Bullpen Options

[davell]

TT, I saw your post and I took it as a race, to see who gets this boring ass thread up first.

 

Anyway, we're going to head into 2018 with Wilson, Edwards, Strop, and that's it, as far as certainties go. Montgomery? My guess is he's in the rotation. If he struggles, he'll wind up back in the pen. Maples? Personally, I think he's a big contributor next year. But, Theo made comments today about our pen walking too many people, so Maples definitely has his work cut out for him, in that respect. I'll put Butler here as an option too, as he's out of options and I can see him in Monty's role possibly. Rob Z could also wind up in that roe or possibly in just a regular pen role. We've got Carasiti as a possibility and this Farrell guy too. We also have Rondon and Grimm that are possibly going to be non tendered. Wouldn't surprise me if either is back or if either is gone.

 

At any rate, my guess is we'll add 2-3 guys to the pen. One very likely thru a veteran minor league deal or split contract.

 

Will we bring back Davis or Duensing?

 

No idea. My head tells me that we'll try to find the next Duensing type value thru a split deal, instead of giving him 2/9 or even 1/5. Just a guess.

 

Davis? I gotta say, as much as I love the guy, I don't see our FO giving a 4 year deal to ANY bullpen arm. If he'd take a larger 2-3 AAV? I can see it. Again, just a guess, but I think we'll add a Starting Pitcher on a multi year deal and one pen arm, on the same. But, I doubt they go too far this off season, with Harper and Co on the horizon a year from now......

 

Right Handers that are options.....

 

Bud Norris (62, 10.74/3.92, 4.21/3.90/3.66) had a solid enough year, but probably doesn't have the control needed for what we're looking for.

 

Tommy Hunter(58.2, 9.82/2.15, 2.61/3.07/3.29) had a damn good year and has been acquired once by this FO already.

 

Pat Neshek (62.1, 9.96/0.97, 1.59/1.86/3.26) is a bit older at 37, but seems to be exactly what this FO is looking for.

 

David Hernandez (55, 8.51/1.47, 3.11/2.76/3.79) has really improved his control and I guess he fits what we'll look at too.

 

Matt Albers (61, 9.30/2.51, 1.62/3.40/3.41) had a great year and could be on the radar.

 

Tyler Clippard(60.1, 10.74/4.62, 4.77/4.57/4.71)is a veteran one year option. Not coming off much of a year, he could be cheap and a bounce back guy.

 

Steve Cishek(44.2, 8.26/2.82, 2.01/3.34/3.66)had a solid year, doesn't walk too many, and will get a multi year deal. I'd say he's on the radar.

 

Luke Gregerson (61, 10.33/2.95, 4.57/4.62/3.45)seems like a bounce back type too. Has history with this FO in SD. Loss of velo is a concern, but a one year deal on this guy seems a possibility to me.

 

Greg Holland(57.1, 10.99/4.08, 3.61/3.72/4.05) declined his option and wants to get paid. I guess he's a possibility, but this doesn't seem like our best bet. I'd guess we just keep Davis, if we spend big.

 

Brandon Kintzler(71.1, 4.92/2.02, 3.03/3.77/4.36) has had 2 solid years in a row and doesn't walk guys. Seems like a guy we'd be interested in, just not sure if we'd give him 3 years, which he'll probably get.

 

Brandon Morrow (43.2, 10.31/1.85, 2.06/1.55/2.94) has been lights out this year. Can he be trusted going forward? No idea.

 

Juan Nicasio (72.1, 8.96/2.49, 2.61/2.98/3.63) was claimed by us already, so we'll have interest in him.

 

Seung Hwan Oh(59.1, 8.19/2.28, 4.10/4.44/5.04) had a down year compared to last year, but he's solid.

 

Addison Reed (76, 9.00/1.78, 2.84/3.67/3.85) is really good. I could see us adding him as a guy that competes with Wilson, CJ, and someone else to be the closer.

 

Bryan Shaw (76.2,8.57/2.58, 3.52/2.96/3.20) is the guy I think I'd like to add the most. Him AND Reed would be super nice, but pretty expensive for pen additions.

 

Anthony Swarzak (77.1, 10.59/2.56, 2.33/2.74/3.48) is what? Is he for real? I'm guessing the FO will figure that out.

