BA's FSL Top 20 Prospects

[rawaction]

And Dave Kelton

 

Did anybody other than Hendry and Fleita ever pump Kelton as a pure hitter? I don't recall BA or the greater scouting world ever being as buzzed about his hitting as Hendry was.

 

i think it was more that he had a "sweet swing" than he was a "pure hitter."

 

Yeah, one of the prettier RH swings I've ever seen at the minor league level.

[jersey cubs fan]

And Dave Kelton

 

Did anybody other than Hendry and Fleita ever pump Kelton as a pure hitter? I don't recall BA or the greater scouting world ever being as buzzed about his hitting as Hendry was.

 

i think it was more that he had a "sweet swing" than he was a "pure hitter."

 

Yeah, one of the prettier RH swings I've ever seen at the minor league level.

 

He was very much described as a pure hitter.

[Guest]

Doesn't almora have a decent shot at being top fifty right now? Doesn't seem like most of the publications are down on him.

 

There are ten full-season leagues. So on average, that on average five top-50 guys per league. Almora at 18th in Southern League and 11th in Florida State League, by BA's evals, isn't going to make top 50.

 

I think he's got a fair chance to stay top-100, at least in some lists. (BA's, for one.)

 

I was pretty encouraged, actually, that BA's lists still included him in top-20's for both FSL and SL. Kelton and Almora were both age 20 in their Daytona seasons, and both were ranked in the second ten. If Almora is already viewed as a top-20 guy in that league, and perhaps a top-100 guy overall, then IF he has a breakout hitting season at AA the way that Kelton did, I'd figure he could climb back into top-50 a year from now.

 

Personally I expect that will require two interconnected things: some kind of adjustment in swing plane or approach or something so that he can get the ball in the air more often, rather than hitting so many ground balls; and simply hitting more HR's and improving his HR-projection as perceived by evaluators.

 

We know he's not going to walk very much; and while he will almost certainly make some adjustments to increase his walk rate, that will inevitably come at the expense of striking out more often. Low walk/low-K guys never increase their walks without also jumping their K's.

 

But being a bat-speed guy, more of that bat-speed needs to turn into doubles and over-the-wall HR's, rather than so many fast-bat-speed ground balls. Offensive production on ground balls is never good, and he just hit too many grounders this year.

 

Offensively he's going to need to live on batting average and power; neither will be excellent at his 2014 ground ball rate.

 

9 HR's isn't a bunch. But, 9 HR's isn't bad for a 20-year-old on an off year playing a bunch in the FSL. Suppose he was to, say, jump that up to 15 HR's next year in AA. If I replaced 6 of his groundouts with 6 HR's this year, without changing anything else, then his OPS for the year would jump by 59 points and his OBP would slip up over .300. If he'd gone through FSL/SL this season with a combined .742 OPS instead of .683, I'd be a lot more optimistic.

 

BA is only one list.

 

I don't see him dropping from any top 100s. I could be wrong, but between Law, McDaniel (is he with FG now?), and Parks (granted, I don't know what the new BP guy thinks of him, either) I don't recall any of the big prospect guys willing to be down on him very much at all. I'm not saying he won't drop, mind you...just that I don't think it's out of the question for him to be in the top 50 range on a list and have a hard time seeing him fall off any of the major 100s entirely.

 

Disclaimer - I'm going completely off the top of my head of what I remember the general sentiment being, so I could be totally wrong.

[craig]

Yeah, we'll see, he'll be an interesting one to see how the different evaluators place him.

 

Obviously minor-league prospect lists are fun for us, and fun to talk about. How one gets rated, of course, is pretty fluid, and how good the guy actually is as a major-leaguer is what counts.

 

When a guy is young-for-league, non-production is always forgiven to varying degree. But the "he's young" view only lasts so long for guys who don't actually become productive at some point. Almora will still be only 21 next summer at Tennessee, so still young per level. If he hits, and with power, 2014 will be immediately forgotten as a developmental year. But at 21 in his 4th pro season, I think the willingness of evaluators to dismiss non-production will diminish a lot. If he follows up non-productive 2014 with a so-so 2015, then I think people will be getting off the bandwagon fast.

[Guest]

I do think that if he does put a .900 OPS up next year in AA, he'd be much higher than just top 50.

[craig]

I do think that if he does put a .900 OPS up next year in AA, he'd be much higher than just top 50.

 

Definitely. .900+ he's top 20. If he reproduces his .605 OPS from this Tennessee, or his combined .684, he's off all "top" lists. In between those extremes, I'd probably kinda guess he's need to be at least .760 or better to stay top-100, and probably at least .820 or so for top-50? Beats me. I imagine he'll fall well between the awful and great extremes. I'm sure hoping he's nearer .850 than .700, though.