Minor League Musings

Transmogrified Tiger · February 14, 2016

On the other hand, he'll be what, 21+ months from surgery on Opening Day? I won't be upset if he's not at South Bend to start the year, but I don't think it's imperative he avoids early season MWL weather either.

David · February 15, 2016

ZiPS top 100 vs. Law's.

ZiPS is pretty high on Almora

ZiPS rank Player Pos. Team Law Rank

1 Corey Seager SS Los Angeles Dodgers 1

2 Byron Buxton CF Minnesota Twins 2

3 J.P. Crawford SS Philadelphia Phillies 4

4 Orlando Arcia SS Milwaukee Brewers 10

5 Dansby Swanson SS Atlanta Braves 13

6 Manuel Margot CF San Diego Padres 25

7 A.J. Reed 1B Houston Astros 44

8 Nomar Mazara RF Texas Rangers 9

9 Julio Urias LHP Los Angeles Dodgers 5

10 Steven Matz LHP New York Mets 37

11 Trea Turner SS Washington Nationals 28

12 Lucas Giolito RHP Washington Nationals 3

13 Alex Verdugo CF Los Angeles Dodgers 51

14 Tyler Glasnow RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 6

15 Ozhaino Albies SS Atlanta Braves 20

16 Brett Phillips CF Milwaukee Brewers 46

17 Alex Reyes RHP St. Louis Cardinals 8

18 Joey Gallo 3B Texas Rangers 12

19 Rafael Devers 3B Boston Red Sox 7

20 Javier Guerra SS San Diego Padres 34

21 Jeff Hoffman RHP Colorado Rockies 90

22 Jose Berrios RHP Minnesota Twins 26

23 Austin Meadows CF Pittsburgh Pirates 16

24 Ryan McMahon 3B Colorado Rockies 62

25 Sean Newcomb LHP Atlanta Braves 30

26 Albert Almora CF Chicago Cubs 88

26 Anthony Alford CF Toronto Blue Jays 52

28 Alex Bregman SS Houston Astros 19

29 Jose de Leon RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 60

30 Jorge Polanco SS Minnesota Twins 66

31 Bobby Bradley 1B Cleveland Indians 93

32 Jose Peraza 2B Cincinnati Reds >100

33 Jonathan Gray RHP Colorado Rockies >100

34 Andrew Benintendi CF Boston Red Sox 18

35 Tim Anderson SS Chicago White Sox 45

36 Aaron Blair RHP Atlanta Braves 39

37 Raimel Tapia CF Colorado Rockies 78

38 Alen Hanson 2B Pittsburgh Pirates >100

39 Sean Manaea LHP Oakland Athletics 59

40 Daniel Robertson SS Tampa Bay Rays 85

41 Blake Snell LHP Tampa Bay Rays 14

42 Willson Contreras C Chicago Cubs 27

43 Cody Reed LHP Cincinnati Reds 54

44 Jesse Winker LF Cincinnati Reds 41

45 Gleyber Torres SS Chicago Cubs 15

46 Bradley Zimmer CF Cleveland Indians 21

47 Lewis Brinson CF Texas Rangers 32

48 Dominic Smith 1B New York Mets 29

49 Austin Barnes C Los Angeles Dodgers >100

50 Boog Powell CF Seattle Mariners >100

51 Brendan Rodgers SS Colorado Rockies 11

52 Kevin Newman SS Pittsburgh Pirates 23

53 Michael Fulmer RHP Detroit Tigers 48

54 Braden Shipley RHP Arizona Cardinals 24

55 Brandon Drury 3B Arizona Cardinals >100

56 Billy McKinney RF Chicago Cubs 69

57 David Dahl CF Colorado Rockies 58

58 Brian Johnson LHP Boston Red Sox >100

59 Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay Rays 64

60 Renato Nunez 3B Oakland Athletics >100

61 Franklin Barreto SS Oakland Athletics 22

62 Ian Happ CF Chicago Cubs 47

63 Yoan Moncada 2B Boston Red Sox 17

64 Jomar Reyes 3B Baltimore Orioles >100

65 Christian Arroyo SS San Francisco Giants 65

66 A.J. Cole RHP Washington Nationals >100

67 Victor Robles CF Washington Nationals 49

68 Jack Flaherty RHP St. Louis Cardinals 83

69 Reynaldo Lopez RHP Washington Nationals >100

70 Jake Thompson RHP Philadelphia Phillies 63

71 Marco Gonzales LHP St. Louis Cardinals 76

72 Jake Bauers 1B Tampa Bay Rays >100

73 Dixon Machado SS Detroit Tigers >100

74 Kevin Ziomek LHP Detroit Tigers >100

75 Gary Sanchez C New York Yankees 57

76 Nick Williams CF Philadelphia Phillies 74

77 Clint Frazier CF Cleveland Indians 72

78 Matt Chapman 3B Oakland Athletics >100

79 Chance Sisco C Baltimore Orioles 81

80 Matt Olson 1B Oakland Athletics >100

81 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh Pirates >100

82 Derek Fisher CF Houston Astros >100

83 Richard Urena SS Toronto Blue Jays >100

84 Aaron Judge RF New York Yankees 36

85 Stone Garrett CF Miami Marlins >100

86 Trent Clark CF Milwaukee Brewers 70

87 Colin Moran 3B Houston Astros >100

88 Richie Martin SS Oakland Athletics >100

89 Harold Ramirez RF Pittsburgh Pirates >100

90 Willy Adames SS Tampa Bay Rays >100

91 Max Kepler RF Minnesota Twins 33

92 Kyle Tucker RF Houston Astros 67

93 Sam Travis 1B Boston Red Sox >100

94 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays 35

95 Amed Rosario SS New York Mets 42

96 Luis Ortiz RHP Texas Rangers 79

