Today's wish list...

[minnesotacubsfan]

I was actually asking Tim, but thanks for your answer. This really leaves us without a leadoff hitter.

 

[expletive] lead off hitters

[tspain]

It is bad when someone asks a good question as I did, and get replies like the one just above. Shows real talent to write garbage. Thanks. So some think Heyward can be the leadoff hitter. If you like a K man as leadoff hitter, fine, but I don't. Frankly, I would rather have Denier back, or Lou Brock, someone who can get on and get over. The daily double. You guys are happy to play for 3 run homers all day, and I would actually rather have an offense that creates some havoc for the defense, and scores without the long ball.

[Guest]

It is bad when someone asks a good question as I did, and get replies like the one just above. Shows real talent to write garbage. Thanks. So some think Heyward can be the leadoff hitter. If you like a K man as leadoff hitter, fine, but I don't. Frankly, I would rather have Denier back, or Lou Brock, someone who can get on and get over. The daily double. You guys are happy to play for 3 run homers all day, and I would actually rather have an offense that creates some havoc for the defense, and scores without the long ball.

 

yikes

 

i'm not even sure where to begin, but i'll start with...you think jason heyward is a "K man?"

 

double check on that one and get back to us.

 

as much as i hate the traditional concept of a leadoff man, jason heyward possesses pretty much all the traits that guys like you who like that stuff are looking for. he can steal bases, he gets on base at a high clip, and no, he doesn't strike out a lot (not that that's a big deal). he also has pretty good power which means getting into scoring position often.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

It is bad when someone asks a good question as I did, and get replies like the one just above. Shows real talent to write garbage. Thanks. So some think Heyward can be the leadoff hitter. If you like a K man as leadoff hitter, fine, but I don't. Frankly, I would rather have Denier back, or Lou Brock, someone who can get on and get over. The daily double. You guys are happy to play for 3 run homers all day, and I would actually rather have an offense that creates some havoc for the defense, and scores without the long ball.

 

Heyward doesn't strike out that much.

[Guest]

It is bad when someone asks a good question as I did, and get replies like the one just above. Shows real talent to write garbage. Thanks. So some think Heyward can be the leadoff hitter. If you like a K man as leadoff hitter, fine, but I don't. Frankly, I would rather have Denier back, or Lou Brock, someone who can get on and get over. The daily double. You guys are happy to play for 3 run homers all day, and I would actually rather have an offense that creates some havoc for the defense, and scores without the long ball.

 

 

It was not a very good question. When you asked it, the only leadoff hitter suggestions were Heyward and Span.

 

Heyward: .293/359/.439, 23 SB, 14.8% K%

Span: .301/.365/.431, 11 SB, 9.5% K% - note, this was in less than half a season, Span averages 21 SB per 600 PA

Fowler: .250/.346/.411, 20 SB, 22.3% K%

 

Both of the alternatives mentioned are better at the characteristics you mentioned than Fowler, as well as league average. Please make sure that your intuitions and perceptions match reality.

[Guest]

It is bad when someone asks a good question as I did, and get replies like the one just above. Shows real talent to write garbage. Thanks.

If you are the master of etiquette, please let me know: how polite is it to ignore my direct response to your question?

 

So some think Heyward can be the leadoff hitter. If you like a K man as leadoff hitter, fine, but I don't. Frankly, I would rather have Denier back, or Lou Brock, someone who can get on and get over. The daily double. You guys are happy to play for 3 run homers all day, and I would actually rather have an offense that creates some havoc for the defense, and scores without the long ball.

First off, equating Dernier and Brock is pretty lazy. Sure, I'd love to have a HOF player no matter how he gets his production. If you see a HOF player on the market to play CF, please make a suggestion how we can get him.

 

Now, for the suggestion that you'd prefer to have Dernier at leadoff than Heyward...

