On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

[Clem Fandango]

Abreu just got $16.67m a year after two years putting up 3.1 WAR combined.

If you think Anthony Rizzo would get more on the open market per year than Bryce Harper, I’m not sure what to tell you.

Why are you talking about $33 million?

 

The Fangraphs dollar statistics I think

[KingCubsFan]

yeah...all i noted was that his performance was worth what it was worth based on the math. and that includes him being dinged for his position (which he plays really damn well, FWIW).

 

never said he'd actually get that on the open market. entirely different story.

Fair. I just find the whole $/WAR calculation to be incredibly useless given how the market actually operates.

[jersey cubs fan]

If you think Anthony Rizzo would get more on the open market per year than Bryce Harper, I’m not sure what to tell you.

Why are you talking about $33 million?

Responding to the original post that, for 2 of the past 3 years, Rizzo was "worth" nearly twice the $16.5m he is scheduled to be paid. For some reason the original post isn't included in your quote.

Nobody said that's what he'd get. Nobody thinks that's what he'd get. That number is what he was "worth" statistically. But guys never get that number. The point is he's been underpaid by a wide margin and will remain underpaid under this contract. He'd make a crapton more if at any point he had reached free agency, including right now.

[ConstableRabbit]

It's really weird to discuss whether someone is overpaid or underpaid, and then reference a dollar value number that isn't rooted in the realities of the real world market. Fangraphs also lists 921 players with zero or negative salary values -- it's just not a good proxy for real salaries.

[KingCubsFan]

Why are you talking about $33 million?

Responding to the original post that, for 2 of the past 3 years, Rizzo was "worth" nearly twice the $16.5m he is scheduled to be paid. For some reason the original post isn't included in your quote.

Nobody said that's what he'd get. Nobody thinks that's what he'd get. That number is what he was "worth" statistically. But guys never get that number. The point is he's been underpaid by a wide margin and will remain underpaid under this contract. He'd make a crapton more if at any point he had reached free agency, including right now.

It's not even worth discussing. It's a completely useless data point (as CR points out above), and it certainly adds nothing to determining whether he is underpaid.

[jersey cubs fan]

Responding to the original post that, for 2 of the past 3 years, Rizzo was "worth" nearly twice the $16.5m he is scheduled to be paid. For some reason the original post isn't included in your quote.

Nobody said that's what he'd get. Nobody thinks that's what he'd get. That number is what he was "worth" statistically. But guys never get that number. The point is he's been underpaid by a wide margin and will remain underpaid under this contract. He'd make a crapton more if at any point he had reached free agency, including right now.

It's not even worth discussing. It's a completely useless data point (as CR points out above), and it certainly adds nothing to determining whether he is underpaid.

Then stop referencing it.

 

He's underpaid.

[ConstableRabbit]

Nobody said that's what he'd get. Nobody thinks that's what he'd get. That number is what he was "worth" statistically. But guys never get that number. The point is he's been underpaid by a wide margin and will remain underpaid under this contract. He'd make a crapton more if at any point he had reached free agency, including right now.

It's not even worth discussing. It's a completely useless data point (as CR points out above), and it certainly adds nothing to determining whether he is underpaid.

Then stop referencing it.

 

He's underpaid.

He's underpaid... by design. He signed a deal hoping that he'd become good enough to be underpaid in 2020. He preferred to take guaranteed money up front vs. taking a risk of waiting it out. It's not some wrong that has to be righted by overpaying him for his age-32 season and beyond.

[KingCubsFan]

Nobody said that's what he'd get. Nobody thinks that's what he'd get. That number is what he was "worth" statistically. But guys never get that number. The point is he's been underpaid by a wide margin and will remain underpaid under this contract. He'd make a crapton more if at any point he had reached free agency, including right now.

It's not even worth discussing. It's a completely useless data point (as CR points out above), and it certainly adds nothing to determining whether he is underpaid.

Then stop referencing it.

 

He's underpaid.