97 Luke Jackson RHP Texas Rangers >100

98 Dillon Overton LHP Oakland Athletics >100

99 Brandon Nimmo CF New York Mets >100

100 Wilmer Difo SS Washington Nationals >100

mul21 · February 15, 2016

ZiPS top 100 vs. Law's.

ZiPS is pretty high on Almora

ZiPS rank Player Pos. Team Law Rank
1 Corey Seager SS Los Angeles Dodgers 1
2 Byron Buxton CF Minnesota Twins 2
3 J.P. Crawford SS Philadelphia Phillies 4
4 Orlando Arcia SS Milwaukee Brewers 10
5 Dansby Swanson SS Atlanta Braves 13
6 Manuel Margot CF San Diego Padres 25
7 A.J. Reed 1B Houston Astros 44
8 Nomar Mazara RF Texas Rangers 9
9 Julio Urias LHP Los Angeles Dodgers 5
10 Steven Matz LHP New York Mets 37
11 Trea Turner SS Washington Nationals 28
12 Lucas Giolito RHP Washington Nationals 3
13 Alex Verdugo CF Los Angeles Dodgers 51
14 Tyler Glasnow RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 6
15 Ozhaino Albies SS Atlanta Braves 20
16 Brett Phillips CF Milwaukee Brewers 46
17 Alex Reyes RHP St. Louis Cardinals 8
18 Joey Gallo 3B Texas Rangers 12
19 Rafael Devers 3B Boston Red Sox 7
20 Javier Guerra SS San Diego Padres 34
21 Jeff Hoffman RHP Colorado Rockies 90
22 Jose Berrios RHP Minnesota Twins 26
23 Austin Meadows CF Pittsburgh Pirates 16
24 Ryan McMahon 3B Colorado Rockies 62
25 Sean Newcomb LHP Atlanta Braves 30
26 Albert Almora CF Chicago Cubs 88
26 Anthony Alford CF Toronto Blue Jays 52
28 Alex Bregman SS Houston Astros 19
29 Jose de Leon RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 60
30 Jorge Polanco SS Minnesota Twins 66
31 Bobby Bradley 1B Cleveland Indians 93
32 Jose Peraza 2B Cincinnati Reds >100
33 Jonathan Gray RHP Colorado Rockies >100
34 Andrew Benintendi CF Boston Red Sox 18
35 Tim Anderson SS Chicago White Sox 45
36 Aaron Blair RHP Atlanta Braves 39
37 Raimel Tapia CF Colorado Rockies 78
38 Alen Hanson 2B Pittsburgh Pirates >100
39 Sean Manaea LHP Oakland Athletics 59
40 Daniel Robertson SS Tampa Bay Rays 85
41 Blake Snell LHP Tampa Bay Rays 14
42 Willson Contreras C Chicago Cubs 27
43 Cody Reed LHP Cincinnati Reds 54
44 Jesse Winker LF Cincinnati Reds 41
45 Gleyber Torres SS Chicago Cubs 15
46 Bradley Zimmer CF Cleveland Indians 21
47 Lewis Brinson CF Texas Rangers 32
48 Dominic Smith 1B New York Mets 29
49 Austin Barnes C Los Angeles Dodgers >100
50 Boog Powell CF Seattle Mariners >100
51 Brendan Rodgers SS Colorado Rockies 11
52 Kevin Newman SS Pittsburgh Pirates 23
53 Michael Fulmer RHP Detroit Tigers 48
54 Braden Shipley RHP Arizona Cardinals 24
55 Brandon Drury 3B Arizona Cardinals >100
56 Billy McKinney RF Chicago Cubs 69
57 David Dahl CF Colorado Rockies 58
58 Brian Johnson LHP Boston Red Sox >100
59 Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay Rays 64
60 Renato Nunez 3B Oakland Athletics >100
61 Franklin Barreto SS Oakland Athletics 22
62 Ian Happ CF Chicago Cubs 47
63 Yoan Moncada 2B Boston Red Sox 17
64 Jomar Reyes 3B Baltimore Orioles >100
65 Christian Arroyo SS San Francisco Giants 65
66 A.J. Cole RHP Washington Nationals >100
67 Victor Robles CF Washington Nationals 49
68 Jack Flaherty RHP St. Louis Cardinals 83
69 Reynaldo Lopez RHP Washington Nationals >100
70 Jake Thompson RHP Philadelphia Phillies 63
71 Marco Gonzales LHP St. Louis Cardinals 76
72 Jake Bauers 1B Tampa Bay Rays >100
73 Dixon Machado SS Detroit Tigers >100
74 Kevin Ziomek LHP Detroit Tigers >100
75 Gary Sanchez C New York Yankees 57
76 Nick Williams CF Philadelphia Phillies 74
77 Clint Frazier CF Cleveland Indians 72
78 Matt Chapman 3B Oakland Athletics >100
79 Chance Sisco C Baltimore Orioles 81
80 Matt Olson 1B Oakland Athletics >100
81 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh Pirates >100
82 Derek Fisher CF Houston Astros >100
83 Richard Urena SS Toronto Blue Jays >100
84 Aaron Judge RF New York Yankees 36
85 Stone Garrett CF Miami Marlins >100
86 Trent Clark CF Milwaukee Brewers 70
87 Colin Moran 3B Houston Astros >100
88 Richie Martin SS Oakland Athletics >100
89 Harold Ramirez RF Pittsburgh Pirates >100
90 Willy Adames SS Tampa Bay Rays >100
91 Max Kepler RF Minnesota Twins 33
92 Kyle Tucker RF Houston Astros 67
93 Sam Travis 1B Boston Red Sox >100
94 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays 35
95 Amed Rosario SS New York Mets 42
96 Luis Ortiz RHP Texas Rangers 79
97 Luke Jackson RHP Texas Rangers >100
98 Dillon Overton LHP Oakland Athletics >100
99 Brandon Nimmo CF New York Mets >100
100 Wilmer Difo SS Washington Nationals >100