 

There aren't a lot of guys like Dernier in baseball today. A large part of that is because it has been shown over time that players with that skillset do not provide as much value. Dernier made a lot of contact (10.9% K Rate), but hit the ball very weakly. As a result, pretty much all his offensive value came from hitting singles and then stealing second base. He averaged 39 SB per 162 games, but also 11.29 CS per 162. All those times caught stealing significantly reduce the value of the times when he did successfully steal. He was a fragile player and only played more than 122 games in a year one time. He wasn't that good at getting on base - he only reached at a .318 clip. Also, for all his speed, he wasn't a very good CF. He barely totals positive defensive value for his career.

 

Now lets look at Heyward across all those metrics: he makes slightly less contact at a 15% K rate, but because he hits the ball much harder he has been able to keep a much higher batting average (.280-.255). Over the past couple years, he's averaged 23 SB per 162, but only 3.74 CS per 162. While he does not steal as much, he is much more effective at it. This brings the value of their running nearly equal. If you add on the difference in the number of doubles (Dernier had one season over 20, Heyward has one season under 20) it basically closes that gap in value. This is important because it is the only area where it is possible to favor Dernier. Heyward is a much more durable player - he played more than 122 games every year of his career but one. He is very good at getting on base (the most important role of a leadoff hitter). He has gotten on base at a .353 OBP across his career. Now add in the additional value he provides hitting triples and home runs (with the possibility of adding much more power as he ages - he has the size and bat speed for more HR without question). Now add in the tremendous defensive value he brings as one of the best OF in the game.

 

I do not even begin to understand how you could suggest a preference for Dernier over Heyward.

 

But I welcome you to try to refute what I've said above.

[minnesotacubsfan]

It is bad when someone asks a good question as I did, and get replies like the one just above. Shows real talent to write garbage. Thanks. So some think Heyward can be the leadoff hitter. If you like a K man as leadoff hitter, fine, but I don't. Frankly, I would rather have Denier back, or Lou Brock, someone who can get on and get over. The daily double. You guys are happy to play for 3 run homers all day, and I would actually rather have an offense that creates some havoc for the defense, and scores without the long ball.

 

 

You're taking this way too personally. My reply is only a response to a old, boring, and inadequate approach to baseball. I want the best hitters we can get at every position batting at each spot in the order.

 

That's it.

[jersey cubs fan]

It is bad when someone asks a good question as I did, and get replies like the one just above. Shows real talent to write garbage. Thanks. So some think Heyward can be the leadoff hitter. If you like a K man as leadoff hitter, fine, but I don't. Frankly, I would rather have Denier back, or Lou Brock, someone who can get on and get over. The daily double. You guys are happy to play for 3 run homers all day, and I would actually rather have an offense that creates some havoc for the defense, and scores without the long ball.

It wasn't a good question.

[tspain]

Tim, guess you didn't read what I wrote. You had Heyward at leadoff, and I talked about that in my post. Thanks. In no way was I saying Brock and Denier were the same player, just good leadoff guys who could steal bases. You guys just read what you want to read, and post what you want to post. Never mind what the person had in mind who wrote it. And way to fast to hate someone's ideas. You might not want to be so critical of ideas on here if you want people to read this stuff. Thanks.

[Guest]

Tim, guess you didn't read what I wrote. You had Heyward at leadoff, and I talked about that in my post. Thanks. In no way was I saying Brock and Denier were the same player, just good leadoff guys who could steal bases. You guys just read what you want to read, and post what you want to post. Never mind what the person had in mind who wrote it. And way to fast to hate someone's ideas. You might not want to be so critical of ideas on here if you want people to read this stuff. Thanks.

 

What in the world?

 

This is just some incredible irony. Did you actually read his response? He actually took the time to make a well reasoned post/argument and your response is to get defensive and not actually reply to the points that he (or anyone else - snarky or otherwise) made. Why would you think that type of "contribution" would even be desired, anyway?

[SouthSideRyan]

Lou Brock struck out at a higher rate in his career than Heyward did last year.

[davell]

I want the Greek Godliness of leadoff hitters. Taiwan Easterling or bust.

