BA's FSL Top 20 Prospects

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1. Tyler Glasnow, rhp, Pirates

2. JP Crawford, ss, Phillies

3. Daniel Norris, lhp, Blue Jays

4. Kyle Schwarber, of/c, Daytona (Cubs)

 

Age: 21. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 235. Drafted: Indiana, 2014 (1).

 

The No. 4 overall pick, Schwarber had the best debut of any 2014 draft pick, swatting 18 home runs over three levels. He did it while spending the most time in the pitcher-friendly FSL while learning a new position (left field) and still mixing in catching.

 

Schwarber combines terrific present strength with plus bat speed and an efficient swing. He has the plate discipline to dominate lower levels. As one league hitting coach put it, “When he impacts (the ball), it comes off different.”

 

League observers were mixed on Schwarber’s defense. Some thought he had a chance to catch, and the Cubs sent him to instructional league to work on catching exclusively. Others thought left field was his only option, but he runs well enough to make the outfield work.

5. Dalton Pompey, of, Blue Jays

6. Jose Berrios, rhp, Twins

7. Steve Matz, lhp, Mets

8. Josh Bell, of, Pirates

9. Orlando Arcia, ss/2B, Brewers

10. Justin O'Conner, c, Rays

11. Albert Almora, of, Daytona (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—Hialeah Gardens, Fla., 2012 (1).

 

Almora overcame a slow start by hitting .377 with four of his seven home runs in the first three weeks of July, earning a promotion to Double-A Tennessee. His raw tools sometimes pale in comparison to some of his Cubs peers, but FSL managers still liked him as a center fielder who profiles as a future everyday player, though not a star.

 

Almora is a rhythm hitter with a significant leg kick who tends to be streaky. “You get your timing by being ready to hit the fastball,” Daytona manager Dave Keller said. “We talk every day about hitting the fastball, and it was hard for him because pitchers were pitching him backwards, but he still had to be ready to hit the fastball.”

 

Almora started identifying offspeed pitches, which he saw in bunches, better as the year went on. The ability to make those adjustments, along with his bat speed, hand-eye coordination and strength, allow scouts to project him as an above-average hitter with average power. He has plenty of arm strength and tremendous defensive instincts that make him a plus center fielder as well. One scout said Almora’s upside resembles that of Aaron Rowand.

12. Dilson Herrera, 2b/ss, Mets

13. Jake Thompson, rhp, Tigers

14. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b, Twins

15. Aaron Judge, of, Yankees

16. Tyrone Taylor, of, Brewers

17. Brandon Nimmo, of, Mets

18. Billy McKinney, of, Daytona (Cubs)

 

Age: 20. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 195. Drafted: HS—Plano, Texas, 2013 (1).

 

The Cubs acquired McKinney, as well as high-profile shortstop prospect Addison Russell, from the Athletics in early July as part of the blockbuster Jeff Samardzija trade. While a shoulder injury limited McKinney to DH duty for much of August, he showed enough offensive ability in his FSL stint to make the top 20.

 

McKinney is a pure hitter who in his first full pro season showed the ability to slow the game down and have quality at-bats in all situations. He doesn’t fit a clean profile, because he’s not a burner or true center fielder, and his modest arm strength makes him a better fit in left field than right. He has bat-to-ball skills and a mature plate approach, and he could be a plus hitter who draws walks enough to hit leadoff, though his speed is just average.

 

Learning to loft the ball as he gains more experience will be the difference in whether McKinney is an impact corner bat or a player more along the lines of David Murphy.

19. Dwight Smith Jr., of, Blue Jays

20. Colin Moran, 3b, Mets

[Guest]

Ben (Lelan

d Grove): Do you see Schwarber starting off next year repeating High-A in their new Myrtle Beach affiliate, or is he ready for Double-A?

 

John Manuel: He has conquered A-ball with the bat. We’ll see how instructional league went and how he catches after he comes back from the offseason. It’s all going to depend on his glove and where he plays, because the level of conviction on his bat is frankly profound. I wish I had heard this level of conviction before the draft because we under-ranked him. This guy just flat hits and scouts who I’ve talked to for draft report cards all loved him as an amateur. He finished very well; two guys I talked to this past week about the regional at Indiana just couldn’t stop talking about how impressive Schwarber was there, how locked in, and then the FSL guys were the same. His manager, Dave Keller, compared him to Kris Bryant for his hitting and power, and he might be a better pure hitter than Bryant. I would guess he makes more consistent contact going forward. He could have ranked No. 1 on this list frankly. People just love the bat and the makeup. The defense though is the issue … No one is convicted to say he definitely will catch.