Maybe your robot eyes automatically sort that, but add some code to that horsefeathers so it's readable.

David · February 15, 2016

ZiPS top 100 vs. Law's.

ZiPS is pretty high on Almora

ZiPS rank Player Pos. Team Law Rank
1 Corey Seager SS Los Angeles Dodgers 1
2 Byron Buxton CF Minnesota Twins 2
3 J.P. Crawford SS Philadelphia Phillies 4
4 Orlando Arcia SS Milwaukee Brewers 10
5 Dansby Swanson SS Atlanta Braves 13
6 Manuel Margot CF San Diego Padres 25
7 A.J. Reed 1B Houston Astros 44
8 Nomar Mazara RF Texas Rangers 9
9 Julio Urias LHP Los Angeles Dodgers 5
10 Steven Matz LHP New York Mets 37
11 Trea Turner SS Washington Nationals 28
12 Lucas Giolito RHP Washington Nationals 3
13 Alex Verdugo CF Los Angeles Dodgers 51
14 Tyler Glasnow RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 6
15 Ozhaino Albies SS Atlanta Braves 20
16 Brett Phillips CF Milwaukee Brewers 46
17 Alex Reyes RHP St. Louis Cardinals 8
18 Joey Gallo 3B Texas Rangers 12
19 Rafael Devers 3B Boston Red Sox 7
20 Javier Guerra SS San Diego Padres 34
21 Jeff Hoffman RHP Colorado Rockies 90
22 Jose Berrios RHP Minnesota Twins 26
23 Austin Meadows CF Pittsburgh Pirates 16
24 Ryan McMahon 3B Colorado Rockies 62
25 Sean Newcomb LHP Atlanta Braves 30
26 Albert Almora CF Chicago Cubs 88
26 Anthony Alford CF Toronto Blue Jays 52
28 Alex Bregman SS Houston Astros 19
29 Jose de Leon RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 60
30 Jorge Polanco SS Minnesota Twins 66
31 Bobby Bradley 1B Cleveland Indians 93
32 Jose Peraza 2B Cincinnati Reds >100
33 Jonathan Gray RHP Colorado Rockies >100
34 Andrew Benintendi CF Boston Red Sox 18
35 Tim Anderson SS Chicago White Sox 45
36 Aaron Blair RHP Atlanta Braves 39
37 Raimel Tapia CF Colorado Rockies 78
38 Alen Hanson 2B Pittsburgh Pirates >100
39 Sean Manaea LHP Oakland Athletics 59
40 Daniel Robertson SS Tampa Bay Rays 85
41 Blake Snell LHP Tampa Bay Rays 14
42 Willson Contreras C Chicago Cubs 27
43 Cody Reed LHP Cincinnati Reds 54
44 Jesse Winker LF Cincinnati Reds 41
45 Gleyber Torres SS Chicago Cubs 15
46 Bradley Zimmer CF Cleveland Indians 21
47 Lewis Brinson CF Texas Rangers 32
48 Dominic Smith 1B New York Mets 29
49 Austin Barnes C Los Angeles Dodgers >100
50 Boog Powell CF Seattle Mariners >100
51 Brendan Rodgers SS Colorado Rockies 11
52 Kevin Newman SS Pittsburgh Pirates 23
53 Michael Fulmer RHP Detroit Tigers 48
54 Braden Shipley RHP Arizona Cardinals 24
55 Brandon Drury 3B Arizona Cardinals >100
56 Billy McKinney RF Chicago Cubs 69
57 David Dahl CF Colorado Rockies 58
58 Brian Johnson LHP Boston Red Sox >100
59 Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay Rays 64
60 Renato Nunez 3B Oakland Athletics >100
61 Franklin Barreto SS Oakland Athletics 22
62 Ian Happ CF Chicago Cubs 47
63 Yoan Moncada 2B Boston Red Sox 17
64 Jomar Reyes 3B Baltimore Orioles >100
65 Christian Arroyo SS San Francisco Giants 65
66 A.J. Cole RHP Washington Nationals >100
67 Victor Robles CF Washington Nationals 49
68 Jack Flaherty RHP St. Louis Cardinals 83
69 Reynaldo Lopez RHP Washington Nationals >100
70 Jake Thompson RHP Philadelphia Phillies 63
71 Marco Gonzales LHP St. Louis Cardinals 76
72 Jake Bauers 1B Tampa Bay Rays >100
73 Dixon Machado SS Detroit Tigers >100
74 Kevin Ziomek LHP Detroit Tigers >100
75 Gary Sanchez C New York Yankees 57
76 Nick Williams CF Philadelphia Phillies 74
77 Clint Frazier CF Cleveland Indians 72
78 Matt Chapman 3B Oakland Athletics >100
79 Chance Sisco C Baltimore Orioles 81
80 Matt Olson 1B Oakland Athletics >100
81 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh Pirates >100
82 Derek Fisher CF Houston Astros >100
83 Richard Urena SS Toronto Blue Jays >100
84 Aaron Judge RF New York Yankees 36
85 Stone Garrett CF Miami Marlins >100
86 Trent Clark CF Milwaukee Brewers 70
87 Colin Moran 3B Houston Astros >100
88 Richie Martin SS Oakland Athletics >100
89 Harold Ramirez RF Pittsburgh Pirates >100
90 Willy Adames SS Tampa Bay Rays >100
91 Max Kepler RF Minnesota Twins 33
92 Kyle Tucker RF Houston Astros 67
93 Sam Travis 1B Boston Red Sox >100
94 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays 35
95 Amed Rosario SS New York Mets 42
96 Luis Ortiz RHP Texas Rangers 79
97 Luke Jackson RHP Texas Rangers >100
98 Dillon Overton LHP Oakland Athletics >100
99 Brandon Nimmo CF New York Mets >100
100 Wilmer Difo SS Washington Nationals >100

