The Mock Off Season Thread

[imb]

why are we trading Happ for a broken expensive reliever, Iglesias and an non-prospect

[minnesotacubsfan]

why are we trading Happ for a broken expensive reliever, Iglesias and an non-prospect

 

He did qualify it as stupid

[Post Count Padder]

Rays considering a full rebuild.

 

How does Happ, Almora, Albertos, Caratini, Zagunis, DJ Wilson sound on Kiermaier, Odorizzi and Colome?

[Bobson Dugnutt]

i don’t see archer’s name so it doesn’t sound good.

[davell]

If you part those guys out....I'd say Odorizzi probably brings back a borderline top 100 type, plus a top 30 in a normal system. I'd say Colome brings back a top 100 guy, plus a top 10-15 in the system. Kiermaier? My guess is he'd bring back a top 20 prospect, a top 75ish guy, another guy from the top 10 of a system, and probably a top 30 guy too.

 

Obviously, I'm guessing here. But, the sheer numbers should show that they're just much better off parting those guys into separate deals, than to put them into one.

[toonsterwu]

If you part those guys out....I'd say Odorizzi probably brings back a borderline top 100 type, plus a top 30 in a normal system. I'd say Colome brings back a top 100 guy, plus a top 10-15 in the system. Kiermaier? My guess is he'd bring back a top 20 prospect, a top 75ish guy, another guy from the top 10 of a system, and probably a top 30 guy too.

 

Obviously, I'm guessing here. But, the sheer numbers should show that they're just much better off parting those guys into separate deals, than to put them into one.

 

I think your guess on Odorizzi is probably correct, using past trades as an example. It's a borderline top 100 type, and maybe a couple other parts. In particularly, I'm thinking the Straily and Smyly trades last winter, not perfect comps, but close. My hunch is that Odorizzi's value might be a touch lower than Straily and Smyly's. Put it this way, I'll be mildly surprised if, using our system, someone like Alzolay was required as the headliner to nab him.

[toonsterwu]

Rays considering a full rebuild.

 

How does Happ, Almora, Albertos, Caratini, Zagunis, DJ Wilson sound on Kiermaier, Odorizzi and Colome?

 

If it is a full rebuild, to me, that signals that Archer is on the market. If that's the case, we should go hard after Archer. We might still have a tough time getting him (I'd be hard-pressed to see Andrew Friedman absolutely shut down the idea of Walker Buehler), but this is where our young MLB positional assets become valuable.

[toonsterwu]

Pondering it, if it is a full rebuild for the Rays, I'm not sure we match up all that well. They need an arm or two. That said, of all the organizations out there, they might be willing to take far away high upside guys to slowly groom. Still ... I have a hard time envisioning what that package is for Archer that can't be beat by another organization, unless we venture into moving one of Russell/Baez.

 

I mean ... something like Happ/Schwarber or Almora/Albertos/Alzolay is a huge package, and we'd want more than Archer, but Archer at that contract should get some bids going. Dunno, Archer would be the most intriguing addition to that rotation that I can think of, with his combination of cost, age, and production.

 

Dunno, but that'd be a fun thing to add to this off-season, if the Rays tear down.

[marc_foust]

Nontender Grimm and Rondon saves around 9 mil

 

Sign Cobb 4/58

Sign Chatwood 3/24

 

Sign Rene Rivera 1/3

Sign Cameron Maybin 2/8

 

Sign Bryan Shaw 2/12

Sign Jake McGee 2/15

Sign Joe Smith 2/10

 

Opening day payroll around $171 mil according to mlbtr arb est and fanrag's heyman's expert free agent predictions.

 

Chatwood should eat innings, with some upside but not a ton of risk. Cobb is the big prize and sounds likely. The three pen arms offer late inning experience with McGee and Shaw and innings in Smith. Maybin gives joe the defensive replacement and pinch runner he wants. Rivera seems like a solid fit. This scenario keeps options flexible at the deadline and next off-season. I'm not a huge fan of trading the mlb hitters right now with none of them at a sell high point. But if at the deadline Happ, Russell, schwarber, almora, or Baez have built up trade value then go ahead.

[davell]

I am the walrus: Agree or not? The Cubs will likely sign a lower FA pitcher (Cobb), sign a lower end closer (Reed), sign a middle rp (Mcgee) or two, send a regular (Happ) for a fairly high ceiling young pitcher and spend around $30M of there $70 salary they have to spend.

12:56

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll go bigger on the closer.

12:56

Dave Cameron: If I had to guess, it’d be more like sign Cobb, trade Russell+ for Archer/Colome, sign Reed or Morrow or whoever, call it a winter.

 

Sign me up.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I am the walrus: Agree or not? The Cubs will likely sign a lower FA pitcher (Cobb), sign a lower end closer (Reed), sign a middle rp (Mcgee) or two, send a regular (Happ) for a fairly high ceiling young pitcher and spend around $30M of there $70 salary they have to spend.

12:56

Dave Cameron: I think they’ll go bigger on the closer.

