Starting Pitching candidates

[Tedward]

One of the guys at MLBTR was estimating contracts in his chat and mentioned Lynn at 4/60, Cobb around 4/48, and Chatwood on an Ivan Nova(3-26) type of deal, then mentioned he's the one guy there that thinks he'll get a 3rd year.

 

If THOSE are the numbers, Chatwood at 3/26 is a no-brainer. I'm happy as hell with Cobb too, at 4/48. Forget Lynn.

 

He also mentioned Mike Minor probably gets a Darren O'Day type of deal.(4/31)

 

If the prices are this low, I'm going to be surprised.

 

I agree with you, those prices seem way too low. Heck, Mike Leake got a 5/80 deal last offseason... I think that's the starting point for Cobb & Lynn.

[davell]

One of the guys at MLBTR was estimating contracts in his chat and mentioned Lynn at 4/60, Cobb around 4/48, and Chatwood on an Ivan Nova(3-26) type of deal, then mentioned he's the one guy there that thinks he'll get a 3rd year.

 

If THOSE are the numbers, Chatwood at 3/26 is a no-brainer. I'm happy as hell with Cobb too, at 4/48. Forget Lynn.

 

He also mentioned Mike Minor probably gets a Darren O'Day type of deal.(4/31)

 

If the prices are this low, I'm going to be surprised.

 

I agree with you, those prices seem way too low. Heck, Mike Leake got a 5/80 deal last offseason... I think that's the starting point for Cobb & Lynn.

 

I'll play Devils Advocate AGAINST myself and you now lol. Leake had pitched 3 straight seasons of at least 192 innings, and 4 years of having made at least 30 starts as well.

 

Chatwood has never thrown more than 158 innings in the majors and has an injury history as a pro. Cobb has never thrown 180 innings and also has the injury history.

 

These things account for something obviously. Just no idea as to how much.

 

Brandon McCarthy may be a good test case for Cobb, at least the MLBTR guy brought him up.....McCarthy had never pitched lots of innings either and had quite an injury history(but I don't remember arm-related for him?). The year he hit FA though, he had just thrown a 200 inning season and got 4/48.

 

So, maybe 4/48 is on the money or even slightly high on Cobb? At any rate, I'd do it and not think twice. Which may not speak well for my thought process. Its just the class is sooooooo damn weak.

[Tedward]

One of the guys at MLBTR was estimating contracts in his chat and mentioned Lynn at 4/60, Cobb around 4/48, and Chatwood on an Ivan Nova(3-26) type of deal, then mentioned he's the one guy there that thinks he'll get a 3rd year.

 

If THOSE are the numbers, Chatwood at 3/26 is a no-brainer. I'm happy as hell with Cobb too, at 4/48. Forget Lynn.

 

He also mentioned Mike Minor probably gets a Darren O'Day type of deal.(4/31)

 

If the prices are this low, I'm going to be surprised.

 

I agree with you, those prices seem way too low. Heck, Mike Leake got a 5/80 deal last offseason... I think that's the starting point for Cobb & Lynn.

 

I'll play Devils Advocate AGAINST myself and you now lol. Leake had pitched 3 straight seasons of at least 192 innings, and 4 years of having made at least 30 starts as well.

 

Chatwood has never thrown more than 158 innings in the majors and has an injury history as a pro. Cobb has never thrown 180 innings and also has the injury history.

 

These things account for something obviously. Just no idea as to how much.

 

Brandon McCarthy may be a good test case for Cobb, at least the MLBTR guy brought him up.....McCarthy had never pitched lots of innings either and had quite an injury history(but I don't remember arm-related for him?). The year he hit FA though, he had just thrown a 200 inning season and got 4/48.

 

So, maybe 4/48 is on the money or even slightly high on Cobb? At any rate, I'd do it and not think twice. Which may not speak well for my thought process. Its just the class is sooooooo damn weak.

 

Well, that's the thing, supply and demand... the class is so weak, I agree... once you get past Darvish and Arrieta, the next tier of guys are going to get paid too. Everyone's looking for starting pitching... I've already braced myself for the Yankees getting Otani, if he decides to come over.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

I agree with you, those prices seem way too low. Heck, Mike Leake got a 5/80 deal last offseason... I think that's the starting point for Cobb & Lynn.

