Starting Pitching candidates

[cubsclapp]

Gray has looked excellent once he got his sea legs under him. I'd love to get him from Oakland if he stays healthy.

 

I didn't read the whole thread, so I'm not sure if this was covered, but if they go big to get a TOR arm with control (Archer) I have a sneaking suspicion Addy will be the centerpiece. Just a thought I had the other day that I can't shake.

 

To me... if they're trading Addison Russell, they'd better be getting something like Noah Syndergaard back. Addison was just a 4-win player as a 22-year-old. Even with his struggles this year, he's still been worth 1.1 bWAR because he leads all shortstops in DRS by a lot. He was a 3-win player as a rookie with a .696 OPS.

 

He's not going to keep hitting *this* poorly, and we know he has the ability to be quite a bit better offensively. So, I just wouldn't really want to get rid of a 3+ WAR player that is still just 23 and with upside, unless I'm getting a significant pitcher back. Bats > arms, especially ones that are awesome shortstops. I don't know if the team is getting any better in an Archer for Russell swap, for example, and I especially wouldn't bet on that being the case over the next 5 years. Use Eloy and company way before that.

 

You're not getting a guy like Thor for Addison Russell and you're not getting Archer with Eloy as the headliner. Picking one WAR and running with it like that and then switching back to another when convenient is disingenuous. Two other sites have Russell at 0.3 WAR so far this season. Since, if they traded Russell, Baez would assume the starting duties this is how projections see it working out for this season only:

 

fWAR: Baez currently at 0.4 WAR with a projection of 1.4 WAR in limited PAs. Russell currently at 0.3 WAR with a projection of 2.0 WAR moving forward without factoring in his kind of demotion.

 

bWAR: This is super crude math coming at you because it's just extrapolation, which favors Baez since he's being sat against tough righties, but Baez is at 1.1 fWAR in 160 PAs, and Russell is at 1.6 in 199 PAs. Extrapolate that out to 600 PAs and you're looking at 4.1 and 4.8 respectively.

 

WARP: Baez has been worth 0.5 WARP and projected for 0.8 WARP RoS (287 PAs). Russell has been worth 0.3 WARP and 1.3 WARP (392 PAs) projected moving forward.

 

So just swapping out Russell and Baez isn't a huge loss in the immediate future and adding Archer over Eddie Butler is kind of a huge upgrade and solves rotation questions for a couple years, until Archer gets hurt and ruins everything. Of course, that leaves no backup SS option at the moment and hurts the depth, but that might be a worthwhile swap in risk. I don't know if I'd do a Russell+ for Archer swap, but it's not some crazy overpay either.

 

I'm not actually saying they could really get someone like Thor (he's not going anywhere). My point was simply that's the only kind of arm I'm trading Addison Russell for (and I understand Archer is 2nd in fWAR right now himself). He's too valuable and a sure thing to at least be a "good" player with his glove, and he was a 4-WAR player as recently as last year. He plays the most important position on the diamond, is just 23 with the ability to get much better, and pitchers break.

 

I also don't think Javy playing shortstop everyday would go as swimmingly as we like to think. He's an awesome second baseman and third baseman, but over a full year at shortstop he's probably pretty average. You'll also see his offensive value dip with everyday playing time vs tough right-handed pitching. I loooove Javy, but we're also seeing his plate discipline get uglier by the day. He has one (!) unintentional walk in 160 plate appearances. He had a 1.3 BB% vs righties last year.

 

I agree that, for this year, it could absolutely make the Cubs better because of the significant value Archer adds over Butler, and more importantly, being able to match up with the Nats' and Dodgers' arms in the playoffs. Right now, we wouldn't feel great about Strasburg vs Hendricks in the first round, or Arrieta vs one of their No. 3's unless he picks things up a bit. Archer would greatly change things.

 

I also agree that it's not even necessarily an overpay (and the exact kind of return the Rays should be demanding), but it's just not in the best interest of these Cubs. If it were about just winning for this year, sure, look into it.

[CubinNY]

I want Archer back.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Foltyneweicz followed up a 5 run clunker with 2 scoreless appearances. Has a 2.65 ERA over his last 6 starts and a 3.55 ERA on the season now. Still would like to know the price.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Foltyneweicz followed up a 5 run clunker with 2 scoreless appearances. Has a 2.65 ERA over his last 6 starts and a 3.55 ERA on the season now. Still would like to know the price.

 

But he suuuuucks, his "good" years have come with FIPs between 4.2-4.5.

 

I wouldn't mind throwing them a prospect to rent Garcia before or after a bigger trade.

 

I guess that's better than Julio Teheran's 5.70 FIP.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Foltyneweicz followed up a 5 run clunker with 2 scoreless appearances. Has a 2.65 ERA over his last 6 starts and a 3.55 ERA on the season now. Still would like to know the price.

