Cubs Offseason Rumors

[davell]

With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

 

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.

 

 

Guess we'll know for sure soon.

[davell]

 

And they are keeping him.

[Post Count Padder]

With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

 

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.

 

 

Guess we'll know for sure soon.

Yeah that makes sense. And if we have a full pen and he doesn't look bad it's also a trade audition for some team trying to fill the back of their pen. But I like him as a bounceback candidate.

[davell]

We didn't offer Taylor Davis a contract. After the roster movement of the past couple of days, our 40 man is sitting at 34. Its pretty rare to see our FO with this many open spots. My guess is we'll be extremely active in claiming guys this off season. Even moreso than normal.

[Bertz]

With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

 

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.

 

 

Guess we'll know for sure soon.

 

This is why I expected both to be tendered. I figured ~1.5 million was a worthwhile gamble, considering how much payroll we presumably have. Either Rondon's arm is seriously horsefeathered, or we've got less money to play with than I thought. If the latter, I wonder if it means we plan on spending a ton or if we're going to tighten the belt a little in preparation for next winter.

[Cubswin11]

With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

 

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.

 

 

Guess we'll know for sure soon.

 

This is why I expected both to be tendered. I figured ~1.5 million was a worthwhile gamble, considering how much payroll we presumably have. Either Rondon's arm is seriously horsefeathered, or we've got less money to play with than I thought. If the latter, I wonder if it means we plan on spending a ton or if we're going to tighten the belt a little in preparation for next winter.

Even if he is healthy he hasn’t performed well and he wasn’t gonna be cheap. He would get $7-8 mil+, that can go a long ways towards something else rather than for a guy who’d be competing for one of the last bullpen spots.

[davell]

With no follow up on Grimm immediately after, are we holding onto him? We'll know for sure in an hour or so. I think the more I look at it, the more I see reason to keep him.

 

If you tender a player(he's projected to make 2.4), you can still cut him n the spring and only be on the hook for 1/6 of the full amount. So, it may very well be worth paying him 400k, just to see what he looks like in March. And if he's remotely decent, the rest is easily affordable anyway. Could be worth the gamble.

 

 

Guess we'll know for sure soon.

 

This is why I expected both to be tendered. I figured ~1.5 million was a worthwhile gamble, considering how much payroll we presumably have. Either Rondon's arm is seriously horsefeathered, or we've got less money to play with than I thought. If the latter, I wonder if it means we plan on spending a ton or if we're going to tighten the belt a little in preparation for next winter.

 

I don't see money as being an issue. Other than staying under the LT this year, before going over it next year. I have no idea, but in calculating LT, its possible the full amount of Rondon or Grimm's deal could count against it, even if we'd only be paying a small portion of it.

 

No idea if its the case or not, but I wouldn't be surprised if it is. And 6 mill is a decent amount for us, based on how much we've got committed, plus the likely spots and costs of new players.

 

I'm guessing our beginning of the season payroll is in the 170-175 range.

[UMFan83]

[Cubswin11]

Other than throwing strikes I think I Kintzler horsefeathering sucks, especially on a multi-year deal (which I assume he’ll get).

[davell]

Other than throwing strikes I think I Kintzler horsefeathering sucks, especially on a multi-year deal (which I assume he’ll get).

 

I'd be fine with him. He gets a ton of grounders. I'd prefer Neshek, but I'd be OK with either.

[Post Count Padder]

Kintzler isn't bad but he'll get overpaid for having closer experience when, yeah Neshak is a good alternative.

[davell]

I don't know where to put this, so I'm just putting it in here. There's been plenty of talk in articles, about our payroll hitting close to 140 now, after adding Chatwood. No articles are crying poor, by any means, but I've seen some suggest that IF we were to go after Jake or Wade, it'd be an either/or type of thing. That we want to stay under the LT.....Which I'm sure we do.

 

But, our LT number isn't REMOTELY close to 140 right now.

 

Heyward-23

Lester-25.833

Zobrist-14

Chatwood-12.667

Strop-5.925

Rizzo-5.833

Quintana-4.1

 

Total-91.358

 

Arb Eligible Estimates

 

Bryant-8.9

Hendricks-4.9

Wilson-4.3

Grimm-2.4

Russell-2.3

La Stella-1.0

 

Total-23.8

 

115.158 for those 13 players, with Baez, Schwarber, Happ, Almora, Contreras, Edwards, and Montgomery costing about 4 mill TOTAL.

 

So, why is this number so different? Its because you take the average of a contract, not what's being paid out that individual year. We save quite a bit on the LT this year on Heyward, Lester, Zobrist, Rizzo, and Quintana.

 

So anyway, we've got the ability to go do whatever we see fit. And we can do some serious damage AND save for Bryce next year too. We're in much better shape than what the beat guys are seeing right now.

[Bertz]

When calculating the LT, you've also got to be sure to include the guys on the 40 man and insurance payments, which Cot's estimates at about 15.5 million for next year. That plus filling out our roater with league minimum guys puts us at ~138 for next year as of now, and ~161 for 2019 (much less reliable because of arb raises).

 

That puts us about 60 million under the 2018 tax and 45 million under the 2019 tax, as of now.

[davell]

When calculating the LT, you've also got to be sure to include the guys on the 40 man and insurance payments, which Cot's estimates at about 15.5 million for next year. That plus filling out our roater with league minimum guys puts us at ~138 for next year as of now, and ~161 for 2019 (much less reliable because of arb raises).

 

That puts us about 60 million under the 2018 tax and 45 million under the 2019 tax, as of now.

 

The 40 man guys cost what, 200k apiece or so? I figured 15 on the insurance stuff. At any rate, I think we've got close to 50 mill to spend, AFTER Chatwood, and still have about 10 mill leftover for in season moves.