 

Joe Smith (54, 11.83/1.67, 3.33/2.10/2.39)brings the funk that Maddon likes and is coming off a good year. One year would be OK by me, but he may get a multi year deal.....

 

Lefties

 

Francisco Liriano (97, 7.89/4.92, 5.66/4.64/5.04) doesn't seem like a fit, but as a swing guy, I guess he'd garner a look?

 

Jake McGee (57.1, 9.10/2.51, 3.61/2.93/3.95)bounced back, has history with Joe.....I'd be in favor of adding him.

 

Mike Minor(77.2, 10.20/2.55, 2.55/2.62/3.59) came out of nowhere to be damn good. Has pedigree and an injury history. Boom or bust addition.

 

Tony Watson (66.2, 7.16/2.70, 3.38/4.45/4.29)had a down year but looked solid late. He'd be a nice one year addition.

 

Fernando Abad (43.2, 7.63/2.89, 3.30/3.68/4.37)is your typical lefty that'll get a major league deal. He's decent, nothing more.....

 

Boone Logan(21, 12.00/3.86, 4.71/3.16/3.11)is coming off a shoulder injury and walks a decent amount of guys, but he's been of interest to us, in the past.

 

I'll add much more to this later, will put stats in for these guys and will glance to add more players too, but just wanted to get the thread up.

 

I can see us trading for a guy, but until rumors of who may be out they're, I'm not going to warrant many guesses on that front.....

 

In parentheses, I'm adding IP, then K/9 and BB/9, then ERA/FIP/xFIP.

 

 

And by going thru these guys, its apparent that there's plenty of help out there. They're may only be Davis that's truly considered elite, but who knows how much longer he'd hold that label himself. I want to keep him, but there's enough out there to really enhance the pen quite a bit.

Edited October 20, 2017 by davell

[Cubswin11]

I’m in the bring back Wade camp for a Melancon type deal. Him + McGee would be ideal then throw some horsefeathers against the wall with some ST invites/minor league deals. Liriano is another guy I like as a bullpen option. I’m also firmly in the keep Monty in the swing man/bullpen role to start the year and not 1 of the 5 starters to start the year.

 

Shaw, Nicasio and McGee would be a nice trio to bring in if Wade goes to spread out the money he’d cost to keep himself.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Theo thinks some of the problem with walks, especially in the playoffs, was due to the organizational approach, e.g. being too fine in hitters counts: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/10/19/theo-epstein-takes-blame-for-cubs-pitchers-wildness-notably-in-bullpen/

 

So if that's correct, then hopefully you see some slight improvements from the likes of Edwards and Montgomery(if he's in the pen) from doing a little less nibbling.

 

That said, I think you'll see a bit of a priority in strike throwing this year as a result. Guys like like Shaw and Nicasio. From the left side, I imagine they'll find another Duensing, but it's tough to tell about targets since LHRP are heavy on guys with control problems, and Duensing is an example of a guy who did not look at all desirable after his 2016.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Another name to mention is Japanese closer Yoshihisa Hirano (34 next year), who apparently the Cardinals are interested in.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Another name to mention is Japanese closer Yoshihisa Hirano (34 next year), who apparently the Cardinals are interested in.

 

COUNTERPOINT

 

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[sweetpeteman]

Theo thinks some of the problem with walks, especially in the playoffs, was due to the organizational approach, e.g. being too fine in hitters counts: http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2017/10/19/theo-epstein-takes-blame-for-cubs-pitchers-wildness-notably-in-bullpen/

 

 

This doesn't surprise me, even confirming some of my thoughts on how the bullpen was being run. However, I was thinking it was less being too fine vs. them being coached to make their best pitch, even at the cost of some control, leading to more movement/nastier pitches, but having the side effect of more walks.

 

 

As for the bullpen: Uehara can walk. Duensing wouldn't be a bad re-signing, but only at the right price (1 yr, $5m or less). Grimm and Rondon should be non-tendered (I don't see them tendering to Rondon, not at $6m+, I could see them tendering Grimm and then DFAing him in the spring).

 

Personally, I wouldn't bring back Davis. I think he's on the edge of decline, maybe even significantly. The only reason I would bring him back is that, since this does seem to be a full market for relievers, he could be forced to take less than he was expecting. If they do re-sign him, it'll be a 3-4 year deal with at about $15m a season.

