Sale traded to Red Sox for Moncada, Kopech +

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I also dig his upside, but I could see scenarios where he never gets any better with the bat but Still provides than what Archer or Quintana give you. Over the 4-5 years Q and Archer each have, there's a pretty high probablility of erosion in their performance, whether through injury or just Gray style sudden suckage. All that's obvious, but then there's the value attached to the versatility that isn't calculated into WAR at all. To me, that versatility is worth something like a half a win per season.

 

To clarify, I wasn't talking about surplus value necessarily, just that the minimum expectation should be someone who is better in 2017 than 2016 Baez.

[David]

Lastly, to bring it home to the topic of the thread, great get by the sox. This is where Jerry was wrong (or full of horsefeathers): you don't need 4 great prospects to get 1 good player. Just evaluate and get at least one guy you're pretty damn sure on. They snagged the top guy in the minors, which is exactly what they should have done if it was available. Screw quantity. Good work Sox.

 

I believe he meant that out of 4 "can't miss"' type guys, you might get one actual star.

Yeah that's what I figured, but deals with 4 "can't miss" prospects don't exist. if you're using a reasonable probability cutoff for "can't miss" you're talking about top 10, maybe top 5 guys. Or even extend it out to top 25 and you're rarely ever getting 3 of those in a deal.

 

So is he saying only 1 in 4 "can't miss" guys turn into a star so we have to get a bunch more in the deal? If that's the case, then you're not showing much faith in your prospect evaluators. Seems like in this case they got a real "can't miss" guy. I'd say odds of Moncada being a star are well over 25%.

 

To clarify...I don't think he was talking about getting 4 cant miss guys in one deal. He was just trying to make a point of the crapshoot nature of even the best prospects.

[Thrilho]

Yeah I didn't really think he meant literally four top 10 types, but it's seemed from what we hear in the media that their demands have been pretty exorbitant.

 

You have to have four prospects who can’t possibly miss to get one," White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf told CSN. "I’ve seen so many players over the years who were going to be phenoms, they were going to be future Hall of Famers, and we don’t even remember what their names are anymore. That’s why when you’re trading a player of stature you’ve got to get multiple can’t-miss prospects back. That’s why it makes it tough to trade a player of great stature

 

He's saying here they need multiple can't miss guys. To me that would be like giving up Moncada and Benintendi. What they ended up with was a one true top of the line can't miss guy and some other good looking pieces. I don't know everything about everyone, but Kopech is an A ball fireballer who came in at 94 on BA's mid-season list. 33rd pick, so good pedigree. But even if he's #45 like Law had him, or mid-20s by someone that's still an A ball pitcher.

 

They got made sure to target one really good guy and then some other pieces. Like what the Cubs did with the Russell deal, only they had a more valuable piece so they got the consensus most "can't miss" guy where the Cubs guy was a bit down the list. But nobody is giving you multiple can't miss studs for 3 years of a pitcher. So great for the Sox on getting this deal and hopefully they do more where they find at least one stud in each deal.

[Thrilho]

TL;DR good for the Sox getting an elite guy rather than making something like the Washington for quantity

[USSoccer]

I certainly think it's *possible* that Javy takes a step forward and becomes an offensive/defensive 5+ win monster of a player at some point in the next few years...but I also think it's far far more likely than not that 2016 is pretty much his peak season (or a close top 2-3 of his career). He's got some fatal flaws (both his lack of discipline in terms of the strike zone and in terms of how out of control his swing can be even when he's swinging at strikes) and what you saw in 2016 was a result of very selective and advantageous use by Maddon.

 

I love Javy and I would be happy to keep him around and see what happens (we're going to be really good for a long time even if he's just Jose Hernandez), but I wouldn't be heartbroken if we sold high on him either.

 

I feel like the idea that 2016 is potentially Javy's peak is something that is being said a lot. I'm just wondering how a guy who did improve markedly in his first full season of ML play is someone who people feel comfortable saying he's never going to be better that he currently is when he's 23.

 

I get he's not the archetype of guy this front office would generally prefer but it's odd to me that a guy with his skill set is so easily included in a deal for a pitcher and all the uncertainty that position brings.

