2019 Bold Prediction Time

[Bluescale]

Either Heyward or Chatwood has a monster year. 4+ WAR minimum. I'm not sure I want to consider what circumstances would have to come together for Chatwood to even get that opportunity...

[Cubswin11]

Either Heyward or Chatwood has a monster year. 4+ WAR minimum. I'm not sure I want to consider what circumstances would have to come together for Chatwood to even get that opportunity...

I’m starting to talk myself in to Chatwood being a reasonably valuable thing out of the bullpen so let’s get nuts. Chatwood will turn in to the best multi inning reliever in MLB going ~100 innings out of the pen to get to his 4 WAR.

[squally1313]

Either Heyward or Chatwood has a monster year. 4+ WAR minimum. I'm not sure I want to consider what circumstances would have to come together for Chatwood to even get that opportunity...

I’m starting to talk myself in to Chatwood being a reasonably valuable thing out of the bullpen so let’s get nuts. Chatwood will turn in to the best multi inning reliever in MLB going ~100 innings out of the pen to get to his 4 WAR.

Any particular reason why on this? It wasn't like he was better the first time through the order? Seems like a disaster bringing him in and counting on him for multiple innings when there's a 50/50(?) chance he just won't be able to throw a strike from the get go.

[Cubswin11]

Either Heyward or Chatwood has a monster year. 4+ WAR minimum. I'm not sure I want to consider what circumstances would have to come together for Chatwood to even get that opportunity...

I’m starting to talk myself in to Chatwood being a reasonably valuable thing out of the bullpen so let’s get nuts. Chatwood will turn in to the best multi inning reliever in MLB going ~100 innings out of the pen to get to his 4 WAR.

Any particular reason why on this? It wasn't like he was better the first time through the order? Seems like a disaster bringing him in and counting on him for multiple innings when there's a 50/50(?) chance he just won't be able to throw a strike from the get go.

Out of the pen I suppose he can focus on 2-3 pitches only. His velo is already good and could tick up, his curve is his best pitch (and I believe rates or has rated as one of the better ones in MLB) so focus on FB/curve and maybe a change or cutter or something. Simplify things. This is assuming he can get the walk rates down to just a little below average (which is where he’s usually been) from historically awful. But I can see a path to him being a decent multi inning RP. Obviously the whole 4 WAR thing is hyperbole, but him being a decent RP is something I could see happening.

[Bluescale]

Either Heyward or Chatwood has a monster year. 4+ WAR minimum. I'm not sure I want to consider what circumstances would have to come together for Chatwood to even get that opportunity...

I’m starting to talk myself in to Chatwood being a reasonably valuable thing out of the bullpen so let’s get nuts. Chatwood will turn in to the best multi inning reliever in MLB going ~100 innings out of the pen to get to his 4 WAR.

Any particular reason why on this? It wasn't like he was better the first time through the order? Seems like a disaster bringing him in and counting on him for multiple innings when there's a 50/50(?) chance he just won't be able to throw a strike from the get go.

 

This is the bold predictions thread...the idea that he learns to throw strikes again is about as bold as it gets. I guess bolder would be to predict Almora gets 80 walks and 20 homeruns, but that's just crazy insane person talk...

[Bertz]

Paraphrasing myself from another thread earlier this winter, but Tyler Chatwood the reliever might look an awful lot like Cubs era Wade Davis:

 

- Both are big time spin rate guys (Chatwood's actually better)

- Both guys can't throw strikes (Chatwood's Zone% last year was 43.3%, Davis' was 43.4% with us in 2017

- As a reliever, Chatwood probably drops the sinker & change to go Fastball/Cutter/Curve, same as Davis

- I doubt Chatwood's cutter would be as good as Wade's. but he'd likely have more fastball velocity and he already has more spin on the fastball and curve

- Both seem to be legit soft contact guys

 

The thing that gives me doubt is that Chatwood would lose the zone for like 10-15 pitches at a time last year. That just can't fly as a reliever. Hopefully dropping a few pitches and/or the mechanical work this winter prevents those long droughts. But if he can avoid those I really think this can work.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We spend all year mocking PECOTA until it becomes eerily close to right, like the White Sox fans a few years ago.

