Depth for the Rotation

[toonsterwu]

Any argument that Wisler is a better short term option than someone like Nova is a bad one. Wisler is a guy who topped out in the middle of Top 100 lists, doesn't have really dynamic stuff, and was outright bad in an extended MLB sample. And not fluky bad either, he just got hit around. He showed signs of this happening at upper levels too when he started giving up more hits and K'ing fewer hitters at AAA. The valuation for young pitchers is not linear, pitchers who appear hopeless to their current team get cast aside all the time, and the Braves especially aren't exactly chock full of opportunities for Wisler to straighten himself out. They might not even have a AAA rotation spot for him come midseason.

 

As counterintuitive as it might be to spend a paragraph tearing down Wisler, I do think he's an attractive option *because* he has little trade value. He throws strikes, he has some pedigree, and he's been durable as a pro. Maybe he's Chris Volstad, but that's why you only give up Candelario and don't guarantee Wisler even a long relief role at the MLB level, you give the new instruction a chance to take hold.

 

Let's slice this down as well ...

 

a) Which Ivan Nova? I'm not particularly in love with Matt Wisler, personally ... but let's not forget that Ivan Nova was an awful pitcher in 2015. Now, is there an explanation for that? Perhaps, but production is production, and while he wasn't awful at the start of 2016, he wasn't the pitcher he was with when he joined the Pirates. In fact, he has NEVER shown that level of command and home run prevention prior to the 2nd half of 2016 and joining the Pirates. Did he figure something out? Perhaps.

 

b) I think to say WIsler has little trade value is harsh. Aaron Blair probably has little trade value right now. He was never viewed as highly as Matt Wisler (there were some folks that plopped down number 2 type starter potential for Wisler while he was coming up ... personally, always wondered if he was better off in the pen). Wisler's main pitches aren't bad. A fastball that can peak in the mid-90's, and a slider that probably grades above average. Problem is, IIRC, fastball is a bit flat, and he lacks a third pitch to go to. He's probably their 6th starter right now (I'm guessing Foltyniewicz is the favorite for the 5th job, but Wisler/Blair are likely to both be in the mix). We shouldn't forget that the bulk of the rest of the Braves top arms aren't ready for AAA yet (really don't see that many people that are going to tear through the minors, and even if they are ready to tear through and somehow force Wisler out of a rotation spot at AAA, if Wisler is at AAA ... I doubt the Braves are going to rush everyone that fast).

 

So, let's leave aside Wisler's value himself and what I personally think he is. If you are the Braves, are you rushing to throw away your own depth unless it's for high quality? Here's a, as you note, durable starter who had some pedigree. It's not like his stuff has backed up - fastball velo is there, slider still shows above average, if I'm not mistaken. He's young enough that you hope he can pick up/improve some sort of 2-seamer, changeup, splitter type pitch to help out. Let's go beyond that for a moment - Candelario. Are we going to argue that Candelario is definitively better than most of the 3rd base options in the Braves system to justify this move? I like Candelario better than Rio Ruiz, but not by a ton. Travis Demeritte might be better off at 3rd, and Austin Riley is talented enough that he could push for AA by the end of 2017.

 

____

 

Anyhow, all this belies the fact that I would probably do Wisler for Candelario despite not liking it too much. I'm just wary of putting too much in, and I think the Braves would want more, perhaps even what davell notes, a Zagunis or someone. Even then, color me as not completely convinced the Braves would move Wisler for Happ when most of their prime young arms are far away. I don't buy that this depth/options available arm is going to be the main challenger to Mike Montgomery for the 5th job (I'm going to be surprised if there isn't a bigger move ... doesn't mean someone else couldn't sneak up and win the job), and I'm wary of throwing too many potential trade chips in early, before the season starts.

[Cubswin11]

Is Bud Norris guaranteed to get a major league contract? He's not a young or sexy name, but he's been on 4 teams in the last 2 years and I believe cut by at least 1 (Dodgers last year) but as a depth piece on a split minor league/major league contract he'd be a decent option if we aren't going to trade for anyone.