 

But he suuuuucks, his "good" years have come with FIPs between 4.2-4.5.

 

I wouldn't mind throwing them a prospect to rent Garcia before or after a bigger trade.

He's 25 years old with 280 MLB innings. I know you don't think you can make that declaration so soon.

[davell]

I like Folty. I think there's upside there. Its not like these guys follow a playbook and are what they are, by a certain age.

 

But, I've asked before.....What reason do they have to deal him, unless they get something they really covet? He's probably going to cost us Happ+. I'd rather go get someone a bit more established for a chip of that value.

[davell]

Double

[We Got The Whole 9]

I like Folty. I think there's upside there. Its not like these guys follow a playbook and are what they are, by a certain age.

 

But, I've asked before.....What reason do they have to deal him, unless they get something they really covet? He's probably going to cost us Happ+. I'd rather go get someone a bit more established for a chip of that value.

Not sure now that he's possibly turning a corner, but they still need 3B production and it seems like Candelario should interest them. When I originally brought him up I was thinking a Candy+Clifton based package.

 

If Happ were necessary, then I agree with you.

 

The thing is, I think Theo is trying to make Happ, Eloy, and Cease untouchable. I just don't see him going for Archer or another TORP like Quintana. I think he'll be looking for an ascending guy who is kind of under the radar. Guys whose shine has dimmed slightly but still show the talent.

 

So those are the guys I'm looking at.

[davell]

I like Folty. I think there's upside there. Its not like these guys follow a playbook and are what they are, by a certain age.

 

But, I've asked before.....What reason do they have to deal him, unless they get something they really covet? He's probably going to cost us Happ+. I'd rather go get someone a bit more established for a chip of that value.

Not sure now that he's possibly turning a corner, but they still need 3B production and it seems like Candelario should interest them. When I originally brought him up I was thinking a Candy+Clifton based package.

 

If Happ were necessary, then I agree with you.

 

The thing is, I think Theo is trying to make Happ, Eloy, and Cease untouchable. I just don't see him going for Archer or another TORP like Quintana. I think he'll be looking for an ascending guy who is kind of under the radar. Guys whose shine has dimmed slightly but still show the talent.

 

So those are the guys I'm looking at.

 

The Braves need more than just 3B though. There's plenty of teams that can and would offer a better headliner than that. And the Braves would take it, instead of just filling a hole with a decent guy.(and I like Candelario honestly). Pitchers with that much team control and with flashes of upside.....They're going to bring back a much better headliner than Candelario unfortunately. And that's if they are looking to trade the guy, which I doubt the Braves are trying to do, with Folty.

 

I'd love it, if that could get him. I just don't think it can.

[Cubswin11]

Cease should be far from untouchable, for Foltywhatever yeah sure but he should be very available for the right guy(s).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Foltyneweicz followed up a 5 run clunker with 2 scoreless appearances. Has a 2.65 ERA over his last 6 starts and a 3.55 ERA on the season now. Still would like to know the price.

 

But he suuuuucks, his "good" years have come with FIPs between 4.2-4.5.

 

I wouldn't mind throwing them a prospect to rent Garcia before or after a bigger trade.

 

I guess that's better than Julio Teheran's 5.70 FIP.

 

Unless there's a compelling reason to think Teheran is hurt, then yes I would jump all over buying low on Teheran's crappy May.

[Agony and Ivy]

 

But he suuuuucks, his "good" years have come with FIPs between 4.2-4.5.

 

I wouldn't mind throwing them a prospect to rent Garcia before or after a bigger trade.

 

I guess that's better than Julio Teheran's 5.70 FIP.

 

Unless there's a compelling reason to think Teheran is hurt, then yes I would jump all over buying low on Teheran's crappy May.

 

And his 17% K-rate and diminishing velocity? I'd rather just run Eddie Butler or Montgomery out there than give up anything of value for Julio Teheran.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I guess that's better than Julio Teheran's 5.70 FIP.

 

Unless there's a compelling reason to think Teheran is hurt, then yes I would jump all over buying low on Teheran's crappy May.

 

And his 17% K-rate and diminishing velocity? I'd rather just run Eddie Butler or Montgomery out there than give up anything of value for Julio Teheran.

 

I don't really see diminished velocity from Teheran, especially given the data issue with making comparisons to previous years cloudy. He's obviously had a terrible stretch, but that can pretty easily be flukish and/or a mechanical tweak away from being resolved. But that's how buying low works, there's always going to be legitimate reason to say 'ew I don't want that', but now that the Braves are seeing very clearly they aren't in contention and they still have a jillion arms to make room for, getting Teheran at a discount has the potential to work very well.

[davell]

1) He may correct his early season issues. 2) The fact that that's possible, is exactly why the Braves won't sell low on him currently.