12:56

Dave Cameron: If I had to guess, it’d be more like sign Cobb, trade Russell+ for Archer/Colome, sign Reed or Morrow or whoever, call it a winter.

 

Sign me up.

 

Yeah depending on the +, I’m good with all this. I think they’d still need one more reliever and a couple small pieces on the offensive side, but if these are the main moves made I’ll be happy with the shape the team is in.

[The_Achiever]

I don't want to trade future MVP Addison Russell just quite yet. Feels like we'd be selling low.

[Cubswin11]

Archer scares me that he only throws two pitches and if/when his FB velo dips how effective he can be.

[toonsterwu]

It'd be gutsy, but I think I'd be fine with a Russell + for Archer/Colome package. At the end of the day, it's about the current window right now.

 

_____

 

I keep revisiting one of my initial thoughts from the early offseason - Cesar Hernandez. By all indications, they will listen on him due to their middle infield logjam with Scott Kingery forcing his way into the picture (along with Crawford pushing at short). Now, this only comes into play if the Cubs move Russell or Baez, but Hernandez would be a nice replacement, a capable leadoff option with a good glove at 2nd. The Phillies also have a need for a young OF with some pop, which would allow them focus money on their rotation.

 

If something involving Russell or Baez happened (and that would only happen, in all likelihood, for an impact SP), trying to swing a trade for Happ/? for Hernandez/Neris would be something that fascinated me. It feels like Happ for Hernandez/+ should be a workable package of sort that should be able to appease both sides and fill needs, but maybe spare parts are need both sides

[Tim]

I wonder how cheaply David Price could be had. In addition to the elbow concerns, he got into it with Eck and the team was not happy with the way Price handled the whole thing. He's also got an opt out after 2018. So, if he does well, you'll only get him for a year. If he sucks, you're stuck with a lousy contract.

 

If you'd take on the whole contract, Boston might practically give him away right now. I'd imagine it would take a good player to get them to share in the salary risk, though.

 

Probably not worth it, but I'd at least check in with Dombrowski to see if something could be worked out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Price is owed 4/127 after the opt out and would be 33 for the first season after the opt out. The odds of him opting out are incredibly low.

[toonsterwu]

I think there's a hypothetical involving say David Price, Chris Davis, and Jason Heyward (along with money flowing largely from Red Sox to Cubs but haven't really looked at it) in a three way trade that makes enough sense for all parties, assuming Heyward agreed to a deal (Orioles improve OF defense, move Mancini or Trumbo to 1st and can spend rest of offseason focused on pitching; Red Sox add a power bat for 1st/DH ... can go after a power bat in the OF (JD Martinez), freeing them up to trade an OF for pitching or go sign a FA SP; Cubs add a SP and free up PT for kids).

 

This might be one of the few landing spots for Price that works because, like with Cobb, Maddon/Hickey. He's really scorched earth things there, it sounds like. Albeit, he got Farrell out, and maybe that changes things.

 

In real life, I doubt anything happens with these contracts this off-season.

[Backtobanks]

I think there's a hypothetical involving say David Price, Chris Davis, and Jason Heyward (along with money flowing largely from Red Sox to Cubs but haven't really looked at it) in a three way trade that makes enough sense for all parties, assuming Heyward agreed to a deal (Orioles improve OF defense, move Mancini or Trumbo to 1st and can spend rest of offseason focused on pitching; Red Sox add a power bat for 1st/DH ... can go after a power bat in the OF (JD Martinez), freeing them up to trade an OF for pitching or go sign a FA SP; Cubs add a SP and free up PT for kids).

 

This might be one of the few landing spots for Price that works because, like with Cobb, Maddon/Hickey. He's really scorched earth things there, it sounds like. Albeit, he got Farrell out, and maybe that changes things.

 

In real life, I doubt anything happens with these contracts this off-season.

 

Probably wouldn't happen, but it does make some sense to all involved. I would imagine Heyward's NTC might get in the way. It would look nice with Price in our rotation.

[imb]

I think there's a hypothetical involving say David Price, Chris Davis, and Jason Heyward (along with money flowing largely from Red Sox to Cubs but haven't really looked at it) in a three way trade that makes enough sense for all parties, assuming Heyward agreed to a deal (Orioles improve OF defense, move Mancini or Trumbo to 1st and can spend rest of offseason focused on pitching; Red Sox add a power bat for 1st/DH ... can go after a power bat in the OF (JD Martinez), freeing them up to trade an OF for pitching or go sign a FA SP; Cubs add a SP and free up PT for kids).

 

This might be one of the few landing spots for Price that works because, like with Cobb, Maddon/Hickey. He's really scorched earth things there, it sounds like. Albeit, he got Farrell out, and maybe that changes things.

 

In real life, I doubt anything happens with these contracts this off-season.

 

Probably wouldn't happen, but it does make some sense to all involved. I would imagine Heyward's NTC might get in the way. It would look nice with Price in our rotation.

 

this is exactly who the first response to a complicated three-way trade should be from

[Gilby]

For toonsterwu or anyone else who follows other teams' systems, do you think the presence of Adames would affect how the Rays view Russell, or would they fit well together up the middle?