[Tryptamine]

So you figure if things go really well 2M on Rene Rivera,10M on Morrow, 8M on Reed, does that even leave enough to go after Cobb and still have Harper money next year?

[Bertz]

When calculating the LT, you've also got to be sure to include the guys on the 40 man and insurance payments, which Cot's estimates at about 15.5 million for next year. That plus filling out our roater with league minimum guys puts us at ~138 for next year as of now, and ~161 for 2019 (much less reliable because of arb raises).

 

That puts us about 60 million under the 2018 tax and 45 million under the 2019 tax, as of now.

 

The 40 man guys cost what, 200k apiece or so? I figured 15 on the insurance stuff. At any rate, I think we've got close to 50 mill to spend, AFTER Chatwood, and still have about 10 mill leftover for in season moves.

 

150k per person. So 150k x 15 is 2.25 million. I also realize now my wording was a little misleading, the 15.5 million is insurance AND guys on the 40.

 

But yeah I think you're spot on. It makes me wonder if we will make a move or two specifically with the LT in mind. For example, buying out Rizzo or Quintana's options would shift some luxury tax burden from 2019/2020 to 2018. If come February we're 20+ million under the cap, it's something to strongly consider.

[davell]

So you figure if things go really well 2M on Rene Rivera,10M on Morrow, 8M on Reed, does that even leave enough to go after Cobb and still have Harper money next year?

 

I think they're aware they'll be heading over the LT next year. In a perfect world, they'd stay within 20 mill of it, but my guess is they just don't want to go 40 over.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So you figure if things go really well 2M on Rene Rivera,10M on Morrow, 8M on Reed, does that even leave enough to go after Cobb and still have Harper money next year?

 

Yes, because they'll go over the luxury tax next year.

[davell]

When calculating the LT, you've also got to be sure to include the guys on the 40 man and insurance payments, which Cot's estimates at about 15.5 million for next year. That plus filling out our roater with league minimum guys puts us at ~138 for next year as of now, and ~161 for 2019 (much less reliable because of arb raises).

 

That puts us about 60 million under the 2018 tax and 45 million under the 2019 tax, as of now.

 

The 40 man guys cost what, 200k apiece or so? I figured 15 on the insurance stuff. At any rate, I think we've got close to 50 mill to spend, AFTER Chatwood, and still have about 10 mill leftover for in season moves.

 

150k per person. So 150k x 15 is 2.25 million. I also realize now my wording was a little misleading, the 15.5 million is insurance AND guys on the 40.

 

But yeah I think you're spot on. It makes me wonder if we will make a move or two specifically with the LT in mind. For example, buying out Rizzo or Quintana's options would shift some luxury tax burden from 2019/2020 to 2018. If come February we're 20+ million under the cap, it's something to strongly consider.

 

Yeah, I could see that. I think the main thing we try is add one year bullpen options, to keep as much off the books as possible next year.

 

We'll still have the same 7 guys under contract next year, but Quintana goes from 4.1 to 10.5, I guess, unless they use your idea.

 

Even with arb raises and guys hitting it for the 1st time, we're in damn good shape. But, I'd figure on as many one year options as possible, for the pen. With a guy like Morrow or Reed, maybe even Davis, to go with them. And I really think we're going to trade for another cost controlled starter now that Ohtani is gone.

 

But, if we wanted to sign Darvish and bring back Wade, we can do it and stay under in 2018 and have a bit of room for 2019, but they'd have to know that signing Bryce puts them into the 20 over range.

[Cubswin11]

The Orioles are taking calls on Machado...... would you do something like Russell, Almora or Happ, Monty, Alzolay, and other prospects for Machado, Britton and Gausmen or Bundy with no guarantee Machado would be open to signing here after the year (I doubt he’d agree to an extension as part of the trade)? More of just a thought exercise than something I even like or want to do.

[David]

The Orioles are taking calls on Machado...... would you do something like Russell, Almora or Happ, Monty, Alzolay, and other prospects for Machado, Britton and Gausmen or Bundy with no guarantee Machado would be open to signing here after the year (I doubt he’d agree to an extension as part of the trade)? More of just a thought exercise than something I even like or want to do.

 

nope

 

we're good in the infield, on offense, and positionally in general

 

i do want super-team status but i'd rather just do that by signing bryce next year

[CyHawk_Cub]

Yeah, not super-hyped about the idea of spending assets to acquire a rental, especially a positional one. Zero chance Machado doesn't see free agency.

 

Harper or bust for me.

[Cubswin11]

The Orioles are taking calls on Machado...... would you do something like Russell, Almora or Happ, Monty, Alzolay, and other prospects for Machado, Britton and Gausmen or Bundy with no guarantee Machado would be open to signing here after the year (I doubt he’d agree to an extension as part of the trade)? More of just a thought exercise than something I even like or want to do.

 

nope

 

we're good in the infield, on offense, and positionally in general

 

i do want super-team status but i'd rather just do that by signing bryce next year

Yup, pretty much how I feel. Like I said I saw they were taking offers and figured I’d throw out a thought exercise on it and tried to peg what a trade would look like that makes some sense. But I’m totally in the camp of don’t trade anyone this offseason.

[Tim]

Apparently, the Red Sox are interested in Schwarber (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/east-notes-rumors-marlins-red-sox-schwarber-stanton.html).

 

What about a Schwarber for Rodriguez & Barnes trade?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Apparently, the Red Sox are interested in Schwarber (https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/east-notes-rumors-marlins-red-sox-schwarber-stanton.html).

 

What about a Schwarber for Rodriguez & Barnes trade?

 

Rodriguez had knee surgery at the end of last season and will probably miss the beginning of the 2018 season.