 

Seriously, you can buy low on the Eddie Butlers of the world or some guys that have had multiple down years in a row.....There's literally no chance the Braves sell him off for pennies on the dollar NOW, when they've got him for 3 more years after this and he can regain value over that point. There's also no reason for a team to give them true value for him currently, because he's looked like complete horsefeathers. Couple that with the fact the Braves LOVE him and wanted a metric ass ton for him two years ago, didn't even listen to offers for him last year.....Sorry, its really just common sense that they're not going to let a bad start to a year, dictate them selling low on him.

 

On top of that, they DO have a ton of arms.....In no way, shape, or form though, are they all ready for the majors currently. Or even necessarily soon. Newcomb and Sims will see the majors this year, that's probably it. They've got Dickey, Garcia, and Colon to move out of the rotation. They're not in need of finding guys spots right now.

 

They've got plenty of time to wait on Teheran to regain value and there's still not even a guarantee tbey'll sell him anyway, if he does.

 

At BEST, he's an off season trade target.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1) He may correct his early season issues. 2) The fact that that's possible, is exactly why the Braves won't sell low on him currently.

 

Seriously, you can buy low on the Eddie Butlers of the world or some guys that have had multiple down years in a row.....There's literally no chance the Braves sell him off for pennies on the dollar NOW, when they've got him for 3 more years after this and he can regain value over that point. There's also no reason for a team to give them true value for him currently, because he's looked like complete horsefeathers. Couple that with the fact the Braves LOVE him and wanted a metric ass ton for him two years ago, didn't even listen to offers for him last year.....Sorry, its really just common sense that they're not going to let a bad start to a year, dictate them selling low on him.

 

On top of that, they DO have a ton of arms.....In no way, shape, or form though, are they all ready for the majors currently. Or even necessarily soon. Newcomb and Sims will see the majors this year, that's probably it. They've got Dickey, Garcia, and Colon to move out of the rotation. They're not in need of finding guys spots right now.

 

They've got plenty of time to wait on Teheran to regain value and there's still not even a guarantee tbey'll sell him anyway, if he does.

 

At BEST, he's an off season trade target.

 

If the Braves are more pessimistic about his future they could see it as an opportunity to maximize their value(prices are higher at the deadline too), they've never been huge cheerleaders of Teheran anyway. At AAA and above alone they have Dickey, Garcia, Colon, Folty, Wisler, Newcomb, and Sims so they wouldn't be creating a hole(the idea isn't 'oh man we have to trade someone now to make room').

 

No one's saying that you get Teheran by trading Zagunis and Justin Steele and calling it a day, but relative to other guys who the Cubs might peg to similar future values he could be available(an increasing problem given everyone in the AL is 2 games out of the wild card) and less expensive.

[davell]

Garcia, Dickey, and Colon are all on one year deals. They ARE gone, at the deadline or after the season. They WILL try to move those guys before trying on Teheran.

 

What possibly makes you think they aren't big on Teheran? They've said they wanted him to lead their next contenders staff......Not to mention, he's still there, after having had offers on him previously.....If they weren't fans of his, he'd already be gone.

 

If he gets his horsefeathers together and they can't move the other guys, maybe they'll consider it. But, I seriously doubt it. They think they're close to contending. If they think that, you think they'll want to head into next year with Folty and FOUR question marks in their rotation?

 

And after that, it still comes down to value.....You threw out an obviously silly package, but what IS fair on him? They can get THAT for him, if he pitches like this all year and probably next year too. What IS fair value for him? 3/31 left on his deal after the season.....There's no reason for them to sell unless they're getting something they really like.....If they'd settle for less now, (1 They've got limp dick management or 2) His arms falling off. I doubt the first is true, so if he's available for cheap, its because they're scared of him. They wanted a ton for him before, I'd be shocked if that's changed. And he's been horrible this year. So, I'm curious, what you think gets him? Because I'd be shocked if they moved him without Eloy, or at least Javy or Happ being involved. Ad I'd be pissed if we moved any of those guys for him.

[Tryptamine]

Acquiring Samardzija just keeps looking better and better. The results are finally starting to match the peripherals.

[Tim]

I think you'd have to be really careful if the Braves decide to move him. It would likely mean they feel like something has gone wrong with him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Acquiring Samardzija just keeps looking better and better. The results are finally starting to match the peripherals.

 

I'm more and more okay with it, but I was checking this morning and I'm having a hard time seeing a big motivation for the Giants. They can afford him, they don't want to pack it up and rebuild, and next year their only rotation guys are Bumgarner/Samardzija/Blach, maybe Beede if things go well. Sure they'll be a player in FA and/or trying to bring back Cueto, but if they deal Samardzija they're staring down a 2018 rotation that is Bumgarner and 4 unknowns.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

But he suuuuucks, his "good" years have come with FIPs between 4.2-4.5.

