General Cubs Chit-Chat

[jersey cubs fan]

the Cubs had the best offseason of any team, by net 2021 WAR added from newcomers minus WAR lost from departures.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nl-central-preview-who-will-play-spoiler-to-the-brewers/

More about the fact that they didn’t lose any quality free agents, they were already gone.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'll take the under on that 74.7

[Backtobanks]

the Cubs had the best offseason of any team, by net 2021 WAR added from newcomers minus WAR lost from departures.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nl-central-preview-who-will-play-spoiler-to-the-brewers/

 

Mind you, that doesn't include Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo all being shipped off at the deadline.

 

After the trade deadline, they were playing at a rate that translated to about 52 wins over a 162 game schedule. That put them near the Orioles in incompetence.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

OMG BIG IF TRUE

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Bertz]

 

Seemed likely he'd make the bullpen now official

[Bertz]

Sharma has a good article up in the Athletic this AM laying out the OD roster since it's nearly set. Guys with asterisks are not 100%:

 

C - Contreras, Gomes

1B - Schwindel, Rivas*

2B - Madrigal, Villar

SS - Hoerner

3B - Wisdom

LF - Happ, Frazier

CF - Heyward, Hermosillo, Ortega

RF - Suzuki

 

Sounds like 14 Position players to start the year. They might drop down to 13 fairly quickly, but they A) don't need an 11 man bullpen immediately and B) want to punt the decision to cut an OFer as long as possible. Vargas is a possibility instead of Rivas, but the team doesn't love having to DFA someone to open the roster spot. Simmons' stay on the IL is expected to be for the minimum.

 

SP - Kyle, Stro, Steele, Smyly, Mills*

 

The team doesn't need a fifth starter the first run through the rotation. So Mills and Thompson will piggyback against the Brewers, and then one will pick up a real start with the Rockies. Miley is expected back the first week of May.

 

RP - Wick, Robertson, Givens*, Martin, Norris, Chavez, Thompson, Effross, Roberts*

 

Givens is a bit behind because of the late signing, but probably gonna be fine for opening day. That last spot is going to one of the Iowa guys with options, so Rodriguez, Rucker, or Roberts.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Sharma has a good article up in the Athletic this AM laying out the OD roster since it's nearly set. Guys with asterisks are not 100%:

 

C - Contreras, Gomes

1B - Schwindel, Rivas*

2B - Madrigal, Villar

SS - Hoerner

3B - Wisdom

LF - Happ, Frazier

CF - Heyward, Hermosillo, Ortega

RF - Suzuki

 

Sounds like 14 Position players to start the year. They might drop down to 13 fairly quickly, but they A) don't need an 11 man bullpen immediately and B) want to punt the decision to cut an OFer as long as possible. Vargas is a possibility instead of Rivas, but the team doesn't love having to DFA someone to open the roster spot. Simmons' stay on the IL is expected to be for the minimum.

 

SP - Kyle, Stro, Steele, Smyly, Mills*

 

The team doesn't need a fifth starter the first run through the rotation. So Mills and Thompson will piggyback against the Brewers, and then one will pick up a real start with the Rockies. Miley is expected back the first week of May.

 

RP - Wick, Robertson, Givens*, Martin, Norris, Chavez, Thompson, Effross, Roberts*

 

Givens is a bit behind because of the late signing, but probably gonna be fine for opening day. That last spot is going to one of the Iowa guys with options, so Rodriguez, Rucker, or Roberts.

I'm curious to know which players, besides Villar, whom was mentioned specifically, showed up to camp looking like they hadn't been in a gym, or had begun ramping up their baseball activities.

 

To me it's a little curious that a guy with Rodriguez' stuff has only 3 appearances and is ticketed for Iowa. Same with Wick and Abbott, whom feels like the type of fungible arm they need. They've barely pitched.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

To me it's a little curious that a guy with Rodriguez' stuff has only 3 appearances and is ticketed for Iowa. Same with Wick and Abbott, whom feels like the type of fungible arm they need. They've barely pitched.

 

Wick is a lock for the major league pen and probably a setup role, did you mean someone else?

 

Abbott is a starter who hasn't been able to prevent damage at AAA and doesn't throw all that hard, so he's not a surprise to not get a serious look at the MLB pen with this many options of interest.

 

Rodriguez hasn't been optioned that I can see so he may still get another appearance or two. The only players with 5+ appearances are Effross(pitching very well), Rucker(also pitching very well), and Yardley(NRI they're getting a good look at) so it's not all that disproportionate.

[We Got The Whole 9]

To me it's a little curious that a guy with Rodriguez' stuff has only 3 appearances and is ticketed for Iowa. Same with Wick and Abbott, whom feels like the type of fungible arm they need. They've barely pitched.

 

Wick is a lock for the major league pen and probably a setup role, did you mean someone else?

 

Abbott is a starter who hasn't been able to prevent damage at AAA and doesn't throw all that hard, so he's not a surprise to not get a serious look at the MLB pen with this many options of interest.

