Gigantic Willy Style - The Willson Contreras Thread

[CubinNY]

 

I mean we just signed a very high profile guy in Suzuki and by all accounts our pitch to him was great and we also got Stroman, who had plenty of suitors. I still trust they can get a guy they desire to target.

 

But yeah, I’m kinda good with shopping/not extending Contreras unless the extension is on the teams terms. The injury risk/wear and tear with aging catchers aren’t low and Contreras hasn’t even stayed all that healthy as a younger guy. I’d love to keep him but get not extending him at this moment if it’s not on the right terms.

I don't understand this thinking at all unless you think Amaya is going to be ready to step in next year or the year after. MLB catching is a black hole of suck and Contreras is already here.

 

I think it's precisely because MLB catching is a "black hole of suck" that the Cubs would adopt this approach.

 

Look at the fWAR leaderboards for catching last year. Contreras comes in 12th, surrounded by guys who aren't particularly well-regarded. And that's because most catchers either hit well or defend well, but only a sparse handful do well at both.

 

Contreras can hit, but he's just not much of a defender at a position with a really high bar for it. And ultimately, that's the problem. I'm sure Jed looks at the catching marketplace and realizes that paying for a defensive specialist who can put up comparable total value to Contreras is going be a heck of a lot cheaper than a flashy, offense-first guy like Contreras.

That’s a lot words for being so wrong.

[Cubswin11]

I like Jed a lot, I think he's very good. That said, he seems to pretty clearly have a small market set of sensibilities. He and Theo were good about not leaking disagreements, but the ones we've gotten make it seem like in their partnership Theo was Chris Traeger and Jed was Ben Wyatt. Without Theo in the room, I'm a little worried about whether he'll have the stones to say go grab Juan Soto in a year or two.

 

I love Wilson, but this is one where I'm very comfortable with Jed at the wheel. Catchers are like pitchers where they're such injury risks that you don't want to lock them down until you absolutely have to.

 

I mean we just signed a very high profile guy in Suzuki and by all accounts our pitch to him was great and we also got Stroman, who had plenty of suitors. I still trust they can get a guy they desire to target.

 

But yeah, I’m kinda good with shopping/not extending Contreras unless the extension is on the teams terms. The injury risk/wear and tear with aging catchers aren’t low and Contreras hasn’t even stayed all that healthy as a younger guy. I’d love to keep him but get not extending him at this moment if it’s not on the right terms.

I don't understand this thinking at all unless you think Amaya is going to be ready to step in next year or the year after. MLB catching is a black hole of suck and Contreras is already here.

It doesn’t necessarily need to be because of Amaya, who at this point idk how much they can depend on him. But they have Gomes for the next two years and he basically matched Willy in WAR last year. They could find a vet/platoon option for Gomes (Jason Castro, Barnhart are FA for example) if Willy leaves or is traded and probably match or exceed his production vs committing big years and money to Contreras at a position that has a lot of volatility/attrition.

 

As I said, I’m kinda fine only keeping Contreras on our terms and feel you can match his production for less money/risk through FA/trade and use the money/resources elsewhere.

 

And if they do extend Willy I’d hope they start using him at DH/1B or even some LF a lot more since the value is in the bat and it keeps him healthier/fresher.

Edited March 21, 2022 by Cubswin11

[Rob]

I don't understand this thinking at all unless you think Amaya is going to be ready to step in next year or the year after. MLB catching is a black hole of suck and Contreras is already here.

 

I think it's precisely because MLB catching is a "black hole of suck" that the Cubs would adopt this approach.

 

Look at the fWAR leaderboards for catching last year. Contreras comes in 12th, surrounded by guys who aren't particularly well-regarded. And that's because most catchers either hit well or defend well, but only a sparse handful do well at both.

 

Contreras can hit, but he's just not much of a defender at a position with a really high bar for it. And ultimately, that's the problem. I'm sure Jed looks at the catching marketplace and realizes that paying for a defensive specialist who can put up comparable total value to Contreras is going be a heck of a lot cheaper than a flashy, offense-first guy like Contreras.

That’s a lot words for being so wrong.

 

Be butthurt about it all you want. I'm just trying to explain what I imagine Jed is seeing.