 

I wouldn't mind throwing them a prospect to rent Garcia before or after a bigger trade.

 

I guess that's better than Julio Teheran's 5.70 FIP.

 

Unless there's a compelling reason to think Teheran is hurt, then yes I would jump all over buying low on Teheran's crappy May.

 

I've never really been a fan of Teheran, even when he was pitching well. He's a flyball pitcher that doesn't really strike out very many guys and doesn't throw very hard. And his control has been on-and-off the last few years. I buy him as a FIP beater when things are going well. And I think, at his best, he's a really nice pitcher. But, when he's not getting a ton of weak contact, things haven't gone as well for him.

 

I think he might be a guy with a short shelf life, because of his inability to blow the ball past guys. If he's not striking guys out, and he's not elite at inducing weak contact, then he scares me. That's especially so if he can't keep his walk rate really low.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Acquiring Samardzija just keeps looking better and better. The results are finally starting to match the peripherals.

 

I'm more and more okay with it, but I was checking this morning and I'm having a hard time seeing a big motivation for the Giants. They can afford him, they don't want to pack it up and rebuild, and next year their only rotation guys are Bumgarner/Samardzija/Blach, maybe Beede if things go well. Sure they'll be a player in FA and/or trying to bring back Cueto, but if they deal Samardzija they're staring down a 2018 rotation that is Bumgarner and 4 unknowns.

 

Yeah, Samardzija looks great right now, and I'm more and more a fan of going after him. His contract actually looks rather nice, now that there are fewer years on it, and he's, well, pitching better.

 

But, I do wonder, if everyone else is starting to realize that, then why wouldn't the Giants?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 of 15 AL teams are in playoff position or are within 2 games of playoff position, and one of the two teams that are not are the White Sox who pretty much refuse to trade with the Cubs. What an infuriating outcome.

[soccer10k]

13 of 15 AL teams are in playoff position or are within 2 games of playoff position, and one of the two teams that are not are the White Sox who pretty much refuse to trade with the Cubs. What an infuriating outcome.

 

Meanwhile, none of the 10 NL teams currently out of playoff position are within 2 games of the playoffs. The four teams that are closest to playoff position are all in the Central. The Reds (last place) are 6.5 out while the Marlins (2nd place) are 10.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 of 15 AL teams are in playoff position or are within 2 games of playoff position, and one of the two teams that are not are the White Sox who pretty much refuse to trade with the Cubs. What an infuriating outcome.

 

Meanwhile, none of the 10 NL teams currently out of playoff position are within 2 games of the playoffs. The four teams that are closest to playoff position are all in the Central. The Reds (last place) are 6.5 out while the Marlins (2nd place) are 10.

 

The NL is having a weird year. It's just as stratified as was expected, but a lot of presumed contenders have been outright bad. For all the frustrations of the Cubs season, they're at .500. Some other presumed contenders in the NL:

 

Cardinals: 76 win pace

Mets: 74 win pace

Pirates: 73 win pace.

Giants 61 (!) win pace

[Tim]

My favorite targets from this list (assuming reasonable deals can be had):

 

1. Sonny Gray
   
2. Samardzija
   
3. Cueto
   
4. Jaime Garcia
   
5. Marcell Ozuna
   
6. Lorenzo Cain
   
7. David Phelps / Justin Wilson / Kelvin Herrera
   
8. Raisel Iglesias

 

The rotation is the obvious need here. The list of available guys isn't thrilling, but any of them would represent an improvement for the team. The top two would also help for next year.

 

I'm temporarily smitten with the idea of getting Ozuna or Cain to put in CF. Cain would be the bigger boost for this year once defense is included, but Ozuna would give us a longer term piece.

 

The bullpen is very solid so far. But if any of these guys could be had on a reasonable deal, it would help solidify things even more.

 

I'd love to get Iglesias, but I can't imagine what Cincy would want from us.

 

---------------

 

I think I'd like to make two moves if we could.

 

1) Gray/Shark for Cease, Candelario & Zagunis

2) Ozuna + Phelps for Almora, Happ, Clifton, Albertos

 

That makes the rotation stronger with Lester, Hendricks, Arreita, Gray/Shark, whatever.

 

The lineup fills the only real gap in CF. Yeah, Ozuna hasn't been great there since he filled out, but he and Heyward can switch if it gets too bad. Dude can mash and would give us a real cleanup hitter behind Rizzo.

 

The bullpen doesn't really need the help, but we saw the value of the deep pen in the playoffs last year. Rondon looks like he's toast and Grimm can't be trusted for consistency.

 

I'm basically cleaning out the top levels of the farm here, but I wouldn't want to waste this shot. This is exactly the kind of scenario where you go all-in on the trades at the deadline. All three guys being added will also be here for at least one more year. Losing Cease and Albertos would hurt, but I am hoping they get overvalued vs their probability of staying healthy.