 

Rodriguez hasn't been optioned that I can see so he may still get another appearance or two. The only players with 5+ appearances are Effross(pitching very well), Rucker(also pitching very well), and Yardley(NRI they're getting a good look at) so it's not all that disproportionate.

 

I meant Wick. His walk rate exploded last year and I would just figure they'd want him to have more than 2-3 tune-ups before the season starts. And I know what Abbott did last year but he did get screwed out of a year of development following his org MiLB POY designation in 2019. He has a stronger track record than Keegan Thompson but he was really bad last year for sure. Seems like a guy that should have been facing more ML hitters than he did before he was optioned; not necessarily in the pen but in general.

[Regular Show]

Not sure if anyone posted this weird tribute to great moments in Cubs pitcher hitting lol:

 

 

I'm all for the universal DH, but I will miss those moments when a Cubs pitcher hits a dong and/or gets a big hit. We've had quite a few pitchers (Fergie Jenkins, Zambrano, Wood, Arrieta, Hendricks) over the years that could really hit, or at least were threats to do some damage with the bat.

[Bertz]

 

Manny appears to no longer be in the running for that final pen spot, everything else here is completely expected (Ueckert might have had a shot at the pen if he was on the 40)

[We Got The Whole 9]

Yeah just a gut feeling but I think Rodriguez didn't show up to camp in the shape they had hoped he would have. Before the season I would have figured he was practically a lock with his electric stuff but they barely even used him.

[Derwood]

ESPN's season preview has the Cubs as the #22 team in the league. Oof.

[UMFan83]

ESPN's season preview has the Cubs as the #22 team in the league. Oof.

 

Why oof? That's right in the range I would expect them. Lower end of that range but still in there. Like the article points out the Cubs have built a high floor/low ceiling type of team IMO. It's hard to really project them so I'd expect most "experts" would go conservative on them.

[Derwood]

ESPN's season preview has the Cubs as the #22 team in the league. Oof.

 

Why oof? That's right in the range I would expect them. Lower end of that range but still in there. Like the article points out the Cubs have built a high floor/low ceiling type of team IMO. It's hard to really project them so I'd expect most "experts" would go conservative on them.

 

 

It wasn’t an “oof” of surprise, it was an “oof” of ESPN reinforcing the awfulness of the roster.

[CubinNY]

ESPN's season preview has the Cubs as the #22 team in the league. Oof.

 

Why oof? That's right in the range I would expect them. Lower end of that range but still in there. Like the article points out the Cubs have built a high floor/low ceiling type of team IMO. It's hard to really project them so I'd expect most "experts" would go conservative on them.

 

 

It wasn’t an “oof” of surprise, it was an “oof” of ESPN reinforcing the awfulness of the roster.

Their rosters at AAA and AA aren't in great shape either. It's Davis and a bunch of relievers and not much else. But don't call it a rebuild.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Seems high

[UMFan83]

 

Why oof? That's right in the range I would expect them. Lower end of that range but still in there. Like the article points out the Cubs have built a high floor/low ceiling type of team IMO. It's hard to really project them so I'd expect most "experts" would go conservative on them.

 

 

It wasn’t an “oof” of surprise, it was an “oof” of ESPN reinforcing the awfulness of the roster.

Their rosters at AAA and AA aren't in great shape either. It's Davis and a bunch of relievers and not much else. But don't call it a rebuild.

 

They're in such a weird situation. It's not really a rebuild and its definitely not really a retool. Like mentioned its probably a high floor team (though could get derailed with injuries due to lack of depth - Miley already scheduled to miss 3-4 weeks is not a great start), but they also have the ability to add like $70m in salary like nothing and still not be top 5 in baseball. If the team shows potential maybe they go nuts at the deadline because as critical as I am about the Rickett's insane cheapness I'm confident they are using the Jerry Reinsdorf playbook of "I'm willing to spend big money if the team is a contender".

[squally1313]

I feel like when people talk optimistically about the team, relatively, it's about how the offense is built to be that high floor/low ceiling mix that is theoretically attractive coming less than a year after tearing down the old guard. But the starting rotation is really, really bad, and I don't know what the optimistic view point is there. Yeah we have a lot of bullpen arms and maybe eventually after we weed out all the bad ones we might end up with a decent mix, but they are going to be worked to the bone on non-Stroman days. And even then, the path to 'contention' is mostly paved with 'look how bad the rest of the division is! plus maybe Burnes gets hurt like most pitchers do!' It's just not at all exciting. Thank god for Wrigley.

[squally1313]

FG position power rankings:

 

Catcher: 13th (and the player most likely to be traded!)

First base: 24th

Second base: 17th

Shortstop: 24th

Third Base: 26th

Left Field: 15th

Center Field: 21st

Right Field: 6th

DH: 24th

 

This is the good part of the team! It's Seiya and....???

