Let the hate flow thread - our rosters have been totally mismanaged

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

He had to do that this year to keep this team competitive w/o Bryant. He will not do that next year, but Bryant and Harper will make up for it.

 

"..had to do"? It just seems like his style of play. He's always been a bit of a magic-show infielder and is being watched for that far more this year I think.

 

Dude, he's not being valued more simply because more people are paying attention to him.

 

dude, I'm not saying he will be valued more. I'm saying he is more likely then not to play the way he has this season next season. I'm saying he is getting a lot more attention for it this year then years past.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm saying he is more likely then not to play the way he has this season next season.

 

Respectfully disagree, given the relatively uncharted territory-nature of his success.

 

That's not saying he's likely to fall off of a cliff, but I'd be pretty surprised if he was a 4-4.5+ WAR player on a regular basis, if even just or how his style of play has a good chance of landing him on the DL and/or declining sooner rather than later.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I'm saying he is more likely then not to play the way he has this season next season.

 

Respectfully disagree, given the relatively uncharted territory-nature of his success.

 

That's not saying he's likely to fall off of a cliff, but I'd be pretty surprised if he was a 4-4.5+ WAR player on a regular basis, if even just or how his style of play has a good chance of landing him on the DL and/or declining sooner rather than later.

 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It turns out that pitchers are weird and random. When your 5.XX ERA from Baltimore becomes peak Bob Gibson, you're a genius. When all your expensive, previously-good pitchers suck, you suck.

 

We're through four years of window now. How long is the window supposed to last in a world of insanely early peaks, parity and attrition? It's one of the oldest pitching staffs in baseball, it can only expect to get worse from here on out without a major investment, and we don't have that many resources left to invest in it.

 

On the hitting side, Addison Russell sucks as a human being and Albert Almora sucks as a baseball player. Everyone else in the lineup is already going to be at least 26 next year. And nobody really knows if Kris Bryant's shoulder will ever be able to do what it used to do. There's no more growth built-in, only the inevitable decaying decline that is existence.

 

Basically, we're past the midpoint of the peak that comes with a Theo-style rebuild. When they reached this point in Boston in 2006, they stretched it into three more playoff appearances in a row and then were out 6 of the next 7 years. But 2006 Boston had 22-year-olds Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia to help smooth out the second half of their run. If we want a similar second half, we're going to be aggressive in retooling the roster every offseason to fix the broken parts.

 

It's not time to think about another rebuild yet, but it's time to think about when it will be time to think about one.

[The_Achiever]

This is a critical offseason.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Essentially, I don't think this is a result of mis-management because this is what we've always been built around. A big tank followed by a finite run. That we've already got four years out of the run with a chance to grab a couple more is pretty good. Sustained success was never real.

[Cubswin11]

Trying to look at it from a positive note:

 

Position Players:

LF- Schwarber is 6th in fWAR for qualified LF'er and 4th in OPS, in what many think is a down or disappointing year. He has a .870 OPS vs RHP, his overall BB and K rates have moved ~3% in the right direction this year, the defense might not rate this good moving forward but he's fine out there. I think it's safe to pencil him in as a ~3 WAR player next year with some upside to be a little more and that's plenty fine and valuable for your 5th or 6th best position player

CF- Heyward/Almora is a fine platoon, for as much as I hate Almora if he's held to just a strict platoon to face LHP he's fine. Heyward looks a little fixed this year and he's probably closer to this player than the black hole he was in previous years. A Heyward/Almora platoon will put up a mid .700 OPS combined with good defense for guys who should be hitting 7/8 in a lineup I'll take it. Happ might still be around too but I suspect he's the odd man out.

RF- Bryce, he's Bryce Harper. He'll help mitigate regression/injuries next year or if any of it continues from this year. He should make the offense less volatile and stabilize things and opens up a little more margin for error on performance/injuries moving forward.

3B- KB was on his way to taking it to a new level before the shoulder injury, he was basically right handed Votto. If we want to believe our medical staff that he only needs rest and there's nothing more going on there I think it's fair to say he's going to be his normal 6+ WAR player in some way. Maybe we get closer to 2017 KB with not the crazy HRs but he's going to be productive.

