Sale traded to Red Sox for Moncada, Kopech +

[davell]

Considering how that was a one time fee, plus a paid in full penalty, how is that actual news?

[David]

Considering how that was a one time fee, plus a paid in full penalty, how is that actual news?

 

Is that how the contract works? Lump sum?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Considering how that was a one time fee, plus a paid in full penalty, how is that actual news?

 

Is that how the contract works? Lump sum?

 

It was a signing bonus of ~$31 million plus ~$31 million penalty, all paid when Moncada signed. You no longer can make Cespedes or Soler-like signings for international prospects who fall under the international signing restrictions.

[David]

Considering how that was a one time fee, plus a paid in full penalty, how is that actual news?

 

Is that how the contract works? Lump sum?

 

It was a signing bonus of ~$31 million plus ~$31 million penalty, all paid when Moncada signed. You no longer can make Cespedes or Soler-like signings for international prospects who fall under the international signing restrictions.

 

Duh...I actually knew that.

[davell]

Considering how that was a one time fee, plus a paid in full penalty, how is that actual news?

 

Is that how the contract works? Lump sum?

 

Its a signing bonus. I GUESS they could stretch it out. But he's a typical player that just started service time. He wasn't even on the 40 man at the time of signing. At any rate, its no surprise the WS aren't paying that money. I wouldn't either, if I were them.

[David]

So someone tweeted a Kopech instagram link t hat I clicked, and first thing I saw was this comment

 

nov1972This is your time. You and jason Groome. Two studs. The Sox are building a machine in all of MLB. Not even the Cubs have two top end pitchers. The Sox are young and stacked .

 

lmaooo

[Bull]

Screw trading Javy for Quintana. That's what the system is for.

 

The system is not very good at the moment. I'm more than fine with keeping Javy and getting a different pitcher, but if you want someone of Quintana's caliber there's very likely only one way to get there, and that's by trading Baez.

 

And now is the time to trade him. Jay's value has never been higher, thanks to the attention he received during the playoffs. I also doubt it goes up from here.

[USSoccer]

Screw trading Javy for Quintana. That's what the system is for.

 

The system is not very good at the moment. I'm more than fine with keeping Javy and getting a different pitcher, but if you want someone of Quintana's caliber there's very likely only one way to get there, and that's by trading Baez.

 

And now is the time to trade him. Jay's value has never been higher, thanks to the attention he received during the playoffs. I also doubt it goes up from here.

 

Defenders like Javy don't grow on trees. Defenders like Javy who hit LHP the way he does and who still have the kind of ceiling he does are even rarer.

 

Hard pass on dealing Javy.

[davell]

Its not a matter of even dealing Javy. Its what ELSE, to go with him.....Surely Schwarber or Eloy. That'd it'd take for the White Sox to trade a guy like THAT, to us. As has been said, ad nauseum, it'd cost us more.

 

Just not worth it. If you can get Robertson for a song, a dance, and a Jeimer.....Fine. But we're just wasting time thinking about them trading elite guys to us. Hahn and Jed have both basically said so too.

[sneakypower]

what if i told you

 

this is Javy's ceiling

[Tim]

what if i told you

 

this is Javy's ceiling

I would tell you that this is merely your latest wrong opinion about him. :)

[Cubswin11]

what if i told you

 

this is Javy's ceiling

I probably would roughly agree. But I'm one of the guys on the board who is the most bearish on Javy long-term and don't really like him. I think there's major warts. I'd really like to move him this offseason and sell high. He has value but it's as a defensive wizard who will probably handle LHP at an above average rate but not great and still have ugly peripherals/plate discipline against them and can't/shouldn't face much RHP.

Edited December 6, 2016 by Cubswin11

[sneakypower]

i'm of course skeptical he'll just carry through +15 fielding / .340 babip / 24% K going forward

 

people probably don't fully appreciate his platoon limitations either

[Elrhino]

Sale is going to be awesome local Boston media and sportstalk radio fodder. Looks like they're already taking a calm and measured approach to the trade.

 

http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2016/12/06/red-sox-chris-sale-trade/

Edited December 6, 2016 by Elrhino

[Sammy Sofa]

what if i told you

 

this is Javy's ceiling

 

Worst 30 for 30 ever.

[Clem Fandango]

As a fantasy owner of both Chris Sale and Yoan Moncada, I am quite pleased.

 

Does Moncada slide back over to 2B instead of 3B where the Red Sox planned to use him?

[USSoccer]

what if i told you

 

this is Javy's ceiling

 

I would say that you're probably wrong, given he was always the one guy of the "core" that would take longer to reach his ceiling and I'm going to guess that his age 23 season with his most PA yet in MLB isn't going to be indicative of the final product.

 

The guy is a difference making talent. You can make an argument that we don't get to the WS without him. I'm of the opinion that you want as many of those kind of talents available as possible.

 

He's improved every year; there's nothing to say he can't take another step forward and be even more valuable in 2017.

[Thrilho]

what if i told you

 

this is Javy's ceiling

 

I would say that you're probably wrong, given he was always the one guy of the "core" that would take longer to reach his ceiling and I'm going to guess that his age 23 season with his most PA yet in MLB isn't going to be indicative of the final product.

 

The guy is a difference making talent. You can make an argument that we don't get to the WS without him. I'm of the opinion that you want as many of those kind of talents available as possible.

 

He's improved every year; there's nothing to say he can't take another step forward and be even more valuable in 2017.

It's nice that we still have at least one divisive issue left, in Javy. Imagine if they did trade him for a pitcher, alleviating the wretched gridlock of 3ish+ win position players trying to garner ABs around here. It'd be a ghost town.

