Our future at CF?

[Bryants Disco Ball]

What is this 1-2 year deal for Fowler stuff? You hope he takes Granderson money and you sprint to give him that.

 

what was that, 60/4?

 

I'd be fine with that.

 

Yikes, I would not be.

[Guest]

What is this 1-2 year deal for Fowler stuff? You hope he takes Granderson money and you sprint to give him that.

 

what was that, 60/4?

 

I'd be fine with that.

 

Yikes, I would not be.

 

this is what baseball players cost. $15M AAV is not a lot of money. that's going rate for a slightly above average season. slightly.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

What is this 1-2 year deal for Fowler stuff? You hope he takes Granderson money and you sprint to give him that.

 

what was that, 60/4?

 

I'd be fine with that.

 

Yikes, I would not be.

 

this is what baseball players cost. $15M AAV is not a lot of money. that's going rate for a slightly above average season. slightly.

 

I guess I'm still not there yet, then. Because $15 to me on a four-year contract is still a nice investment in my eyes. Yes, the Cubs can get away with a few more $15 million guys because of the cheap labor of all these young guys, but I just feel they can use the $15 per on something much better than Fowler. And there is no way I'm giving him that kind of commitment unless he improves on his performance.

 

If $15 million is what it takes to get the Dexter Fowler types, then that sucks.

[Guest]

What is this 1-2 year deal for Fowler stuff? You hope he takes Granderson money and you sprint to give him that.

 

what was that, 60/4?

 

I'd be fine with that.

 

Yikes, I would not be.

 

this is what baseball players cost. $15M AAV is not a lot of money. that's going rate for a slightly above average season. slightly.

 

I guess I'm still not there yet, then. Because $15 to me on a four-year contract is still a nice investment in my eyes. Yes, the Cubs can get away with a few more $15 million guys because of the cheap labor of all these young guys, but I just feel they can use the $15 per on something much better than Fowler. And there is no way I'm giving him that kind of commitment unless he improves on his performance.

 

If $15 million is what it takes to get the Dexter Fowler types, then that sucks.

 

why does it suck? it's just a reflection of the way the system is set up and how much money the game has.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Has Zagunis been playing CF? I'm so behind on the minors this year.

[Guest]

Has Zagunis been playing CF? I'm so behind on the minors this year.

 

i believe so

[Guest]

 

I guess I'm still not there yet, then. Because $15 to me on a four-year contract is still a nice investment in my eyes. Yes, the Cubs can get away with a few more $15 million guys because of the cheap labor of all these young guys, but I just feel they can use the $15 per on something much better than Fowler. And there is no way I'm giving him that kind of commitment unless he improves on his performance.

 

If $15 million is what it takes to get the Dexter Fowler types, then that sucks.

 

also what are you expecting to get in FA that is much better than dexter fowler for $15M a year?

[jersey cubs fan]

I guess I'm still not there yet, then. Because $15 to me on a four-year contract is still a nice investment in my eyes. Yes, the Cubs can get away with a few more $15 million guys because of the cheap labor of all these young guys, but I just feel they can use the $15 per on something much better than Fowler. And there is no way I'm giving him that kind of commitment unless he improves on his performance.

 

If $15 million is what it takes to get the Dexter Fowler types, then that sucks.

I hear what you are saying but the value is really in guaranteeing competency. There is value in simply not being bad.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Has Zagunis been playing CF? I'm so behind on the minors this year.

13 G in LF

6 G in CF

32 G in RF

9 G as DH

[Guest]

I guess I'm still not there yet, then. Because $15 to me on a four-year contract is still a nice investment in my eyes. Yes, the Cubs can get away with a few more $15 million guys because of the cheap labor of all these young guys, but I just feel they can use the $15 per on something much better than Fowler. And there is no way I'm giving him that kind of commitment unless he improves on his performance.

 

If $15 million is what it takes to get the Dexter Fowler types, then that sucks.

I hear what you are saying but the value is really in guaranteeing competency. There is value in simply not being bad.

 

Good way to put it.

[CubColtPacer]

What is this 1-2 year deal for Fowler stuff? You hope he takes Granderson money and you sprint to give him that.

 

what was that, 60/4?

 

I'd be fine with that.

 

Yikes, I would not be.

 

this is what baseball players cost. $15M AAV is not a lot of money. that's going rate for a slightly above average season. slightly.

 

Which happens to be all that Fowler has ever given in his prime. There isn't that much potential for upside, and there's lots of avenues for downside. He could easily do what Bourn did for example.

 

Signing Fowler wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But I think the wiser route is qualifying offer and likely pocketing the pick. I'm not a fan of locking in players who are on that sort of trajectory. It's too easy to have massive playing time questions if they decline even a little bit.

[Cubswin11]

I'd be fine with Fowler for 4/50-60, but the guy I really want is Jason Heyward.

[OleMissCub]

Has Zagunis been playing CF? I'm so behind on the minors this year.

13 G in LF

6 G in CF

32 G in RF

9 G as DH

 

He is surely due for a promotion to AA soon, right?

[Guest]

Fowler is only an average at best player if you're convinced he's a -10 (or worse) defender.

[OleMissCub]

You would think Fowler would be an above average defender, but the defensive metrics don't seem to show that (unless I'm reading them wrong).

[Bryants Disco Ball]

What is this 1-2 year deal for Fowler stuff? You hope he takes Granderson money and you sprint to give him that.

 

what was that, 60/4?

 

I'd be fine with that.

 

Yikes, I would not be.

 

this is what baseball players cost. $15M AAV is not a lot of money. that's going rate for a slightly above average season. slightly.