I was responding to your question. If you scrolled up the page, I wouldn’t have to. But I suppose that’s not how you get to 61k posts.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's underpaid... by design. He signed a deal hoping that he'd become good enough to be underpaid in 2020. He preferred to take guaranteed money up front vs. taking a huge risk. It's not some wrong that has to be righted by overpaying him for his age-32 season and beyond.

 

My goodness this is a freaking frustrating conversation.

 

No kidding that was the design. The topic of conversation was about an extension for Rizzo, and ways to get one that doesn't leave you shelling out big for an old done dude. My opinion is the easiest way to extend him "cheaply" is by throwing a little extra money his way now. Show him some love for more than living up to his contract and providing you a ton of profit. And then maybe he'd sign something feasible.

 

If you make him play out this deal then he's got more incentive to try and get the best deal he can get next time around.

 

If you don't want to keep him at all, fine, let him walk.

 

Personally, I'd trade him.

[David]

It's not even worth discussing. It's a completely useless data point (as CR points out above), and it certainly adds nothing to determining whether he is underpaid.

Then stop referencing it.

 

He's underpaid.

He's underpaid... by design. He signed a deal hoping that he'd become good enough to be underpaid in 2020. He preferred to take guaranteed money up front vs. taking a risk of waiting it out. It's not some wrong that has to be righted by overpaying him for his age-32 season and beyond.

 

nobody is saying that. some people, myself included, are saying that given what he has meant to the organization and fan base both on and off field, they wouldn't be terribly mad if the cubs kept him around at a somewhat inefficient salary past the next two years. that doesn't mean that's what I (or whoever else) want to happen.

 

but considering they are pretending to be poor, there's lots of places i'd want that money spent first barring things changing drastically over the next two years.

[squally1313]

It's really weird to discuss whether someone is overpaid or underpaid, and then reference a dollar value number that isn't rooted in the realities of the real world market. Fangraphs also lists 921 players with zero or negative salary values -- it's just not a good proxy for real salaries.

I mean, to be fair, all they are saying is that those 921 players are overpaid given their contributions. No one is pretending to use these amounts as a guide for free agency, but I think it's definitely fair to say that Rizzo's contributions were worth around the numbers they say, which would then make him underpaid.

 

If I'm Theo, I offer him like...5 years, $80m, throw a couple options on there at the end if you want. It's probably a little too much, but I'm being sentimental and I could also make an argument about it being a good business decision, if not a good baseball decision.

[Bote McBoteface]

He's underpaid... by design. He signed a deal hoping that he'd become good enough to be underpaid in 2020. He preferred to take guaranteed money up front vs. taking a huge risk. It's not some wrong that has to be righted by overpaying him for his age-32 season and beyond.

 

My goodness this is a freaking frustrating conversation.

 

No kidding that was the design. The topic of conversation was about an extension for Rizzo, and ways to get one that doesn't leave you shelling out big for an old done dude. My opinion is the easiest way to extend him "cheaply" is by throwing a little extra money his way now. Show him some love for more than living up to his contract and providing you a ton of profit. And then maybe he'd sign something feasible.

 

If you make him play out this deal then he's got more incentive to try and get the best deal he can get next time around.

 

If you don't want to keep him at all, fine, let him walk.

 

Personally, I'd trade him.

 

I’m firmly on the “trade Rizzo” bandwagon, both because i think its best for us long-term and I think its what this FO will eventually decide on. But I get laughed out of every place I bring it up at. His contract makes him ultra-valuable, and with two years of control left, this is where his value will most likely peak. First base is the easiest position to fill, and we have in house options available in Schwarber, Bryant, Contreras, and Vic....not that I’m endorsing moving any of those players to 1st base, just that doing so is a legitimate option.

 

In a hypothetical world where we trade Rizzo for a SP to slot in between Yu and Kyle, move Schwarber to 1st and sign Castellanos using Rizzo’s money, I think we’re much better off than if we had kept Rizzo. Thats assuming you think Schwarber can move to 1st and be at least average defensively. Maybe you don’t think that, thats OK, theres still like 50 different options.