[17 Seconds]

MY OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

 

 

i always thought marlo delivered that line in a weird way

[Cubswin11]

One bold prediction on the division I’ll make is it takes under 90 wins to win the division (88 or 89) largely due to the strength of the division dragging down win totals.

[Sammy Sofa]

MY OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

 

 

i always thought marlo delivered that line in a weird way

 

He was a weird dude.

[17 Seconds]

MY OFFICIAL PREDICTION:

 

 

i always thought marlo delivered that line in a weird way

 

He was a weird dude.

 

his name is his name

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

 

It's great he has those surges to bounce back somewhat, but he's not that far off from just being a dude, unfortunately; that insane August OPS was sustained by a .333 BAbip, and he's not that kinda guy. I'm thinking about a 3-3.3 WAR next year is his likely best case scenario.

I think we need to start including error bars and percentiles of likelihood because terms like "likely best case scenario" are totally meaningless without some kind of numerical context.

[Sammy Sofa]

Quit trying to steal David's bit.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Quit trying to steal David's bit.

[NonProfitCow]

Paul Goldschmidt is your new god and NL MVP.

[Derwood]

you want a bold prediction, pick which cubs player dies on the field this year

 

Whichever one we trade to the Cardinals

 

And by "in the field", I assume you mean crashing a car into barn after shotgunning three bottles of Jager

[Tim]

Paul Goldschmidt is your new god and NL MVP.

Man, I'm going to hate banning you.

[soccer10k]

Paul Goldschmidt is your new god and NL MVP.

 

Well he does get to play the Cubs 18 times instead of 6 so that should give his numbers a boost.

[SouthSideRyan]

you want a bold prediction, pick which cubs player dies on the field this year

 

Can we count Ryan Dempster?

[SouthSideRyan]

We spend all year mocking PECOTA until it becomes eerily close to right, like the White Sox fans a few years ago.

 

Does Will Carroll oddly gloat about it again?

[Backtobanks]

you want a bold prediction, pick which cubs player dies on the field this year

 

Can we count Ryan Dempster?

 

Better yet can we count owners?

[David]

We spend all year mocking PECOTA until it becomes eerily close to right, like the White Sox fans a few years ago.

A few years ago, for the record, means 12. That was the 2007 team.

[rocket]

the reds win the world series

[Hairyducked Idiot]

We spend all year mocking PECOTA until it becomes eerily close to right, like the White Sox fans a few years ago.

A few years ago, for the record, means 12. That was the 2007 team.

 

I'm old and time goes quickly.

[weis21]

Edwards' new Jansen/Kershaw delivery fixes his control issues and he and Morrow (when healthy) become the best 1-2 bullpen punch in the NL. Chatwood miraculously gets fixed enough that he's one of the better middle relievers and is a standard 7th inning option. The Cubs shaky bullpen suddenly is their strongest point when you also factor in Strop, Brach, Cishek, Cedeno (LOOGY). Mekkes and Haggerty are called up and provide great value around mid-season.

 

Heyward slightly improves at the plate enough that he is a not really all that irritating to me (this is more personal because I want so bad to just like the guy a lot). He still provides stellar defense and baserunning and begins to get more starts in CF when Almora et al continue to be meh options out there.

 

Despite being the punchline as the only hitter signed in the offseason-from-the-devil-himself, Descalso provides the Cubs with a really great and flexible option.

 

Contreras takes a big step forward and is once again an all-star mid-season. Joe decides he doesn't want to kill him so he gives him some days off with a catcher that hasn't yet been acquired.

 

Cubs have 5 top 100 prospects by the end of the season (hoerner, amaya, azolay, marquez, roederer). nico and marquez are top 50.

 

Giambrone is Bote 2.0 and provides a spark and value sometime after the ASB.