Minor League Musings

[Jason Ross]

Per BA, Hernandez has spent a lot of time at 3b on backfields this ST.

Im not sure if theres a deeper reasoning behind it, but as Rojas appears to be hurt, and Hernandez has always had positive scotuing on his glove, it does raise some possible questions. Is this is just to create flexibility, whether they like Rojas more at 3b, or internally they're less jazzed about him at SS? I wont try to answer it or go crazy trying to answer it but something of an interesting note.

[JBears79]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Per BA, Hernandez has spent a lot of time at 3b on backfields this ST.

Im not sure if theres a deeper reasoning behind it, but as Rojas appears to be hurt, and Hernandez has always had positive scotuing on his glove, it does raise some possible questions. Is this is just to create flexibility, whether they like Rojas more at 3b, or internally they're less jazzed about him at SS? I wont try to answer it or go crazy trying to answer it but something of an interesting note.

I feel like the Cubs always like having their prospects play multiple positions in the minors. I feel like that was a Theo directive. I remember when Teho took over he mentioned in an interview once that he wanted guys to be able to play multiple positions.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

I feel like the Cubs always like having their prospects play multiple positions in the minors. I feel like that was a Theo directive. I remember when Teho took over he mentioned in an interview once that he wanted guys to be able to play multiple positions.

The Cubs will do that at times - though Hernandez has been pretty straight forward so far playing SS. He's logged just a single game at 3b, though has played some 2b. 3b is a new development for Hernandez. 

[Bertz]

I'd say it's most likely a sign that Rojas will head to SB rather than straight to Tenn.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This is on now: 

 

[Jason Ross]

26 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

This is on now: 

 

Will Sanders as Lance's prospect to watch is notable - I really think Lance is the tops when it comes to the pitching side of things. He does great work and has awesome insight into pitch movement and pitch mix stuff. 

[craig]

Sam Armstrong pitched 4 innings in Cubs ex game yesterday, 6K 1 walk 1 hit.  Probably facing all minor leaguers, so not sure it means much for big-league potential.  Do you guys think he has any big-league possibilities? 

I think it's possible? When a guy can command two pitches, fastball and slider, I think he's got a chance.  And I often tend to think that guys who can command their fastball, those are the guys most likely to be able to pitch-lab their way and invent something new that they need?  When guys are wild to start, they can pitch-lab their way to new pitch shapes and such, but they usually will be wild and inconsistent with new pitches, just like they are wild and inconsistent with original fastball.  But guys who can control two pitches, they can sometimes learn to develop, optimize and control a third pitch.  

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, craig said:

Sam Armstrong pitched 4 innings in Cubs ex game yesterday, 6K 1 walk 1 hit.  Probably facing all minor leaguers, so not sure it means much for big-league potential.  Do you guys think he has any big-league possibilities? 

I think it's possible? When a guy can command two pitches, fastball and slider, I think he's got a chance.  And I often tend to think that guys who can command their fastball, those are the guys most likely to be able to pitch-lab their way and invent something new that they need?  When guys are wild to start, they can pitch-lab their way to new pitch shapes and such, but they usually will be wild and inconsistent with new pitches, just like they are wild and inconsistent with original fastball.  But guys who can control two pitches, they can sometimes learn to develop, optimize and control a third pitch.  

It's not impossible, but is probably more improbable than other pitchers. Many times, pitchers like Sam Armstrong find initial success in lower levels, where I believe command and control can hide stuff deficiencies far more than at higher levels. There's a handful of reasons for that - younger, more aggressive hitters, hitters with less talent, etc, etc. But these pitchers tend to get exposed at higher levels as they lack stuff to get guys to swing and miss on. If you can't get guys to chase your pitches out of the zone, if you can't get them to swing and miss, it becomes very hard to consistently throw pitches on the shadow of the strike zone (the "heart" of the zone is the general middle where as the "shadow" are the fringes). MLB hitters, regardless of velocity, destroy "heart" pitches. It just takes one, and it becomes a numbers game. If hitters wont chase and expand, you have to throw more in the zone, and the more times you are in the zone, the more times you give yourself a chance to miss just enough to find that area.

