Minor League Musings

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Question for farm experts, on alum Cris Morel.

1. I'm thinking I remember Morel having pretty strong lefty-righty splits as a minor-leaguer. Is that true or false?

 

2. I ask in part because he had strong anti-splits this season: OPS .782 RHP, .627 LHP.

 

3. How would you project forward? That his big-league split is real and projectable? Maybe his offense rests on HR's, and those come when RHP try to challenge him inside? Or probably a fluke, and his minor-league record is a better predictor?

 

4. I ask because Bellinger is a big-splits lefty. I'd like a solid-hitting RH platoon for him. Could Morel be that guy?

*Or likewise, there are some questions whether Mervis will handle LH pitching well at the big-league level? One possible platoon scenario could involve Morel at 3B with Wisdom playing 1st.

 

But considering Morel the Cubs best platoon option for either Bell or Mervis might be gross, or may not be something Cubs analytics will support or plan for, *IF* they think his awfulness vs LHP in 2022 will carry forward.

 

 

Baseball reference has L/R minor league splits: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=morel-000chr&type=bgl&year=2021

 

In 2021 he had a heavy platoon split, but he's had several minor league seasons that were more split neutral.

[Bertz]

Question for farm experts, on alum Cris Morel.

1. I'm thinking I remember Morel having pretty strong lefty-righty splits as a minor-leaguer. Is that true or false?

 

2. I ask in part because he had strong anti-splits this season: OPS .782 RHP, .627 LHP.

 

3. How would you project forward? That his big-league split is real and projectable? Maybe his offense rests on HR's, and those come when RHP try to challenge him inside? Or probably a fluke, and his minor-league record is a better predictor?

 

4. I ask because Bellinger is a big-splits lefty. I'd like a solid-hitting RH platoon for him. Could Morel be that guy?

*Or likewise, there are some questions whether Mervis will handle LH pitching well at the big-league level? One possible platoon scenario could involve Morel at 3B with Wisdom playing 1st.

 

But considering Morel the Cubs best platoon option for either Bell or Mervis might be gross, or may not be something Cubs analytics will support or plan for, *IF* they think his awfulness vs LHP in 2022 will carry forward.

 

Dan Szymborski, the projections guy, has said that you need a ton of PAs (IIRC something like 1500-2000) before you're better off trusting a hitter's actual L/R splits more than just generic L/R splits. For Morel specifically, his K/BB numbers were better against lefties, he just had a much higher BABIP and much higher HR/FB rate against righties. So even more than most guys feels like we should chalk that up to SSS.

 

I'd guess Morel plays everyday, and mostly just moves around defensively based on matchups. Then Wisdom, who ironically was split neutral in '21 before having big splits in '22, is the guy whose play time is mostly as the RH counterpart for Mervis and Bellinger.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[pitchcs]

Caught a Logenhagen chat:

 

Pedro Ramirez has outperformed all of the Cubs’ teen sensations through age 18 and by alot. What be his prospects?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: Cute little 2B who can hit, doesn't have Hernandez's upside but I like him more than the positionless thumpers from that group, like Ballesteros.

 

That was nice of him to answer in your lingo.

[PackLandVA]

Don’t believe I’ve ever heard a prospect, or MLBer for that matter, be referred to as cute in a pro analysis.

[Tim]

Don’t believe I’ve ever heard a prospect, or MLBer for that matter, be referred to as cute in a pro analysis.

Well, he is like 4'10"

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Cubswin11]

Where has Mallee been the last few years? Did he go to the Angels with Joe or Baltimore with Hyde? Or was he just reassigned in the org?

[craig]

Rojas: Hard for me to judge, but Rojas looks taller than the 5'10" he's listed at. Getting bigger is routine (no surprise, he looks stronger than the listed 150lb), but height growth is less routine.

 

Was he a dollar guy, or a low-price signing?

 

It would sure be nice if at some point the Cubs latin scouting-signing-development would pick up. After Gleybar and Eloy, there really hasn't been more production.

[Hrubes20]

Rojas: Hard for me to judge, but Rojas looks taller than the 5'10" he's listed at. Getting bigger is routine (no surprise, he looks stronger than the listed 150lb), but height growth is less routine.

 

Was he a dollar guy, or a low-price signing?

 

It would sure be nice if at some point the Cubs latin scouting-signing-development would pick up. After Gleybar and Eloy, there really hasn't been more production.

 

Rojas was a legit guy. I think he got a million.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Rojas: Hard for me to judge, but Rojas looks taller than the 5'10" he's listed at. Getting bigger is routine (no surprise, he looks stronger than the listed 150lb), but height growth is less routine.

 

Was he a dollar guy, or a low-price signing?

 

It would sure be nice if at some point the Cubs latin scouting-signing-development would pick up. After Gleybar and Eloy, there really hasn't been more production.

