10/28 World Series Game 3 Cleveland (Tomlin) @ CUBS (Hendricks) 7:08 CDT, Fox

[Cubswin11]

Are you going to bench Fowler, Bryant, Rizzo, or Russell?

 

Because if you're going to react to Javy's WS # you should apply that overreaction to the other guys whose numbers are identical to his.

 

Well, those guys are actually a lot better hitters than Javy

 

They're performing as bad as he is right now and in a couple cases much worse over the past month.

 

Why does Javy get the short leash on 3 games of struggles?

Because there's a [expletive] of evidence that this is the hitter he his and that's not the case with the other guys. There may be nothing for him to come out of offensively.

[USSoccer]

 

Well, those guys are actually a lot better hitters than Javy

 

They're performing as bad as he is right now and in a couple cases much worse over the past month.

 

Why does Javy get the short leash on 3 games of struggles?

Because there's a [expletive] of evidence that this is the hitter he his and that's not the case with the other guys. There may be nothing for him to come out of offensively.

 

Oh gotcha because players don't evolve or circumstances don't change. Jorge Soler hit some HR last year so he's an offensive threat. Addison Russell is a sub Mendoza hitter since late August but that doesn't matter because reasons.

 

Some of the arguments made in blind favor of certain players are horsefeathering insufferable.

[Cubswin11]

 

They're performing as bad as he is right now and in a couple cases much worse over the past month.

 

Why does Javy get the short leash on 3 games of struggles?

Because there's a [expletive] of evidence that this is the hitter he his and that's not the case with the other guys. There may be nothing for him to come out of offensively.

 

Oh gotcha because players don't evolve or circumstances don't change. Jorge Soler hit some HR last year so he's an offensive threat. Addison Russell is a sub Mendoza hitter since late August but that doesn't matter because reasons.

 

Some of the arguments made in blind favor of certain players are [expletive] insufferable.

Well, he's certainly shown improvements this year and was/is trending in the right direction. The numbers still reflect he's a pretty shitty hitter vs RHP. I'm still fine with him getting starts this WS. He's probably the best option.

Edited October 29, 2016 by Cubswin11

[hawkeyecub]

It landed a couple feet in front of slow ass Soler. You don't think someone who doesn't suck has a play on it?

 

Not to mention if the Cubs version of a combine hero bothered to run hard out of the box he probably scores on that misplayed triple

 

I can't believe people think he actually could/should have scored on that.

[USSoccer]

What do those numbers say about Russell in his last 200 or so PA?

 

Then tell me about trends and how we should react to them.

[hawkeyecub]

 

Sorry, I forgot I'm not allowed to question one of Theo's guys.

 

What the horsefeathers is wrong with you?

[squally1313]

Caught up through the last ten pages or so this morning. Favorite part was the dude calling for an all defense lineup that somehow didn't include Javy Baez. Ok.

 

Heyward isn't catching that ball, and literally no one is scoring on Soler's fly ball. That thing started out like 15 rows deep. Go back through the playoffs and I guarantee every single person in the lineup has popped a ball up and half-assed it down the line. Should they have been busting it out in case the shortstop drops out? In a video game world, sure. In real life, that's just not how these things work.

 

We should have scored against Tomlin, and eventually we're going to need to break through against the bullpen. Miller is great, the rest don't do much for me. Wish Maddon would be more like Francona with Chapman, but it is what it is at this point. Even with that, we're still the much better team. Hopefully that translates into winning three out of the next four.

[Derwood]

538 estimates that took the Cubs from 62% to 37% to win the series.

 

lol what is the point of these stupid percentages. "cubs are 60% to win! oh they lost well now they're 40%! Oops they won again, back to 60% Crap they lost, uhhhh 37%!"

 

It gives nervous ninnies things to be nervous ninnies about

[gobigred]

http://m.indians.mlb.com/news/article/207495532/statcast-proves-soler-couldnt-catch-crisp-hit/

[gobigred]

[Schwarber Fan]

 

I rest my case.

[Schwarber Fan]

Also, somebody start the damn game 4 thread. I don't care who.

[Derwood]

 

Assuming Heyward was standing in the exact same place Soler was when the ball was hit, sure.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

538 estimates that took the Cubs from 62% to 37% to win the series.

 

lol what is the point of these stupid percentages. "cubs are 60% to win! oh they lost well now they're 40%! Oops they won again, back to 60% Crap they lost, uhhhh 37%!"

 

It gives nervous ninnies things to be nervous ninnies about

 

Never tell Derwood the odds

[USSoccer]

 

Sorry, I forgot I'm not allowed to question one of Theo's guys.

 

What the horsefeathers is wrong with you?

 

Sorry is this attacking the post or the poster?

 

I'll add Soler to the list of guys I shouldn't criticize, lest I get cussed out.

[Derwood]

 

lol what is the point of these stupid percentages. "cubs are 60% to win! oh they lost well now they're 40%! Oops they won again, back to 60% Crap they lost, uhhhh 37%!"