SS- Javy is definitely a defensive downgrade over Russell but he can handle it just fine, it's unlikely he has an offensive year like this year again because he's doing some unsustainable things but he's such a baseball freak I'll never doubt him. Add in a Jordy Mercer, Eduardo Escobar type for depth for 1-2 years before Hoerner or Short are ready and to bump Javy to 2B here and there (probably mostly vs LHP). I'm not betting on Javy being this 5 WAR Javy but I could see his 2-3 WAR 2017 being a reasonable projection, ~25 HRs, ~.800 OPS.

2B- Javy will play here some along with Zobrist, a FA signing and Bote or Happ if he's around. Zobrist might fall off but he hasn't yet and still has good contact and on base skills and he handles the position fine defensively

1B- Rizzo is Rizzo and will probably have a season similar to what he's always had since he's been here

C- Willy just needs to forget everything he ever learned about Chili Ball and they need to find a real backup catcher so he doesn't need to catch as much to let the wear and tear build up. I truly think a little more regular rest and forgetting Chili ball will have him back to his 2017ish offensive self since he's pretty much the same batter this year over last year outside of the Dongs.

 

Rotation:

Q- If he can get the command and Dong suppression back to where it's always been outside of this year it wouldn't be crazy for a low-mid 3 ERA year out of him, but I think expectations should be for a 3.8 or so ERA year and around 3 WAR vs a 3-4+ WAR year.

Lester- He could fall off at anytime but he seems to keep figuring out ways to stay effective, some sort of blend between 2017 and 18 is likely, maybe he's a FIP beater again next year like this year. But I'm expecting a ~4 era and ~2 WAR with some stretches of good and bad.

Hendricks- Kyle will be Kyle, he might throw 83 MPH fastballs the first month but he'll be his usual good self when it's all said and done.

Darvish- He's a wild card, at least he avoided any sort of major surgery and the year off might be a good thing for him to clear his mind a bit between the WS, how he was treated here by the media, his brother in law dying, etc. There's plenty of talent there and he seems to be motivated to come back. I personally have an optimistic outlook that he can be a ~3 WAR pitcher and he'll at least be better than the garbage we were throwing out there in his absence, Chatwood, Underwood, etc.

Monty/Hamels/Smyly/Chatwood/Alzolay/FA- Figure out a way to get a ~4.25 ERA and ~2.5 WAR out of the 5th spot and I'd be happy and it should be doable with the options

 

As a whole it won't be an elite unit but will be plenty good with what should be a top 3-5 offense in MLB along with a good defense behind it, I expect somewhere between 15-18 WAR out of this bunch next year (we are going to end up between 12-13 this year)

 

Bullpen:

Morrow/Carl/Strop/Cishek is a very good core 4. Hold Morrow to a stricter plan and don't let drinky Joe deviate from it. There's a lot of other internal options and we'll probably add 2-3 more options through FA/Trades. It should be a strength again.

 

Overall I think this team is set up plenty fine as is for the next 3 to 5 years and it will be the best team in the division every one of those years and a top NL team. There’s going to have to be more pitching found but that's always the case. Trying to project more than a few years out is hard anyways but we are set up just fine when you try and do it.

Edited September 26, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

Essentially, I don't think this is a result of mis-management because this is what we've always been built around. A big tank followed by a finite run. That we've already got four years out of the run with a chance to grab a couple more is pretty good. Sustained success was never real.

Is sustained success really, real at all in MLB? We already have 4 years out of it and still should have anywhere from 3-5 more years, a near 10 year window is really all you can hope to achieve in this sport before hitting a downward cycle unless you get really lucky and there's still time for that with us. If any of the bats hit from this last draft or IFA period or we have a pitcher or 3 emerge things can change a lot.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They whiffed on the pitchers AND had a pretty negative outcome from the offense all things considered and still are on pace to win 93-94 games. They'd be there already if Chatwood had even been mildly disappointing instead of the unimaginable trainwreck he was, so that's good.