 

I would target one or two from: Davis, McGee, Minor, Reed, Shaw, Nicasio, Kintzler, and maybe Holland, or Morrow, but they concern me more than the rest.

 

And then look at guys like Cishek, Neshek, Duensing to round out the pen.

 

 

One guy I would look into giving a ST invite/minor league deal/maybe even a cheap ($1-2m) MLB deal to try to convert is Ubaldo Jiminez. I know it's a small sample size, but this year in 17.1 relief innings he put up some promising numbers (10.70 k/9, 2.04 bb/9, 2.20 FIP, 2.87 xFIP, .637 OPS).

[Bote McBoteface]

Sign everybody. Give me Reed, Shaw, Nicasio, Kintzler, Swarzak, Mcgee and Morrow. Trade for Colome and Hand.

[toonsterwu]

We're gonna sign guys, no doubt about it, but I'd be as open to the idea of moving some arms into a fast-track pen lane.

 

Anyhow, I offered up the combination of Gregerson/McGee, but Shaw/Swarzak and others would work as well.

 

I would also explore the trade market. Brad Brach comes to mind ... but here's a name I never imagined that I might be curious about getting back - Blake Parker. He turned in a quality season this year, is about to get a bit more expensive, and I wonder if the Angels might want to sell high on him (he's a bit older) to try and get more significant assets. Tis a thought. Probably not, as they'll probably view him as a cheap, solid pen arm.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Reed, Swarzak, Nicasio, Kintzler and Shaw are the names that jump out at me. Lots of options from the right side. McGee is the only lefty there that intrigues me.

 

Last offseason there was talk of trading for Colome or Edwin Diaz. Both kind of had down years this season, but I'd still be interested in either. Can they be had at the right price, and are their down years cause for long-term concern?

[bauermj]

Biggest names I saw: Davis, Holland, Reed, McGee (LHP), Morrow, Nicasio, Shaw, Kintzler, Romo, Cishek, Swarzak, Belisle, Minor (LHP), Watson (LHP)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

FYI I made the executive decision to remove the FA from the thread title, since I think the FA and trade options here are intertwined.

 

Last offseason there was talk of trading for Colome or Edwin Diaz. Both kind of had down years this season, but I'd still be interested in either. Can they be had at the right price, and are their down years cause for long-term concern?

 

Trade names that jump out to me:

 

Brad Hand - terrific two years and likely available

 

Colome - like you mention, had a down year. Velocity wasn't down but appeared to be scattershot from outing to outing. Not sure how Tampa stands on him, but seems a similar candidate to what Davis was post-2016

 

Herrera - Another guy who is very similar to Davis post-2016, right down to being the Royals closer. Almost certainly available

 

Robertson - the Yankees have no less than 4 other terrific relievers, and they might view Robertson's 13 million as more of a luxury than they want to bear if they want to get under the luxury tax before the 2018 FA class. Trading Robertson doesn't look absolutely necessary to do that though.

 

Britton/Brach/Givens - Who knows what the Orioles are thinking, at the moment they seem to be content to run it back and miss the playoffs before losing Machado. If they do blow it up we have yet another Davis-esque closer candidate in Britton, Brach is very good and wouldn't command a huge haul as he is 1 year from FA, and Givens is also quite good and has several years of control

[Bertz]

I'd love to get one guy near the top of the market (Brandon Morrow?) and then for the other spot(s) I'd wait until after the new year. There are enough set-up type guys who are going to need jobs that I'd bet we can get an impact guy on a good deal, kind of like how the Mets got Addison Reed this past winter.

[Clem Fandango]

Any chance the D-Backs shop Archie Bradley? He dominated in the pen this year so they don't really have a reason to, but he'd be a nice addition.