 

Willson is a guy whose bat has to carry him, but he's thirty years old, has a lot of mileage behind the plate, and his recent offensive numbers have taken a dip. If you want to believe he's immune to the forces that routinely derail catching careers, I hope you are right. But I think it's more likely than not that we've seen his best years.

[Janelle-Alexis]

Yep, Bryant and Rizzo and Hendricks are not dripping in charisma or particularly expressive players, but they were/are favorites because they were really good for several years. If Hoerner or Madrigal or Suzuki or Davis or even Wisdom or Schwindel are really good, people will love them too.

 

I love tacos because they taste good and would also love rotten eggs if they tasted like tacos.

 

Sewer rat may taste like pumpkin pie, but I'd never know because Nico can't stay healthy for 50 games.

[Thusly Boned]

Yep, Bryant and Rizzo and Hendricks are not dripping in charisma or particularly expressive players, but they were/are favorites because they were really good for several years. If Hoerner or Madrigal or Suzuki or Davis or even Wisdom or Schwindel are really good, people will love them too.

 

I love tacos because they taste good and would also love rotten eggs if they tasted like tacos.

 

I think one of the things that's also difficult to accept is that our "tacos" were in fact rotten eggs by the end. Just rotten eggs all around.

 

Our offense (partially on the strength of Schwindel's unsustainable performance, given) actually got better after the trade off, which is an indictment of what the core had become given what the roster looked like in the second half. Team couldn't consistently score runs for a couple of years plus, and only the residual taste of 2016 saved them from being turned on.

[We Got The Whole 9]

What teams aren't operating this way? The Braves had their homegrown star lead them to a WS and apparently told him flat out, "if you don't take this extension, we're going to trade for Olson" and did so that very day, while extending him as well.

 

The Dodgers let their homegrown star walk without much of a fight, because they traded for his replacement in the middle of the season.

 

What pisses me off is how seemingly easy it has been for other teams to lock up their young guys and ensure theyll be around for 8-10 years. The White Sox pull this off with just about all of em. The Braves got Acuna (sort of understandable I guess because he got a pittance as an IFA) and Albies for dirt cheap.

 

I look at Baez and have to believe, like, say, after 2015, he would possibly have taken something along those lines. Were we still in wait-and-see mode, probably. But that was a guy with such a boom/bust profile that he may have jumped at it. Or Schwarber after 2016. After that injury and his dedication to returning and performing like that on the biggest stage, feels like a great set-up for an early extension, as long as it was reasonable from our end.

 

I'm not at all surprised with what's going on with Contreras, though. Just hope he bounces back offensively and has a hot market.

[CubinNY]

Dear Jed and Tom,

 

[CubinNY]

My emotions exactly

 

[CubinNY]

If you’re on Twitter you probably saw the meet and greet Willy did with the fans today at the shirt store. What a great person. The Ricketts don’t deserve a guy like that. He’s right up there for me with Andre Dawson and Aramis as my favorite Cubs.

[Old Style]

The Ricketts family has done what a lifetime of mostly losing never did. I don't care about the Cubs any more. horsefeathers them up the poop chutes with the largest rusty knife in the world. Some may think I'm being overdramatic but they have killed what was once a large part of my life and the #1 way my father and I connected. He was the biggest Cubs fan ever and he didn't live long enough to see 2016. I hate that but I'm also glad he's not around to see the horsefeathers show this franchise has become.

[CubinNY]

The Ricketts family has done what a lifetime of mostly losing never did. I don't care about the Cubs any more. horsefeathers them up the poop chutes with the largest rusty knife in the world. Some may think I'm being overdramatic but they have killed what was once a large part of my life and the #1 way my father and I connected. He was the biggest Cubs fan ever and he didn't live long enough to see 2016. I hate that but I'm also glad he's not around to see the horsefeathers show this franchise has become.

It sort of kills me that they are in the top 10 in attendance. They bought a gold mine and are intent on wringing out every last flake of gold.

 

I've tried to separate the team from the owners and compartmentalize as much as possible my love for the Cubs and baseball and the owners. I'm not going to Wrigley, but I'm not going to let them ruin my passion for the Cubs or baseball.