 

It gives nervous ninnies things to be nervous ninnies about

 

Never tell Derwood the odds

 

Not when they're meaningless nonsense, no, don't tell me

[Little Slide Rooter]

 

If so, it wouldn't be a benching so much as an odd man out. I still firmly believe that the best way to nest these guys is with defense. Put Almora in LF, Heyward in RF. Obviously, this means Russell at SS. Javy may be a better all around 2B than Zobrist, but Zobrist has been our one consistent bat this series.

 

I doubt it will go down like this, but if so, it would be nice to have the bats of Schwarber, Javy, and Soler late in the game.

 

Speaking of the game, whomever's up, drag your ass out of bed, wipe away the bourbon laced tears and, and get to work.

Yes, definitely let's look to prioritize defense over offense after having been shut out two of the first three games of the series. Makes sense.

 

yeah i was kinda scratching my head at that one too

 

Look at it this way; prior to the World Series, the Indians scored a grand total of 0 runs in the 7th inning and beyond. They also gave up a grand total of 4 runs in the 7th inning and behind, 3 of which came in their only loss.

So far, they've scored 4 7th inning or later runs on us. 3 of those came on an unlikely blast by Roberto Perez against a rusty Rondon, and the other was a single that could possibly have been prevented had Heyward been in LT.

 

To sum it up, the key here seems to be as much about run prevention as production. Yes, that's always the case, but it seems especially important vs. Francona's Indians. In a close game, he's going to go from the starter->Miller->(sometimes) Shaw->Allen. This is no doubt a formidable combination, and being down by any number of runs here is very bad. But the Indian's pen is a steep decline from there.

 

Bottom line: I know I t sounds absurd to enter a game thinking in terms of entering the 9th inning tied at 1-1 or 0-0. But vs. the Indians, it could be the best strategy. If Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist can ding Kluber to death, great; but I don't think it should be the primary plan of attack vs. a curve throwing ace. But if we can get to the 9th in a tie, I really like the chances against the rest of the Indians bullpen with Schwarber, Baez, and Soler awaiting on the bench.

 

And just to be clear, this isn't about benching Javy. But with Zobrist being the hot bat right now, I'd give him the edge. There's also the option of Almora-Heyward-Zobrist across the OF with Javy at 2nd, but I don't know how much of a hit the defense would take.

 

But I should also acknowledge that we're sending out John Lackey, who's a big drop from Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks. So who knows. It was just a thought.

[Billy_Buck]

How is everyone feeling today?

Need more coffee.

[David]

 

Sorry, I forgot I'm not allowed to question one of Theo's guys.

 

What the horsefeathers is wrong with you?

 

Sorry is this attacking the post or the poster?

 

I'll add Soler to the list of guys I shouldn't criticize, lest I get cussed out.

 

you really still haven't forgiven theo for letting aramis walk have you

[hawkeyecub]

Backtobanks is back I guess.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

 

It gives nervous ninnies things to be nervous ninnies about

 

Never tell Derwood the odds

 

Not when they're meaningless nonsense, no, don't tell me

 

OK. Presume those posts aren't for your eyes then

[Little Slide Rooter]

 

It gives nervous ninnies things to be nervous ninnies about

 

Never tell Derwood the odds

 

Not when they're meaningless nonsense, no, don't tell me

 

I wouldn't say nonsense. When the series was tied at 1, 3/5 remaining games at Wrigley, and 3/5 pitching matchups favoring us, then 60% may have seemed a bit low for us. But now that we're down 2-1, with the final 2 games to be split home and away and the pitching matchups 2/2, the 40% seems about right. And if we win tonight, I suspect that it will shift to 50/50 or 55/45, in either team's favor.

 

But yeah, it's very subjective. It's like saying today that there's a 10% chance of rain next Wednesday, but next Monday, there's a storm moving in, so suddenly there's 40% chance. The odds are based upon current conditions. So the oddsmakers ardent so much predicting the future as they are analyzing the present.

[Derwood]

 

Never tell Derwood the odds

 

Not when they're meaningless nonsense, no, don't tell me

 

I wouldn't say nonsense. When the series was tied at 1, 3/5 remaining games at Wrigley, and 3/5 pitching matchups favoring us, then 60% may have seemed a bit low for us. But now that we're down 2-1, with the final 2 games to be split home and away and the pitching matchups 2/2, the 40% seems about right. And if we win tonight, I suspect that it will shift to 50/50 or 55/45, in either team's favor.

 

But yeah, it's very subjective. It's like saying today that there's a 10% chance of rain next Wednesday, but next Monday, there's a storm moving in, so suddenly there's 40% chance. The odds are based upon current conditions. So the oddsmakers ardent so much predicting the future as they are analyzing the present.

 

Which anyone with a brain can do without 538's help

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Anyone with a brain can tell good players from bad, but WAR is still interesting.

 

You're not mad at the use of the numbers. You're displacing your anger at what the numbers say.

[Derwood]

I'm not mad at anything. I'm annoyed by the people who can't watch a game without checking the win probability % every pitch