[Post Count Padder]

I know we were connected to him earlier this offseason but what are the thoughts on Derek Holland?

[Cubswin11]

I know we were connected to him earlier this offseason but what are the thoughts on Derek Holland?

I like/liked him more as a candidate to try and turn a hurt/failed starter into a relief pitcher and still do. I'm guessing someone gives him a chance to start, which I don't really care to do.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even then, color me as not completely convinced the Braves would move Wisler for Happ when most of their prime young arms are far away.

 

This is where we'll have to agree to disagree, because to be honest that line of thinking is crazy to me.

[Tryptamine]

What about McCarthy? You could likely get him for near nothing right now.

[davell]

What about McCarthy? You could likely get him for near nothing right now.

 

Personally, I wouldn't help the Dodgers out of a mistake.

[Cubswin11]

What about McCarthy? You could likely get him for near nothing right now.

If he came for near literal nothing and cost like Corey Black sure. But I wouldn't give anything more considering his salary and injury risk

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not sure why McCarthy would be desirable. He's not very sure to be better than Montgomery, he has injury concerns and a contract of non-trivial size, he can't be optioned, and he's not a good fit for the bullpen if he failed to beat out Montgomery.

[Bear Cub]

With the Brewers rebuilding, I would think that Wily Peralta is someone that could be had.

[CubsWin]

For me, if the Cubs are going to trade a package built around Happ or one built around Candelario, I'd like to get someone with some upside. That's likely going to involve some risk either in the form of someone who's had TJS or someone who is further away from the bigs. I know that doesn't necessarily solve the problem being discussed in this thread, namely depth for the 2017 rotation, but if Zastryzny starts in AAA (which is increasingly likely if the Uehara signing is officially done), I'm not overly worried about AAA depth.

 

If Happ, Zagunis and Underwood can net Newcomb or Allard, great. If Candelario can get Mike Soroka, Touki Toussaint or Max Fried, cool.

 

If the cash strapped Royals are worried about losing Danny Duffy for nothing in free agency like they would've with Wade Davis, will they consider Ian Happ plus for Duffy so long as he agrees to a contract extension before the trade is completed? The Royals currently have Whit Merrifield as their 2B and no one close or any good in their minor leagues that plays 2B. (Of course, it's still debatable whether Happ can play there himself).

 

There plenty of other options other than ones I've named, but I'd rather the Cubs spend their player position resources on a pitcher with upside than solid depth for 2017.

[champaignchris]

I've seen a couple places that the Cubs should try to trade for and then extend Duffy.

 

Why do people think he'd be willing to extend considering he'd likely be the third best starting pitching free agent behind Kershaw and Arrieta and younger than both of them?

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I've seen a couple places that the Cubs should try to trade for and then extend Duffy.

 

Why do people think he'd be willing to extend considering he'd likely be the third best starting pitching free agent behind Kershaw and Arrieta and younger than both of them?

 

Kershaw can't opt out until after 2018. There's also Otani and I believe Cueto, but yeah he's probably better off testing free agency.

[CP_414]

I've seen a couple places that the Cubs should try to trade for and then extend Duffy.

 

Why do people think he'd be willing to extend considering he'd likely be the third best starting pitching free agent behind Kershaw and Arrieta and younger than both of them?

 

He doesn't have a very long track record of success. If he's offered 85-90% of a reasonable free agent type contract that would be hard to turn down. It gives him close to his value and takes away a lot of risk on his end. An extension doesn't have to mean you are giving up a ton of money (Strasburg extended while on the cusp of free agency).

 

A trade/extension like Porecello and the Red Sox did makes sense for a Duffy/Pineda type.

[Cubswin11]

I'm not a huge fan of going after Duffy, yes he's good, but I think you are going to have to pay for an ace to get him (either with players in a trade or money in FA) and you are getting more of a ~2.5 WAR pitcher. Which is fine, just overpriced.