 

Which happens to be all that Fowler has ever given in his prime. There isn't that much potential for upside, and there's lots of avenues for downside. He could easily do what Bourn did for example.

 

Signing Fowler wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. But I think the wiser route is qualifying offer and likely pocketing the pick. I'm not a fan of locking in players who are on that sort of trajectory. It's too easy to have massive playing time questions if they decline even a little bit.

 

Also, I understand that free agency costs money, but it doesn't mean you just have to give away big contracts because that's what it takes. If the guy isn't worth it, don't spend the money. You run into far more problems just throwing money at someone because you have it.

 

I went to Cot's and did a search of NL teams, and to me, a $15 AAV still is pretty big for all payrolls. There are only going to be so many each team has, and I don't want Fowler being one of the Cubs' three or four.

 

Here is a list of players making a $15 AAV between now and 2020. There will be a few more added over that time frame, when guys like Bryce Harper hit free agency. But guys like Jake Peavy also will fall off the list, so it might still even out.

 

Number of current players from each team making $15 or more for at least one season between 2015 and 2020.

 

Cardinals - 4

Reds - 2

Pirates - 0

Brewers - 1

 

Braves - 2

Miami - 1

Mets - 2

Phillies - 4

Nats - 4

 

D-Backs - 1

Rockies - 2

Dodgers - 5

Padres 3

Giants - 5

[Bryants Disco Ball]

Fowler is only an average at best player if you're convinced he's a -10 (or worse) defender.

 

I think it also has to be pointed out that Fowler has played six of his 7 1/2 baseball seasons in Colorado. Which probably hurt his defensive ratings but for sure helped his offensive numbers.

[CubColtPacer]

Fowler is only an average at best player if you're convinced he's a -10 (or worse) defender.

 

Average at best, sure. But I think the specific quote was slightly above average. Fowler seems like a reasonable peak upside 3.5 win player at this moment.

 

And going forward, I don't know how reasonable that upside is. He certainly could remain a 0 to +5 defensive player. But I don't see the 350+ BABIP being very likely in an age 30-33 contract, especially as his speed declines just a little. And those are the sorts of BABIP he has needed anytime he has been a 1 win or better offensive player. He obviously is hitting more fly balls this year which is helping his power, but that seems to mostly be a difference rather than a help so far.

 

Reasonable upside seems more in the 2.5 to 3 range going forward after this year. And there's a growing list of reasons why he might not hit that upside as the years go on.

[Guest]

You would think Fowler would be an above average defender, but the defensive metrics don't seem to show that (unless I'm reading them wrong).

 

stop being such a vodka shooting sierra mist chasing bandwagon fan and pay attention in the offseason

 

but seriously read this

 

http://www.cubsinsider.com/dexter-fowlers-defensive-woes-probably-overblown/

 

then this

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/29295/chicago-cubs-notes-kris-bryant-goes-deep-javier-baez-strikes-out-4-times

 

Maddon on Fowler: The Cubs manager has an idea on how Cubs centerfielder Dexter Fowler can elevate his defensive game but he’s not telling the public -- just Fowler.

 

“There’s one thing maybe he can get better at,” Maddon said. “That’s going to be an emphasis in this camp. I put it out there for him I think it’s in his abilities to win a gold glove.”

 

Incidentally, Maddon wants Fowler to play a deep center field but didn’t always think that way.

 

“The data suggests more extra base hits and more runs are taken away,” he explained. “I switched my thinking. I looked at the stuff and I was wrong.”

 

Then look at his UZR compared to years past

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4062&position=OF#fieldingadvanced

 

It might be too early to say for sure that the tide has been shifted but there definitely seems to be something there.

[downsr30]

I think you have to let Fowler walk unless he'll take a 2-year deal with what he's making now and that still scares me. His weapon is his speed and watching Michael Bourn lose his biggest strength as a speedster scares me off.

 

Austin Jackson on a 2 year deal doesn't sound terrible. Will Venable is a solid defender.

 

I just don't like the idea of ponying up money for offense at this position because the Cubs are well-served for offense at pretty much every other position. I think Russell could make a decent leadoff guy if we are pressing who is leadoff, but Coghlan did well in that role last year. Ultimately, I think we bring in a decent option that has a good defensive reputation and can hit OK or above-average, we take it.

 

 

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[davell]

I wonder how cheap Austin Jackson is next year? If he's cheaper than Fowler by a bunch, I'd go that direction. I kind of doubt that the FO is enamored with Span, unless they think his D is just positioning issues as well.

 

If it comes down to 4/60 or the FA class minus those 2, I'll take 4/60 all day long on Dex. I wanted Rasmus last offseason, but prefer Fowler to him.

[Guest]

I think you have to let Fowler walk unless he'll take a 2-year deal with what he's making now and that still scares me. His weapon is his speed and watching Michael Bourn lose his biggest strength as a speedster scares me off.

 

Austin Jackson on a 2 year deal doesn't sound terrible. Will Venable is a solid defender.

 

I just don't like the idea of ponying up money for offense at this position because the Cubs are well-served for offense at pretty much every other position. I think Russell could make a decent leadoff guy if we are pressing who is leadoff, but Coghlan did well in that role last year. Ultimately, I think we bring in a decent option that has a good defensive reputation and can hit OK or above-average, we take it.

 

 

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And guys like that cost at least around $15M a year.

[downsr30]

Austin Jackson wouldn't cost 15MM. Some depends on how he finishes this year, but I bet he signs a 2-3 year deal in the neighborhood of 18-27MM

 

 

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[downsr30]

Brett Gardner would be a comparison with a stronger profile and he received 4yr/52MM

 

 

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[Guest]

Brett Gardner never reached free agency.