[Felix Leiter]

Just to clear up a couple of things...Lou Brock was not always batting leadoff. When the Cardinals had Curt Flood for a number of years(leading off), Brock batted 2nd. Brock was an average fielder and had surprising power at times. He once hit a HR to dead CF at the Polo Grounds.

 

Agree with Tim, Dernier was average at the plate and in the field. The questions on Jason Heyward are do the Cubs see him as a RF or CF, as a leadoff hitter or 5-6 slot? Great fielder in RF and probably in CF. Do you think he'll develop the power to justify playing RF? You've got Soler who's gonna be good for 25-30 HR and yes I know he's a bad fielder, but does that justify paying Heyward $175M? If you see Heyward as a CF/leadoff batter, are you factoring in his speed will diminish playing CF every day? Besides, I don't think you want him trying to steal 30-40 bases with his salary. I don't see Heyward as a leadoff guy or developing a sudden power stroke.

[Guest]

The questions on Jason Heyward are do the Cubs see him as a RF or CF, as a leadoff hitter or 5-6 slot?

 

Presumably the Cubs would try him in CF, but even if they think he'll eventually have to move to RF that's fine because you don't want to plan your outfield years in advance and Heyward is a great RF option anyway.

 

Heyward's spot in the order is almost 100% irrelevant. If the Cubs think he's worth getting he's worth getting regardless of whether he hits 1st or 8th.

 

Do you think he'll develop the power to justify playing RF?

 

Heyward has been one of the most valuable RF in the game, he doesn't need to do anything to justify playing the position.

 

If you see Heyward as a CF/leadoff batter, are you factoring in his speed will diminish playing CF every day?

 

Why in the world would Heyward's speed diminish playing in CF?

[weis21]

Why would playing CF somehow make him slower?

[jersey cubs fan]

Why would playing CF somehow make him slower?

I assume he's thinking that all that running in CF will tire his legs and slow him. I think.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Striped bass and [expletive]

[sneakypower]

amongst all qualified hitters last season, Heyward was

 

- 74th percentile for OBP

- 74th percentile for strikeout rate

- 95th percentile for stolen base value (wSB)

- 85th percentile for taking pitches out of the zone

- 71st percentile for walk rate

- 86th percentile for Speed Score

- 96th percentile for baserunning value

- 74th percentile for contact rate

 

so, i mean, if he's not a good leadoff hitter, who is?

[Clem Fandango]

amongst all qualified hitters last season, Heyward was

 

- 74th percentile for OBP

- 74th percentile for strikeout rate

- 95th percentile for stolen base value (wSB)

- 85th percentile for taking pitches out of the zone

- 71st percentile for walk rate

- 86th percentile for Speed Score

- 96th percentile for baserunning value

- 74th percentile for contact rate

 

so, i mean, if he's not a good leadoff hitter, who is?

 

Juan Pierre, duh.

[davell]

Choose one for your leadoff hitter......

 

Player A .247/.386/.497 with a 14.7℅ walk rate, 12.9%K rate, and 63/71 SB, but just had a finger and a toe bitten off by a diseased raccoon

 

Player B .334/.371/.422 with a 5.3% walk rate, 8.5%K rate, and 92/96 SB but has been diagnosed as a standing sleeper recently

 

Player C .286/.378/.462 with a 11.8% walk rate, has never struck out and is 3/77 in SB, but weighs 498 pounds and has it in his contract that he is allowed to forward roll or cart wheel on steal attempts due to his love of beginning gymnastics.

 

Yes, this was a stupid exercise. But so is trying to explain that Jason Heyward is a great leadoff hitter to that guy, especially once he turned into a prick about it.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'll take headless Kate Upton.

[cubfro]

Choose one for your leadoff hitter......

 

Player A .247/.386/.497 with a 14.7℅ walk rate, 12.9%K rate, and 63/71 SB, but just had a finger and a toe bitten off by a diseased raccoon

 

Player B .334/.371/.422 with a 5.3% walk rate, 8.5%K rate, and 92/96 SB but has been diagnosed as a standing sleeper recently

 

Player C .286/.378/.462 with a 11.8% walk rate, has never struck out and is 3/77 in SB, but weighs 498 pounds and has it in his contract that he is allowed to forward roll or cart wheel on steal attempts due to his love of beginning gymnastics.