Maybe your robot eyes automatically sort that, but add some code to that [expletive] so it's readable.

don't really know how to mess with the table formatting and it was hard enough to post from my phone. if you do, please feel free.

Aaron_Kennelly · February 15, 2016

ZiPS top 100 vs. Law's.

ZiPS is pretty high on Almora

ZiPS rank Player Pos. Team Law Rank
1 Corey Seager SS Los Angeles Dodgers 1
2 Byron Buxton CF Minnesota Twins 2
3 J.P. Crawford SS Philadelphia Phillies 4
4 Orlando Arcia SS Milwaukee Brewers 10
5 Dansby Swanson SS Atlanta Braves 13
6 Manuel Margot CF San Diego Padres 25
7 A.J. Reed 1B Houston Astros 44
8 Nomar Mazara RF Texas Rangers 9
9 Julio Urias LHP Los Angeles Dodgers 5
10 Steven Matz LHP New York Mets 37
11 Trea Turner SS Washington Nationals 28
12 Lucas Giolito RHP Washington Nationals 3
13 Alex Verdugo CF Los Angeles Dodgers 51
14 Tyler Glasnow RHP Pittsburgh Pirates 6
15 Ozhaino Albies SS Atlanta Braves 20
16 Brett Phillips CF Milwaukee Brewers 46
17 Alex Reyes RHP St. Louis Cardinals 8
18 Joey Gallo 3B Texas Rangers 12
19 Rafael Devers 3B Boston Red Sox 7
20 Javier Guerra SS San Diego Padres 34
21 Jeff Hoffman RHP Colorado Rockies 90
22 Jose Berrios RHP Minnesota Twins 26
23 Austin Meadows CF Pittsburgh Pirates 16
24 Ryan McMahon 3B Colorado Rockies 62
25 Sean Newcomb LHP Atlanta Braves 30
26 Albert Almora CF Chicago Cubs 88
26 Anthony Alford CF Toronto Blue Jays 52
28 Alex Bregman SS Houston Astros 19
29 Jose de Leon RHP Los Angeles Dodgers 60
30 Jorge Polanco SS Minnesota Twins 66
31 Bobby Bradley 1B Cleveland Indians 93
32 Jose Peraza 2B Cincinnati Reds >100
33 Jonathan Gray RHP Colorado Rockies >100
34 Andrew Benintendi CF Boston Red Sox 18
35 Tim Anderson SS Chicago White Sox 45
36 Aaron Blair RHP Atlanta Braves 39
37 Raimel Tapia CF Colorado Rockies 78
38 Alen Hanson 2B Pittsburgh Pirates >100
39 Sean Manaea LHP Oakland Athletics 59
40 Daniel Robertson SS Tampa Bay Rays 85
41 Blake Snell LHP Tampa Bay Rays 14
42 Willson Contreras C Chicago Cubs 27
43 Cody Reed LHP Cincinnati Reds 54
44 Jesse Winker LF Cincinnati Reds 41
45 Gleyber Torres SS Chicago Cubs 15
46 Bradley Zimmer CF Cleveland Indians 21
47 Lewis Brinson CF Texas Rangers 32
48 Dominic Smith 1B New York Mets 29
49 Austin Barnes C Los Angeles Dodgers >100
50 Boog Powell CF Seattle Mariners >100
51 Brendan Rodgers SS Colorado Rockies 11
52 Kevin Newman SS Pittsburgh Pirates 23
53 Michael Fulmer RHP Detroit Tigers 48
54 Braden Shipley RHP Arizona Cardinals 24
55 Brandon Drury 3B Arizona Cardinals >100
56 Billy McKinney RF Chicago Cubs 69
57 David Dahl CF Colorado Rockies 58
58 Brian Johnson LHP Boston Red Sox >100
59 Brent Honeywell RHP Tampa Bay Rays 64
60 Renato Nunez 3B Oakland Athletics >100
61 Franklin Barreto SS Oakland Athletics 22
62 Ian Happ CF Chicago Cubs 47
63 Yoan Moncada 2B Boston Red Sox 17
64 Jomar Reyes 3B Baltimore Orioles >100
65 Christian Arroyo SS San Francisco Giants 65
66 A.J. Cole RHP Washington Nationals >100
67 Victor Robles CF Washington Nationals 49
68 Jack Flaherty RHP St. Louis Cardinals 83
69 Reynaldo Lopez RHP Washington Nationals >100
70 Jake Thompson RHP Philadelphia Phillies 63
71 Marco Gonzales LHP St. Louis Cardinals 76
72 Jake Bauers 1B Tampa Bay Rays >100
73 Dixon Machado SS Detroit Tigers >100
74 Kevin Ziomek LHP Detroit Tigers >100
75 Gary Sanchez C New York Yankees 57
76 Nick Williams CF Philadelphia Phillies 74