 

Javy's flexibility and elite defense within said flexibility is something that makes figuring out the rest of the roster and managing said roster so much easier. His bat is such that it can carry a team for a stretch of time a la Soriano. He's currently cheap for his production. He's more valuable to this team and how it's set up that he would be as a piece for Chris Archer.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I feel like the idea that 2016 is potentially Javy's peak is something that is being said a lot. I'm just wondering how a guy who did improve markedly in his first full season of ML play is someone who people feel comfortable saying he's never going to be better that he currently is when he's 23.

 

I don't think that's unfair, but I also don't think it's unfair to point out that Baez's 2016 output is also due to factors beyond himself. He saw more LHP than an everyday player would, and was shielded from specific RHP unless he was in good form. His defensive flexibility is awesome, but if the corner OF is more settled next year then there's less use for that flexibility(not no use, but less).

 

Ultimately people are saying it's probably at least as likely that Baez is exposed with more playing time that he takes an additional step. Given the current and immediate future of the rotation, surely you can get why people would be willing to forego his flexibility and upside to make that part of the team so much better, right?

[USSoccer]

I feel like the idea that 2016 is potentially Javy's peak is something that is being said a lot. I'm just wondering how a guy who did improve markedly in his first full season of ML play is someone who people feel comfortable saying he's never going to be better that he currently is when he's 23.

 

I don't think that's unfair, but I also don't think it's unfair to point out that Baez's 2016 output is also due to factors beyond himself. He saw more LHP than an everyday player would, and was shielded from specific RHP unless he was in good form. His defensive flexibility is awesome, but if the corner OF is more settled next year then there's less use for that flexibility(not no use, but less).

 

Ultimately people are saying it's probably at least as likely that Baez is exposed with more playing time that he takes an additional step. Given the current and immediate future of the rotation, surely you can get while people would be willing to forego his flexibility and upside to make that part of the team so much better, right?

 

If you look at the corner OF situation another way, having Javy around helped greatly mitigate Schwarber missing 160 games and Heyward being awful. If you deal Javy, and it turns out that Schwarber is killing you defensively or someone gets hurt, our ability to weather that is reduced.

 

I understand that the rotation questions now and next year necessitate making some sort of move, but I think there are other ways to go about fixing it.

 

Just to go a step further, Schwarber is probably going to end up a DH at some point in the medium-future. He's going to be a below average LF. We wouldn't deal him for a pitcher and rightly so-despite a very real limitation to his game, he's really valuable to our team right now because his bat is elite. Our ML guys with demonstrated elite skills shouldn't be used in deals unless we don't have another option, and I think we have options.

 

Is it not unreasonable to think you could trade for Archer in May when Tampa is 20 games back and Eloy and Happ maybe have strong starts in the minors? Is the 2017 FA class for pitchers that bad where we can't just throw money at the problem? Atlanta isn't close to contention; might they settle for guys in the system+Soler for Teheran?

 

I'd prefer routes like that.

[Tim]

If we trade Javy, are people prepared to live with the 150+ AB given to someone like Kawasaki as backup shortstop?

[Tryptamine]

If we trade Javy, are people prepared to live with the 150+ AB given to someone like Kawasaki as backup shortstop?

 

This is my biggest fear about trading Baez. If anything happens to Russell the line up is in big trouble.

[Cubswin11]

If we trade Javy, are people prepared to live with the 150+ AB given to someone like Kawasaki as backup shortstop?

How do you get to 35-40 starts out of Kawasaki? LaStella would pick up ABs, Zobrist would be at 2B a lot more, Schwarber hopefully takes more than the 125 games and ~550 ABs Fowler leaves open, Jay/Almora r getting a full season, etc? And for PH 2 of Soler, Schwarber, Jay, Almora or Heyward have to be on the bench to start a game, 1 of Bryant, Zobrist or LaStella do as well and most likely 1 of Montero/Contreras (assuming no Willy in the OF).

Edited December 7, 2016 by Cubswin11

[davell]

If we trade Javy, are people prepared to live with the 150+ AB given to someone like Kawasaki as backup shortstop?