 

I'll play Devils Advocate AGAINST myself and you now lol. Leake had pitched 3 straight seasons of at least 192 innings, and 4 years of having made at least 30 starts as well.

 

Chatwood has never thrown more than 158 innings in the majors and has an injury history as a pro. Cobb has never thrown 180 innings and also has the injury history.

 

These things account for something obviously. Just no idea as to how much.

 

Brandon McCarthy may be a good test case for Cobb, at least the MLBTR guy brought him up.....McCarthy had never pitched lots of innings either and had quite an injury history(but I don't remember arm-related for him?). The year he hit FA though, he had just thrown a 200 inning season and got 4/48.

 

So, maybe 4/48 is on the money or even slightly high on Cobb? At any rate, I'd do it and not think twice. Which may not speak well for my thought process. Its just the class is sooooooo damn weak.

 

Well, that's the thing, supply and demand... the class is so weak, I agree... once you get past Darvish and Arrieta, the next tier of guys are going to get paid too. Everyone's looking for starting pitching... I've already braced myself for the Yankees getting Otani, if he decides to come over.

 

Better the Yankees than the Dodgers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How do we get Dave Cameron into the GM's chair in Seattle:

 

JC: Happ for James Paxton. Who says no?

 

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mariners, just because they already don’t have enough pitching and have okay options at 2B/OF. But Cubs might not want to turn Happ into a guy who can’t stay healthy either. Not sure it’s unfair, just maybe not what either team is wanting to do.

[Some Guy]

I think the whole market sees that Cobb would be a very good get. I see him getting Samardzija money. From us. And I'm widdit.

[Some Guy]

Early prognosticators seem to think Lynn is equal to or above Cobb. But pretty soon everyone will come to the conclusion that they'd rather have Cobb by far.

 

Lynn wants 110/5. Doubt he gets it but I do think Cobb will get more than him, and rightly so.

[Bertz]

I expect this winter to be weird. Last year's class was pretty awful, and yet pretty much everyone except the high-end relievers (And Ian Desmond for some reason) got less than expected. A lot of people think that with the 2018 bonanza on the horizon, teams weren't willing to spend just to spend, and that kind of screwed the middle class of free agents. I could see more of the same this year, perhaps to an even more extreme degree.

[Tedward]

How do we get Dave Cameron into the GM's chair in Seattle:

 

JC: Happ for James Paxton. Who says no?

 

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mariners, just because they already don’t have enough pitching and have okay options at 2B/OF. But Cubs might not want to turn Happ into a guy who can’t stay healthy either. Not sure it’s unfair, just maybe not what either team is wanting to do.

 

Yeah, lot's of Cub chatter in Cameron's chat today.

[SouthSideRyan]

How about Glasnow as a back of the pen rehab project?

 

ETA: I assumed he was out of options, and kept hearing how frustrated the Pirates were with him. Both of these things may be untrue.

Edited October 25, 2017 by SouthSideRyan

[Cubswin11]

How do we get Dave Cameron into the GM's chair in Seattle:

 

JC: Happ for James Paxton. Who says no?

 

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mariners, just because they already don’t have enough pitching and have okay options at 2B/OF. But Cubs might not want to turn Happ into a guy who can’t stay healthy either. Not sure it’s unfair, just maybe not what either team is wanting to do.

He also seems to think Russell is the most likely gone by some of his comments. God I hope he’s wrong and just being his usually dumb self.

[ConstableRabbit]

I used to make fun of Cameron a lot, then I googled him and saw his chemo photos from his battle with Leukemia. He still has a lot of really stupid takes but man, that sucks.

[Cubswin11]

If we do end up with Otani how does that change the likelihood we trade one of the major league position players? To me if we get him I don’t trade anyone for a pitcher and just use money on Cobb, Chatwood, Jake, etc.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

How about Glasnow as a back of the pen rehab project?

 

ETA: I assumed he was out of options, and kept hearing how frustrated the Pirates were with him. Both of these things may be untrue.

 

He's definitely not yet out of options. I think the Pirates would be smart to just stick him in the bullpen.

[davell]

If we do end up with Otani how does that change the likelihood we trade one of the major league position players? To me if we get him I don’t trade anyone for a pitcher and just use money on Cobb, Chatwood, Jake, etc.