 

Also I know Archer will make more than Russell the next few years but is it possible Addison would catch or surpass Archer in earnings over the full 4 years by going through arb? Just trying to gauge how realistic a deal is from the Rays' POV. Because for me, having a non QO'd Cozart just sitting out there as a potential replacement for the Cubs is mighty intriguing.

[davell]

For toonsterwu or anyone else who follows other teams' systems, do you think the presence of Adames would affect how the Rays view Russell, or would they fit well together up the middle?

 

Also I know Archer will make more than Russell the next few years but is it possible Addison would catch or surpass Archer in earnings over the full 4 years by going through arb? Just trying to gauge how realistic a deal is from the Rays' POV. Because for me, having a non QO'd Cozart just sitting out there as a potential replacement for the Cubs is mighty intriguing.

 

Adames is ascending. He's not on the level of Russell or Javy, from their time as prospects.....But, he's getting fairly close honestly. If I'm looking at it from Tampa's perspective, I'd prefer Javy, to Addy. I know Addy has played 2B before, but you're not moving him off SS for Adames. You're also not wanting to move Adames either, so taking Javy makes more sense for them, in my mind.

 

And unless Addy(or Javy) broke out huge offensively, I don't see them making Archers money over the next 4 year.

 

From our standpoint, it'd shift us needing Cozart, to needing Neil Walker.

Edited November 17, 2017 by davell

[toonsterwu]

I think it's unlikely that they'll turn down a trade for Russell because of Adames being there. You make it work someway, somehow. If they don't want Russell, it'll be because of concerns about Russell, not because of Adames being there, if that makes sense.

 

I'm not convinced that they'll go for Javier Baez to do an Archer deal. Could be wrong, but Baez doesn't offer the upside of Russell.

 

All that said, gut feeling is that Archer being moved is still unlikely, particularly since I think they would want an arm or two, and I'm not convinced, despite the FO hyping him up, that Alzolay is going to be that significant. The one thing to be said is that the Rays are willing to be patient, as they were with Archer.

 

____

 

It sure feels like, though, that if the Cubs make a trade, they are swinging for a home run, and if not, they'll settle for singles/doubles and bide their time. That is, if they can't find a fit for an impact SP, it might just be Cobb, another SP or two (probably fliers), a couple pen arms, and maybe some depth.

[toonsterwu]

Well, yes, no team is going to prioritize pitching prospects in any trade with the Cubs right now, but I'd imagine, due to how their system stacks right now, that they might prefer an upper level pitching prospect. Perhaps Alzolay is that guy and I'm just remarkably wary on him. Russell would trump a lot of team's initial offers, but there are some scenarios one can imagine where Russell isn't an overwhelming, if at all, trump card to another team's top asset.

[davell]

Or Reyes. Same thing. There's not many elite pitching prospects out there right now. The Braves could quantity their way there, but I doubt AA is going to make that type of move yet.

 

I think if Archer gets dealt, we're in a damn good position.

[toonsterwu]

It wouldn't surprise me, if Archer (or Stroman, or another young, cost-controlled arm was on the market) if

 

a) Washington Nationals put up Victor Robles or Trea Turner in a package.

 

I don't expect the Nationals to want to move either Robles or Turner, but Mike Rizzo might be one of the few GM's out there who really will consider everything. He's got a much better system than given credit for (besides Robles, Juan Soto really emerged, they've got a decent collection of arms (Wil Crowe is one of my favorite under-the-radar guys), and they've got some intriguing young lottery tickets (one of my favorite sleepers in all the minors might be Daniel Johnson ... if he puts it together, that could be stunning ... a big if, though).

 

Don't get me wrong - I don't think they willingly offer up Robles/Turner, but like with the Cubs, in the right deal, wouldn't surprise me if they made the move (and then went out and got a replacement ... say Cozart). It's a win-now or else window to try and convince Bryce.

 

b) Boston Red Sox put up Andrew Benintendi

 

If they sign (JD Martinez) or trade (Giancarlo) and OF, that likely means another move is coming. Jackie Bradley Jr. would be the easier move - Benintendi sliding to center is fine, but Bradley likely doesn't return as much in a trade. System's thinned out a bit, but paired with Benintendi, there would be some nice options to forma trade. It would lead them to make another move if they did shop Benintendi and chips for an arm, but it's Dombrowski.

 

c) Dodgers.

 

Say what you want about Buehler, if they pair Buehler with say, Verdugo, that's a heck of an intriguing package.

 

There's probably a few other teams, like the Brewers (although I can't figure out what that package might be), but skipping ahead to

 

d) Phillies

 

There's all this talk about them wanting to make a big splash and looking to add pitching. This would put a lot of their chips on the table, but they have the assets to get into the conversation.

 

___

 

Yeah, the Cubs should be considered one of the favorites if we put up Addison Russell, but I think there are a few teams that could put up offers that would give the Rays (or Jays, or whomever) some pause.