The Bryce is Right, Bitch

[jersey cubs fan]

if you think playing a lot of baseball games on consecutive days is part of the reason why the offense wasn't good, then I'm not sure how that bodes well for improvement in the next season.

[Brian]

Another thing to consider about the 2019 offense is... we have no clue who will be on the team. The freaking winter meetings haven't even started yet.

[jersey cubs fan]

Another thing to consider about the 2019 offense is... we have no clue who will be on the team. The freaking winter meetings haven't even started yet.

 

Ummmmm..., that's kind of the point of concern, that a lack of money for free agents and no prospects to trade for other talent.

[imb]

horsefeathering autocorrect.

 

Anyways, this is a dumb hypothetical but it would be interesting to me to see the sentiment surrounding the team currently if the season was flipped. What if the bad 2 months of offense happened to start the year through May then from June to the finish we were the great offense but we still ended up with the same results of 95 wins and a WC loss. Like would be in love with where this team was going because of the hot finish? Because the offense was really, really good for a longer stretch than it was bad last year. The bad offense is more recent though and sticks in our minds. I still think we are closer to the really good up to August offense than whatever the hell the last 2 months were moving forward in to this year.

 

Idk, just an interesting way to look at it to try and find a more favorable view of things.

 

it's a useless hypothetical

 

yeah sure, if the offense was bad and people were injured in april and may and then everyone was healthy and the offense was good at the end of the year we'd all be feeling a little bit better.

 

the context matters - it wasn't like the offense fell apart and there was no explanation for it.

If the context is just Chili and the death march killing the offense from August on it makes you feel a lot better about where we are at.

 

you sound really desperate

[Cubswin11]

if you think playing a lot of baseball games on consecutive days is part of the reason why the offense wasn't good, then I'm not sure how that bodes well for improvement in the next season.

Well it was literally an amount of consecutive days that a team rarely ever has to go through. Also

 

[Bluescale]

Like would be in love with where this team was going because of the hot finish? Because the offense was really, really good for a longer stretch than it was bad last year. The bad offense is more recent though and sticks in our minds. I still think we are closer to the really good up to August offense than whatever the hell the last 2 months were moving forward in to this year.

 

This hypothetical doesn't account for the fact that even when the offense was good, there was extreme variability from game to game. Average runs per game are misleading when the standard deviation is massive. I haven't bothered to run the numbers, but the variability has got to be far bigger than normal. The sheer volume of runs the team scored on the days the the offense was on, masks overall problems with the offense when looking backward.

Edited December 7, 2018 by Bluescale

[jersey cubs fan]

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[Sammy Sofa]

 

There's a horsefeathering Truther for EVERYTHING now:

 

[tweet]https://twitter.com/HelloFriends72/status/1071117090365554689[/tweet]

[Cubswin11]

Like would be in love with where this team was going because of the hot finish? Because the offense was really, really good for a longer stretch than it was bad last year. The bad offense is more recent though and sticks in our minds. I still think we are closer to the really good up to August offense than whatever the hell the last 2 months were moving forward in to this year.

 

 

This hypothetical doesn't account for the fact that even when the offense was good, there was extreme variability from game to game. Average runs per game are misleading when the standard deviation is massive. I haven't bothered to run the numbers, but the variability has got to be far bigger than normal. The sheer volume of runs the team scored on the days the the offense was on, masks overall problems with the offense when looking backward.

I’d really like to see these numbers actually since it’s been a topic we often discuss and find out if the offense is really all that volatile and varies that much compared to other teams. I feel like on surface every teams fans thinks their offense isn’t “consistent” enough. The numbers would be very interesting to see if that’s actually the case if someone wants to take the time to run them, because I’m not aware of a site or stat that tracks it.

 

My gut feeling is we don’t vary all that differently from other teams and most teams don’t just score 3-4 runs a game all that much more consistently than us (if we’re assuming around there is the magical being consistent number) most teams probably cluster around 2 or less and 5 or more.

[Sammy Sofa]

All I know is my going to games record over the last 3 seasons is 2-10, and those 2 wins were shitty, stressful ones, so that tiny sample size is definitely HUGELY influencing how down I am on this team.