[CubsWin]

Well, he's a pitcher so he's gonna be overpriced. If I'm gonna pay more than someone is worth, I'd rather have a 27-28 year old starting a 5-year contract than a 31-year-old. That's what makes someone like Duffy attractive as an acquisition. As far as why he might sign an extension, every player has a number in mind. I'm not saying the Cubs would meet it, just saying only make they trade if they can work something out.

 

As far as his WAR, he had a 2.8 fWAR last season in just under 180 innings in 26 starts after starting the year in the pen. It was a breakout season for him. He doesn't have a ton of mileage on his arm (mostly due to injuries which is a concern going forward) but if he can provide 200 IP with the similar percentages (25.7% K rate and 5.8% walk rate plus a BAA of .239 and WHIP of 1.14), that'll work.

 

That said, I don't see a need to go add him right now. But looking to 2018 and beyond, I'd rather spend capital on someone with his upside than AAA depth. Of course, the ideal is to get both. A pitcher coming out of AA (or repeating AAA) with upside who can also provide major league depth in 2017.

[Donzo]

With the cost of acquiring good starting pitching, and quality young pitchers under team control, so expensive at the moment, I hope the Cubs can sign Wood and Ross and call it an offseason.

 

The Cubs can keep all their prospects and be in great position to make moves in season.

[Cubswin11]

Maybe he was just never that good but I'd love to get Appel

[Clem Fandango]

Scratch Derek Holland off the list. He signed with the White Sox. One year $6 million.

[Cubswin11]

Scratch Derek Holland off the list. He signed with the White Sox. One year $6 million.

I look forward to scoring 8+ runs off him when we play them and then 10+ runs off Shields the next day.

[CubsWin]

I continue to like the Phillies some as a match for Candelario maybe with Nick Pivetta, Mark Appel, and/or Ben Lively all interesting enough for AAA.

Phillies have Maikel Franco at 3B and Tommy Joseph at 1B (.813 OPS, 25 years old), I don't see them acquiring a young, corner infielder. Those pitchers are pretty uninspiring to me. MLB.com has Candelario rated as a 55 prospect. Both Pivetta and Lively are 45 and I want nothing to do with Appel, at least not as a return for Candelario.

[davell]

Appel was shut down with shoulder issues, then had bone spurs removed from his elbow. Sad story. But unless he's basically free, there's no reason to bother with him.

[craig]

With the cost of acquiring good starting pitching, and quality young pitchers under team control, so expensive at the moment.....

 

Yes, and that moment will almost surely not pass.

 

When Theo came, there was a theory that hitting would become scarce and teams with hitters would have a trade leverage advantage.

 

That theory does not appear to have been fulfilled.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

With the cost of acquiring good starting pitching, and quality young pitchers under team control, so expensive at the moment.....

 

Yes, and that moment will almost surely not pass.

 

When Theo came, there was a theory that hitting would become scarce and teams with hitters would have a trade leverage advantage.

 

That theory does not appear to have been fulfilled.

 

 

It's not that hitting would become scarce, it's that hitters are a more predictable, less volatile asset, which is undeniably true. So while other teams have tried to ransom young pitchers with some pedigree, or build a rotation full of guys with great stuff and injury/control risks, the Cubs have won 200 games the last 2 years and a world series with a rotation that's 40% a pre-arb reject(Arrieta) and a low-ceiling prospect(Hendricks) providing about 19 fWAR over that time.

[KingCubsFan]

With the cost of acquiring good starting pitching, and quality young pitchers under team control, so expensive at the moment.....

 

Yes, and that moment will almost surely not pass.

 

When Theo came, there was a theory that hitting would become scarce and teams with hitters would have a trade leverage advantage.

 

That theory does not appear to have been fulfilled.

I'm not sure about that. The Cubs could trade Schwarber or Baez for a young pitcher, they just prefer not to (which I agree with).