2015 Bears Offseason (Foxy new Head Coach page 104)

[ctcf]

Serious question: Would you want the Bears to try and draft a QB at some point in this draft with an eye towards moving on from Jay when the guaranteed $$ is up?

Of course, why wouldnt anybody?

 

Just curious. Some folks could actually want to stick with Jay.

 

You could draft someone like C Jones in the 2-3rd and develop him for a couple of years and cut Cutler then

 

I've been contemplating this, but don't know enough about football to know if I'm being crazy.

[Guest]

More times than not I'd say the best/better teams win in the NFL and advance in the playoffs.

 

Evidence?

[Cubswin11]

More times than not I'd say the best/better teams win in the NFL and advance in the playoffs.

 

Evidence?

Last year, this year is shaping up to also happen again.

[Brian707]

And a follow up: Would you want the Bears to pursue a QB in rounds 1/2?

 

 

With the holes they have on this team? NO. Unless this was the 1983 or 2004 NFL draft.

[Brian707]

My take on playoff crapshoots, from most to least:

 

1. NHL

2. MLB

3. NFL

4. NBA

[Guest]

More times than not I'd say the best/better teams win in the NFL and advance in the playoffs.

 

Evidence?

Last year, this year is shaping up to also happen again.

 

This is about as in depth as I'm willing to go on this, which is admittedly rough at best but...

 

If, for the purposes of this exercise, we can agree that DVOA provides a decent ranking of teams...

 

2013 - SEA (1st in overall DVOA - record 13-3)

2012 - BAL (8th - 10-6)

2011 - NYG - (12th - 9-7)

2010 - GB (4th - 10-6)

2009 - NO (6th - 13-3)

2008 - PIT (4th - 12-4)

2007 - NYG (14th - 10-6)

2006 - IND (7th - 12-4)

2005 - PIT (4th - 11-5)

2004 - NE (2nd - 14-2)

 

 

Again, not much of a sample and leaves out what other teams did and how good they really were and such, so very quick and dirty, but looks like a pretty broad mix to me. Obviously, they all were good teams. Not many bad teams make the playoffs.

 

EDIT - And just to add in for fun...that 2007 Giants team (which was 1.9% over average) beat a team that was 53% over average. The second place team was Indy at 28.3% over average.

 

The 08 Steelers barely beat an Arizona Cardinals team that was 21st in DVOA (5% below average)

Edited January 15, 2015 by David

[UMFan83]

My take on playoff crapshoots, from most to least:

 

1. NHL

2. MLB

3. NFL

4. NBA

 

I would reverse NHL and MLB.

 

I mean in the NHL a couple of years ago, the conference finals consisted of the last 4 NHL champs. The Kings and Blackhawks have won 4 of the last 6 Cups and are among the favorites to win this year.

 

That said, there is definitely some crapshoot elements, especially in the early rounds where 8 seeds routinely upset 1 seeds. In fact I remember in 2010, the 4-6-7-8 seeds in the East all won their first round series. Also, occasionally you see an 8 seed get to the Cup Finals like the 2012 Kings and 2006 Oilers.

 

I still don't think it holds a cake to baseball where teams like the Braves can make the playoffs 14 years in a row and only win 1 championship.

 

So I guess the difference to me is that in hockey it seems like you can build a team to get deep in the playoffs many years like the Red Wings for so many years or more recently the Blackhawks whereas in baseball it doesn't seem to matter whether you win 100 games or 83, as long as you get in. Heck even having to play a single elimination game to get into the playoffs doesn't always seem to effect a team's odds.

Edited January 15, 2015 by UMFan83

[jersey cubs fan]

My take on playoff crapshoots, from most to least:

 

1. NHL

2. MLB

3. NFL

4. NBA

 

Are there many flukey, shouldn't even be there NHL teams winning the Stanley cup? Seems to me that despite the added hurdle of needing to win more and longer series, the past 8 or so in a row have all be excellent teams. While you get the occasional 8 seed, it's often the case that it was actually a great team that didn't have a great season (LAK).

 

You had almost an entire decade where only Detroit, Colorado and New Jersey won all the cups. You've had the same 5 dominant teams controlling the Cup for the past several years.

 

 

I think people in general overplay the crapshoot storyline. MLB is probably the most and it's not even a true crapshoot.

[jersey cubs fan]

Again, not much of a sample and leaves out what other teams did and how good they really were and such, so very quick and dirty, but looks like a pretty broad mix to me. Obviously, they all were good teams. Not many bad teams make the playoffs.