 

As usual, put me down for me "screw pitchers, keep Javy. He's the Swiss army knife that stirs this drink." Luckily for me, I'm sure Theo doesn't want Joe Maddon leaving a flaming bag of doghorsefeathers on front step, so my guess is it'll be another offseason of Theo not trading Javy for a pitcher.

[Thrilho]

I like Quintana a lot though. Probably would trade for him ahead of Archer (without pouring over the numbers and with the understanding that Archer has an extra year of control). I think Quintana is in the neighborhood of a top 10 pitcher.

 

And I did see TTs value breakdown of Quintana vs Schwarbs/Javy so I know neither one is projected to be worth Quintana by himself. But injuries and my preference for having Javy/Schwarber's upside in a position player trumps my need for filling out that rotation spot with another cost controlled stud. Just let Eloy become good enough to be a centerpiece of that kind of deal.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think the important distinction is who you trade Javy for. You don't trade him for anyone that isn't giving you more value than the current version of Javy. So you probably don't trade him for Odorizzi, definitely not for Duffy or Bauer or Smyly. But if you're making a run at Archer, at Quintana, trading Baez is more acceptable since you're making the team better while you trade one problem for another. I'm perfectly fine with either path, and in many ways I prefer the front office to earn its money by getting guys who then become better in the organization(which shouldn't necessitate Javy), but I don't think highly enough of Baez's future to consider trading him for a top end arm a non-starter.

[Thrilho]

Lastly, to bring it home to the topic of the thread, great get by the sox. This is where Jerry was wrong (or full of horsefeathers): you don't need 4 great prospects to get 1 good player. Just evaluate and get at least one guy you're pretty damn sure on. They snagged the top guy in the minors, which is exactly what they should have done if it was available. Screw quantity. Good work Sox.

[David]

I certainly think it's *possible* that Javy takes a step forward and becomes an offensive/defensive 5+ win monster of a player at some point in the next few years...but I also think it's far far more likely than not that 2016 is pretty much his peak season (or a close top 2-3 of his career). He's got some fatal flaws (both his lack of discipline in terms of the strike zone and in terms of how out of control his swing can be even when he's swinging at strikes) and what you saw in 2016 was a result of very selective and advantageous use by Maddon.

 

I love Javy and I would be happy to keep him around and see what happens (we're going to be really good for a long time even if he's just Jose Hernandez), but I wouldn't be heartbroken if we sold high on him either.

[David]

Lastly, to bring it home to the topic of the thread, great get by the sox. This is where Jerry was wrong (or full of horsefeathers): you don't need 4 great prospects to get 1 good player. Just evaluate and get at least one guy you're pretty damn sure on. They snagged the top guy in the minors, which is exactly what they should have done if it was available. Screw quantity. Good work Sox.

 

I believe he meant that out of 4 "can't miss"' type guys, you might get one actual star.

[Thrilho]

I think the important distinction is who you trade Javy for. You don't trade him for anyone that isn't giving you more value than the current version of Javy. So you probably don't trade him for Odorizzi, definitely not for Duffy or Bauer or Smyly. But if you're making a run at Archer, at Quintana, trading Baez is more acceptable since you're making the team better while you trade one problem for another. I'm perfectly fine with either path, and in many ways I prefer the front office to earn its money by getting guys who then become better in the organization(which shouldn't necessitate Javy), but I don't think highly enough of Baez's future to consider trading him for a top end arm a non-starter.

Yeah I don't think trading Javy for a Quintana or Archer would be a wrong move; it's just not how I'd prefer to build the team. Part is my fanboy side who enjoys watching his brand of baseball. But mostly, like you said, we've seen this FO hit amazingly well when they get creative on pitching. Then, the Lester deal is looking pretty good right now.

 

So I'd rather just keep the powder dry, and keep a guy who played a big role in winning the World Series and who allows flexibility and coverage in everything you do on the position player side.

 

I also dig his upside, but I could see scenarios where he never gets any better with the bat but Still provides than what Archer or Quintana give you. Over the 4-5 years Q and Archer each have, there's a pretty high probablility of erosion in their performance, whether through injury or just Gray style sudden suckage. All that's obvious, but then there's the value attached to the versatility that isn't calculated into WAR at all. To me, that versatility is worth something like a half a win per season.

 

So I could see a trade trade with Javy for one of those guys being the right baseball move, but I'd just rather be risk averse in trading my top MLB position players and try to address pitching with money (Otani) and other creative options.

 

 

Edit: the half a win for versatility thing isn't purely a "per inning played" thing. His presence allows the FO a lot of extra flexibility in building the team, not having junk players take ABs, guards against injury, facilitates being able to play match ups at like 4 other positions, etc

Edited December 6, 2016 by Thrilho

[Thrilho]

Lastly, to bring it home to the topic of the thread, great get by the sox. This is where Jerry was wrong (or full of horsefeathers): you don't need 4 great prospects to get 1 good player. Just evaluate and get at least one guy you're pretty damn sure on. They snagged the top guy in the minors, which is exactly what they should have done if it was available. Screw quantity. Good work Sox.

 

I believe he meant that out of 4 "can't miss"' type guys, you might get one actual star.

Yeah that's what I figured, but deals with 4 "can't miss" prospects don't exist. if you're using a reasonable probability cutoff for "can't miss" you're talking about top 10, maybe top 5 guys. Or even extend it out to top 25 and you're rarely ever getting 3 of those in a deal.

 

So is he saying only 1 in 4 "can't miss" guys turn into a star so we have to get a bunch more in the deal? If that's the case, then you're not showing much faith in your prospect evaluators. Seems like in this case they got a real "can't miss" guy. I'd say odds of Moncada being a star are well over 25%.