2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

What's Cole even going to get in this environment?

8 or 9 years at 250+ is my guess. Price got 7/210, Sale got 5/145 that kicks in next year, Strasburg got 7/175 a few years ago. Cole is better, as young or younger and has a cleaner record than all those guys.

[Tryptamine]

Just for fun, what I'd like to see Theo do

 

Release/Non-tender:

Russell

Descalso

Almora

Phelps

 

Options:

Pick up Graveman's option(+3M)

 

FA:

Jason Kipnis 1/5, he made a swing change back in mid June and after that point put up a .262/.325/.477 103wRC+ in 314PAs

Gerrit Cole 7/230

Will Harris 1/6

Akiyama 3/21

 

Trades:

Quintana to LAA for Brandon Marsh (-11.5M)

Brandon Marsh+Alzolay+Underwood for Starling Marte(+11.5M and 12.5M option in 2021)

 

 

 

 

C:Contreras

1B:Rizzo

2B:Kipnis

SS:Baez

3B:Bryant

LF:Schwarber

CF:Marte

RF:Heyward

 

Bench: Bote,Happ,Hoerner,Caratini,Akiyama

SP:Cole,Darvish,Hendricks,Lester,Graveman/Mills

RP:Kimbrel,Ryan,Wieck,Wick,Chatwood,Harris,Hultzen

 

I wanted Will Smith, but I don't think he goes somewhere he's not going to close.

[Hunter]

I just don't see the Pirates trading Marte to us, unless it is an over-pay.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just for fun, what I'd like to see Theo do

 

Release/Non-tender:

Russell

Descalso

Almora

Phelps

 

Options:

Pick up Graveman's option(+3M)

 

FA:

Jason Kipnis 1/5, he made a swing change back in mid June and after that point put up a .262/.325/.477 103wRC+ in 314PAs

Gerrit Cole 7/230

Will Harris 1/6

Akiyama 3/21

 

Trades:

Quintana to LAA for Brandon Marsh (-11.5M)

Brandon Marsh+Alzolay+Underwood for Starling Marte(+11.5M and 12.5M option in 2021)

 

 

 

 

C:Contreras

1B:Rizzo

2B:Kipnis

SS:Baez

3B:Bryant

LF:Schwarber

CF:Marte

RF:Heyward

 

Bench: Bote,Happ,Hoerner,Caratini,Akiyama

SP:Cole,Darvish,Hendricks,Lester,Graveman/Mills

RP:Kimbrel,Ryan,Wieck,Wick,Chatwood,Harris,Hultzen

 

I wanted Will Smith, but I don't think he goes somewhere he's not going to close.

 

We won't know til we know, but that's net adding ~50 million in AAV, I'd say 30 is the high end of what we can hope for realistically, for reasons both reasonable and unreasonable.

[Gilby]

Here's my guess:

 

Ross is manager

Non tender Russell

Pick up the Graveman option

Sign Akiayama 4/30

Sign Chris Martin 2/16

Sign Strop 1/3

Sign Russell Martin 1/5

Sign Adam Jones 1/2

Trade Chatwood to the Phillies for Cesar Hernandez

Trade Caratini to the Braves for Kyle Wright

Trade Happ to the Padres for Matt Strahm

 

OD Roster:

Akiayma CF

Bryant 3B

Rizzo 1B

Baez SS

Schwarber LF

Contreras C

Heyward RF

Hernandez 2B

 

R Martin, Descalso, Bote, Kemp, Jones

 

Hendricks, Darvish, Lester, Q, Mills

 

Kimbrel, C Martin, Wick, Strop, Underwood, Wieck, Ryan, Strahm

 

(Hoerner, Almora, Graveman, Wright begin the season in Iowa)

[Cubswin11]

Get Howie you cowards, he won’t cost much

[Backtobanks]

Get Howie you cowards, he won’t cost much

 

MLBTR chat moderator thought 1 year for $5-7 million.

[SouthSideRyan]

I was thinking Phelps had a dumbass player option, guess it's a team option for 5M instead thanks to Joe bumping that up by 2M by clearing his games threshold.

[Cubswin11]

How is not signing a cheap, popular veteran cowardly? Kendrick's awesome but but but bigger fish or something, $5-7 is not the smallest chunk of change

Because we need better depth and yeah it’s fun to speculate on all these trades and hope for big signings, but adding quality depth is really important this offseason. The depth on offense is probably the biggest reason we fell short this year. You just can’t give 1,000+ PAs to Almora, Descalso, Cargo, Robel, Zagunis, etc.