 

That's not broad at all. You had the Giants winning twice as outliers and that is it.

[jersey cubs fan]

anyway, this is boring, I am bored, stop boring me

[Guest]

Again, not much of a sample and leaves out what other teams did and how good they really were and such, so very quick and dirty, but looks like a pretty broad mix to me. Obviously, they all were good teams. Not many bad teams make the playoffs.

 

That's not broad at all. You had the Giants winning twice as outliers and that is it.

 

whatever you say boss

[Guest]

god the 07 patriots were so [expletive] good

[minnesotacubsfan]

My take on playoff crapshoots, from most to least:

 

1. NHL

2. MLB

3. NFL

4. NBA

 

Are there many flukey, shouldn't even be there NHL teams winning the Stanley cup? Seems to me that despite the added hurdle of needing to win more and longer series, the past 8 or so in a row have all be excellent teams. While you get the occasional 8 seed, it's often the case that it was actually a great team that didn't have a great season (LAK).

 

You had almost an entire decade where only Detroit, Colorado and New Jersey won all the cups. You've had the same 5 dominant teams controlling the Cup for the past several years.

 

 

I think people in general overplay the crapshoot storyline. MLB is probably the most and it's not even a true crapshoot.

 

 

Yea, NHL is predictable compared relative to MLB

 

 

I'd go:

 

NBA

NHL

NFL

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MLB

[Brian707]

My take on playoff crapshoots, from most to least:

 

1. NHL

2. MLB

3. NFL

4. NBA

 

I would reverse NHL and MLB.

 

I mean in the NHL a couple of years ago, the conference finals consisted of the last 4 NHL champs. The Kings and Blackhawks have won 4 of the last 6 Cups and are among the favorites to win this year.

 

That said, there is definitely some crapshoot elements, especially in the early rounds where 8 seeds routinely upset 8 seeds. In fact I remember in 2010, the 4-6-7-8 seeds in the East all won their first round series. I still don't think it holds a cake to baseball where teams like the Braves can make the playoffs 14 years in a row and only win 1 championship.

 

True, on baseball it probably is a bigger crapshoot

 

Speaking of 2010 NHL, that year while the 4-6-7-8 all won in the East those very same seeds lost in the West.

[UMFan83]

At least we can agree that the NBA Playoffs are like the anthesis of a crapshoot.

[Brian707]

At least we can agree that the NBA Playoffs are like the anthesis of a crapshoot.

 

 

In the last 30 years at least, I think only once(1999) a team lower than a #5 seed made the NBA finals.

[ctcf]

So it sounds like Fox has signed with the Bears.

 

EDIT: Or not http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/15/john-fox-to-chicago-not-a-done-deal-yet/

Edited January 15, 2015 by ctcf

[Guest]

And a follow up: Would you want the Bears to pursue a QB in rounds 1/2?

If Winston falls.

[ctcf]

Also:

 

Cardale Jones @CJ12_

Life changing decision at 4pm

[Guest]

At least we can agree that the NBA Playoffs are like the anthesis of a crapshoot.

Yeah, they are almost too little of a crapshoot.

[Guest]

Also:

 

Cardale Jones @CJ12_

Life changing decision at 4pm

No

[UMFan83]

At least we can agree that the NBA Playoffs are like the anthesis of a crapshoot.

 

 

In the last 30 years at least, I think only once(1999) a team lower than a #5 seed made the NBA finals.

 

I think the Rockets won the title as a 6 seed in 1995 but yeah overall the point is there are only like 4 teams that can win the title every year, sometimes less

[Tyrant]

More times than not I'd say the best/better teams win in the NFL and advance in the playoffs.

 

Evidence?

 

this study breaks down the randomness of the four majors sports and their playoffs:

 

http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2013/09/undeserving-champions-examining-variance-in-the-postseason/

 

not a huge surprise but there's still some reliability to the nfl playoffs.

[Guest]

Bernstein saying they probably won't have a PC until next week, possibly in deference to championship weekend.

 

Said Fox just wanted to go home and tie up his loose ends there...work on a coaching staff, etc.

[Banedon]

The Ryan Pace announcement was around 3pm. I'm guessing we'll hear an announcement from the Bears around then. Per Bernsie, tomorrow or Tuesday for a press conference most likely due to playoff games, Cubs convention, and the holiday on Monday.