Minor League Musings

[craig]

Tom, has Kellogg always been something of a flyball guy?

 

Do you think that if they moved him to relief, eventually, that he might be able to tick it up a little and have Travis Wood-level velocity?

 

Does his stuff/arm-slot give him any LOOGY potential, or not much for splits?

[sneakypower]

it dawned on me the perfect Almora comp:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12434&position=OF

[Tim]

it dawned on me the perfect Almora comp:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12434&position=OF

yeah, that probably works.

[sneakypower]

also, just four guys have a higher OBP than Willson Contreras in the PCL: three are 27 or older, and the other plays home games in Albuquerque (where he has a .606 OBP, lol)

 

i think he's a top-20 prospect, currently

[Ding Dong Johnson]

and Vogelbach is not far behind him

[Transmogrified Tiger]

it dawned on me the perfect Almora comp:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12434&position=OF

 

I (kinda) said this 5 pages ago!

 

More seriously, that's the mental model I've had for Almora this calendar year, which really is a particularly great fit given the composition of the rest of the OF right now.

[sneakypower]

At the risk of this being misconstrued into "trade then now, they suck and are super duper busts that I personally hate" - what would the reaction be like if Almora and Contreras were traded in the same deal for pitching? How would the press react?

did you not know that we have the best rotation in baseball right now, in what world does this make any sense

 

it dawned on me the perfect Almora comp:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12434&position=OF

 

I (kinda) said this 5 pages ago!

http://gif-finder.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Anchorman-2-The-Legend-Continue-Ron-Burgundy-Will-Ferrell-Sorry-Gif.gif

[Hairyducked Idiot]

and Vogelbach is not far behind him

 

Yes, he is. He's got a .421 BABIP and the PCL is making it look like he has found his power because that is what the PCL does.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

and Vogelbach is not far behind him

 

Yes, he is. He's got a .421 BABIP and the PCL is making it look like he has found his power because that is what the PCL does.

ok? it's still 436 to 430; I'm not doing a full scouting report here

[sneakypower]

did you not know that we have the best rotation in baseball right now, in what world does this make any sense

 

The real one where they have two SPs under contract past 2017? When did the Cubs at least hypothetically trading for a SP (and/or pitching in general) become a strange thing to mention?

it's strange to mention trading high-floor MLB-ready players at known positions of need next year for a possible position of need two years from now, which has been repeatedly addressed with affordable short-term deals to great effect

[David]

it's strange to mention trading high-floor MLB-ready players at known positions of need next year for a possible position of need two years from now, which has been repeatedly addressed with affordable 2-year deals to great effect

 

Why is that strange? Isn't that exactly what other teams would want in return for the stuff the Cubs would want?

 

"Repeatedly addressed with affordable 2 year deals" has resulted in a two winning seasons (including this one) so far this decade. As much as I think it would be neato and efficient to build a dynasty on the backs of the Jason Hammels, Lackeys, and Feldmans of the baseball world, it's probably not the most sustainable strategy in many ways.

 

holy horsefeathering horsefeathers this is more kyle than anything kyle has ever said

[CubsWin]

 

Why is that strange? Isn't that exactly what other teams would want in return for the stuff the Cubs would want?

 

"Repeatedly addressed with affordable 2 year deals" has resulted in a two winning seasons (including this one) so far this decade. As much as I think it would be neato and efficient to build a dynasty on the backs of the Jason Hammels, Lackeys, and Feldmans of the baseball world, it's probably not the most sustainable strategy in many ways.

You do realize the Cubs either sucked or were rebuilding for the first 4 years of of this decade, right?

 

And no one is talking about the Cubs building a dynasty around Hammel or Lackey. They're talking about the possibility of a dynasty around good, young, controllable talent like Bryant, Russell, Rizzo, Baez and others. You know like Contreras and Almora.

 

I don't think anyone is against trading for a good, young controllable pitcher. Maybe just not trading the two prospects who will be filling the roster spots opening up next season.

 

If the Cubs were to trade some from the group of Torres, Happ, Jimenez, Underwood, Edwards, McKinney, Candelario, etc., I think that wouldn't be seen as strange at all.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Depending on the return, I wouldn't be overly upset if Almora were traded for pitching. I would hope the front office can avoid including him in any deals, but if they can get a young, talented pitcher with a few years of control, fine. I really, really don't want them trading Contreras. His timeline fits in so nicely with the roster spots opening up at catcher over the next two offseasons.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

and Vogelbach is not far behind him

 

Yes, he is. He's got a .421 BABIP and the PCL is making it look like he has found his power because that is what the PCL does.

ok? it's still 436 to 430; I'm not doing a full scouting report here

 

My bad, I misunderstood. I thought you meant not far behind him in the top 20.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

*Calls me out for trying to peg him as an anti-Contreras guys*

 

*Wants to trade Contreras the next day*

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Of all the things to criticize Tom for, you guys are going after him for thinking Edwards is a good relief arm and for talking about trading prospects for a starting pitcher. Guy can't catch a break.