[squally1313]

Yeah I don't really disagree with anything you're saying but...I love Willson and Kyle Hendricks and kinda Happ (who has seemingly done great things for players behind the scenes) and I would enjoy loving Hoerner and Morel and Seiya and maybe even Steele/Thompson down the road, not to mention the 37 teenagers we have in the minors. I love Wrigley, even if it's in large part for nostalgic reasons at this point (the area around it is very tough, but once you make it in the bleachers...). I love baseball. I don't know. They suck. But most of what I like is probably eventually owned by someone shitty once you get far enough up the chain. See the Coachella owners making huge donations to pro life republicans. It's a terrible system and we should do what we can do improve it, but still think I should enjoy some of these things.

[Tryptamine]

The Ricketts family has done what a lifetime of mostly losing never did. I don't care about the Cubs any more. horsefeathers them up the poop chutes with the largest rusty knife in the world. Some may think I'm being overdramatic but they have killed what was once a large part of my life and the #1 way my father and I connected. He was the biggest Cubs fan ever and he didn't live long enough to see 2016. I hate that but I'm also glad he's not around to see the horsefeathers show this franchise has become.

 

I haven't watched a full game since 2019. There's basically no more emotional investment into this team anymore.

[Irrelevant Dude]

The Ricketts family has done what a lifetime of mostly losing never did. I don't care about the Cubs any more. horsefeathers them up the poop chutes with the largest rusty knife in the world. Some may think I'm being overdramatic but they have killed what was once a large part of my life and the #1 way my father and I connected. He was the biggest Cubs fan ever and he didn't live long enough to see 2016. I hate that but I'm also glad he's not around to see the horsefeathers show this franchise has become.

 

I haven't watched a full game since 2019. There's basically no more emotional investment into this team anymore.

I still watch games all the time, but I understand the sentiment and I know several people who used to follow the Cubs very closely and have basically stopped watching them entirely over the past few years. There is risk involved in operating the team like an analytical sports simulation, which can be contradictory to maintaining a fan base over the long term. There is a point where the "smart" business move might not be the best thing for the long term health of the franchise. Do you really want to sever one of the last links to the 2016 championship team (Contreras), while creating yet another giant hole to fill? How can you expect to build a loyal fan base if the organization fails to reciprocate that loyalty to both the fans and players? Maybe this new rebuild works and we have another 3-4 year playoff run, but then what? Then it's time to trade Davis, PCA, Amaya, etc. and start over again. We can't expect the team to re-sign everyone all the time, but there are times when re-signing a player might be the right thing to do even though the computer says otherwise. Contreras is the exact type of player that the team should be looking to keep around and bridge the gap to the proverbial "next great Cubs team", yet somehow that idea has never seriously been entertained. It's one thing to rebuild and be smart about spending money, but this team shouldn't be operating like the Tampa Bay Rays.

[squally1313]

The Ricketts family has done what a lifetime of mostly losing never did. I don't care about the Cubs any more. horsefeathers them up the poop chutes with the largest rusty knife in the world. Some may think I'm being overdramatic but they have killed what was once a large part of my life and the #1 way my father and I connected. He was the biggest Cubs fan ever and he didn't live long enough to see 2016. I hate that but I'm also glad he's not around to see the horsefeathers show this franchise has become.

 

I haven't watched a full game since 2019. There's basically no more emotional investment into this team anymore.

I still watch games all the time, but I understand the sentiment and I know several people who used to follow the Cubs very closely and have basically stopped watching them entirely over the past few years. There is risk involved in operating the team like an analytical sports simulation, which can be contradictory to maintaining a fan base over the long term. There is a point where the "smart" business move might not be the best thing for the long term health of the franchise. Do you really want to sever one of the last links to the 2016 championship team (Contreras), while creating yet another giant hole to fill? How can you expect to build a loyal fan base if the organization fails to reciprocate that loyalty to both the fans and players? Maybe this new rebuild works and we have another 3-4 year playoff run, but then what? Then it's time to trade Davis, PCA, Amaya, etc. and start over again. We can't expect the team to re-sign everyone all the time, but there are times when re-signing a player might be the right thing to do even though the computer says otherwise. Contreras is the exact type of player that the team should be looking to keep around and bridge the gap to the proverbial "next great Cubs team", yet somehow that idea has never seriously been entertained. It's one thing to rebuild and be smart about spending money, but this team shouldn't be operating like the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

To play devils advocate: If the team wins, the fans will be there. We're now 6 years removed from the WS team. It sucks that it played out this way but, as a comparison, here are key members of the 2016 team that were on the roster in 2014:

 

Rizzo (breakout season in 2014)

Baez (hit .169, spent most of 2015 in the minors)

Coghlan (traded from Oakland in 2016)

Arrieta (breakout 2014)

Hendricks (called up down the stretch, pitched great)

Rondon

Strop

Grimm

 

That's 8 guys (and stretching it a lot on Coghlan and Grimm) that were on the team just 2 years before the 2016 team. This is a bad team right now, it's been a bad team for a whole calendar year. Yes, a lot of that is self inflicted, which is garbage, but the fans (which are already showing up) will be selling the place out as soon as the record flips, regardless of the players on the field.