 

At the very least, thats what I’d do if this was MLB The Show. The only thing I havent figured out is who is likely to interested in Rizzo, and what SP we could realistically get in a trade for him.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Bote McBoteface

[Cubswin11]

He's underpaid... by design. He signed a deal hoping that he'd become good enough to be underpaid in 2020. He preferred to take guaranteed money up front vs. taking a huge risk. It's not some wrong that has to be righted by overpaying him for his age-32 season and beyond.

 

My goodness this is a freaking frustrating conversation.

 

No kidding that was the design. The topic of conversation was about an extension for Rizzo, and ways to get one that doesn't leave you shelling out big for an old done dude. My opinion is the easiest way to extend him "cheaply" is by throwing a little extra money his way now. Show him some love for more than living up to his contract and providing you a ton of profit. And then maybe he'd sign something feasible.

 

If you make him play out this deal then he's got more incentive to try and get the best deal he can get next time around.

 

If you don't want to keep him at all, fine, let him walk.

 

Personally, I'd trade him.

 

I’m firmly on the “trade Rizzo” bandwagon, both because i think its best for us long-term and I think its what this FO will eventually decide on. But I get laughed out of every place I bring it up at. His contract makes him ultra-valuable, and with two years of control left, this is where his value will most likely peak. First base is the easiest position to fill, and we have in house options available in Schwarber, Bryant, Contreras, and Vic....not that I’m endorsing moving any of those players to 1st base, just that doing so is a legitimate option.

 

In a hypothetical world where we trade Rizzo for a SP to slot in between Yu and Kyle, move Schwarber to 1st and sign Castellanos using Rizzo’s money, I think we’re much better off than if we had kept Rizzo. Thats assuming you think Schwarber can move to 1st. Maybe you don’t think that, thats OK, theres still like 50 different options.

 

The only thing I havent figured out is who is likely to interested in Rizzo, and what SP we could realistically get in a trade for him

You’re not getting a pitcher who’s top ~25 in MLB for him (slotting between Yu and Kyle I take as what that means, like we aren’t getting Berrios or Nola for him) and going from Rizzo to Castellanos is a significant downgrade on offense and defense. Castellanos does nothing better than Rizzo offensively and you’re adding a horrible defender to the OF and worse defense to 1B most likely. Rizzo isn’t all that valuable in a trade and probably holds more value to us to just keep, imo.

 

A team would likely think they could or would rather try cobble together Rizzo’s WAR at 1B by just signing like Thames or Moreland and some RHH guy who handles lefties for less than $10 mil. Than give up anything of much value, IMO.

Edited December 11, 2019 by Cubswin11

[squally1313]

He's underpaid... by design. He signed a deal hoping that he'd become good enough to be underpaid in 2020. He preferred to take guaranteed money up front vs. taking a huge risk. It's not some wrong that has to be righted by overpaying him for his age-32 season and beyond.

 

My goodness this is a freaking frustrating conversation.

 

No kidding that was the design. The topic of conversation was about an extension for Rizzo, and ways to get one that doesn't leave you shelling out big for an old done dude. My opinion is the easiest way to extend him "cheaply" is by throwing a little extra money his way now. Show him some love for more than living up to his contract and providing you a ton of profit. And then maybe he'd sign something feasible.

 

If you make him play out this deal then he's got more incentive to try and get the best deal he can get next time around.

 

If you don't want to keep him at all, fine, let him walk.

 

Personally, I'd trade him.

 

I’m firmly on the “trade Rizzo” bandwagon, both because i think its best for us long-term and I think its what this FO will eventually decide on. But I get laughed out of every place I bring it up at. His contract makes him ultra-valuable, and with two years of control left, this is where his value will most likely peak. First base is the easiest position to fill, and we have in house options available in Schwarber, Bryant, Contreras, and Vic....not that I’m endorsing moving any of those players to 1st base, just that doing so is a legitimate option.

