Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

[muntjack]

It all goes in to the mix together. If our roster was a giant void, pat Willson on the back and get what you can. If you think he'll come back on a reasonable deal in the offseason, do the same, but there are only a few catchers in the game that aren't a liability on one side of the ball. We have arguably the very best one and, critically, this team has misrepresented how far away it is from contention.

 

Here's some NL position player rankings in fWAR (min. 250 PAs)

 

11. Nico

15. Willson

23. Happ

38. Morel

55. Wisdom

 

With Suzuki, that's six positions filled more than adequately. The back 3/5 of the rotation should be a strength next season, as well.

[Rex Buckingham]

 

Not when ownership is straight up lying about how much money they have to spend. It's all part of the equation.

 

If I clearly have the income to spend X on a new car and could do so without overextending myself at all or preventing myself from making other significant purchases by doing so, but instead I choose to limit myself to 60% of X as what I want to spend, my budget constraint isn't 60% of X. It's still X. I'm just choosing to limit myself to 60% of X to spend on a car.

 

yeah but he's talking about the constraints that ownership puts on the GM.

 

you can spend whatever you want on a car, but if you tell your kid they can only spend 60%, they can only spend 60%

 

He said the Cubs as an organization shouldn’t have budget constraints but they do. The Cubs as an organization don’t have budget constraints. The owners are being cheap and don’t want to spend. We’re not the A’s or the Rays. They have budget constraints.

 

EDIT: Regardless, the Ricketts suck and I know we can all agree on that.

 

While they don't have as much money as the other owners, let's not pretend that ANYONE who owns a professional sports team doesn't have enough money to pay anyone. They're all ridiculously rich. They just don't want to cut into their profit margin, just like every other rich bastard in this country.

[squally1313]

 

yeah but he's talking about the constraints that ownership puts on the GM.

 

you can spend whatever you want on a car, but if you tell your kid they can only spend 60%, they can only spend 60%

 

He said the Cubs as an organization shouldn’t have budget constraints but they do. The Cubs as an organization don’t have budget constraints. The owners are being cheap and don’t want to spend. We’re not the A’s or the Rays. They have budget constraints.

 

EDIT: Regardless, the Ricketts suck and I know we can all agree on that.

 

While they don't have as much money as the other owners, let's not pretend that ANYONE who owns a professional sports team doesn't have enough money to pay anyone. They're all ridiculously rich. They just don't want to cut into their profit margin, just like every other rich bastard in this country.

 

Yep. Oakland's owner was worth $2.2b in 2015. Rays owner, per google, is worth $800m. Everyone plays this game, ours just do it in a much more explicitly garbage way.

[Irrelevant Dude]

If you think he'll come back on a reasonable deal in the offseason, do the same

That sounds great in theory, but I'll eat my hat if it actually happens. Willson's value on the open market will almost certainly be higher than what the Cubs would have had to pay to extend him, and his prospect return isn't enough to justify playing that game if the Cubs actually wanted to bring him back. He will sign elsewhere, just like all the others.

[muntjack]

I agree

[SpongeWorthy]

That doesn't mean that there haven't been any discussions at all. It may just mean that there is a large enough gulf between expectations that there was no reason to go further.

 

[Tryptamine]

It's actually kind of amazing that they managed to not extend a single player from all that talent that surged into the system in 2015-2017. Schwarber, Baez, Bryant, Contreras, Soler, Russell, Happ and none, for various reasons, were with the Cubs past their original deals. All that's left from 2016 is Hendricks now, right?

[muntjack]

Yeah. I never thought they'd keep them all, but I certainly didn't anticipate salting the earth, either. Some of those, as much as they hurt, made sense. This lineup would have been pretty great with Rizzo and Kyle in it.

 

Morel 2B

Nico SS

Happ LF

Rizzo 1B

Willson C

Schwarber DH

Suzuki RF

Wisdom 3B

Ortega CF

[NOLA]

 

To muntjack’s point, I get some of the deals, but what a load of BS we were fed.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Reward Nico with an extension that buys out some FA years, plant a flag on Morel with a longer term deal, or show faith in Steele or Thompson with guaranteed money. There's value in not being on the 6 year treadmill with every young player who lands at your feet, and while there is risk involved(e.g. no one is putting Bote's name on the roster in pen), it's a useful and ultimately small thing they can do to signal their intent even if the bigger statements of intent like large FA deals are (sometimes justifiably) not the best choice for the moment.

This offseason sure seems like the right time to try to get a Nico extension done. With the team likely being a couple years away from beginning its next serious contention window, that will put them near the end of his arbitration years. It would be great to be able to tack another year or two on the end of that deal now to ensure that he will still be around when the team is (hopefully) ready to compete.

 

What do Nico's peripherals say about whether his performance is sustainable? To me it appears the only question is whether he can stay healthy. The 5% walk rate could be slightly concerning, but it isn't a huge deal with everything else considered.