 

But they did whiff on the pitchers. Darvish is basically dead, Chatwood can't be counted on for even long relief for now, Morrow can't be the closer if he requires that much babying, Edwards and Quintana didn't take a step forward, Lester and Zobrist will regress because of age, Baez will regress because he can't walk the tightrope forever. There's some progression to offset(Contreras, probably Bryant, possibly Harper and/or Smyly), and the Dodgers have taught us that you don't need to have an impregnable rotation and lineup to be very good consistently, but the line between the Dodgers and the Nationals is not a thick one.

[jersey cubs fan]

Morrow can't be the closer if he requires that much babying,

 

I disagree. I have no problem with a closer who only goes one inning and doesn't go back to back all that often. The problem is when you don't stick to that plan. The three inning every time closer is a phenomenon that is going to destroy arms in short order and guys are going to refuse to do it in the playoffs very soon.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Morrow can't be the closer if he requires that much babying,

 

I disagree. I have no problem with a closer who only goes one inning and doesn't go back to back all that often. The problem is when you don't stick to that plan. The three inning every time closer is a phenomenon that is going to destroy arms in short order and guys are going to refuse to do it in the playoffs very soon.

 

I think there's a sizable gap between 2016 Andrew Miller/Chapman and what Morrow requires to stay healthy. Morrow was on pace for less than 55 innings, and if the Mets series(pitching 3 straight days where the first outing was 2 pitches and the last only came up when he was the last pitcher available in the 14th) broke him then that sub-55 IP pace is going to end up being problematic, especially in a playoff series.

[Cubswin11]

Morrow can't be the closer if he requires that much babying,

 

I disagree. I have no problem with a closer who only goes one inning and doesn't go back to back all that often. The problem is when you don't stick to that plan. The three inning every time closer is a phenomenon that is going to destroy arms in short order and guys are going to refuse to do it in the playoffs very soon.

 

Yeah I agree with this and is the only thing I really disageeed with in TTs post. They just need to be absolutely firm on Morrow’s usage next year and add 1-2 more decent relief options.

[imb]

They whiffed on the pitchers AND had a pretty negative outcome from the offense all things considered and still are on pace to win 93-94 games. They'd be there already if Chatwood had even been mildly disappointing instead of the unimaginable trainwreck he was, so that's good.

 

what i wonder is how much of the record this year is real and how much of it is a matter of weird circumstance? You can look at the pythag (I think we're +1) and go hey, despite the problems we're right where we should be.

 

But the season was so weird - the pitching was bad early, but somehow still prevented runs. When the run prevention stopped, the bats woke up. Then when the pitching actually woke up, the bats went to sleep.

 

Like which of those three teams is the real one? If we baseball mogul'd this season and replayed it 100 times are we a 93-win team or something much less.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Like which of those three teams is the real one? If we baseball mogul'd this season and replayed it 100 times are we a 93-win team or something much less.

 

if we hadn't been coming into the season with 3 consecutive 90+ win seasons, I can understand this. But given that we have had recent, sustained success it seems like the pythag is right.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Morrow can't be the closer if he requires that much babying,

 

I disagree. I have no problem with a closer who only goes one inning and doesn't go back to back all that often. The problem is when you don't stick to that plan. The three inning every time closer is a phenomenon that is going to destroy arms in short order and guys are going to refuse to do it in the playoffs very soon.

 

Yeah I agree with this and is the only thing I really disageeed with in TTs post. They just need to be absolutely firm on Morrow’s usage next year and add 1-2 more decent relief options.

 

Besides Morrow they had Strop, Edwards, Cishek, and Wilson, plus Montgomery was in the pen for 90% of Morrow's season. They lead the NL in bullpen ERA despite the injuries to Morrow and Strop. How much more depth is reasonably possible?

[davell]

Pitching next year, I'd expect Hendricks, Quintana, Lester, and Darvish to be around 8 WAR. Bullpen gets 3 WAR, could be more, but that's out of what we've got coming back.....

 

Willy gets 3, so do Rizzo and Javy, KB gets 4. Zobrist gets 2, Schwarber and Heyward combine for 5, bench gets 3.....

 

That's 34 WAR, or 82 wins basically, before FA, and with very reasonable expectations out of guys.

 

I hate this season, but even if we don't get Bryce, I think this team wins more games next year than it does this year.