How do you get to 35-40 starts out of Kawasaki? LaStella would pick up ABs, Zobrist would be at 2B a lot more, Schwarber hopefully takes more than the 125 games and ~550 ABs Fowler leaves open, Jay/Almora r getting a full season, etc? And for PH 2 of Soler, Schwarber, Jay, Almora or Heyward have to be on the bench to start a game, 1 of Bryant, Zobrist or LaStella do as well and most likely 1 of Montero/Contreras (assuming no Willy in the OF).

 

Having Javy as insurance if Addy gets hurt is what he's talking about. A 15-20 game stretch without Addy, puts the 35-40 starts Tim is proposing, as a reality. Having THIS type of quality depth is something no one else has. Its valuable.

[Cubswin11]

If we trade Javy, are people prepared to live with the 150+ AB given to someone like Kawasaki as backup shortstop?

How do you get to 35-40 starts out of Kawasaki? LaStella would pick up ABs, Zobrist would be at 2B a lot more, Schwarber hopefully takes more than the 125 games and ~550 ABs Fowler leaves open, Jay/Almora r getting a full season, etc? And for PH 2 of Soler, Schwarber, Jay, Almora or Heyward have to be on the bench to start a game, 1 of Bryant, Zobrist or LaStella do as well and most likely 1 of Montero/Contreras (assuming no Willy in the OF).

 

Having Javy as insurance if Addy gets hurt is what he's talking about. A 15-20 game stretch without Addy, puts the 35-40 starts Tim is proposing, as a reality. Having THIS type of quality depth is something no one else has. Its valuable.

Got it. Well this scenario of not having Javy isn't that big of a deal to me over whoever the back up SS would be because Javy would be mostly a glove only backup, IMO, if he has to expand to a starting role for a ~month with not having the luxury of being protected vs RHP and facing favorable pitching matchups.

[davell]

To me, the improvements he's already made offensively makes it much, much more likely that he'll keep improving. His upside is still very far from his current product, which is still a 3 win guy up the middle. Personally, I'm not concerned if they DO deal him, only because I feel like we'd need to be overwhelmed by the offer. Otherwise, I suspect he's a fulltime 4 win guy for us in 2017.

[sneakypower]

If we trade Javy, are people prepared to live with the 150+ AB given to someone like Kawasaki as backup shortstop?

Stephen Drew

[Cubswin11]

To me, the improvements he's already made offensively makes it much, much more likely that he'll keep improving. His upside is still very far from his current product, which is still a 3 win guy up the middle. Personally, I'm not concerned if they DO deal him, only because I feel like we'd need to be overwhelmed by the offer. Otherwise, I suspect he's a fulltime 4 win guy for us in 2017.

He still was a horsefeathers player vs RHP this year. He's a great weapon to have as a backup to pick and choose his offensive matchups vs LHP and late inning defense but I'm not seeing anything he's done, or shown improvement on vs RHP, to really warrant giving him a larger role in 2017 unless forced to do so. And like I said above in the scenario you start taking away his RHP protection you are looking at a glove only guy in the lineup most days.

[USSoccer]

How do you get to 35-40 starts out of Kawasaki? LaStella would pick up ABs, Zobrist would be at 2B a lot more, Schwarber hopefully takes more than the 125 games and ~550 ABs Fowler leaves open, Jay/Almora r getting a full season, etc? And for PH 2 of Soler, Schwarber, Jay, Almora or Heyward have to be on the bench to start a game, 1 of Bryant, Zobrist or LaStella do as well and most likely 1 of Montero/Contreras (assuming no Willy in the OF).

 

Having Javy as insurance if Addy gets hurt is what he's talking about. A 15-20 game stretch without Addy, puts the 35-40 starts Tim is proposing, as a reality. Having THIS type of quality depth is something no one else has. Its valuable.

Got it. Well this scenario of not having Javy isn't that big of a deal to me over whoever the back up SS would be because Javy would be mostly a glove only backup, IMO, if he has to expand to a starting role for a ~month with not having the luxury of being protected vs RHP and facing favorable pitching matchups.