 

Yes, this was a stupid exercise. But so is trying to explain that Jason Heyward is a great leadoff hitter to that guy, especially once he turned into a prick about it.

 

 

I had no idea Vogelbach was into gymnastics. If only they had a DH in the NL...

[wvcbxl]

Striped bass and [expletive]

 

Is that you, Dusty?

[biittner77]

Heyward's led off the game 126 times in his career, with a .866 OPS

 

i'd be ok with that

 

Especially considering that Maddon bats the pitcher 8th.

[Guest]

Updating this for my whims as of today and rumors of only $30M being available...

 

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First, some assumptions.

 

1) the crowdsourced contract estimates at Fangraphs are correct (they're typically low for the big contracts)

2) there is $30M free cash currently available

3) reasonable backloading is allowed on FA contracts

4) The Marlins are being honest when they say Fernandez is NOT available

 

-----------------------------------

 

Needs:

 

1) SP

2) CF

3) SP Depth

4) Bullpen Depth

5) Farm Depth

 

------------------------------------

 

The Plan:

 

Even though SP need is #1, I'm going to fill CF first and then plan around it. Heyward at 8/$184M is my first move. I'm going to backload the deal a bit and also give him an opt-out after four years so he can hit the market again when he's 30. His 2016 salary hit will be $18M and it will ramp up like this: 18, 20, 22, 24, 25, 25, 25, 25.

 

Next I have to address SP.

 

With $12M left in the budget, pretty much any free agent pitcher I would like here is out of reach if the team wants to address the other needs. So...trading time. The only problem is that I don't want to trade our major league assets if I can avoid it. The only team talking about taking prospects in return for cheap and effective pitching is atlanta. So...I'm going to address SP and Bullpen Depth in one shot. I'm going to send Contreras, McKinney and Underwood to Atlanta for Shelby Miller and Jason Grilli. Miller is first year arb eligible and I'll estimate $2M there. Grilli is a steal at $3.5M. That still leaves me $6.5M in my budget.

 

Next is SP Depth.

 

We have a full rotation at this point with Arrieta/Lester/Shark/Hendricks/Hammel. I'm actually okay with leaving Hammel in the rotation, but I really want to add depth in case of injury. The best way to do that is by adding a player with options. Yaisel Sierra is my main target here. The main comp used for his contract is Raisel Iglesias. He got a seven year contract for $23M that paid a $5M bonus up front and then cheap salaries. I'll assume something similar here and say that he'll cost us $5M in 2016.

 

Farm:

 

At this point I only have $1.5M left in the budget. So I'm going to make a couple moves at this point. I'll trade Wood and Coghlan for the best return I can get for each guy. I don't expect to get much for Wood (I'll non-tender if I can't get anything), but I'm hoping for an upside arm for Cogs. That should free up an additional $10M. I now have $11.5 left in the budget and I'm going to use all that on Cubans.

 

I'll also explore what value I can get in return for Castro. If I can add a potential impact arm near the majors, I'm going to make the trade. But if I can't get someone that adds real depth for 2016 I will pass on the trade. If I do make the trade, I'll also invest his $7M salary for 2016 in IFA and consider that as part of the return on the trade. Given the situation, I'll see if creative accounting can be used to borrow his 2017 $9M salary to use on IFA this year, as well. That would give me quite a few potential impact guys in return for Castro.

 

---------------------

 

So, for my $30M available (plus $10M more by trading Wood & Cogs) I add:

 

Heyward

Miller

Grilli

Sierra

Prospects in return for Wood/Cogs

Cubans and other IFA

 

If the Castro trade works out, I also add:

 

AA/AAA MLB-ready arm ready to step into the rotation

another whole bunch of Cubans and other IFA

 

---------------------

 

So...there's the plan as of this morning. I'm sure it'll be different again tomorrow.