[Old Style]

I'm honestly not sure if the Cubs winning again, which if we are being honest is probably at least 3-4 years away, will bring me back. This feels like I am at a breaking point. I don't really get any joy out of watching MLB at all anymore. Texas A&M's run to Omaha helped keep me engaged with the sport to some extent but my level of care for what once was my favorite sport is on life support.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I haven't watched a full game since 2019. There's basically no more emotional investment into this team anymore.

I still watch games all the time, but I understand the sentiment and I know several people who used to follow the Cubs very closely and have basically stopped watching them entirely over the past few years. There is risk involved in operating the team like an analytical sports simulation, which can be contradictory to maintaining a fan base over the long term. There is a point where the "smart" business move might not be the best thing for the long term health of the franchise. Do you really want to sever one of the last links to the 2016 championship team (Contreras), while creating yet another giant hole to fill? How can you expect to build a loyal fan base if the organization fails to reciprocate that loyalty to both the fans and players? Maybe this new rebuild works and we have another 3-4 year playoff run, but then what? Then it's time to trade Davis, PCA, Amaya, etc. and start over again. We can't expect the team to re-sign everyone all the time, but there are times when re-signing a player might be the right thing to do even though the computer says otherwise. Contreras is the exact type of player that the team should be looking to keep around and bridge the gap to the proverbial "next great Cubs team", yet somehow that idea has never seriously been entertained. It's one thing to rebuild and be smart about spending money, but this team shouldn't be operating like the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

To play devils advocate: If the team wins, the fans will be there. We're now 6 years removed from the WS team. It sucks that it played out this way but, as a comparison, here are key members of the 2016 team that were on the roster in 2014:

 

Rizzo (breakout season in 2014)

Baez (hit .169, spent most of 2015 in the minors)

Coghlan (traded from Oakland in 2016)

Arrieta (breakout 2014)

Hendricks (called up down the stretch, pitched great)

Rondon

Strop

Grimm

 

That's 8 guys (and stretching it a lot on Coghlan and Grimm) that were on the team just 2 years before the 2016 team. This is a bad team right now, it's been a bad team for a whole calendar year. Yes, a lot of that is self inflicted, which is garbage, but the fans (which are already showing up) will be selling the place out as soon as the record flips, regardless of the players on the field.

 

Agreed, success (both individual and team) is always going to be the biggest driver. No one bemoaned losing the connection to the success of 2016 when Almora or Russell was kicked to the curb, or got contemplative about the business of baseball when they moved on from Quintana or Chatwood. People are dying to not look at Heyward in a Cubs uni anymore, it's always gonna come down to the belief that they can continue to be successful and play a part in the team continuing to be successful.

 

That said, I think the front office(and I say front office because I believe the org's current state is about 90% front office driven and 10% ownership) really could stand to do what it takes to avoid this circumstance with *all* of the next round of players. Reward Nico with an extension that buys out some FA years, plant a flag on Morel with a longer term deal, or show faith in Steele or Thompson with guaranteed money. There's value in not being on the 6 year treadmill with every young player who lands at your feet, and while there is risk involved(e.g. no one is putting Bote's name on the roster in pen), it's a useful and ultimately small thing they can do to signal their intent even if the bigger statements of intent like large FA deals are (sometimes justifiably) not the best choice for the moment.

[Bertz]

 

Oh man

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm honestly not sure if the Cubs winning again, which if we are being honest is probably at least 3-4 years away, will bring me back. This feels like I am at a breaking point. I don't really get any joy out of watching MLB at all anymore.

 

Same. It would be one thing if it was just the Cubs, or only a few teams like them, but basically it's like the whole damn thing is broken. It feels like when football pushed me away almost a good ten years ago now. There's just no "good team" out there; they're all run by total assholes.

