Chicago Bears offseason

[jersey cubs fan]

Well that was a depressing end.

 

I have no idea what sort of moves they are likely to make this offseason. Very likely that the coaching staff will stay relatively stable. They don't have a 1st or 2nd round pick this year, so we're looking at depth players being targeted, and while they spent a ton on free agents this past year, they may have to be active again.

 

We're probably at the point in the roster cycle where they will lose some guys that are pretty good.

[WrigleyField 22]

Well that was a depressing end.

 

I have no idea what sort of moves they are likely to make this offseason. Very likely that the coaching staff will stay relatively stable. They don't have a 1st or 2nd round pick this year, so we're looking at depth players being targeted, and while they spent a ton on free agents this past year, they may have to be active again.

 

We're probably at the point in the roster cycle where they will lose some guys that are pretty good.

I'm guessing that two of Callahan, Amos, and Massie are retained, and one is replaced with a cheaper FA option (or possibly internal). Bush probably the best internal replacement of those 3 spots.

 

All of our specialists could change by next season too.

[WrigleyField 22]

Cap Summary

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/chicago-bears/

Total Cap Liabilities: $173,978,886

Top 51: $173,653,136

Team Cap Space: $20,254,111

 

Cut calculator:

https://overthecap.com/calculator/chicago-bears/

Sims is only easy cut option (6M savings). Most other guys are modest savings (Acho) or open up big holes (Trevatham, Long).

 

FA Summary

https://overthecap.com/free-agency/chicago-bears/

Outside of the 3 starters and 3 specialists already mentioned above, the most notable rotation pieces based on 2018 snaps are Lynch, Bellamy, Witzman, and Kush. Some decent internal G and OLB options. WR, Wims is promising, but needs to add ST play to really replace Bellamy's full role. Roy Robertson Harris, Isaiah Irving, and Rashaad Coward are exclusive right FA which means the Bears will keep them if they want to.

 

A few early FA lists

https://www.cleveland.com/expo/sports/g66l-2019/01/bb65f89efd8320/nfl-free-agents-2019-top-50-pl.html

Massie didn't make this list, but no OT, and only a couple OL at all did

http://nfltraderumors.co/top-25-2019-nfl-free-agents-list/

A very different top 50 list

https://247sports.com/nfl/chicago-bears/ContentGallery/NFL-free-agent-kickers-2019-127439601/Amp/

A Parkey replacement list.

 

Draft picks, most subject to chance after supplemental picks are added:

Rd 3 (93)

Rd 4 (125)

Rd 5 (157)

Rd 7 (221)

Rd 7 (from PHI, unclear which pick)

 

Needless to say the Bears will need to hit college FA hard to fill the bottom of the roster and PS.

Edited January 8, 2019 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

Here's the optimists view on the offseason.

 

All of Ryan Paces picks after 100:

Joel Iyiegbuniwe

Bilal Nichols

Kylie Fitts

Javon Wims

Eddie Jackson

Tarik Cohen

Jordan Morgan

Nick Kwiatkowski

Deon Bush

Deiondre' Hall

Jordan Howard

DeAndre Houston Carson

Daniel Braverman

Jeremy Langford

Adrian Amos

Tayo Fabuluje

[minnesotacubsfan]

I bet Amos is the odd one out of that group with a 3rd rd SS being drafted to pair with Bush. Callahan is too valuable as is Massie. I see their draft going

 

3rd SS

4th OLB

5th TE

6th OL

7th WR

7th RB

Edited January 7, 2019 by minnesotacubsfan

[Bertz]

Spotrac has the Bears at $19.5m in space, though they can cut Dion Sims and save another $6m, which I would assume is a virtual certainty. So they've realistically got $25.5m to spend.

 

Like WF22 said: Massie, Callahan, and Amos are the FA's of note. I would guess they could technically resign all three, but more realistically keeping two and spreading the rest of the money on depth guys is probably the way to go.