 

Despite the fact they won a WS in that time.

 

I am fancy and I need to be courted and wooed.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

All I know is my going to games record over the last 3 seasons is 2-10, and those 2 wins were horsefeathers, stressful ones, so that tiny sample size is definitely HUGELY influencing how down I am on this team.

 

Despite the fact they won a WS in that time.

 

I am fancy and I need to be courted and wooed.

 

Baseball teams are literally impossible to project and this is all a big Rorschach thing revealing our inner character

[bcl412]

Cubs are the only stupid team I can rely on in my sports fandom here and you jerks are ruining it

[Sammy Sofa]

All I know is my going to games record over the last 3 seasons is 2-10, and those 2 wins were horsefeathers, stressful ones, so that tiny sample size is definitely HUGELY influencing how down I am on this team.

 

Despite the fact they won a WS in that time.

 

I am fancy and I need to be courted and wooed.

 

Baseball teams are literally impossible to project and this is all a big Rorschach thing revealing our inner character

 

I swear, if even one of those had been a ridiculous laugher of a win for the Cubs, I'd probably feel completely different.

 

I have no backbone whatsoever.

[Clem Fandango]

When I see three new Bryce Harper thread pages I expect one of two things to be happening:

 

1) Bryce Harper news

2) Pizza talk

 

There's not nearly enough of either of these things and I'm very disappointed in all of you.

Edited December 7, 2018 by The Logan

[Cubswin11]

[tweet]

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[Splendid Splinter]

Like would be in love with where this team was going because of the hot finish? Because the offense was really, really good for a longer stretch than it was bad last year. The bad offense is more recent though and sticks in our minds. I still think we are closer to the really good up to August offense than whatever the hell the last 2 months were moving forward in to this year.

 

 

This hypothetical doesn't account for the fact that even when the offense was good, there was extreme variability from game to game. Average runs per game are misleading when the standard deviation is massive. I haven't bothered to run the numbers, but the variability has got to be far bigger than normal. The sheer volume of runs the team scored on the days the the offense was on, masks overall problems with the offense when looking backward.

I’d really like to see these numbers actually since it’s been a topic we often discuss and find out if the offense is really all that volatile and varies that much compared to other teams. I feel like on surface every teams fans thinks their offense isn’t “consistent” enough. The numbers would be very interesting to see if that’s actually the case if someone wants to take the time to run them, because I’m not aware of a site or stat that tracks it.

 

My gut feeling is we don’t vary all that differently from other teams and most teams don’t just score 3-4 runs a game all that much more consistently than us (if we’re assuming around there is the magical being consistent number) most teams probably cluster around 2 or less and 5 or more.

 

This was my post on July 7th.

 

Red Sox leads MLB in runs per game with 5.25. From June 7th to 16th (10 games), they scored 29 runs. Astros from April 6th to 16th scored 27 with an 8 and 5 run game in that stretch. Indians scored 29 from April 1st to 11th. Yankees had a 32 run stretch from June 6th to 17th.

 

Cubs do have a 24, 27, and 29 runs 10 game stretch already. So yes, it is a little Jeckyl and Hyde compared to the 4 teams above. Despite all that, Cubs are 1st in NL and tied for 4th in MLB in runs per game. They're like 15 games over .500. Could they be better by being more consistent at scoring runs? Sure, but it's baseball. Stretches like this IS going to happen

 

Those 4 teams 10 game stretch was their lowest up to that point. So Cubs had 3 stretches worse than the Yankees and that's just up to July 7th. That's also comparing to the elite teams and not against an average team.

[Sammy Sofa]

Truly, the 2018 Cubs offense was the Joe Flacco of baseball.

[David]

wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

 

yep i'm going with that :-"

[imb]

wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

 

yep i'm going with that :-"

 

if you wanna do wishful thinking, just pretend that we have the budget for harper and he wants to be here, but we're trying to move other pieces so we can sign both he and machado. harper wants to be here strongly enough that he's delaying his signing and the terms of his contract until we're further along with machado.

[David]

wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

 

yep i'm going with that :-"

 

if you wanna do wishful thinking, just pretend that we have the budget for harper and he wants to be here, but we're trying to move other pieces so we can sign both he and machado. harper wants to be here strongly enough that he's delaying his signing and the terms of his contract until we're further along with machado.