77 Clint Frazier CF Cleveland Indians 72
78 Matt Chapman 3B Oakland Athletics >100
79 Chance Sisco C Baltimore Orioles 81
80 Matt Olson 1B Oakland Athletics >100
81 Ke'Bryan Hayes 3B Pittsburgh Pirates >100
82 Derek Fisher CF Houston Astros >100
83 Richard Urena SS Toronto Blue Jays >100
84 Aaron Judge RF New York Yankees 36
85 Stone Garrett CF Miami Marlins >100
86 Trent Clark CF Milwaukee Brewers 70
87 Colin Moran 3B Houston Astros >100
88 Richie Martin SS Oakland Athletics >100
89 Harold Ramirez RF Pittsburgh Pirates >100
90 Willy Adames SS Tampa Bay Rays >100
91 Max Kepler RF Minnesota Twins 33
92 Kyle Tucker RF Houston Astros 67
93 Sam Travis 1B Boston Red Sox >100
94 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays 35
95 Amed Rosario SS New York Mets 42
96 Luis Ortiz RHP Texas Rangers 79
97 Luke Jackson RHP Texas Rangers >100
98 Dillon Overton LHP Oakland Athletics >100
99 Brandon Nimmo CF New York Mets >100
100 Wilmer Difo SS Washington Nationals >100

Interesting that another stats-based projection system is that high on Almora, given that we have castigated his stats for awhile now, with his only real saving grace being his scouting reports.

Cubswin11 · February 15, 2016

I, for one, feel like I will appreciate Almora more when he's traded for a pitcher. Talking about him is about as entertaining to me as talking about Fowler. Different skillsets but all leading down the path to meh.

Idk, to me he can be a right-handed Gerrardo Parra who can actually play CF and not have crazy platoon splits (at least poor ones vs one side of pitchers). Though that might not be exciting that can still be a really valuable player.

David · February 15, 2016

if he continues on as the hitter he was in the second half of last year, i am pretty excited about him

David · February 15, 2016

Idk, to me he can be a right-handed Gerrardo Parra who can actually play CF and not have crazy platoon splits (at least poor ones vs one side of pitchers). Though that might not be exciting that can still be a really valuable player.

Meeeeeeeh, valuable to one of those poor teams maybe.

The Almora 2nd half myth is carried almost totally by his August.

It's more "post team USA" than 2nd half. it's just easier to say second half.

and it was paired with obvious mechanical changes geared toward a more powerful swing.

JennieGarthAlgar · February 15, 2016

I want them all to make it. Almora will make it. The Cream Team will become reality.

RF Heyward

SS Russell

1B Rizzo

3B Bryant

C Schwarber/Contreras

LF Soler/Schwarber

2B Baez

P

CF Almora

SU Zobrist

David · February 15, 2016

even though i like almora, i would much prefer a world where soler and schwarber mash so hard that almora will never have the opportunity to displace one of them (or force them into a platoon)

CubsWin · February 16, 2016

Meeeeeeeh, valuable to one of those poor teams maybe.

The Almora 2nd half myth is carried almost totally by his August.

It's more "post team USA" than 2nd half. it's just easier to say second half.

and it was paired with obvious mechanical changes geared toward a more powerful swing.

Yeah yeah, he's also young and can play defense too. Alls I ask is that the Marlins or A's buy the spiel.

I don't think Almora sucks or anything, just the Cubs can make better use of him than a bench player or the RH half of some kind of platoon situation.

