so their break even point is probably well south of $300M.

 

That being said there are two big caveats there:

 

1. They definitely pocketed a ton of money from 2012-2015, and haven't turned around and dipped back into that money. They'll point to the renovations but that leads to...

2. A lot of their costs are building up equity. So it's not *really* a loss even of it's not straight up liquid profit

 

So ultimately. I don't *really* care about where that break even point is.

 

They use this excuse so much, and it makes me blind with anger. This is your landlord telling you he can't fix your light bulb bc his mortgage payments are too high.

[Regular Show]

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If Betts does indeed get traded it greatly increases the chances of him reaching FA (especially if he gets traded to small-mid market team). I'd be okay with cost-cutting moves and austerity measures this offseason if the Cubs truly are committed to going all-out for Betts next offseason.

 

Also, they better announce a Baez extension before Cubs Convention or everyone is just going to be in a foul mood there.

[Backtobanks]

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If Betts does indeed get traded it greatly increases the chances of him reaching FA (especially if he gets traded to small-mid market team). I'd be okay with cost-cutting moves and austerity measures this offseason if the Cubs truly are committed to going all-out for Betts next offseason.

 

Also, they better announce a Baez extension before Cubs Convention or everyone is just going to be in a foul mood there.

 

How much cost-cutting and austerity has to happen for the Cubs to acquire Betts next offseason? The budget will need to replace Lester and Quintana along with your desired Baez extension and raises (plus arbitration).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The presence of those guys plus Arenado on the market makes it impossible to get good leverage for a Bryant deal

[Regular Show]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1He7WB2TXeoGRjWmS3-pkTXz_kHh773JvhCXLVXxkTWg/edit#gid=1520401900

 

The Cubs can afford Betts if they don't mind being over the luxury tax line for the next few seasons and spending 300+ million to sign Betts next offseason. If you go to Cots Contracts you'll see they only have $58.5M marked for 2022 (declining the option on Kimbrel). Obviously, keeping some of the core will be expensive and arbitation raises and whatnot.

 

I don't think you can afford Bryant and Baez and Betts. I think Schwarber leaves as a FA. I think the Cubs will extend Rizzo even though it might backfire... I think the Cubs trade Contreras at some point or maybe work out an extension if he comes down on years/length. This is just speculation while talking with a friend, but we think Baez is looking for an 8-10 year deal and Contreras wants a 6-7 year deal and Bryant is looking for a 10 year deal. KB thinks he's going to be playing till he's 40 (and thinks he'll still be good) and said he doesn't know anything else besides playing baseball. That doesn't bode well for the Cubs...

 

The Cubs probably want to go 6 (with options) on Baez, 6 (with options) on Contreras and just 7-8 years on Bryant with opt-outs because Boras. They're having a lot of trouble getting any traction on these extensions. They've tried every offseason going back all the way to 2015 (for KB). Addison Russell turned down the one offered by the Cubs so it's a good thing in that instance.

 

The Cubs will have money to spend in the coming years if we don't lock these players up, but FA isn't a good path to contention IMO.

[Deeg]

There's absolutely no chance on Goc's green Earth the Cubs are going to try and sign Betts. You're 100% kidding yourselves.

[UK]

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If Betts does indeed get traded it greatly increases the chances of him reaching FA (especially if he gets traded to small-mid market team). I'd be okay with cost-cutting moves and austerity measures this offseason if the Cubs truly are committed to going all-out for Betts next offseason.

 

Also, they better announce a Baez extension before Cubs Convention or everyone is just going to be in a foul mood there.

 

Charlie Brown lines up for his 8 FG attempt in a row with Lucy as his holder.

[Backtobanks]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1He7WB2TXeoGRjWmS3-pkTXz_kHh773JvhCXLVXxkTWg/edit#gid=1520401900

 

The Cubs can afford Betts if they don't mind being over the luxury tax line for the next few seasons and spending 300+ million to sign Betts next offseason. If you go to Cots Contracts you'll see they only have $58.5M marked for 2022 (declining the option on Kimbrel). Obviously, keeping some of the core will be expensive and arbitation raises and whatnot.

 

I don't think you can afford Bryant and Baez and Betts. I think Schwarber leaves as a FA. I think the Cubs will extend Rizzo even though it might backfire... I think the Cubs trade Contreras at some point or maybe work out an extension if he comes down on years/length. This is just speculation while talking with a friend, but we think Baez is looking for an 8-10 year deal and Contreras wants a 6-7 year deal and Bryant is looking for a 10 year deal. KB thinks he's going to be playing till he's 40 (and thinks he'll still be good) and said he doesn't know anything else besides playing baseball. That doesn't bode well for the Cubs...

 

The Cubs probably want to go 6 (with options) on Baez, 6 (with options) on Contreras and just 7-8 years on Bryant with opt-outs because Boras. They're having a lot of trouble getting any traction on these extensions. They've tried every offseason going back all the way to 2015 (for KB). Addison Russell turned down the one offered by the Cubs so it's a good thing in that instance.

 

The Cubs will have money to spend in the coming years if we don't lock these players up, but FA isn't a good path to contention IMO.

 

So you're saying we could be the NL version of the Angels. A team of 2 or 3 superstars surrounded by a bunch of role players and no pitching.