[Sammy Sofa]

You do realize this just makes you the Tommy La Stella of NSBB, right?

 

And no, no amount of high falutin' statistical chicanery will ever make that a good thing.

[Sammy Sofa]

There's an inherent bitterness to you re-spawing time and time again yet da Bum is cursed to wander the wastes for all time.

[Sammy Sofa]

Hey, I don't want any of you goofy bastards banned.

[imb]

 

Yes, he is. He's got a .421 BABIP and the PCL is making it look like he has found his power because that is what the PCL does.

ok? it's still 436 to 430; I'm not doing a full scouting report here

 

My bad, I misunderstood. I thought you meant not far behind him in the top 20.

 

lmao dumbass

[CubsWin]

You do realize the Cubs either sucked or were rebuilding for the first 4 years of of this decade, right?

 

And no one is talking about the Cubs building a dynasty around Hammel or Lackey. They're talking about the possibility of a dynasty around good, young, controllable talent like Bryant, Russell, Rizzo, Baez and others. You know like Contreras and Almora.

 

I don't think anyone is against trading for a good, young controllable pitcher. Maybe just not trading the two prospects who will be filling the roster spots opening up next season.

 

If the Cubs were to trade some from the group of Torres, Happ, Jimenez, Underwood, Edwards, McKinney, Candelario, etc., I think that wouldn't be seen as strange at all.

 

Your generosity knows no bounds They can basically pick from an A ball SS, Edwards (who unlike the other two has no shot at a 2017 roster spot already slated for him, I assume?), and then anyone under performing in the system. Maybe throw in Vogelbach to really really sweeten the pot?

 

You guys do understand that the quality of the 2 year contract FA pitcher will go down as successes pile up? That their prices will go up? Feldman got a 3 year deal immediately after 2013 and he wasn't even all that good after the Cubs traded him. It is not a sustainable model for building a starting pitching rotation. Currently the best FA SP available after the 2017 season is the Cubs' own FA in Arrieta. I don't think people are so much against trading for a young, controllable pitcher - another key should be that he is a very good SP - so much as some underestimate what it will cost.

 

I also don't get why some insist on marrying the org to Almora. A 7-9 of Montero-Almora-P or Montero-P-Almora is not something to look forward to. That instantly makes the 2017 team worse than they were in 2016.

I think you missed most of the point of my post in defense of your original statement.

 

I'm all for trading for a mid-20s MOR starter with upside. I just don't see the need to limit the trade pieces to the two prospects the Cubs have immediate need of next season. Not advocating for more Hammel or Feldman signings.

 

The Cubs will have an opening for a guy like Edwards, but relievers are A LOT easier to find than CFers and catchers. Thus my including him in a potential deal. You think he has value, right?

 

If you think Torres and Happ don't interest other organizations, that's fine. I disagree.

 

If you're concerned that the 2017 team might not be as good as this year's team, you should be. This year's team as so far been on an incredible pace and is projected by many to be the best team in baseball. They will likely lose Fowler. Almora in his rookie season will certainly be worse offensively. Will they be so much worse as to not make the playoffs and be a strong contender to go deep into them? I doubt it.

 

We are certainly able to see this topic differently. There's a lot of subjectivity involved, especially in how we value and project players.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Oh no, Albert Almora might be our 8th or 9th hitter next year, on a platoon/part-time basis. However will our, like, six six-win players hitting above him be able to survive!?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Oh no, Albert Almora might be our 8th or 9th hitter next year, on a platoon/part-time basis. However will our, like, six six-win players hitting above him be able to survive!?

 

I have no idea if it's the best, but I want to see an outfield of Heyward/Almora/some other good defender at some point have an awesome game in a big outfield just breaking hearts.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Oh no, Albert Almora might be our 8th or 9th hitter next year, on a platoon/part-time basis. However will our, like, six six-win players hitting above him be able to survive!?

 

I have no idea if it's the best, but I want to see an outfield of Heyward/Almora/some other good defender at some point have an awesome game in a big outfield just breaking hearts.

 

Kris Bryant? There's limited info, but he's kinda been awesome out there and he is a badass athletic specimen, so it wouldn't surprise me if he is just really good out there.

 

And I want to see Almora at some point this year just to get some kind of data and a better look at him in the outfield. If he's not really good out there with the glove, then I agree with Tom, he has no spot on this team. But, if he could be like, say, Kevin Pillar, as mentioned above -- even if only as a cheap, imitation-brand -- then, hell yeah, I'll take that guy on a rookie contract.

[David]

Oh no, Albert Almora might be our 8th or 9th hitter next year, on a platoon/part-time basis. However will our, like, six six-win players hitting above him be able to survive!?

 

I have no idea if it's the best, but I want to see an outfield of Heyward/Almora/some other good defender at some point have an awesome game in a big outfield just breaking hearts.

 

maybe we'll see fowler/almora/heyward in september

 

though i think almora/fowler/heyward would be more likely