 

You mean a month like October where he played like a cheat code for three weeks?

[Gmoney08]

To me, the improvements he's already made offensively makes it much, much more likely that he'll keep improving. His upside is still very far from his current product, which is still a 3 win guy up the middle. Personally, I'm not concerned if they DO deal him, only because I feel like we'd need to be overwhelmed by the offer. Otherwise, I suspect he's a fulltime 4 win guy for us in 2017.

 

What improved besides cutting some swing and miss? That came with less power and fewer walks.

 

Wasn't his power still pretty damn good for a MIF considering how many AB's he got?

 

Im pretty pumped with the improvements Javy has made and he has freakish natural talent so I think there definitely is untapped ceiling for him.

 

His results are better and his AB's are just looking a lot better, he put in great At Bats against very good pitchers with nasty stuff this post season as well. Cueto, Bumgarner, Kershaw, Kluber, and Andrew Miller.

 

I have zero interest in trading a guy with his glove, his age, his contract, his current bat, his base running skills and then taking into account his potential bat.

[sneakypower]

 

Having Javy as insurance if Addy gets hurt is what he's talking about. A 15-20 game stretch without Addy, puts the 35-40 starts Tim is proposing, as a reality. Having THIS type of quality depth is something no one else has. Its valuable.

Got it. Well this scenario of not having Javy isn't that big of a deal to me over whoever the back up SS would be because Javy would be mostly a glove only backup, IMO, if he has to expand to a starting role for a ~month with not having the luxury of being protected vs RHP and facing favorable pitching matchups.

 

You mean a month like October where he played like a cheat code for three weeks?

(world series not included)

[Cubswin11]

 

Having Javy as insurance if Addy gets hurt is what he's talking about. A 15-20 game stretch without Addy, puts the 35-40 starts Tim is proposing, as a reality. Having THIS type of quality depth is something no one else has. Its valuable.

Got it. Well this scenario of not having Javy isn't that big of a deal to me over whoever the back up SS would be because Javy would be mostly a glove only backup, IMO, if he has to expand to a starting role for a ~month with not having the luxury of being protected vs RHP and facing favorable pitching matchups.

 

You mean a month like October where he played like a cheat code for three weeks?

Javy absolutely helped us get to and win a WS, I will never argue against that. There's still red flags all over him that he shouldn't be more than a platoon player/defensive sub. Also vs RHP in the playoffs.... .265/.280/.469 (.749) with 17 Ks and 1 BB in 49 ABs.

[USSoccer]

Got it. Well this scenario of not having Javy isn't that big of a deal to me over whoever the back up SS would be because Javy would be mostly a glove only backup, IMO, if he has to expand to a starting role for a ~month with not having the luxury of being protected vs RHP and facing favorable pitching matchups.

 

You mean a month like October where he played like a cheat code for three weeks?

Javy absolutely helped us get to and win a WS, I will never argue against that. There's still red flags all over him that he shouldn't be more than a platoon player/defensive sub. Also vs RHP in the playoffs.... .265/.280/.469 (.749) with 17 Ks and 1 BB in 49 ABs.

 

Those numbers aren't godawful (well, the Ks are) when you consider they came against generally high level RHP and his overall numbers look good despite his pressing for most of the WS.

 

If I'm not mistaken that was also the longest run of games he had in a row all year. Even with his WS dip he showed well. Who's to say he can't build on that when he gets to consistently face RHP not named Jansen or Kluber?

[davell]

To me, the improvements he's already made offensively makes it much, much more likely that he'll keep improving. His upside is still very far from his current product, which is still a 3 win guy up the middle. Personally, I'm not concerned if they DO deal him, only because I feel like we'd need to be overwhelmed by the offer. Otherwise, I suspect he's a fulltime 4 win guy for us in 2017.

He still was a horsefeathers player vs RHP this year. He's a great weapon to have as a backup to pick and choose his offensive matchups vs LHP and late inning defense but I'm not seeing anything he's done, or shown improvement on vs RHP, to really warrant giving him a larger role in 2017 unless forced to do so. And like I said above in the scenario you start taking away his RHP protection you are looking at a glove only guy in the lineup most days.