Looking at Armstrong, you can find some cracks in the armor currently, as upon his promotion from South Bend, his K% dropped to the 18% range over his 50 innings in Tennessee. Comparing this to MLB K% averages; only 12 pitchers who logged 100 innings last year posted a <18% K and a just single one of those finished with an xFIP below 4.50. Continuing to look at that sample size of 12 pitchers, ten finished with an ERA over 4.75, with most of those ten breaking the five+ ERA mark. The reality is that a K% in that range at the highest level is untenable.  Armstrong isn't hitting that level of strikeouts currently two levels below and against far less than MLB hitters. It's not a great indicator of future success, even if his ERA, xFIP and the like look good.

If you want some positives, it's that Armstrong has worked hard on transforming his body from his college days, has thrown a good amount of ground balls (this is a way to help mitigate a poor strikeout rate) and has limited home runs. If Armstrong can continue to develop some secondaries and post a K% in the 20's, there's a route to being a bottom of the rotation, ground ball machine of a SP. It's why I say it's improbable and not impossible. My word of caution; most draft seasons the Cubs find a guy like Armstrong: a college pitcher (usually), who uses command and control to put up some fun early numbers in lower levels only to fall away when stuff becomes more important. So we'll see. I don't want to fully write him off because there's a chance, but his profile doesn't usually pan out well. 

[allen6510w]

Thanks for the insight.  Yes, his K/IP may be untenable (35 in 50 IP in AA versus 66 in 66 high-A IP).  However, he did lower his HR/9 (2/50 IP in AA versus 5 / 66 IP in high-A), lower his BAA (0.202 versus 0.221), lower his W/IP (14 in 50 AA IP versus 22 in 66 high-A IP), and increase his ratio of ground outs to air outs (1.24 in AA versus 0.84 in high-A) upon promotion to AA last year.   So I'm not too worried about his K/IP fall off.   Of course, I also recognize that few minor league pitchers grow up to be top or mid-level starters. 

 

[Jason Ross]

34 minutes ago, allen6510w said:

Thanks for the insight.  Yes, his K/IP may be untenable (35 in 50 IP in AA versus 66 in 66 high-A IP).  However, he did lower his HR/9 (2/50 IP in AA versus 5 / 66 IP in high-A), lower his BAA (0.202 versus 0.221), lower his W/IP (14 in 50 AA IP versus 22 in 66 high-A IP), and increase his ratio of ground outs to air outs (1.24 in AA versus 0.84 in high-A) upon promotion to AA last year.   So I'm not too worried about his K/IP fall off.   Of course, I also recognize that few minor league pitchers grow up to be top or mid-level starters. 

 

I'm going to do my best to not sound like a single-issue-voter here...but I would classify his K% issues as far more concerning than the slight positive bumps of the other things. For example, a small decrease in BA against may be a Sam Armstrong thing, but can also be explained by improved defense (the higher the level, usually, the higher the defensive ability). This also goes to WHIP, which, I'm pretty uninterested in, in general, when we speak of pitching as is (just feel it's a very outdated stat and we have better). I'd say that K% drop is more concerning especially with Armstrong's profile - in that he's a command/control/pitchability guy over someone who has projectable stuff. I really wish we had access to Statcast on him, because I think looking at things such as pitch location, pitch tracking, and things such as EV, xBA, etc would really help tell us more of the story here. There's still enough behind the veil that it may be a bit less of an issue than it may seem, so don't take this as like...gospel.

I also don't want to entire throw those things away, either - the improvement of ground balls over fly balls is a good thing, for example. I just think that Armstrong is the type who's capable of hiding his deficiencies at these levels behind a pitchability profile and if he can't improve that K%, he'll eventually hit a wall. And while all prospects have some deficiencies and issues, Armstrong probably doesn't offer the upside as a SP or a RP that those are enough to ignore. Like, sure Wiggins might not throw enough strikes, but there's an 8th inning profile there if he can't. If Armstrong can't strike out enough guys, he's probably topping out at org up/down. 

In the end, I'd hate to be giving off an impression or a suggestion that I'm giving up on him, or that development, progress, etc can't happen. I really like Zombro and he can bring a lot to the table and help someone like Armstrong, for sure. There's a lot of things to like there! But he's got a bit of a concerning profile, and while he's certainly not the bevy of previous arms in a similar mold, they're cautionary tales on pitchers who follow this general build. For his sake, the Cubs, sake and everyone involved, Armstrong taking the next step and finding enough to keep his K% and whiff% into acceptable rates moving forward would be a win.