 

In a hypothetical world where we trade Rizzo for a SP to slot in between Yu and Kyle, move Schwarber to 1st and sign Castellanos using Rizzo’s money, I think we’re much better off than if we had kept Rizzo. Thats assuming you think Schwarber can move to 1st. Maybe you don’t think that, thats OK, theres still like 50 different options.

 

The only thing I havent figured out is who is likely to interested in Rizzo, and what SP we could realistically get in a trade for him

 

This logic doesn't really hold up. I understand that most professional baseball players can at least fake first base, and I'll even set aside the fact that Rizzo is a very good defensive first baseman. But just because Schwarber or Caratini can play first base does not mean that putting them there isn't a clear downgrade. Rizzo is a career 132 wRC hitter, 141 last year, projected for 135 in 2020. The only player from your list that's even topped 130 is Bryant, and Rizzo has outhit him the last two years. Setting aside a potential Contreras trade, swapping Rizzo and Caratini in the line up one way or another is a clear downgrade. Moving Schwarber without a replacement is the same thing. Your Castellanos idea means we get worse defensively at two positions, still end up with a worse line up, and, well, sorry....you are out of your mind if you think we're getting anything close to a pitcher with the ability of Hendricks or Darvish.

[Bull]

I know everyone wants to get paid, but I could see this as Rizzo reaching out to take a longer, lower contract to “help” the Cubs keep Bryant. I think Rizzo is as nostalgic as we are and then some,

 

Bobby Bonilla him. Pay him 3 million a year forever. Pay his great-grandkids 3 million a year until they die.

[Brian]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[CubinNY]

Where does Rizzo currently rank Among NL 1st?

[David]

Where does Rizzo currently rank Among NL 1st?

2nd or 3rdish... prob 3rd

[UMFan83]

Where does Rizzo currently rank Among NL 1st?

 

Freeman, Alonso, Rizzo, Bell, Muncy?

[Clem Fandango]

I mean if we're going off this past season, and we anticipate some big hitters to carry over and not lose a step then Muncy and Alonso have to be considered top 1B, but if we're going off of longevity and consistent success at the position I think it's Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rizzo, in that order.

[PackLandVA]

Gonna take more than 1 rookie season for me to think Alonso is the top 1-3 in the NL. Long history a players having great rookie seasons followed by not-so-great careers.

[Bote McBoteface]

Gonna take more than 1 rookie season for me to think Alonso is the top 1-3 in the NL. Long history a players having great rookie seasons followed by not-so-great careers.

 

I mean jeez, even Pujols only had one rookie season.

[David]

I mean if we're going off this past season, and we anticipate some big hitters to carry over and not lose a step then Muncy and Alonso have to be considered top 1B, but if we're going off of longevity and consistent success at the position I think it's Goldschmidt, Freeman, Rizzo, in that order.

 

I would prob combine the two approaches and have it something like

 

Muncy, Freeman, Rizzo, Goldy

[Bertz]

Assuming we're considering Bellinger an OF, I think Freeman is the only guy I would consider better than Rizzo. That said I think given ages Alonso and Matt Olson (the only AL 1b worth discussing) are reasonable choices. It also wouldn't be crazy for 2019 to be a blip and for Goldschmidt to still be better.

[Cubswin11]

Assuming we're considering Bellinger an OF, I think Freeman is the only guy I would consider better than Rizzo. That said I think given ages Alonso and Matt Olson (the only AL 1b worth discussing) are reasonable choices. It also wouldn't be crazy for 2019 to be a blip and for Goldschmidt to still be better.

Pretty much my thoughts. I don’t think ordering most of the 1B mentioned in any order 1-5 I’d take much objection too. Muncy is only 1 year younger than Rizzo and even though he’s been better recently it’s only 2 seasons, I’d lean Rizzo there just on track record. Also agree on some Alonso comments as well, only 1 season and if the K/BB rates even go 1-3 points the wrong ways and he’s “only” 30-40 HR guy he isn’t all that valuable (he’s probably the guy mentioned who benefits most from the juiced ball). I think I’d go Freeman, Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Muncy, Alonso in that order for NL 1B right now.