Or there is no need to platoon him, things actually clicked for Almora late last season, he hits AAA pitching very well this year and becomes a valuable, young, controllable, above average starting CFer which when paired up with Heyward in RF gives the Cubs a very strong defensive and offensive OF. That then allows the Cubs to trade Soler+ for a mid-20 MOR with upside next off season.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I do know the Cubs started working with Almora in High-A on selectivity, waiting for and recognizing pitches he can drive and slight swing adjustments (like bringing back his leg kick late last season) to give him more power, and that's exactly what he realized and achieved after returning from Team USA. Coincidence? Maybe. Culmination of a year and a half of hard work and development? Maybe. Who can say for sure, right now?

You can say "meh", have your mind basically made up about him and might turn out to be right, but I'm going to wait and see.

craig · February 16, 2016

McLeod interview from a few days back: http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2 ... -radio.php

Two tangents from the Underwood bit, having two off-speed pitches that are plus or double plus at times, but not getting K's because he's not mixing optimally, not best-utilizing what's sharpest on a give day, not knowing how to sequence, etc:

1. I wonder how much that depends on the catcher versus the pitcher himself? Shouldn't the catcher have the smarts to know? It's one of the reasons I'm curious on Caratini in intangible aspects of catching.

2. Scouts often focus on the "best" pitches. The plus or double-plus offspeedthat can make hitters look sick? But to some degree, it's about consistency. If guy throws 25 double-plus curves, but also throws 6 hangers, isn't it the hangers that go for the HR's and the losses? Might be one way to explain Underwood being said to have plus/double-plus, but still being HR-oriented.

3. "Bad" pitches can be hangers, but I think can also be "tipped". Sometimes a guy reaches a point in his comfort level with delivery where he can finally throw the curve and the change with the same motion and no "tells" to the hitters. Maybe that point will be this year for Underwood?

4. In low minors, the point is development. If a curve or change isn't working on a given day, I assume they are told to keep throwing it and practicing anyway. May be a quota for curves and changes per inning, or something? I wonder if AA might be a level where now you're pitching to win and to get guys out, and they do start pitching their game based on what's working on a given day? If so, perhaps Underwood will benefit?

Anyway, will be interesting to see how Underwood looks this year. Would be fun to see the K's spike and the HR's drop without much jump in walks.

craig · February 16, 2016

even though i like almora, i would much prefer a world where soler and schwarber mash so hard that almora will never have the opportunity to displace one of them (or force them into a platoon)

yes, yes, yes. Have Almora become a fine, good, player, but the Schwarber-Heyward-Soler outfield be such mashers that even if Almora could be an asset 3-WAR guy elsewhere, that he's a 4th for us.

craig · February 16, 2016

Nothing stays the same for prospects. If Almora hits well for Iowa, his former slumps won't matter. And if he struggles in Iowa, last August will be forgotten soon enough. Unwritten story. Having a "meh" guy who was just boringly good, say .730-OPS with double-plus defense, if that's your worst "meh" guy, not sure that's a problem.

CubsWin · February 18, 2016

Or there is no need to platoon him, things actually clicked for Almora late last season, he hits AAA pitching very well this year and becomes a valuable, young, controllable, above average starting CFer which when paired up with Heyward in RF gives the Cubs a very strong defensive and offensive OF. That then allows the Cubs to trade Soler+ for a mid-20 MOR with upside next off season.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I do know the Cubs started working with Almora in High-A on selectivity, waiting for and recognizing pitches he can drive and slight swing adjustments (like bringing back his leg kick late last season) to give him more power, and that's exactly what he realized and achieved after returning from Team USA. Coincidence? Maybe. Culmination of a year and a half of hard work and development? Maybe. Who can say for sure, right now?

You can say "meh", have your mind basically made up about him and might turn out to be right, but I'm going to wait and see.

- Almora put up .257/.297/.384 against RHP last year. He put up .263/.289/.380 in 2014.

- Things clicked for August, got stretched to his whole second half because reasons.

- I actually think he will hit alright in AAA. We saw Vitters hit in AAA too, he put up something like .300/350/.500 at 22 in Iowa. The PCL is still a friendly place to hit and a contact oriented young hitter like Almora has plenty of chance to put up a pretty looking line depsite the lack of power or patience at most other stops in the minors over any serious amount of playing time. Unlike Vitters, he can play defense so naturally his performance will be more valuable. Hopefully that helps turn into a pitcher this deadline or next winter. Heyward's awesome, zero incentive to move him for the sake of moving him to shoehorn in another Cubs prospect starter.

I guess I have made up my mind in some sense. In my defense - the whole reason not to is based around his 125 ABs in August last year. I just don't see that as enough to suddenly believe Heyward is just keeping CF warm for him. Throw in the other 421 ABs he took at AA and he didn't even put up a .700 OPS at the level.

You're just restating your opinion from previous posts and not really dealing with what I wrote.

I never used the words "2nd half". You didn't respond to the notion that he hit really well in Low-A and then his numbers took some steps backward when he started to implement the approach adjustments the Cubs asked him to in High-A. You conveniently list his RHP splits for the two seasons he's been struggling while working on those adjustments but leave out the .308/.350/.473 line he had against them before re-tooling while in Low-A as a 19-year-old. You appear to be cherry-picking to support a conclusion you've already arrived at instead of incorporating the possible larger picture I put forth.