 

A .689 OPS isn't great obviously. But its certainly fine considering the rest of our offense. His D is valuable enough to play him fulltime, in his current state. But again, he'll be 24 all next season.....The talent is there for so much more, he's going to improve against righties, the more he sees of them at this level.

 

What he's done, to date, in his ML career, is basically how some of the scouting reports called it. Raw, would take a while to become a finished product. The tools are there, his D is better than advertised, and is worth enough for us to be able to wait on the offense, considering the upside he has, if he comes even close to tapping into it. He's worth waiting on and we're in a perfect position to do it.

[Gmoney08]

Got it. Well this scenario of not having Javy isn't that big of a deal to me over whoever the back up SS would be because Javy would be mostly a glove only backup, IMO, if he has to expand to a starting role for a ~month with not having the luxury of being protected vs RHP and facing favorable pitching matchups.

 

You mean a month like October where he played like a cheat code for three weeks?

Javy absolutely helped us get to and win a WS, I will never argue against that. There's still red flags all over him that he shouldn't be more than a platoon player/defensive sub. Also vs RHP in the playoffs.... .265/.280/.469 (.749) with 17 Ks and 1 BB in 49 ABs.

 

Even if he never ever improves against RH's (which I feel isnt likely) he is still basically Andrelton Simmons bat and close to his value in the field (potentially more with his role in moving all over the damn field smoothly).

[Cubswin11]

 

You mean a month like October where he played like a cheat code for three weeks?

Javy absolutely helped us get to and win a WS, I will never argue against that. There's still red flags all over him that he shouldn't be more than a platoon player/defensive sub. Also vs RHP in the playoffs.... .265/.280/.469 (.749) with 17 Ks and 1 BB in 49 ABs.

 

Those numbers aren't godawful (well, the Ks are) when you consider they came against generally high level RHP and his overall numbers look good despite his pressing for most of the WS.

 

If I'm not mistaken that was also the longest run of games he had in a row all year. Even with his WS dip he showed well. Who's to say he can't build on that when he gets to consistently face RHP not named Jansen or Kluber?

That slash line he put up is a crazy aberration and would absolutely not be sustainable over the long haul. SSS but those 49 playoff abs vs RHP translate to him having a .367 BABIP with a ~35% K rate and ~2% BB rate. Those numbers combined together are going to lead to failure. No player who qualified last year put up a K rate that high in the regular season, only 6 players that qualified put up a higher BABIP (all of whom had a 10-20+ K% lower than 35%) and no player had a BB% lower than 3%. The 35% K rate, 2% BB rate and ~.370 BABIP player can't sustainably exist as a successful offensive baseball player over a full season.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Cubswin11

[davell]

The playoffs were just a sample size too. The K rate was managed well during the season and his work ethic should help in all aspects going forward. He sacrificed some power, for contact, but he's a mid 20's HR guy with a full seasons worth of AB's.....The walk rate almost has to go up. Its obviously bad, but I'd bet on it moving up 2-3% anyway going forward.

 

He's just a very divisive player. Almost all of us are dug in one way or the other. I just expect continued improvement. All Star by 2018, maybe even this year.

[Thrilho]

Those playoff numbers against righties looked better before the WS though. He fell apart there, but Kluber was carving up everyone. Either way, I think lost in the concern over his performance against righties is how good he was against lefties. He was .311/.375/.475 with a 124 wRC+ and .359 wOBA.

 

And he's on a roster that has Schwarber, who had a .481 OPS and 31 wRC+ against lefties in 2015 and Heyward, whose has wRC+ of 82 for his career against lefties and had a 62 last year. If Schwarber isn't at a least league average hitter against lefties Javy is a better option (irrespective of development considerations), and I'd say Javy is a proven better option than Heyward all the time against lefties.

 

Then Jon Jay, who doesn't have much of a platoon problem, but he's not 124 wRC+ good against them. So even if Javy doesn't carve out more time against righties, I'd say Javy has a lot of value to the team. But thennnnn if maybe he does improve against righties...

Edited December 7, 2016 by Thrilho