Minor League Musings

[Bertz]

Also even if you could say the team hasn't been super gung ho in chasing velocity (like 1908 says I don't think that'sfair), they've certainly been very big on coaxing additional velo out of guys in hand.  Like Wicks, Assad, and Wesneski are all guys who have stepped forward in the last two years due in part to velo increases.  Hell it hasn't worked clearly but even Hendricks has his best velo since 2016 right now.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

They also very possibly ruined Kilian by upping his velo significantly

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

They also very possibly ruined Kilian by upping his velo significantly

I'll throw a bit of pushback here. My read on the Kilian situation is this: He was hitting as high as 97mph pre-trade with the Giants. They did look to get more velocity out of him with the Cubs, but I think the real death knell for him was the inability to create any sort of whiff. For all of the worries on Jordan Wicks' whiff rate last year, Killian's was under 12 at the MLB level and I remember watching his games with the Giants Double-A system and thinking "those pitches he's getting whiffs on aren't going to work at higher levels". It never got better. He lived in the zone a ton and couldn't get guys to miss his stuff. Where I think he truly died is forcing the spike curve to be a thing (which it never was) and lost mechanics. I'm not sure the velo spike helped or hurt, but I do think he was a troubled prospect regardless, so while I won't say it helped/hurt whatever...I will say in the end, I don't think it mattered much. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'll throw a bit of pushback here. My read on the Kilian situation is this: He was hitting as high as 97mph pre-trade with the Giants. They did look to get more velocity out of him with the Cubs, but I think the real death knell for him was the inability to create any sort of whiff. For all of the worries on Jordan Wicks' whiff rate last year, Killian's was under 12 at the MLB level and I remember watching his games with the Giants Double-A system and thinking "those pitches he's getting whiffs on aren't going to work at higher levels". It never got better. He lived in the zone a ton and couldn't get guys to miss his stuff. Where I think he truly died is forcing the spike curve to be a thing (which it never was) and lost mechanics. I'm not sure the velo spike helped or hurt, but I do think he was a troubled prospect regardless, so while I won't say it helped/hurt whatever...I will say in the end, I don't think it mattered much. 

I'm not going to claim encyclopedic memory of the before/after, so maybe I'm mistaken. But at least in terms of his sitting velo, I think by 2022 it was several ticks higher than pre-trade.  That's consistent with the spike in walk rate, presumably because he couldn't command it.  Not that increasing whiff wasn't a worthy or even necessary goal, but I also think there's a universe where Kilian is a more viable big league prospect because they prioritized his fastball command(at the time his carrying trait) and tinkered with his off speeds more in search of that improved swing and miss.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'd be very reticent to assume measurement error.  I think Keegan Thompson's the only one who's velo was anomalously low at Iowa.  Everyone else even if they've thrown a little harder in MLB than they did in AAA you'd probably chalk it up to weather or role.  Like Porter Hodge, the newest callup, was 95.7 his first outing in MLB and 95.6 his last outing at Iowa.

I think Horton's some combination of getting stretched out (he's sitting 95 early in games and fading deeper) and possibly spin/movement changes.  I believe he previously had a carrying fastball and at Iowa it's switched to a cut-ride, maybe that impacts his raw velo.

Horton is also starting every fifth day for the first time in his life. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Missed this from earlier in the week

[CubinNY]

12 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Missed this from earlier in the week

Do we know why?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Nazier Mulé and Yenrri Rojas to Myrtle Beach

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Marlins promoted Thomas White to High A recently, 19 YO’s crushing it. Exceptional upside here

Noble Meyer was promoted too.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Iowa is the 9th most hitter-friendly AAA park. Tennessee is middle of the pack in AA at 14th most hitter-friendly. South Bend is the 6th most hitter-friendly high-A park. And unsurprisingly, Myrtle Beach is the 2nd most pitcher-friendly low-A park.

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Iowa is the 9th most hitter-friendly AAA park. Tennessee is middle of the pack in AA at 14th most hitter-friendly. South Bend is the 6th most hitter-friendly high-A park. And unsurprisingly, Myrtle Beach is the 2nd most pitcher-friendly low-A park.

I know this used to be the case, and I believe it still is, that Fangraphs' wRC+ numbers do not take these park factors into account for the minor leagues.  They do take league and level into account, but not specific park.  

So like Cristian Hernandez's 141 wRC+ is that much more impressive, while on the flip you might ding all those Iowa outfielders a little bit.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

16 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I know this used to be the case, and I believe it still is, that Fangraphs' wRC+ numbers do not take these park factors into account for the minor leagues.  They do take league and level into account, but not specific park.  

So like Cristian Hernandez's 141 wRC+ is that much more impressive, while on the flip you might ding all those Iowa outfielders a little bit.

The one that surprised me is South Bend. Guess once we you get out of the cold April, the environment is a lot more conducive to hitting.

[CubinNY]

15 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Noble Meyer was promoted too.

How is it that the Marlins always seem to find these guys? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

How is it that the Marlins always seem to find these guys? 

Meyer went 10th overall, 3 picks before the Cubs took Shaw.  White went 35th and was given the 15th highest bonus.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That duo is nuts. Could argue either of those guys or Noah Schultz as having the highest SP ceilings in the minors, and there’s tons of talent at the various levels (Dollander, Horton, Dana, Tink Hence, Baumeister, Lara, Q. Matthews, J. Martinez, Rocker, Petty, Lizarraga etc etc)

I still they took White last year, dude’s a whale. Maybe I just wish the Cubs had any personality or chutzpah beyond being a good, ultra risk adverse business for the sake of business 

All well and good but the Marlins are good at pitcher development and credit to them for leaning into it. They really whiffed on Khalil Watson and Jacob Berry the years before.

The Cubs are risk adverse but have had success with Shaw, Horton and Wicks and didn't have success with the far riskier Ed Howard. It's not sexy but good teams know what they're good at and continue to go back to that well.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

I am not as high on either guy as some others are, but really nice to have something to look at on the hitting front at MB besides Cristian and Rosario.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Sounds like CEJ and Ethan Roberts have opt outs for tomorrow.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Phew. Was worried the Cubs would screw this no-brainer up:

 

[jumbo]

21 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Phew. Was worried the Cubs would screw this no-brainer up:

Who did we trade to get Cuas? Nelson Valequez?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

22 minutes ago, jumbo said:

Who did we trade to get Cuas? Nelson Valequez?

Yes.

[Bertz]

*sigh* Sounds like Brennen's dead again

 

 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

*sigh* Sounds like Brennen's dead again

 

 

horsefeathers

[We Got The Whole 9]

That's gotta be so depressing