[ConstableRabbit]

I love Cole but think I would rather spend that on Rendon.

[Cubswin11]

I love Cole but think I would rather spend that on Rendon.

Agree, if were committing 200+ mil to someone I’m picking the bat over the pitcher every time. It’s just such a safer bet.

[Deeg]

I'm not sure we can say Bryant is a better player when Rendon has had about 6 more WAR over the last three seasons, a significantly better OPS and better defensive metrics.

[Deeg]

Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.

 

In a 1:1 comparison, how is being obligated to pay for his age 34-35 seasons at FA prices a point in Rendon's favor? He's almost certainly not going to be at star-level productivity at that point. That doesn't have to be a dealbreaker, but it sure isn't a net positive compared to Bryant's situation.

[Bertz]

Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.

 

Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these.

[GaryWoods]

Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.

 

Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these.

 

I happened to read an article about Howie Kendrick in the last couple of days where Rendon was quoted as saying that he doesn't want to be playing baseball when he's Kendrick's age (36). Maybe he was just poking fun at Kendrick, but if he was serious a deal that takes him to age 35 might be exactly what he looks for.

[squally1313]

Quite the contrary - from a Cubs perspective Rendon's contract status is a point in his favor. The only way he comes to Chicago is on a 5-6 year deal and Bryant is only locked down for 2.

 

Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these.

 

I happened to read an article about Howie Kendrick in the last couple of days where Rendon was quoted as saying that he doesn't want to be playing baseball when he's Kendrick's age (36). Maybe he was just poking fun at Kendrick, but if he was serious a deal that takes him to age 35 might be exactly what he looks for.

 

Friend of a friend works for Boras and passed along something similar. Rendon doesn't really like baseball that much, is just looking for a shorter term deal that is going to set him/family up for generations. Something like a 4/160 deal might not be out of the question.

[Backtobanks]

 

Honestly, I think the complete opposite. Free agency has been particularly unkind to guys in their mid 30's lately, so Rendon's not going to want to sign a deal like that and hit FA again at 35. He is most likely going to geta contract that could be his last, 8-10 years in the 30 per year neighborhood. There's an outside chance he does something short at a crazy AAV, like 4/150, but until we actually see one I'm growing increasingly skeptical that the Dodgers are actually offering these.

 

I happened to read an article about Howie Kendrick in the last couple of days where Rendon was quoted as saying that he doesn't want to be playing baseball when he's Kendrick's age (36). Maybe he was just poking fun at Kendrick, but if he was serious a deal that takes him to age 35 might be exactly what he looks for.

 

Friend of a friend works for Boras and passed along something similar. Rendon doesn't really like baseball that much, is just looking for a shorter term deal that is going to set him/family up for generations. Something like a 4/160 deal might not be out of the question.

 

Obviously 4/120 wouldn't be good enough to set him/family up for generations. :lol:

[UMFan83]

Guys no need to discuss our offseason anymore, this guy has the correct answer

 

https://twitter.com/usfan10/status/1185102979998744576?s=21

[Bertz]

I've been playing around with payroll numbers this year, and while it sucks that things are tight for us they're also really tight for the Brewers and Cards.

 

The Brewers are right around last year's payroll already, before adding anyone. They do have about a dozen players in arb, so they could scrounge up ~$10M if they non tender several guys, but they're probably at best looking at enough to re-sign Moustakas. It also sounded last year like they stretched to get up to $120M, so they might not have any room even if they do clear a little money. The Lorenzo Cain deal got them a division title and was totally worth it, but it's going to hurt badly the next three years.

 

The Cards are currently $5-10M south of where they opened last year. They've previously indicated that they have a little bit more payroll wiggle room, but regardless I'd expect they don't have any more than the 20-30 available that we do. They can re-sign or replace Ozuna, but likely not much on top of that.