You say the whole reason not to have already made up your mind is based solely on Almora's August. I say (and said in the previous post) the more impactful reason is the fact that he was reworking his approach and that what he accomplished in August was exactly what the Cubs had asked him to work on. He didn't just get hot. Often, when a player starts getting a lot of hits randomly, his walk rate goes down because he's hitting more balls safely. But Almora walked more (a lot more) and hit for more power. He was more selective at the plate and apparently waited for pitches he could and DID drive. He also made a physical adjustment (bringing back his leg kick) that coincided with his break out. This reality puts his August into a larger perspective that you thus far don't want to acknowledge.

Vitters and Almora are similar. Both were high 1st rounders touted as having good plate coverage and the ability to make contact. Both didn't take a lot of walks. But there is some BIG differences between the two. Vitters was never coached by this developmental staff with a cohesive Cubs Way plan set forth before him. He didn't have the advanced technology Almora does, and he didn't have the make-up/work ethic Almora has. Vitters was not asked to retool his approach while at High-A and coached to stick with it. And thus, as we saw with a lot of top Cubs prospects of that era, he struggled mightily at the upper levels. I find this a poor comparison that doesn't have a lot to say about our discussion.

Whether Almora struggled purely because he's started facing better competition while being 2 years young for his level or struggled for those reasons and that he was simultaneously reworking his approach is yet to be shown. All we know is he and Candelario were working on making changes once they reached High-A. Both struggled for a while. Then, on about the same timeline, both started achieving the changes they were working on. We have to see both of them continue to perform to confirm whether it was an aberration or true progression and the culmination of hard work. But there's a lot more going on here than just a hot August for Almora.

CubsWin · February 18, 2016

Almora did a Q&A with MiLB.com on the 16th. Here are some excerpts...

MiLB.com: You drew some more walks and cut down on strikeouts in 2015 compared to the previous season. Have the Cubs talked to you about your approach or anything? Do you see yourself developing into more of a power hitter, or how would you describe yourself?

Almora: I'm getting better. It's not that I'm being more patient, I'm getting my pitch to hit. I didn't understand it at first -- they wanted me to walk more, so I went up thinking walk instead of a hit. But now I've kinda got it. I get a pitch I can drive and if it's not that pitch, then I take it. That's how walks get created.

MiLB.com: How would you evaluate last season? A full year at Double-A, how did you feel it went?

Almora: I think it was a learning year. I feel I had started off not where I wanted to be, my swing was raw, I felt awkward. I got it going through the middle of the year and I had success after the All-Star break. So that's all it is: figuring it out. I'm happy the way it ended, I can't wait to start this year and move forward.

MiLB.com: You left the Smokies in July to play for Team USA in the Pan American Games. What was that experience like? Seventh time joining Team USA, I believe.

Almora: Yeah, that's another big game-changer for me. I got back to why I play this game. I had so much fun with that team, just trying to get that gold medal for us. When I got back, it was like a fresh start and everything clicked for me.

MiLB.com: Another from Twitter, what is your approach going up to bat?

Almora: You've gotta know the situation. My approach is to know I'm gonna get a hit. Having that confidence, the positive mentality is huge. Getting a good pitch to hit and hitting it hard. When I was doing well last year, everything was simple.

CubsWin · February 18, 2016

Almora's a decent prospect for what he is - a glove first CF without much speed, patience, or power and probably some trouble hitting advanced same hand pitching - but I don't get the obligation to celebrate that or whaever is being asked for.

You don't have to do a thing. There is no "obligation". Nothing is being asked of you.

I'm simply stating my case for why I'm keeping an open mind. You seem to know what he is and isn't. That's cool.

Vinestal · February 18, 2016

Almora's a decent prospect for what he is - a glove first CF without much speed, patience, or power and probably some trouble hitting advanced same hand pitching - but I don't get the obligation to celebrate that or whaever is being asked for.
You don't have to do a thing. There is no "obligation". Nothing is being asked of you.

I'm simply stating my case for why I'm keeping an open mind. You seem to know what he is and isn't. That's cool.

I'm just running with what he's been for ~1400 minor league PAs, including ~600 AA PAs. This isn't a bad player or prospect, I have made thar clear, so I don't get what it is that bothers you so much.

Lumping all of his plate appearances together and not putting any of it in perspective or considering a very young player's learning curve is a pretty short sighted thing to do. The next couple of years will tell what Almora is or isn't. He's not a finished product. He still has time to put up some substantially better numbers.

craig · February 19, 2016

...Isn't it a little too convenient that he's making adjustments when he's struggling but at the first sign of life he's possibly all better now? Why can't he still be mostly the same guy with. a mediocre but not career killing .287/.323/.416 line in the minors over almost 1400 PAs? Isn't that more likely than he suddenly clicked and found a new level over the final ~150 or so PAs out of the nearly 600 he's taken at AA? ....

Nothing stays the same, of course, and usually guys his worse in the most difficult level in the world.

But if he could be the same .287/.323/.416 guy in the majors, I'd consider that quite solid for a plus-defense CFer. There were 12 CFers last year who finished above .730-OPS, and I'm not sure Dexter was the only one who's a lesser-defender than Almora. A .739-OPS Almora could start a lot of games for a lot of teams.