 

Frank (Chicago): Danny Vogelbach - still a 1B/DH only to you? Thoughts on his year?

 

John Manuel: Down year and yes, still just a 1B in a best-case scenario. I know there are others who disagree but the progress defensively or athletically wasn’t what had been hoped for, according to those I spoke to.

 

Tyler (san diego): Is Gioskar Amaya someone to watch? Scouts seemed to like him even after the poor season in '13. High OBP this year....

 

John Manuel: Had a better year this year, responded when they moved him to the 2-hole, that’s his profile. He also was more consistent defensively. Solid unspectacular prospect.

 

Tommy (IL): Is there anyone from the Daytona pitching staff that is worthy of genuine prospect status.

 

John Manuel: Yes, Zastryzny. He had a 9.39 ERA in the first inning, so finding a better pre-game routine and avoiding those bad starts in the future is a key for him getting better next year. But the 3.56 ERA in the second half shows you he had aptitude and got better as the year went on.

[jersey cubs fan]

because the level of conviction on his bat is frankly profound. I wish I had heard this level of conviction before the draft because we under-ranked him. This guy just flat hits and scouts who I’ve talked to for draft report cards all loved him as an amateur. He finished very well; two guys I talked to this past week about the regional at Indiana just couldn’t stop talking about how impressive Schwarber was there, how locked in, and then the FSL guys were the same

 

He's talked to scouts recently that are claiming they were high on Schwarber in college, or he talked to them while they were still in college?

[toonsterwu]

I know I've never been the highest on Almora, but a part of me hears "Aaron Rowand" and thinks ... eh? Of course, the logical part of me says that to get an Aaron Rowand type player is a solid outcome ... but still.

 

The Schwarber quotes sure make things exciting, and it would really open the door on options for the organization. If he's that good, that should open up opportunities for us, in a variety of ways. There's definitely no rush though ... keep him at the C/LF thing for the next year, and see how things go for him, and everyone else.

[Guest]

lol if he's a better hitter than bryant he can be pizza behind the plate for all i care

[JennieGarthAlgar]

lol if he's a better hitter than bryant he can be pizza behind the plate for all i care

 

Or pancakes even.

[Guest]

lol if he's a better hitter than bryant he can be pizza behind the plate for all i care

 

Or pancakes even.

 

Or waffles

[jersey cubs fan]

lol if he's a better hitter than bryant

 

There are few meaningless phrases in this game than "pure hitter".

[Guest]

lol if he's a better hitter than bryant

 

There are few meaningless phrases in this game than "pure hitter".

 

what i suspect they are referring to in this case, while trying not to knock bryant, is that he's considerably better at making contact, which he is. and he, too, appears to have absurd power.

 

not as much as bryant, but he might actually be able to use it better at the MLB level.

[Guest]

Harder to make a direct comparison because the levels and playing time don't match up great, but here you go:

 

                Bryant                               Schwarber
          PA   AVG/OBP/SLG   K%  BB%           PA   AVG/OBP/SLG   K%  BB%
Boise      77   354/416/692   22  10            24   600/625/1350   8   8 
Kane Cty                                        96   361/448/602   18  11
Daytona    62   333/387/719   27   5           191   302/393/560   20  14

 

EDIT: It's also worth noting how Schwarber ended at Daytona: 67 PA, .393/.418/.869, 14/4 K/BB

[apete6]

lol if he's a better hitter than bryant

 

There are few meaningless phrases in this game than "pure hitter".

 

what i suspect they are referring to in this case, while trying not to knock bryant, is that he's considerably better at making contact, which he is. and he, too, appears to have absurd power.

 

not as much as bryant, but he might actually be able to use it better at the MLB level.

 

If Schwarber can play defense at catcher at replacement level and his bat profiles even close to Bryant's expected output, he would probably be one of the top 3 WAR catchers in baseball, probably #1 in his prime years.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2014&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

That being said, I don't expect that to happen. If it does, though...

[shnsajax]

With his bat I would take a notch below average on defense.

[TruffleShuffle]

if he can hit like mike piazza, he can play catcher like mike piazza for all i care.