 

Rojas was a legit guy. I think he got a million.

 

Yep, $1 million. I’ve been updating Cubs IFA signings over the years here: viewtopic.php?f=3&t=308#p16166

[craig]

...

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/sports/baseball/iowa-cubs/2023/01/03/chicago-cubs-iowa-cubs-caleb-kilian-brennen-davis-alexander-canario-miguel-amaya-matt-mervis/69771872007/?src=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter....

 

Thanks for that link, Tom. The comments that both Amaya and Davis should be good-to-go for spring is encouraging.

 

It would be so great if Amaya plays healthy and establishes himself as a serious prospect.

[Bertz]

 

I'm a hopelessly optimistic fan but even I can't muster an iota of goodwill for Strumpf. He's not good. I'd probably need to go 50 or 60 deep on a top prospect list before I'd mention him. I mean his best case scenario is like Michael Chavis with a few more walks?

[craig]

CI had Banner's comments about Ed Howard:

 

“Ed ... I think he’s really extremely young, extremely athletic, and he’s used this time really wisely in terms of trying to improve his game in other ways.”

 

I wonder what "other ways" he's trying to improve his game?

[chopsx9]

 

——

 

 

Prior got votes for best amateur ever…The piece also sets up more Future by naming 2026 infielder Luis Hernandez in that group

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-front-office-selections-top-prospects?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

 

Javy got votes for best amateur ever as well!

 

How about best Minor Leaguer that never made it? I guess you'd need to determine what "never made it" means? Played in less than 100 career ML games?

[Bertz]

 

Cubs got tied for the 2nd most votes in "Most Underrated System" and got some down ballot votes for "Best Farm," "Best at Developing Pitchers" and Best at "Developing Hitters."

[Bertz]

[Bertz]

 

Setting aside the MLB specific stuff Bryan is talking about, I really love when he puts these together. Seeing it all in one place really reinforces the system's depth. 1B/DH is a bit of a problem south of Iowa (BJ Murray and.....?), and the Myrtle outfield is notably sad, but otherwise very real prospects pretty much everywhere you turn.

[Tim]

Yeah - we still need someone like Alcantara to break out in a big way to take the system to another level, but there are a whole bunch of guys in there that will see the majors.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

From Mooney:

 

Ed Howard is on target to leave Arizona at the end of spring training and start the season with a minor-league affiliate, according to a source familiar with his rehab program.

 

Don’t be stunned when that affiliate is Tennessee!

 

Would be nice if he could post a wRC+ higher than 83 at either A-ball affiliate before you rush him to AA.

[Cubswin11]

From Mooney:

 

Ed Howard is on target to leave Arizona at the end of spring training and start the season with a minor-league affiliate, according to a source familiar with his rehab program.

 

Don’t be stunned when that affiliate is Tennessee!

There’s no reason to start him at AA, he has so much more to prove and also coming back from a really bad injury he needs to be eased in from.

[Cubswin11]

There’s no reason to start him at AA, he has so much more to prove and also coming back from a really bad injury he needs to be eased in from.

 

I'll go the other way and say the only reason to send him back to the low minors is the injury. Whatever he has to prove isn't going to happen in High A

He’s proven nothing in A ball. Throw in he had a significant injury it may be wise to ease him back. Plus on top of the the injury he also hasn’t proven he’s worth a promotion and/or is really any good yet in A ball and an aggressive promotion doesn’t seem smart.

Edited February 3, 2023 by Cubswin11

[Tim]

There’s no reason to start him at AA, he has so much more to prove and also coming back from a really bad injury he needs to be eased in from.

 

I'll go the other way and say the only reason to send him back to the low minors is the injury. Whatever he has to prove isn't going to happen in High A

I don't think it's about "proving" anything. It's about what is best for his development. If they think he's ready to handle AA, they'll give him the assignment. If they think his very short exposure to pro pitching hasn't yet prepared him for AA, they'll put him in A+. It's not an insult. It's not a step back. It will be a hell of an accomplishment just to get back on the field after that injury.

[CubinNY]

There’s no reason to start him at AA, he has so much more to prove and also coming back from a really bad injury he needs to be eased in from.

 

I'll go the other way and say the only reason to send him back to the low minors is the injury. Whatever he has to prove isn't going to happen in High A

I don't think it's about "proving" anything. It's about what is best for his development. If they think he's ready to handle AA, they'll give him the assignment. If they think his very short exposure to pro pitching hasn't yet prepared him for AA, they'll put him in A+. It's not an insult. It's not a step back. It will be a hell of an accomplishment just to get back on the field after that injury.

Yeah. Everyone wants the local kid to make good. They can promote him to AA if he's tearing it up for the first couple of months. I'm excited to see him play. Last year we took a trip up to Michigan with the specific intent to watch him in SB. About a week before our trip he got injured.