[KingCubsFan]

 

Exactly, the CBA has been in place for 3 years, the consequences of spending from that perspective are not a surprise. So either we have to believe that Theo was confident that the team would be so good that they'd be fine just taking an offseason to trim payroll(even as late as *this June* when he committed 37 million to Kimbrel), or ownership pulled the rug out from under them.

 

I think he significantly overestimated the market for some of his assets. He assumed teams would be showering him with high-profile prospects in offers for Bryant and has been resoundingly met with "meh."

 

There's just no way that he built the team with Plan A being trade Bryant for prospects(and Bryant is the only salary big enough to fix payroll ills). He committed 8 figures in 2020-21 to a reliever in June, combined with the rapidly approaching FA of the positional player core there's no way trading your best player to get under the tax was his first choice, because you know you're taking a step back when you do it even if they're showering him with prospect riches.

He’s been saying for years that, eventually, they were going to have to make decisions on the members of the offensive core. So trading Bryant isn’t completely out of left field (although I’m sure it’s never been Theo’s preferred option).

This offseason appears to be the combination of a lot of circumstances: young players failing to develop, bad free agency signings and a horrible farm system. Also, the juiced ball that has made power a less valuable commodity hasn’t helped either.

[Bertz]

Theo has talked about how he was looking to do some of this stuff last winter but that he couldn't because everyone was coming off of fairly nightmarish 2nd halves.

 

I wonder if the plan two years ago was to trade two of Almora/Ruseell/Happ/Contreras for whatever we needed last winter, stay under the tax for 2019 and have 2020 be the lone over the tax year. But after 2018 that became a laughably implausible plan, so here we are now.

 

To TT's point though that still doesn't explain the Kimbrel signing though, so who horsefeathering knows.

[KingCubsFan]

Theo has talked about how he was looking to do some of this stuff last winter but that he couldn't because everyone was coming off of fairly nightmarish 2nd halves.

 

I wonder if the plan two years ago was to trade two of Almora/Ruseell/Happ/Contreras for whatever we needed last winter, stay under the tax for 2019 and have 2020 be the lone over the tax year. But after 2018 that became a laughably implausible plan, so here we are now.

 

To TT's point though that still doesn't explain the Kimbrel signing though, so who horsefeathering knows.

I think he (rightfully) tries to maximize the team’s chances every year. He had an opening in the budget, a glaring team need at the time, and a guy sitting out there for nothing but money. Deal with the rest later.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Remember when there was no way we wouldn’t be in on the top free agents because Theo wouldn’t have paid Cole Hamels’ option if that was most of the budget?

 

The simplest explanation that fits all the data points is that Epstein has poor impulse control when he thinks he is in the “win now” mode of the success cycle and makes poor decisions that will hurt the team even a little ways down the road.

 

This hypothesis dovetails with his entire career, even his Boston days.

[Post Count Padder]

The Tigers are trying to be the Twins; they just signed Cron and Schoop to one year deals after each played for the Twins last season on one year deals.

[KingCubsFan]

Remember when there was no way we wouldn’t be in on the top free agents because Theo wouldn’t have paid Cole Hamels’ option if that was most of the budget?

 

The simplest explanation that fits all the data points is that Epstein has poor impulse control when he thinks he is in the “win now” mode of the success cycle and makes poor decisions that will hurt the team even a little ways down the road.

 

This hypothesis dovetails with his entire career, even his Boston days.

I think that’s a fair criticism

[Backtobanks]

Remember when there was no way we wouldn’t be in on the top free agents because Theo wouldn’t have paid Cole Hamels’ option if that was most of the budget?

 

The simplest explanation that fits all the data points is that Epstein has poor impulse control when he thinks he is in the “win now” mode of the success cycle and makes poor decisions that will hurt the team even a little ways down the road.

 

This hypothesis dovetails with his entire career, even his Boston days.

 

I guess PTR figured out how to cure Theo's poor impulse control problem.

[Regular Show]

Remember when there was no way we wouldn’t be in on the top free agents because Theo wouldn’t have paid Cole Hamels’ option if that was most of the budget?

 

The simplest explanation that fits all the data points is that Epstein has poor impulse control when he thinks he is in the “win now” mode of the success cycle and makes poor decisions that will hurt the team even a little ways down the road.

 

This hypothesis dovetails with his entire career, even his Boston days.

I think that’s a fair criticism

 

Yeah, that's pretty fair. I wasn't a big fan of signing Kimbrel, but it's only cash and only 2 more years. I wouldn't have signed him knowing this budget crunch was coming...

 

Also, I know signing Mookie Betts probably won't happen next offseason. I was just saying it could justify some of the moves (or lack of moves) being made this offseason. Literally, switching from Maddon to Ross is the biggest move we've made thus far as a team.

 

Maybe the addition by subtraction if you think Addison Russell was that detrimental to the team overall.

[Tryptamine]

That sure seems like a lot of aav for a soso innings eater in Keuchel

[Derwood]

That sure seems like a lot of aav for a soso innings eater in Keuchel

 

Helps to link to what you're talking about

 

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[UMFan83]

That sure seems like a lot of aav for a soso innings eater in Keuchel

 

Helps to link to what you're talking about

 

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Well damn they are following the Cubs rebuild perfectly and are now onto the “accumulate bad contracts” part

[Bertz]

I don't know that I hate the contract in a vacuum, but Keuchel seems like a real bad fit considering how limited defensively that infield is

[Post Count Padder]

The Blue Jays may be trading for David Price.

 

Certainly there's a way we can get the Giants to take Heyward's contract right? lol