[Bertz]

Yeah Armstrong looks pretty middle reliever-y IMO.

In the pitch design era never write a guy off totally, but I'd guess he'll need the extra juice from working shorter stints to be a thing at the MLB level.  That said an MLB career does look pretty likely.

[Jason Ross]

Yeah, I'd say as of now, Armstrong in a 6th/7th inning role feels like a good outcome for him. You can likely get his K% to play up a bit, add in a penchant for ground balls and there's a role in a BP for a guy like that. It helps hide the issues he'd see more as a starter. And hell, if the outcome for a 13th round pick out of Old Dominion is "org up/down lower-leverage reliever" or even "decent middle reliever" then it's a pretty big scouting win.

[CubinNY]

13 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

This is on now: 

 

We now know who Tom is in real life. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Tom he's turning 25 this year, will be reaching AA for the first time, his only offensive successes have come in repeating *both* A ball levels, and even when he does hit it has not shown improvement in the primary problem of Ks/contact. His defense is statistically unremarkable and doesn't have an elite reputation either.  If you want to hold a candle for him that's great, the bar is lower for catchers and I hope he makes 10 all star teams as a Cub.  But please, spare us the 'you only don't see him as a good prospect because the Man spoon feeds you your opinions', it's embarrassing.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Michael Busch was a 26 YO 1B/DH prospect like 20 minutes ago 

When Busch was the age Hearn was last year he put up a 134+ wRC+ in AA in his first full pro season, come on man.

[imb]

52 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Michael Busch was a 26 YO 1B/DH prospect like 20 minutes ago 

 

Spoiler

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Edited March 27, 2025 by imb
because i can

[imb]

21 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

a bat first college drafted 1B  prospect - first round pick too - should be able to put up an interesting offensive line in AA at 23

thats great, let us know when Hearn accomplishes even that minor feat!

[Transmogrified Tiger]

42 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

…as a 1B prospect. Literally that wRC+ is the only reason he even had a shot to be a 26 YO prospect, and it would have been an unsuccessful go without the monster season he had at 25 

I was most on Busch here too last year, even as a straight 1B prospect none of that 3B nonsense

Edit: Also 2022 was Busch’s third season in the Dodgers org…Circumstance made that the “first pro season” but a bat first college drafted 1B  prospect - first round pick too - should be able to put up an interesting offensive line in AA at 23

Yes, a first round pick who immediately hits in his first true pro season is going to be a more noteworthy prospect than someone who needed to repeat both A ball levels in order to be the 8th best hitting catcher in the midwest league at 24.  This is just sad, you can simply like Ethan Hearn!  Everyone has their guys they like more than the consensus.  It does not have to be a conspiracy that others are not on the bandwagon with you.

[imb]

7 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Now can I be wrong? Sure, but it ain’t because he didn’t hit like a 1B right out of the pandemic 

Let me correct you here. It’s actually because he hasn’t hit at all yet. Once. 

[imb]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Fine, have some attention…It’s nigh impossible to take your opinions seriously or even believe you offer one in any kind of good faith. True even when just piggybacking/parroting others while out for a troll, which is the case here 

sorry but no. im right and you're wrong. but keep trying youre gonna get one one day. Any Gallardo highlights to show us

[Bobson Dugnutt]

I can’t believe we’re on year seven of Ethan Hearn discourse

[imb]

hmmm hmm hmm. ill tell ya tom, everyone loves when you say the stupidest thing anyone has ever heard on here 5 times a day then resort to these weird crashouts every time someone disagrees. It's going great for you!

[imb]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m also flattered that you are more capable of naming one prospect I was “wrong” abt (bc - famously - an elbow injury is a career killer we all know this) than understanding basic economics lol

Edit: My guy go one post back lol…such a clownshow and for what 

so no on gallardo then, noted. looking forward to the game tonight, cant wait to see ed howard in the middle infield.

[imb]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I can’t imagine what its like to be fully grown like this and infinitely more capable of listing these names than whining with any competence abt things a child can explain 

is that a no on howard too? oh well, another 20 years of posting, youll probably get one