 

There are a few more veterans they could cut to save money:

 

Robinson ($7m in dead money, $15m total salary, $8m in possible savings)

Hicks ($4.5/$10.1/$5.6)

Long ($3.5/$8.5/$5m)

Trevathan ($1.25/$7.65/$6.4)

 

I doubt any of them are worth cutting for the money saved. Long probably if we had more draft picks or didn't also need to replace Massie. Maybe Trevathan if you like Kwiatkowski and/or Iggy enough.

 

Overall I think the roster's in pretty good shape.

[Old Style]

It's too early for this thread. horsefeathering Parkey.

[Tim]

Honestly, they're in pretty good shape for 2019. Those aren't horrible losses or guys that are tremendously difficult to replace. It really comes down to Amos, Callahan and Massie. If they feel Coward is going to be ready, then you let Massie go, pay Amos and Callahan and you're pretty well set. Maybe you keep Bellamy if the downgrade to Wims on special teams would be too large. He's not going to cost much, anyway.

 

I suspect we'll largely see the same team in 2019 as they try to keep cap flexibility for the following seasons when the crunch really hits.

[WrigleyField 22]

I doubt any of them are worth cutting for the money saved. Long probably if we had more draft picks or didn't also need to replace Massie. Maybe Trevathan if you like Kwiatkowski and/or Iggy enough.

 

Overall I think the roster's in pretty good shape.

Yea, pretty much. I think Trevathan is too important. See if you can mold Joel Iyiegbuniwe another year (he has the right tools at least). The only reason Long is in the convo is health. If his salary was the difference in upgrading RT and keeping Callahan AND Amos, that would be basically the only argument. I doubt there is much of a RT upgrade that will actually be available though.

[WrigleyField 22]

Callahan’s going to get a ton of interest. Gross to say but his season ending early to injury might be a blessing in disguise for the Bears as far as being able to keep him

It's a pretty limited tool, but Spotracs market value has him at 3/20 value. He could easily push 10 though if a team gets hot on him.

 

He hasn't been a model of health, so 3/20 may be a decent range to stay at with him. I'd guess Massie (OT market usually sucks) and Amos will push that 7-10M number, but the S market is sometimes weird. Some type of creative backload scenario with some of these guys isn't out of the question if Pace wants to double down on the chips he's pushed in next year and deal with the fallout later. I recall NO frequently doing this in the past.

[Chocolate Milk]

Callahan’s going to get a ton of interest. Gross to say but his season ending early to injury might be a blessing in disguise for the Bears as far as being able to keep him

It's a pretty limited tool, but Spotracs market value has him at 3/20 value. He could easily push 10 though if a team gets hot on him.

 

He hasn't been a model of health, so 3/20 may be a decent range to stay at with him. I'd guess Massie (OT market usually sucks) and Amos will push that 7-10M number, but the S market is sometimes weird. Some type of creative backload scenario with some of these guys isn't out of the question if Pace wants to double down on the chips he's pushed in next year and deal with the fallout later. I recall NO frequently doing this in the past.

Callahan is a guy that I'm not sure they are going to resign. As you said, he has a long injury history and there wasn't a noticeable drop-off when he went out. I'm not really sure they resign Amos either. Massie is a guy I could see them resigning on the cheap, which is funny because he's clearly the worst player of those three.

[Chocolate Milk]

I really think they need a RB. Howard either isn't a fit or isn't the same player as previous seasons and there is no way that Cohen can come close to carrying the load.

[WrigleyField 22]

I really think they need a RB. Howard either isn't a fit or isn't the same player as previous seasons and there is no way that Cohen can come close to carrying the load.

Howard looked like a pretty good fit the last few games...

 

I'd be really curious if they could actually get trade value out of him though. Nagy clearly wants to spread the ball around to his various RB options.

[jersey cubs fan]

I really think they need a RB. Howard either isn't a fit or isn't the same player as previous seasons and there is no way that Cohen can come close to carrying the load.