[Cubswin11]

I feel like a Nico extension is in the 5/55-75 range guaranteed and then an option year or two. He’s hitting arb 1 next year and controlled next 3 years.

[Derwood]

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[UMFan83]

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horsefeathers my life. Just imagine the first time a Cardinal gets a big strikeout of a Cub and seeing Willson hopping up from behind the plate and pumping his fist in celebration.

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horsefeathers my life. Just imagine the first time a Cardinal gets a big strikeout of a Cub and seeing Willson hopping up from behind the plate and pumping his fist in celebration.

 

I would be incredibly surprised if they sign him. Between what he's likely to get paid, the Arrenado and Goldschmidt contracts and the fiery personality, just doesn't seem like a great fit. And much like the McGwire replacement was always going to have enormous pressure to perform, just not being Molina will be enough of a knock against the next guy that it's probably not a great investment overall for them next year.

[squally1313]

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horsefeathers my life. Just imagine the first time a Cardinal gets a big strikeout of a Cub and seeing Willson hopping up from behind the plate and pumping his fist in celebration.

 

I would be incredibly surprised if they sign him. Between what he's likely to get paid, the Arrenado and Goldschmidt contracts and the fiery personality, just doesn't seem like a great fit. And much like the McGwire replacement was always going to have enormous pressure to perform, just not being Molina will be enough of a knock against the next guy that it's probably not a great investment overall for them next year.

 

On the other hand, Contreras has been more valuable this season than Molina has been in the last four seasons combined, so any sort of competency back there might be received well in a pleasantly surprised way.

[Andy]

 

horsefeathers my life. Just imagine the first time a Cardinal gets a big strikeout of a Cub and seeing Willson hopping up from behind the plate and pumping his fist in celebration.

 

I would be incredibly surprised if they sign him. Between what he's likely to get paid, the Arrenado and Goldschmidt contracts and the fiery personality, just doesn't seem like a great fit. And much like the McGwire replacement was always going to have enormous pressure to perform, just not being Molina will be enough of a knock against the next guy that it's probably not a great investment overall for them next year.

 

On the other hand, Contreras has been more valuable this season than Molina has been in the last four seasons combined, so any sort of competency back there might be received well in a pleasantly surprised way.

The only reason Contreras being there might be tolerable is seeing a certain segment of STL fans have to grapple with seeing how much better he is (and has been for a long time) than future Hall of Longevity inductee Molina.

 

But yeah, no.

[CubinNY]

Jed says that they will make a qualifying offer to Willy, thus depressing his value in free agency. I hope he takes the offer although I don't think we will.

[UMFan83]

Jed says that they will make a qualifying offer to Willy, thus depressing his value in free agency. I hope he takes the offer although I don't think we will.

 

There’s also this

 

[soccer10k]

Jed says that they will make a qualifying offer to Willy, thus depressing his value in free agency. I hope he takes the offer although I don't think we will.

 

There’s also this

 

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So Willy’s coming back then. Thanks for the info, Bob!

[MWV]

Jed says that they will make a qualifying offer to Willy, thus depressing his value in free agency. I hope he takes the offer although I don't think we will.

Oooh! Does that mean we might get one of the cardinals' competitive balance draft picks?

[Andy]

According to Jeff Passan's article today, there was a deal in place to trade Contreras straight up for Jose Urquidy but the Astros owner refused to approve it and Dusty was against it on the grounds of Contreras was a free agent and would be gunning for his own numbers.

[Cubswin11]

That would’ve been such a good move, horsefeathering Dusty. And man that makes me feel even better about Jed if he had that effectively negotiated and done before a meddling owner/Dusty stepped in.

[UMFan83]

According to Jeff Passan's article today, there was a deal in place to trade Contreras straight up for Jose Urquidy but the Astros owner refused to approve it and Dusty was against it on the grounds of Contreras was a free agent and would be gunning for his own numbers.

 

That is very Dusty

[Clem Fandango]

According to Jeff Passan's article today, there was a deal in place to trade Contreras straight up for Jose Urquidy but the Astros owner refused to approve it and Dusty was against it on the grounds of Contreras was a free agent and would be gunning for his own numbers.

 

That is very Dusty

 

"Gunning for his own numbers" lol oh no our trade acquisition is out performing his already elite level of offensive performance for his position in the middle of a pennant race because he's not gonna be here next year, what a piece of horsefeathers.

[CubinNY]

According to Jeff Passan's article today, there was a deal in place to trade Contreras straight up for Jose Urquidy but the Astros owner refused to approve it and Dusty was against it on the grounds of Contreras was a free agent and would be gunning for his own numbers.

 

That is very Dusty

Yes, his logic is very bad. He said he didn't want him bitching about playing time. 1) He's a better catcher than anyone you have 2) He's a better DH than anyone you have. Figure out a way to get him ABs. Also, they were asking for a back of the rotation pitcher who has 3 years of team control. I would have been pretty pissed at that outcome.

 

Dusty is the poster boy for being in the right place at the right time. He's managed more star-quality players than any manager in the 21st centry.