[Cubswin11]

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2019/10/17/nico-hoerners-big-league-debut-did-highlight-one-huge-area-he-needs-to-work-on/

 

In the last five seasons, here are the highest swinging rates on pitches out of the strike zone, min 80 PA:

 

Pedro Ciriaco, 2015, 53.2%

Juan Graterol, 2017, 52.0%

Jorge Alfaro, 2019, 50.4%

Tomas Nido, 2018, 48.9%

Kevin Pillar, 2019, 48.8%

Nico Hoerner, 2019, 48.6%

Francisco Pena, 2018, 48.5%

Salvador Perez, 2018, 48.4%

John Hicks, 2019, 48.3%

 

Hitters with wRC+ > 110, O-Swing > 42%, 2013-2019 (min 400 PA)

 

Javy Baez, 2018, 131 wRC+

Tim Anderson, 2019, 130 wRC+

Juan Uribe, 2014, 122 wRC+

Adam Jones, 2013, 119 wRC+

Pablo Sandoval, 2013, 117 wRC+

Corey Dickerson, 2017, 116 wRC+

Corey Dickerson, 2018, 115 wRC+

Eddie Rosario, 2018, 114 wRC+

Javy Baez, 2019, 114 wRC+

Adam Jones, 2015, 111 wRC+

Pablo Sandoval, 2014, 110 wRC+

Marlon Byrd, 2014, 110 wRC+

 

So in seven years, we have 12 seasons, by just eight hitters, that match the criteria (El Mago: of course). This is a rare thing, and it’s a needle that we’d prefer Nico not try and thread, particularly given the amount of power you otherwise see on that list.

 

This hitter needs a free starting job on this team?

 

Eh, it’s 80 PAs. No doubt it’s a “problem” he needs to fix, but we’re talking like 15-20 PAs of him not chasing to swing the percentages to an acceptable level. There’s an elite hit/contact tool in there, I’m fine if we want to start him in AAA next year to work on things but he should be part of the plans to an extent. We can’t have stars at every position and we need more solid depth and contact hitters and he provides that.

 

 

Do they track O-Zone swing % in the minors? Would be interested to see where he was down there.

[Sammy Sofa]

I started to get all kinds of excited thinking there were maybe connecting rumors here, and then I saw it was a horsefeathering Tom post and I threw my computer out the window.

[Backtobanks]

MLB.com:

 

In his latest Cubs inbox, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian addressed whether the team could consider dealing catcher Willson Contreras, who has rated poorly as a pitch-framer, elevating Victor Caratini to the starting role and then signing a defensive-minded backup.

 

That seems more unlikely, considering Contreras is a 27-year-old whose 127 wRC+ led all catchers with at least 400 plate appearances in 2019. He also has three years of team control remaining, one more than Bryant, Báez and Schwarber.

 

"We've won a lot of games with Willson Contreras behind the plate," Epstein said. "We've had a lot of success pitching with Willson Contreras behind the plate. There are certainly areas he can continue to improve upon, but shame on us if we can't continue his development at the big league level, because this is like the most tooled-out, athletic catcher who has a huge heart and cares and wants his pitcher to succeed as well."

 

 

http://returntomanliness.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/godfather_kiss_of_death.jpg

 

 

Marte is arguably the best trade chip for a Pittsburgh club coming its worst record (69-93) since 2010. However, the consensus among the people within the industry MLB.com's Adam Berry has spoken with is that Marte will be with the Pirates at the start of next season.

 

"Since they don’t seem to have any interest in a full-scale rebuild, it’s likely that they will begin next year with Marte in center field, probably batting third behind Kevin Newman and Reynolds," Berry writes, predicting that a deal is more likely around next year's Trade Deadline.

 

I suggested this trade quite awhile ago:

Trade Contreras, Almora, Short, and Underwood to Pittsburgh for Marte, Frazier, and Kela.

Trade Chatwood and Bote to Texas for Leclerc and Mazara.

 

Extend Quintana and sign a catcher (?), Maybin, Odorizzi, Liriano.

 

Rizzo

Frazier

Baez

Bryant

Schwarber

Marte

Heyward

Caratini

 

Darvish

Hendricks

Lester

Quintana

Odorizzi

 

Wick

Wieck

Kela

Leclerc

Ryan

Kimbrel

Liriano

 

Happ, Hoerner, Mazara, Maybin, Catcher (26th man- Mills, Alzolay, Norwood, Maples, Kemp, Descalso, Graveman)

[Bertz]

Marte is a good player, but he's a tough fit on this team.

He has a severe and consistent platoon split. Over the last three years, he has a 76 wRC+ against lefties, and a 121 against righties. For reference, Schwarber is at 85 and 120. He was also a really bad CF last year defensively.

 

That doesn't mean you can't go after him, he's a good player, but you basically have to pair him with with a Kevin Pillar type. I feel like if you have to get a RH caddy and deal with so-so defense either way, I'd probably prefer shifting Heyward over and finding a full time RF.

[Derwood]

You're a Tom post

 

Well that was uncalled for