[Derwood]

I'm honestly not sure if the Cubs winning again, which if we are being honest is probably at least 3-4 years away, will bring me back. This feels like I am at a breaking point. I don't really get any joy out of watching MLB at all anymore.

 

Same. It would be one thing if it was just the Cubs, or only a few teams like them, but basically it's like the whole damn thing is broken. It feels like when football pushed me away almost a good ten years ago now. There's just no "good team" out there; they're all run by total horsefeathers.

 

I have some bad news for you about TV, Hollywood, book publishers…

[CyHawk_Cub]

There's just no "good team" out there; they're all run by total horsefeathers.

That's "pioneering, risk-taking job creators" to you, bub.

[CubinNY]

 

Oh man

Kills me. Like I’m 7 years old again and they traded Madlock.

[CubinNY]

This one hurts a lot more than last year for a lot of reasons.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'm honestly not sure if the Cubs winning again, which if we are being honest is probably at least 3-4 years away, will bring me back. This feels like I am at a breaking point. I don't really get any joy out of watching MLB at all anymore.

 

Same. It would be one thing if it was just the Cubs, or only a few teams like them, but basically it's like the whole damn thing is broken. It feels like when football pushed me away almost a good ten years ago now. There's just no "good team" out there; they're all run by total horsefeathers.

 

I have some bad news for you about TV, Hollywood, book publishers…

 

No horsefeathers, sherlock.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I still watch games all the time, but I understand the sentiment and I know several people who used to follow the Cubs very closely and have basically stopped watching them entirely over the past few years. There is risk involved in operating the team like an analytical sports simulation, which can be contradictory to maintaining a fan base over the long term. There is a point where the "smart" business move might not be the best thing for the long term health of the franchise. Do you really want to sever one of the last links to the 2016 championship team (Contreras), while creating yet another giant hole to fill? How can you expect to build a loyal fan base if the organization fails to reciprocate that loyalty to both the fans and players? Maybe this new rebuild works and we have another 3-4 year playoff run, but then what? Then it's time to trade Davis, PCA, Amaya, etc. and start over again. We can't expect the team to re-sign everyone all the time, but there are times when re-signing a player might be the right thing to do even though the computer says otherwise. Contreras is the exact type of player that the team should be looking to keep around and bridge the gap to the proverbial "next great Cubs team", yet somehow that idea has never seriously been entertained. It's one thing to rebuild and be smart about spending money, but this team shouldn't be operating like the Tampa Bay Rays.

 

To play devils advocate: If the team wins, the fans will be there. We're now 6 years removed from the WS team. It sucks that it played out this way but, as a comparison, here are key members of the 2016 team that were on the roster in 2014:

 

Rizzo (breakout season in 2014)

Baez (hit .169, spent most of 2015 in the minors)

Coghlan (traded from Oakland in 2016)

Arrieta (breakout 2014)

Hendricks (called up down the stretch, pitched great)

Rondon

Strop

Grimm

 

That's 8 guys (and stretching it a lot on Coghlan and Grimm) that were on the team just 2 years before the 2016 team. This is a bad team right now, it's been a bad team for a whole calendar year. Yes, a lot of that is self inflicted, which is garbage, but the fans (which are already showing up) will be selling the place out as soon as the record flips, regardless of the players on the field.

 

Agreed, success (both individual and team) is always going to be the biggest driver. No one bemoaned losing the connection to the success of 2016 when Almora or Russell was kicked to the curb, or got contemplative about the business of baseball when they moved on from Quintana or Chatwood. People are dying to not look at Heyward in a Cubs uni anymore, it's always gonna come down to the belief that they can continue to be successful and play a part in the team continuing to be successful.

Those guys were all much different.

 

In Contreras, you have:

• A homegrown player who signed with the organization at age 17
  A player who is at/near his prime and will still be only 30 years old on Opening Day 2023
  One of, if not the, best offensive Catcher in the league
  A player who, by all accounts, wants nothing more than to stay with the Cubs
  A team leader on and off the field
  

 

Why wouldn't he be the type of guy that you want to reward with a multi-year deal, or at least attempt to get a deal done? If the team is planning to compete somewhere around 2024-2025, a 32 year old Contreras could still be a key contributor on that team.