 

I think that's what we'd do too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I used to make fun of Cameron a lot, then I googled him and saw his chemo photos from his battle with Leukemia. He still has a lot of really stupid takes but man, that sucks.

 

I generally like his thought processes, but he's one of those personalities that has suffered from having his opinions being exposed to the wider internet for so long. The idiots have made him immune to self-reflection, thankfully he's a bright enough guy that he doesn't have too many bad first opinions that end up sticking.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How do we get Dave Cameron into the GM's chair in Seattle:

 

JC: Happ for James Paxton. Who says no?

 

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mariners, just because they already don’t have enough pitching and have okay options at 2B/OF. But Cubs might not want to turn Happ into a guy who can’t stay healthy either. Not sure it’s unfair, just maybe not what either team is wanting to do.

He also seems to think Russell is the most likely gone by some of his comments. God I hope he’s wrong and just being his usually dumb self.

 

I will say that if they're going to trade Russell, it's going to be going big, like the Archer possibility he mentioned. I don't see Russell getting traded for the next version of Drew Pomeranz or w/e. With that in mind I can see that being an outcome, but I don't think Cameron's confidence/insistence is a good barometer of how likely it is.

[Cubswin11]

How do we get Dave Cameron into the GM's chair in Seattle:

 

He also seems to think Russell is the most likely gone by some of his comments. God I hope he’s wrong and just being his usually dumb self.

 

I will say that if they're going to trade Russell, it's going to be going big, like the Archer possibility he mentioned. I don't see Russell getting traded for the next version of Drew Pomeranz or w/e. With that in mind I can see that being an outcome, but I don't think Cameron's confidence/insistence is a good barometer of how likely it is.

Yeah to me if we trade Russell it has to be Archer/Stroman level pitcher and even then I think that’s just shuffling value and don’t know how it makes us that much better. I’ll trust the FO with whatever they do but I find it hard to think trading Russell is a good move for us.

[CubinNY]

I never saw this one during the summer:

 

https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2017/7/16/15979550/mlb-trade-rumors-blue-jays-marcus-stroman-cubs

 

The Toronto Blue Jays were seeking a major-league player from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for starting pitcher Marcus Stroman in talks before the Cubs acquired Jose Quintana, according to Peter Gammons.

 

Please make it happen!

Indeed, they can have Schwarber.

[champaignchris]

Is Mike Minor a viable candidate for a swing type of pick up? Become the Mike Montgomery if Montgomery starts full time.

[Cubswin11]

Is Mike Minor a viable candidate for a swing type of pick up? Become the Mike Montgomery if Montgomery starts full time.

Theo’s comments last week were pretty clear that Monty is gonna remain the swing guy.

[toonsterwu]

At some of those numbers, I would rather take a flyer on a guy coming off a bad year, like Wade Miley, than giving multiple years to a middling arm. Prior to this year, Wade's 2 years in the AL weren't that far off from his NL days, when, IIRC, the Red Sox front office (not Theo, but Cherington and Co. probably had a lot of similar thought processes) thought he could be a poor man's Jon Lester.

 

The command bottoming out is worrisome, although one wonders if a lot of the Orioles pitchers simply didn't respond that well to Roger McDowell, so he probably won't get more than a 1 year deal, or some sort of structured 2 year deal (option, triggers, something) but taking him on a flyer, like uh ... who was it at the start of the year, Brett Anderson ... it might be better than giving multiple years to another one of those middling arms. If he struggled, you could conceivably flip him with Montgomery (splits), and go looking for a 5th starter at mid-season. Of course, this would require perhaps landing a bigger fish in the off-season, in all likelihood.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I just prefer they go back to their 2012/2013 ways in FA this offseason and not overspend on middle tier talent like an Alex Cobb. The BOR doesn’t need anything but innings, no reason they can’t just go find another Scott Feldman-y guy or two.

 

That's exactly what Cobb is, just a bit more expensive than Feldman because it's 5 years of inflation later.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Cobb is not going to get 5/90.

[Cubswin11]

That’s true, probably more Brandon McCarthy with the inflation bump, which was already mentioned. 4 heads isn’t so bad. I retract the Cobb portion of that post.

Yeah he’s probably somewhere between McCarthy and Leake