 

yep ill take that too

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Truly, the 2018 Cubs offense was the Joe Flacco of baseball.

...so, elite?

[Backtobanks]

wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

 

yep i'm going with that :-"

 

if you wanna do wishful thinking, just pretend that we have the budget for harper and he wants to be here, but we're trying to move other pieces so we can sign both he and machado. harper wants to be here strongly enough that he's delaying his signing and the terms of his contract until we're further along with machado.

 

As long as we're doing wishful thinking, don't forget the trade of Chatwood, Duensing, Russell, Kintzler and Heyward for Trout so that we can clear some contracts.

[Bertz]

wishful thinking - harper wants to come to the cubs really really badly and the cubs know it and the budget talk is a ploy to drive down his contract a bit

 

yep i'm going with that :-"

 

if you wanna do wishful thinking, just pretend that we have the budget for harper and he wants to be here, but we're trying to move other pieces so we can sign both he and machado. harper wants to be here strongly enough that he's delaying his signing and the terms of his contract until we're further along with machado.

 

If you replace Machado with Andrew Miller or Zach Britton, I think that's the optimistic but reasonable interpretation of what's going on right now. Like, we have enough money for Bryce, but because of Hamels there's no room for anything else. We desperately need to add another high end reliever and maybe something else on the position player side (like a backup catcher or hopefully a backup SS who's not a scumbag), and so they're trying really hard to move money in the trade market. The people that Mooney et all are talking to see how desperately they're trying to move money. and assume they don't already have the 30+ million lying around for Bryce.

 

More realistically, they've got 15-20 million to play with and would need to move all of Chatwood just to get Bryce, to say nothing of bringing in another reliever and/or other stuff.

[Andy]

Like would be in love with where this team was going because of the hot finish? Because the offense was really, really good for a longer stretch than it was bad last year. The bad offense is more recent though and sticks in our minds. I still think we are closer to the really good up to August offense than whatever the hell the last 2 months were moving forward in to this year.

 

 

This hypothetical doesn't account for the fact that even when the offense was good, there was extreme variability from game to game. Average runs per game are misleading when the standard deviation is massive. I haven't bothered to run the numbers, but the variability has got to be far bigger than normal. The sheer volume of runs the team scored on the days the the offense was on, masks overall problems with the offense when looking backward.

I’d really like to see these numbers actually since it’s been a topic we often discuss and find out if the offense is really all that volatile and varies that much compared to other teams. I feel like on surface every teams fans thinks their offense isn’t “consistent” enough. The numbers would be very interesting to see if that’s actually the case if someone wants to take the time to run them, because I’m not aware of a site or stat that tracks it.

 

My gut feeling is we don’t vary all that differently from other teams and most teams don’t just score 3-4 runs a game all that much more consistently than us (if we’re assuming around there is the magical being consistent number) most teams probably cluster around 2 or less and 5 or more.

Sharma took a look at this last summer and the 2018 Cubs were abnormally inconsistent.

[Tim]

 

 

This hypothetical doesn't account for the fact that even when the offense was good, there was extreme variability from game to game. Average runs per game are misleading when the standard deviation is massive. I haven't bothered to run the numbers, but the variability has got to be far bigger than normal. The sheer volume of runs the team scored on the days the the offense was on, masks overall problems with the offense when looking backward.

I’d really like to see these numbers actually since it’s been a topic we often discuss and find out if the offense is really all that volatile and varies that much compared to other teams. I feel like on surface every teams fans thinks their offense isn’t “consistent” enough. The numbers would be very interesting to see if that’s actually the case if someone wants to take the time to run them, because I’m not aware of a site or stat that tracks it.

 

My gut feeling is we don’t vary all that differently from other teams and most teams don’t just score 3-4 runs a game all that much more consistently than us (if we’re assuming around there is the magical being consistent number) most teams probably cluster around 2 or less and 5 or more.

Sharma took a look at this last summer and the 2018 Cubs were abnormally inconsistent.

I remember not being a fan of his methodology, but generally agreeing with the conclusion.