[Cubswin11]

 

I disagree. I have no problem with a closer who only goes one inning and doesn't go back to back all that often. The problem is when you don't stick to that plan. The three inning every time closer is a phenomenon that is going to destroy arms in short order and guys are going to refuse to do it in the playoffs very soon.

 

Yeah I agree with this and is the only thing I really disageeed with in TTs post. They just need to be absolutely firm on Morrow’s usage next year and add 1-2 more decent relief options.

 

Besides Morrow they had Strop, Edwards, Cishek, and Wilson, plus Montgomery was in the pen for 90% of Morrow's season. They lead the NL in bullpen ERA despite the injuries to Morrow and Strop. How much more depth is reasonably possible?

I should've been a little more clear. I meant more in terms for planning to build/replace guys. I expect 1 to come internally, between Monty and Smyly and 1 to come from FA/trade. Basically the depth is the same in number of quality options, just maybe a different guy or two since Monty might be in the rotation and Wilson might be gone. We're still probably going to have the last spot be a Iowa shuttle spot, I don't expect all the bullpen spots to be taken from FA/trade options.

Edited September 26, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

They whiffed on the pitchers AND had a pretty negative outcome from the offense all things considered and still are on pace to win 93-94 games. They'd be there already if Chatwood had even been mildly disappointing instead of the unimaginable trainwreck he was, so that's good.

 

what i wonder is how much of the record this year is real and how much of it is a matter of weird circumstance? You can look at the pythag (I think we're +1) and go hey, despite the problems we're right where we should be.

 

But the season was so weird - the pitching was bad early, but somehow still prevented runs. When the run prevention stopped, the bats woke up. Then when the pitching actually woke up, the bats went to sleep.

 

Like which of those three teams is the real one? If we baseball mogul'd this season and replayed it 100 times are we a 93-win team or something much less.

I bet around 93 wins is the average/median when simulated 100 times, there's probably 10 or so times we hit around/over 100 wins and 10 or so times in mid-low 80s. Given everything that's happened we probably are overachieving a bit at this point but this core group of guys does seem to have some resiliency/unquantifiable ability to get through things better than others.

[Sammy Sofa]

It's simplistic, but I keep coming back to how all of this anxiety is erased if they had just hit more dongs.

 

Yeah, that sounds like "no horsefeathers, Sherlock"-common sense, but it's not even THAT many more dongs, especially given that it's a team that, on paper, should have been clobbering them. They are, STILL, linger at horsefeathering 22nd in dongs in all of baseball. If they had hit, say, 25 more, certainly not unreasonable given the roster, they'd still just be tied for 13th....but then you think back to how they've had SO many games where they've been shutout or only scored 1 run, and it's easy to suddenly see them with 3-5 more wins than they do right now. Their team BA and OBP is still in the top 3...if they had just managed a slugging % better than 14th, they would have easily run away with it.

 

I think it really is as basic as, "they don't hit enough home runs." It's so weird. Or maybe not; maybe most of that is being without Bryant as a power hitter (or at all)....though I gotta think Russell and Contreras seriously helped kill that, too.

[imb]

It's simplistic, but I keep coming back to how all of this anxiety is erased if they had just hit more dongs.

 

Yeah, that sounds like "no horsefeathers, Sherlock"-common sense, but it's not even THAT many more dongs, especially given that it's a team that, on paper, should have been clobbering them. They are, STILL, linger at horsefeathering 22nd in dongs in all of baseball. If they had hit, say, 25 more, certainly not unreasonable given the roster, they'd still just be tied for 13th....but then you think back to how they've had SO many games where they've been shutout or only scored 1 run, and it's easy to suddenly see them with 3-5 more wins than they do right now. Their team BA and OBP is still in the top 3...if they had just managed a slugging % better than 14th, they would have easily run away with it.

 

I think it really is as basic as, "they don't hit enough home runs." It's so weird. Or maybe not; maybe most of that is being without Bryant as a power hitter (or at all)....though I gotta think Russell and Contreras seriously helped kill that, too.

 

60 fewer dongs this year than last

[Sammy Sofa]

It's simplistic, but I keep coming back to how all of this anxiety is erased if they had just hit more dongs.