Howard looked like a pretty good fit the last few games...

 

I'd be really curious if they could actually get trade value out of him though. Nagy clearly wants to spread the ball around to his various RB options.

I wrote a sentence predicting a Howard trade in the initial post but deleted it because I didn't really convince myself. But I do have a feeling they will look into options.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I really think they need a RB. Howard either isn't a fit or isn't the same player as previous seasons and there is no way that Cohen can come close to carrying the load.

 

 

he ended lower in yards (935 - almost 1000 surprisingly) and ypc (3.7) then his past three years, but as the season went on his ypc started to get better. That could be Nagy learning his players better and utilizing him more effectively later in the season. I doubt he's going anywhere, I bet they give it another year.

 

 

eta: he also had 9 TD's this year.

[Chocolate Milk]

I really think they need a RB. Howard either isn't a fit or isn't the same player as previous seasons and there is no way that Cohen can come close to carrying the load.

 

 

he ended lower in yards (935 - almost 1000 surprisingly) and ypc (3.7) then his past three years, but as the season went on his ypc started to get better. That could be Nagy learning his players better and utilizing him more effectively later in the season. I doubt he's going anywhere, I bet they give it another year.

I could see them giving it another whirl. He's cheap and they aren't likely to get much for him. On the other hand, they are giving Mizzell carries on the first drive of a playoff game. They were looking for answers.

[UMFan83]

How much could the Bears really get for Howard? A 4th?

[jersey cubs fan]

How much could the Bears really get for Howard? A 4th?

No idea. I imagined a 3, or maybe that would require Howard plus a 5 or something.

[minnesotacubsfan]

On the other hand, they are giving Mizzell carries on the first drive of a playoff game. They were looking for answers.

 

 

Mizzell got 1 carry. That's not really searching for answers.

[Chocolate Milk]

On the other hand, they are giving Mizzell carries on the first drive of a playoff game. They were looking for answers.

 

 

Mizzell got 1 carry. That's not really searching for answers.

Good point. I just remembered that carry on the first series and thinking "what is going on here?"

[minnesotacubsfan]

On the other hand, they are giving Mizzell carries on the first drive of a playoff game. They were looking for answers.

 

 

Mizzell got 1 carry. That's not really searching for answers.

Good point. I just remembered that carry on the first series and thinking "what is going on here?"

 

anytime I see or hear Mizzell playing I think he's getting way too many carries....because he is. turns out its not a lot.

[BigbadB]

It's Nagy thinking he's duping the secondary into leaning back thinking pass play and then Trubisky hands the ball to Mizzell for no gain. It doesn't work. Place that play in the trash can and pick a new one!

[WrigleyField 22]

How much could the Bears really get for Howard? A 4th?

No idea. I imagined a 3, or maybe that would require Howard plus a 5 or something.

I'm not interested in any Howard trade that nets an equal pick swap, unless its a top 40 pick. There just isn't that much difference between a 5th and a 3rd to justify that.

 

I'm m also more than good holding onto him and using his last cheap year then hopefully collecting a comp pick in 2021.

[Old Style]

Jace Sternberger at TE would be a good pickup for the Bears. He should be available in the 3rd round, I would think.

[gflore34]

Here's the optimists view on the offseason.

 

All of Ryan Paces picks after 100:

Joel Iyiegbuniwe

Bilal Nichols

Kylie Fitts

Javon Wims

Eddie Jackson

Tarik Cohen

Jordan Morgan

Nick Kwiatkowski

Deon Bush

Deiondre' Hall

Jordan Howard

DeAndre Houston Carson

Daniel Braverman

Jeremy Langford

Adrian Amos

Tayo Fabuluje

 

 

Given this is why I wasn't too worried about the cost of Mack, Pace has done a really good job drafting in the later rounds. It's not unreasonable to expect he'll find a quality player or two in this year' draft.