[toonsterwu]

I definitely would be curious what it would take to get Robertson. Yankees are loaded in the pen,and they might have to shell out big bucks for Masahiro Tanaka. I mean, Sabathia's gone, leaving the core rotation as Severino/Gray and three big question marks. It's clear that their window is open, and it's hard to imagine Chance Adams AND Justus Sheffield starting next year in the rotation. 1 of the 2 (Adams as the 5th starter) seems plausible. For all the talks about Yankees money, Hal has, relatively speaking, trimmed things down. Robertson wouldn't require a long time commitment, and is a proven closer. All that said, I've never loved Robertson, and I'm not sure how we match up. Tbh,pondering it now, I wouldn't be absolutely stunned if they shopped Betances, although it would be somewhat selling low on him. Betances might be able to net them something more significant, or be a part of a package to net them something more significant. They sure do have a lot of options, though.

 

As for the Orioles, they do seem to be leaning towards keeping most of the pieces together. I think it's a mistake, personally, but it seems likely they'll explore the market for a veteran starter or two to fill in behind Gausman/Bundy. How, dunno, since they aren't exactly loaded with chips and don't have it in their DNA to spend big on FA SP's. I mean, the system has guys who feel like late inning pen arms types (Tanner Scott comes to mind, Cody Sedlock should be moved back to the pen to salvage something). Feels like a team would have to overwhelm them for them to move someone. Givens is likely being groomed as the closer of the future there.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here's a Fangraphs leaderboard with all the noteworthy free agent arms(if I missed any lemme know): http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7731,8110,4090,10586,7550,9346,7196,7441,10021,7466,1157,4682,3132,3281

 

When you look at it, there's a few tiers that start to develop:

 

Traditional closers: Davis, Holland

 

Big stuff with a fairly significant question mark about their future: McGee, Morrow, Swarzak, maybe Hunter

 

Solid all around, pretty good stuff, strike thrower, but not going to be an elite monster: Reed, Nicasio, Shaw

 

Very good strike throwers without closer stuff: Neshek, Smith, Gregerson

 

Lefty-specific value: Minor, Watson

[Liam Neeson]

I wonder what kind of market Oh and Petit are going to draw. They both don't walk that many people.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jay Jackson may be making a comeback!

 

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He was always one of my irrational favorite minor leaguers.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Jay Jackson may be making a comeback!

 

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He was always one of my irrational favorite minor leaguers.

you know that's Perd Hapley's real name, right?

 

[Tryptamine]

Jay Jackson, one of my favorites when I first started really paying attention to the system. I was so sure that Jay was going to be a monster and Tony Thomas was going to be our 2B for years to come.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Jay Jackson, one of my favorites when I first started really paying attention to the system. I was so sure that Jay was going to be a monster and Tony Thomas was going to be our 2B for years to come.

 

Whoa I don’t even remember this name

[Cubswin11]

I was a big Tony Thomas fan back in the day, I too had high hopes for him.

[Clem Fandango]

Isn't there someone around here who still has Jay Jackson as their avatar?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Jay Jackson may be making a comeback!

 

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He was always one of my irrational favorite minor leaguers.

you know that's Perd Hapley's real name, right?

 

 

Jay was a local ABC reporter here before hitting it big as Perd.

[toonsterwu]

I'd be fine with adding Jay Jackson. Always thought he deserved a longer look in the majors, particularly after he shifted full-time to the pen. Was one of my irrational favorites coming up. If the slider is still plus, that's a capable middle relief arm with some fringe setup potential.

 

I remember Tony Thomas as well. Had that monster season in Boise. He even had a decent last year in the Cubs system, where he raked in ... were we still in West Tennessee at the time? I want to say yes, but off the top, not sure. He hung around for a long time in the minors.

[CubsWin]

I like Juan NIcasio and Jake McGee has the 2 main FA adds to the bullpen. Each should be able to be signed for a reasonable AAV (something less than 10 million a year). That would give the Cubs a solid corps of relievers.

 

Nicasio

McGee

Strop

Edwards

Wilson

Montgomery

 

Then you can look at a group of guys that you can get on cheaper 1-year deals like Luke Gregerson, Zach Duke, Tommy Hunter, Huston Street and outside the box guys like Jay Jackson. Finally let guys like Eddie Butler, Dillon Maples, Rob Zastryzny and the guys the Cubs picked up on waivers battle it out for the 8th spot (assuming Maddon goes that route again).

 

I like the ideas some have put forth in the trade market, too.

 

I think there are a lot of acceptable combinations from who's available that I'd be happy with. I believe in Nicasio's and McGee's stuff and the likelihood they sign for reasonable amounts.