 

Yeah, that sounds like "no horsefeathers, Sherlock"-common sense, but it's not even THAT many more dongs, especially given that it's a team that, on paper, should have been clobbering them. They are, STILL, linger at horsefeathering 22nd in dongs in all of baseball. If they had hit, say, 25 more, certainly not unreasonable given the roster, they'd still just be tied for 13th....but then you think back to how they've had SO many games where they've been shutout or only scored 1 run, and it's easy to suddenly see them with 3-5 more wins than they do right now. Their team BA and OBP is still in the top 3...if they had just managed a slugging % better than 14th, they would have easily run away with it.

 

I think it really is as basic as, "they don't hit enough home runs." It's so weird. Or maybe not; maybe most of that is being without Bryant as a power hitter (or at all)....though I gotta think Russell and Contreras seriously helped kill that, too.

 

60 fewer dongs this year than last

 

[17 Seconds]

between power/defense/intelligence, javy is going to provide value. i'm not going to be too bummed out if he becomes a 3-4 win guy every year while being fun as hell to watch.

[davell]

Chili Davis' team stats the year before he got there, they the year after he left......

 

2011 Oakland- .244/.311/.369, 114 homers, 8.3%W, 17.9%K 679 runs(year before him)

 

2012 Oakland- .238/.310/.404, 195 homers, 8.9%W, 22.4%K, 713 runs

 

2013 Oakland- .254/.327/.419, 186 homers, 9.7%W, 19.2%K, 767 runs

 

2014 Oakland- .244/.320/.381, 146 homers, 9.4%W, 17.7%K 729 runs

 

2015 Oakland- .251/.312/.395, 146 homers, 7.7%W, 18.1%K 694 runs(year after he left)

 

2014 Boston- .244/.316/..369, 123 homers, 6.6%W, 21.5%K,646 runs(year before him)

 

2015 Boston- .265/.315/.415, 161 homers, 7.7%W, 18.4%K, 748 runs

 

2016 Boston- .282/.348/.461, 208 homers, 8.8%W, 18.3%K, 878 runs

 

2017 Boston- .258/.329/.407, 168 homers, 9.0%W, 19.3%K, 785 runs

 

2018 Boston- .267/.337/.450, 199 homers, 8.9%W, 19.8%K, 833 runs (year after he left) 5 GAMES REMAINruns

 

2017 Chicago- .255/.338/.437, 223 homers, 9.9%W, 22.3%K, 822 runs(year before he got here)

 

2018 Chicago- .258/.333/..411, 163 homers, 9.0%W, 21.9%K, 731 runs 5 GAMES REMAIN

 

The simple- Boston got much better immediately after he left and we got worse as soon as he got here.

 

In Oakland, his walk rates were all better than before he got there. His homers went down from.his first year until his last there. While they went down, his team's K rates did each of his 3 years as well. His team's walk rates were all better than from when he got there too.

 

In Boston, his walk rates went up each of his 3 seasons. His homers topped out in the middle, so did the runs scored. His K rate is down each season than from before he inherited them. The team is up 31 homers and 48 runs this year over last year though, with 5 games left.(And they scored a ton today too that's not included)

 

In Chicago, the walk rate is DOWN, as is the K rate, but the walk rate is down more actually. Homers are down 60, with 5 games left and runs are down 91 too......

 

Is this fireable? Yeah, I think it is.

 

Will be be fired? I'd say it's 40/60, maybe 50/50, that he gets canned. But, if he doesnt, he'll be on an extremely short leash, any struggles next year, and he's an in-season fire.

 

Still, I'd fire him after this season. We took a serious step back. And his track record doesn't get me excited that we'll see some big positive turnaround either. He's a contact preacher coaching a team full of dongers. Not a fit, time to move on quick.

[Billy_Buck]

Haven't seen this from Jeff Sullivan posted:

The Silliest Thing About Kyle Schwarber

 

I don't read anything into it in re clutchness of course. OTOH, the fact that 3 Cubs ranked in his bottom 10 wRC+ by leverage corresponds to the eye test, and to organization comments about "approach" given scoring chances, etc. So yeah, poorly timed impotence has contributed to the limp offense.

 

Hopefully a statistical oddity that reverts next year. (If not sooner.)

[Cubswin11]

So we’re going to hit .800 w/RISP in the playoffs