 

Bullpen: 23rd

 

Starters should come out tomorrow. Just wall to wall depressing, with all of one exception.

[jersey cubs fan]

yeah, I really don't see the high floor idea. they've got as good of a chance as most non-contenders to be terrible. There's plenty of volatility on this roster

[Cubswin11]

I feel like when people talk optimistically about the team, relatively, it's about how the offense is built to be that high floor/low ceiling mix that is theoretically attractive coming less than a year after tearing down the old guard. But the starting rotation is really, really bad, and I don't know what the optimistic view point is there.Yeah we have a lot of bullpen arms and maybe eventually after we weed out all the bad ones we might end up with a decent mix, but they are going to be worked to the bone on non-Stroman days. And even then, the path to 'contention' is mostly paved with 'look how bad the rest of the division is! plus maybe Burnes gets hurt like most pitchers do!' It's just not at all exciting. Thank god for Wrigley.

 

I don’t think it’s “really, really bad.” Hendricks and Stroman should combine for 6+ WAR, he’s hurt but once Miley is healthy he’s probably good for 1-2 WAR, Mills/Smyly probably add another 1-2 WAR, then if we can get anything out of one of the young guys (Keegan, Kilian, Steele, etc) it’s a decent enough rotation. Not super high end/ceiling but there’s enough there for it to be middle of the pack like ~10 WAR 15thish in the league. Nothing to be excited about and they should’ve done more but I can see the rotation being decent enough and I have faith the bullpen will be plenty good.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Between the position players and the rotation, there is maybe one spot where I would be legitimately shocked if they got a 3+ win performance(5 starter), it's easy for me to see that possibility basically everywhere. There's also at most 4-5 of those places where I would be surprised if they didn't get that 3+ win performance, which means there's like 8 different places where we could look in August and think "that place is taken with a good player" or that same guy might not even be on the roster. So yes if you look at the median outcome for all of these it's going to be uninspiring, but what's more likely instead of having 9 different performances of 1.4-1.7 WAR you get 3 of them that hit nicely, a few that get replaced before they can put in a full season of near replacement level production, and enough bodies of players who deserve a shot that you don't actually get dragged down by the misses.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Maybe said a different way, here's the fWAR per 600 PA of most of the position player group from just last year:

 

Schwindel 5.5

Madrigal 3.6

Wisdom 3.7

Ortega 2.9

Hoerner 2.8

Contreras 2.6

Gomes 2.6

Villar 2.5

Happ 1.5

 

Plus a few guys who have been at that level more than once in the past in Frazier and Simmons, plus Suzuki. If we got repeat performances from half of that group I'd be very happy, but the conversation here is taking justified pessimism about any individual one of them and assuming that's how it's going to happen for all of them and that's just not a realistic expectation.

[squally1313]

I feel like when people talk optimistically about the team, relatively, it's about how the offense is built to be that high floor/low ceiling mix that is theoretically attractive coming less than a year after tearing down the old guard. But the starting rotation is really, really bad, and I don't know what the optimistic view point is there.Yeah we have a lot of bullpen arms and maybe eventually after we weed out all the bad ones we might end up with a decent mix, but they are going to be worked to the bone on non-Stroman days. And even then, the path to 'contention' is mostly paved with 'look how bad the rest of the division is! plus maybe Burnes gets hurt like most pitchers do!' It's just not at all exciting. Thank god for Wrigley.

 

I don’t think it’s “really, really bad.” Hendricks and Stroman should combine for 6+ WAR, he’s hurt but once Miley is healthy he’s probably good for 1-2 WAR, Mills/Smyly probably add another 1-2 WAR, then if we can get anything out of one of the young guys (Keegan, Kilian, Steele, etc) it’s a decent enough rotation. Not super high end/ceiling but there’s enough there for it to be middle of the pack like ~10 WAR 15thish in the league. Nothing to be excited about and they should’ve done more but I can see the rotation being decent enough and I have faith the bullpen will be plenty good.

 

Setting aside the 6+ WAR prediction for Stroman/Hendricks (which I'm skeptical amount), the issue with the Miley/Smyly/Mills predictions is that the only way they put up that kind of production is just through volume. Their whole skill set is just 'mediocre when healthy'. There's almost no chance that one of them pops into some sort of top 30 starter in the league. And yes, I know Miley had his best year in 9 years last year and ended up at #30 for fWAR, but he's already hurt.

 

To TTs point, sure, a couple of Hendricks/name your offensive dude might pop up to 3 WARish, and by June you might figure out which guys are 1.5 win guys and which guys are terrible, but I don't see any 4.5+ guys. If you could run the numbers and strip out the worthless players and throw a roster of 80% 1.5 guys and 20% 3-3.5 guys, great, that would be boringly effective in a crappy division. But you can't, and we'll basically just be doing the bullpen experiment everyone loves where by the end of the season we have terrible overall numbers but we've 'finally found a good mix'....but with the whole roster.