The problem, of course, is whether he can improve enough to hit that well in the majors. I hope so, but think it's less than probable.

craig · February 19, 2016

...Isn't it a little too convenient that he's making adjustments when he's struggling but at the first sign of life he's possibly all better now? Why can't he still be mostly the same guy with. a mediocre but not career killing .287/.323/.416 line in the minors over almost 1400 PAs? Isn't that more likely than he suddenly clicked and found a new level over the final ~150 or so PAs out of the nearly 600 he's taken at AA? ....

Nothing stays the same, of course, and usually guys hit worse in the most difficult level in the world.

But if he could be the same .287/.323/.416 guy in the majors, I'd consider that quite solid for a plus-defense CFer. There were 12 CFers last year who finished above .730-OPS, and I'm not sure Dexter was the only one who's a lesser-defender than Almora. A .739-OPS Almora could start a lot of games for a lot of teams.

The problem, of course, is whether he can improve enough to hit that well in the majors. I hope so, but think it's less than probable.

CubsWin · February 19, 2016

You don't have to do a thing. There is no "obligation". Nothing is being asked of you.

I'm simply stating my case for why I'm keeping an open mind. You seem to know what he is and isn't. That's cool.

I'm just running with what he's been for ~1400 minor league PAs, including ~600 AA PAs. This isn't a bad player or prospect, I have made thar clear, so I don't get what it is that bothers you so much.

Lumping all of his plate appearances together and not putting any of it in perspective or considering a very young player's learning curve is a pretty short sighted thing to do. The next couple of years will tell what Almora is or isn't. He's not a finished product. He still has time to put up some substantially better numbers.

This. Thanks, Vinestal.

Tom, the only thing that bothers me is you respond to posts sometimes seemingly without reading them. I wrote flat out "Nothing is being asked of you", "I'm simply stating my case" "You don't have to do a thing" "That's cool". But you write back "I don't get what it is that bothers you so much".

Tim · February 19, 2016

Lumping all of his plate appearances together and not putting any of it in perspective or considering a very young player's learning curve is a pretty short sighted thing to do. The next couple of years will tell what Almora is or isn't. He's not a finished product. He still has time to put up some substantially better numbers.

I don't get how it's any more or less reasonable than thinking a switch got flipped because he went on a vision quest somewhere, lessons sunk in, all necessary adjustments were permanently made, and he had a great August. I think he's a lock to make it to the majors barring a catastrophic injury. Right now he seems like a glove first OF with a mostly flawed bat but the contact skills to maybe BABIP his way to a quality season or two. What's the upside here - something close to an OF DJ LeMahieu or Darwin Barney tier player/starter?

The upside is that he's fixed his approach enough to walk as much as he whiffs, selects better pitches to drive and adds some power as he fills out a bit. All while providing plus defense in CF. That's basically Mookie Betts with better defense.

I wouldn't bet much on that outcome, but you asked about the upside.

Tim · February 19, 2016

A more reasonable upside projection would be 2015 Adam Eaton with better defense and getting to the BA through more contact instead of BABIP.

David · February 19, 2016

yeah. dj lemahieu or barney as "upside?" wtf lol

David · February 19, 2016

Craig Mish: “I’m going to leave it completely up to you. Most people do play in keeper leagues in our format, but again a lot of people want to win this year Theo. So, it’s kind of like a 50-50 type deal. You make the call.”
Theo Epstein: “I’ll give you two guys who are close to the big leagues and play positions for us where down the line there should be openings for them in the big leagues. That’s Willson Contreras, a catcher from Venezuela, and Albert Almora Jr., our first pick back in 2012. Contreras put together an unbelievable all-around season in Double-A last year. We think he’s ready for Triple-A. Great blocker, really strong throwing arm, has a chance to be a force defensively. This kid is a really underrated athlete. Has power to all fields, is going to work the gaps, is going to be, I think, a really productive offensive catcher to go along with his throwing arm. Obviously catching development takes time and you need your opportunity. But the way offense is at that position I think he has a chance to be most importantly a real asset for us, but also an asset from a fantasy standpoint for your listeners down the line.

Albert Almora Jr. is in an organization that right now doesn’t have, like a real traditional answer at center field. He’s someone we think is also Triple-A ready. Really came on strong the last two months of last season. He’s just starting to figure out his approach. Added a lot, the right kind of muscle this winter. I just saw him taking BP yesterday and was mishitting balls out of the ballpark and smoking balls all over the field. The ball is coming off his bat a little bit differently than it has in previous years. He’s a tremendous defensive player in the middle of the field. Great makeup, great contact ability which should allow him to survive against Major League pitching and probably fill up some categories for your listeners. He’s someone who is a big part of our future. He’s gotten a little bit overlooked with some of the other young outfielders that we have but we certainly haven’t forgotten or given up on Albert in the least.”

http://chicagocubsonline.com/archives/2016/02/theo-epstein-talks-cubs-and-rotisserie-baseball-on-siriusxm-fantasy-baseball.php

Minor League Musings

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

Create an account

Sign in

Member Statistics

Prospect News & Highlights

Recent News

Notes & Rumors

Recent Blogs