Schwarber ROY candidate?

[OleMissCub]

If he were to play every game the rest of the year, he will have played in 80 games. ROY winners who played in the fewest games:

 

Willie McCovey won in 52 games. He hit .354/.429/.656, 13 HR, 38 RBI

 

Ryan Howard won it in 88 games, going .288/.356/.567, 22 HR, 63 RBI

[Sammy Sofa]

Who could win it instead? Bryant? Pederson? A couple of flash in the pan hacks who got exposed as the shams they are, plus they both spell their first names like a pair of dickheads. Schwarber is a lumbering mass of meat and sweat and exists to hit dongs and slay opposing teams.

[Guest]

This is the deepest ROY class in many years. Bryant, Pederson, Grichuk, Duffy, Kang, Syndergaard

[Gilby]

I'll be fairly surprised if Bryant doesn't win, assuming he rebounds and finishes with a ~.800 ops. I have no idea how many of the voters look at WAR but he still leads there. He's gotten so much publicity and is the biggest name of the group that I think it's his to lose.

[ARCubsFan]

Going by numbers alone, it's probably going to be Grichuk or Snydergaard. Of course the Cardinals have probably the best rookie in one of the deepest rookies classes in years.

[OleMissCub]

Schwarber's end of season slash line will look like McCovey's and will make the voters cream for him.

[Guest]

The only way he wins it is if he continues hitting the exact same way he has been. He's at 1.4 fWAR and 1.3 bWAR coming into today. If he continued at this pace and played close to every day, he'll be around 4 WAR.

 

Current top 5:

Bryant 3.6

Duffy 3.4

Kang 2.8

Grichuk 2.7

Pederson 2.6

 

bWAR is similar (Duffy, Kang, Grichuk, Bryant, NICK AHMED)

 

Regardless, it's amazing he's 10th in position player WAR (both ones) among rookies despite playing less than 1/3 of the games of almost everyone around him.

[OleMissCub]

 

Regardless, it's amazing he's 10th in position player WAR (both ones) among rookies despite playing less than 1/3 of the games of almost everyone around him.

 

And I'm sure the voters will take that into account....or I hope they are smart enough to.

[Guest]

 

Regardless, it's amazing he's 10th in position player WAR (both ones) among rookies despite playing less than 1/3 of the games of almost everyone around him.

 

And I'm sure the voters will take that into account....or I hope they are smart enough to.

 

In similar impressive numbers, Carlos Correa has played double the games Schwarber has (though it's a bit more than double the PA's) and has been worth 2.7 fWAR. Full season pace of about 8 WAR.

 

And he hasn't turned 21 yet.

[RammyFanny]

Who could win it instead? Bryant? Pederson? A couple of flash in the pan hacks who got exposed as the shams they are, plus they both spell their first names like a pair of dickheads. Schwarber is a lumbering mass of meat and sweat and exists to hit dongs and slay opposing teams.

*clicks +1 button*

[Fro]

Playing more in LF will hurt his offensive WAR accumulation although I think he'll be above-average there and get some defensive WARs.

[imb]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/478987124318814208[/tweet]

[Guest]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/478987124318814208[/tweet]

 

To be fair, that doesn't mean he didn't think he was good nor does it mean he was wrong.

 

Like he said, he was a college first round guy in short season. He's supposed to put up video game numbers.

Edited August 9, 2015 by David

[SouthSideRyan]

Law's response was weird, but the guy was asking him how excited to be about his first 19 PAs of professional baseball.

[imb]

excuse me, im trying to make fun of a nerd for being down on schwarber thanks

[Gilby]

Law was lower on Schwarber than most, iirc. I want to say he had him ranked in the 70s or 80s before the season in his top 100?

[Guest]

what if schwarber is some trout-esque (without the first call up) beast that just immediately superstars and never lets up?

 

that would be amazing

[Hairyducked Idiot]

what if schwarber is some trout-esque (without the first call up) beast that just immediately superstars and never lets up?

 

that would be amazing

 

What if his BABIP drops 120 points like it will and he becomes an above-average hitter who sometimes plays catcher and is good for 3-4 WAR per year?

[Guest]

what if schwarber is some trout-esque (without the first call up) beast that just immediately superstars and never lets up?

 

that would be amazing

 

What if his BABIP drops 120 points like it will and he becomes an above-average hitter who sometimes plays catcher and is good for 3-4 WAR per year?

 

that would be cool but not nearly as fun

[BigSlick]

what if schwarber is some trout-esque (without the first call up) beast that just immediately superstars and never lets up?

 

that would be amazing

 

What if his BABIP drops 120 points like it will and he becomes an above-average hitter who sometimes plays catcher and is good for 3-4 WAR per year?

Nah I'm pretty sure he's Babe Ruth reincarnated

[Aaron_Kennelly]

what if schwarber is some trout-esque (without the first call up) beast that just immediately superstars and never lets up?

 

that would be amazing

 

What if his BABIP drops 120 points like it will and he becomes an above-average hitter who sometimes plays catcher and is good for 3-4 WAR per year?

 

What if he is some Trout-esque beast like David said, and his BABIP only drops like 90 or 100 points, as someone with his current batted-ball profile and exit velocity suggest is possible? And what if his BB% keeps going up, as pitchers become more terrified of him? And what if his O-Swing% keeps dropping, as it has been in his second go-around? And what if his Contact% keeps going up, as it has been in his second go-around? And what if not all players peak at 17 nowadays, and he just keeps improving?

 

I know this is sort of a "temper your expectations" post from you, with a dose of "I am hopelessly miserable and love pissing in the punch bowl." But, since his second call-up, Schwarber has been some kind of Goldschmidt/Trout-esque freak, and the underlying numbers concur. His first call-up was heavily BABIP-aided, and his overall numbers are still riding high off of that, with a little more BABIP luck this time around, too. But, he really has been a Trout-like freak, so far. Of hitters with at least 300 PA, only Stanton and J.D. Martinez have a higher Hard-Hit%, and only Stanton has a higher average exit velocity.

 

Certainly I'm not claiming him to be Mike Trout, or that he can't regress to that 3-4 win level... or worse. And that's definitely the most likely outcome. But, maybe he is a Mike Trout-esque freak.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Frank Thomas

[Pushfrog98]

According to a few Cardinal fans on Facebook, it'll be the upset of the century if Grichuk doesn't win it.

[sneakypower]

just throwing it out there, Kris Bryant has a higher WPA than Mike Trout (good for 10th-best in MLB)

 

if you adjust for leverage index, it's not quite so rosy, but Bryant still does lead all rookies

[Banedon]

According to a few Cardinal fans on Facebook, it'll be the upset of the century if Grichuk doesn't win it.

 

My understanding is that this is a narrative that the Cardinals announcers are pushing pretty hard during the broadcasts.