[craig]

lol if he's a better hitter than bryant

 

There are few meaningless phrases in this game than "pure hitter".

 

I sure like it when scouts say it about our guys, though.

 

Glad to hear that kind of talk for Schwarber and McKinney. Maybe Russell too?

[jersey cubs fan]

And Dave Kelton

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

brendan harris

[rawaction]

brendan harris

 

Albert Pujols comp

[Hairyducked Idiot]

lol if he's a better hitter than bryant he can be pizza behind the plate for all i care

 

Katie was a helluva wall on plays at the plate at the company softball games.

[ConstableRabbit]

brendan harris

 

Albert Pujols comp

From our good friend Rany, no less.

[craig]

And Dave Kelton

 

Did anybody other than Hendry and Fleita ever pump Kelton as a pure hitter? I don't recall BA or the greater scouting world ever being as buzzed about his hitting as Hendry was.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

he was a top 50 prospect pre-2002, so there must have been something to it.

[craig]

he was a top 50 prospect pre-2002, so there must have been something to it.

 

Don't need "pure hitter" scouting to make top-50 if you post .928 OPS in AA at age 21.

 

Reports don't have Almora as a "pure hitter", given his leg kick and balance problems, his problems with pitch recognition, his problems with breaking balls, and his problems pounding balls into the dirt. But if he comes up with a .900+ OPS at AA next year, like Kelton he'll be in the top-50, pure hitter or not. I wish! Doubtful, but maybe he will.

[TruffleShuffle]

And Dave Kelton

 

Did anybody other than Hendry and Fleita ever pump Kelton as a pure hitter? I don't recall BA or the greater scouting world ever being as buzzed about his hitting as Hendry was.

 

i think it was more that he had a "sweet swing" than he was a "pure hitter."

[Guest]

he was a top 50 prospect pre-2002, so there must have been something to it.

 

Don't need "pure hitter" scouting to make top-50 if you post .928 OPS in AA at age 21.

 

Reports don't have Almora as a "pure hitter", given his leg kick and balance problems, his problems with pitch recognition, his problems with breaking balls, and his problems pounding balls into the dirt. But if he comes up with a .900+ OPS at AA next year, like Kelton he'll be in the top-50, pure hitter or not. I wish! Doubtful, but maybe he will.

 

 

Doesn't almora have a decent shot at being top fifty right now? Doesn't seem like most of the publications are down on him.

[craig]

Doesn't almora have a decent shot at being top fifty right now? Doesn't seem like most of the publications are down on him.

 

There are ten full-season leagues. So on average, that on average five top-50 guys per league. Almora at 18th in Southern League and 11th in Florida State League, by BA's evals, isn't going to make top 50.

 

I think he's got a fair chance to stay top-100, at least in some lists. (BA's, for one.)

 

I was pretty encouraged, actually, that BA's lists still included him in top-20's for both FSL and SL. Kelton and Almora were both age 20 in their Daytona seasons, and both were ranked in the second ten. If Almora is already viewed as a top-20 guy in that league, and perhaps a top-100 guy overall, then IF he has a breakout hitting season at AA the way that Kelton did, I'd figure he could climb back into top-50 a year from now.

 

Personally I expect that will require two interconnected things: some kind of adjustment in swing plane or approach or something so that he can get the ball in the air more often, rather than hitting so many ground balls; and simply hitting more HR's and improving his HR-projection as perceived by evaluators.

 

We know he's not going to walk very much; and while he will almost certainly make some adjustments to increase his walk rate, that will inevitably come at the expense of striking out more often. Low walk/low-K guys never increase their walks without also jumping their K's.

 

But being a bat-speed guy, more of that bat-speed needs to turn into doubles and over-the-wall HR's, rather than so many fast-bat-speed ground balls. Offensive production on ground balls is never good, and he just hit too many grounders this year.

 

Offensively he's going to need to live on batting average and power; neither will be excellent at his 2014 ground ball rate.

 

9 HR's isn't a bunch. But, 9 HR's isn't bad for a 20-year-old on an off year playing a bunch in the FSL. Suppose he was to, say, jump that up to 15 HR's next year in AA. If I replaced 6 of his groundouts with 6 HR's this year, without changing anything else, then his OPS for the year would jump by 59 points and his OBP would slip up over .300. If he'd gone through FSL/SL this season with a combined .742 OPS instead of .683, I'd be a lot more optimistic.