The Jon Lester Signs w/ Cubs - 6 yrs/$155 Million

[Guest]

Shouldn't we have signed him already? I mean...the celebration dinner is over, right? How late did those guys stay out?

 

Has to see if Atlanta has that crazy 8 year offer up its sleeve, first.

[NOLA]

Shouldn't we have signed him already? I mean...the celebration dinner is over, right? How late did those guys stay out?

He has committed, but still wants to take his official visits.

[Guest]

Shouldn't we have signed him already? I mean...the celebration dinner is over, right? How late did those guys stay out?

He has committed, but still wants to take his official visits.

I get it: free trips, good food and they always make the cute coeds available. Why not take the trips before announcing, right?

[Guest]

Shouldn't we have signed him already? I mean...the celebration dinner is over, right? How late did those guys stay out?

He has committed, but still wants to take his official visits.

I get it: free trips, good food and they always make the cute coeds available. Why not take the trips before announcing, right?

 

Wonder if PTR asked to sneak along.

[Sammy Sofa]

PTR already wrangled a bucket of fish heads; now he has to get home to feed Baez in the attic.

[Tyrant]

someone tell me how to filter out ptr jokes

[gscool89]

RT @nickcafardo: According to a mAjor league source the Red Sox offer to Jon Lester falls into $110-$120 range over six years.

[Guest]

RT @nickcafardo: According to a mAjor league source the Red Sox offer to Jon Lester falls into $110-$120 range over six years.

 

That is beatable by a large amount. Still just their first offer, though.

[gscool89]

I'd be shocked if Lester doesn't get at least 6/150 probably 6/160

[Deeg]

If that is indeed Boston's first offer Theo is getting a chance to put his 99% theory to the test. This is a real seriousness check for the Cubs.

[Backtobanks]

RT @nickcafardo: According to a mAjor league source the Red Sox offer to Jon Lester falls into $110-$120 range over six years.

 

I'd be shocked if Lester doesn't get at least 6/150 probably 6/160

 

The rumors all along have been $150+ million, so I have trouble believing they would waste everybody's time by offering $110-$120 million.

[KingCubsFan]

RT @nickcafardo: According to a mAjor league source the Red Sox offer to Jon Lester falls into $110-$120 range over six years.

 

I'd be shocked if Lester doesn't get at least 6/150 probably 6/160

 

The rumors all along have been $150+ million, so I have trouble believing they would waste everybody's time by offering $110-$120 million.

If Boston gets the sense that Boston is where he truly wants to be, they'll wait to see what the Cubs offer and then decide whether they want to match it or not. Kind of like how Anibal Sanchez used the Cubs.

[SouthSideRyan]

RT @nickcafardo: According to a mAjor league source the Red Sox offer to Jon Lester falls into $110-$120 range over six years.

 

I'd be shocked if Lester doesn't get at least 6/150 probably 6/160

 

The rumors all along have been $150+ million, so I have trouble believing they would waste everybody's time by offering $110-$120 million.

 

Cafardo is pretty good

[Guest]

Oh god, davearm is doing his crazy "there's no way agents tell other teams what other teams are bidding" thing again over at PSD

[Butterscup1679666578]

give him 6/180 if he signs within the next hour i dont care just get this done

[Clem Fandango]

Even at the high end of 6/120 that is ridiculously easy to beat. 6/150 is very palatable with the payroll we have. Offer 6/130 and see if he takes it. If he really likes Chicago more, the extra money should be all that matters to get it done. If he needs more than 6/130, give it to him.

[Deeg]

My over/under was about $150 over 6 years, so anything at that level or less doesn't seem outlandish to me. If it's a question of the average annual salary and Lester does sign for the highest offer (as Theo has promised us is 99% likely) there really isn't any good reason for the Cubs to lose him. Is an extra $6 or even $12 million over six years going to dramatically tie Theo's hands? Of course not. It's a question of whether he's ready to get out of the kiddie pool or not.

 

The flipside, of course, is what happens if it goes to 7 years. That would be a very hard pill to swallow. I doubt the Red Sox go there, but someone might. And if Lester is going to be swayed to go someplace besides Boston if that really is his first choice, I would think that extra year would be a lot more enticing to him than a small difference in average salary.

[Guest]

I'm curious, what level of production do people expect from Lester? He'll decline over the course of his contract, but there's a number of starting points that can change how palatable that decline is. Here's a quick table of his recent history for reference.

 

       ERA    FIP   xFIP   fWAR  bWAR  RA9WAR
2011  3.47   3.83   3.62    3.5   4.4    4.6
2012  4.82   4.11   3.82    3.2   0.7    1.4
2013  3.75   3.59   3.90    4.3   3.0    3.9
2014  2.46   2.80   3.10    6.1   4.6    5.8
2015* 3.42   3.42     -     3.4    -      -

*Steamer Projection

[Splendid Splinter]

I'm curious, what level of production do people expect from Lester? He'll decline over the course of his contract, but there's a number of starting points that can change how palatable that decline is. Here's a quick table of his recent history for reference.

 

       ERA    FIP   xFIP   fWAR  bWAR  RA9WAR
2011  3.47   3.83   3.62    3.5   4.4    4.6
2012  4.82   4.11   3.82    3.2   0.7    1.4
2013  3.75   3.59   3.90    4.3   3.0    3.9
2014  2.46   2.80   3.10    6.1   4.6    5.8
2015* 3.42   3.42     -     3.4    -      -

*Steamer Projection

 

 

I'm thinking low 3s ERA. That'll put him in the 4-5 bWAR range? Something like Garza in '11. If he goes to the Cubs, he probably would see an uptick on his #s from moving to the NL.

[UMFan83]

@DYST_Now: SOURCE: An NL team is preparing a 6yr 144 million offer for Jon Lester. Cubs, Cardinals and Braves have all contacted him.

 

Have no idea who that is but a couple of Cubs people like Julie DiCaro re tweeted it

 

Edit: apparently it's a Syracuse newspaper

[Deeg]

FWIW, Curt Schilling (he's a douche, but he did play with Lester) just tweeted that he thinks Lester ends up with the Cubs "unless he dislikes the schedule (absolute possibility)".

[Cubswin11]

FWIW, Curt Schilling (he's a douche, but he did play with Lester) just tweeted that he thinks Lester ends up with the Cubs "unless he dislikes the schedule (absolute possibility)".

WTF does that mean? I'd give him the benefit of the doubt he's trying to say something about preferring AL/NL but he's a buffoon.

Edited November 20, 2014 by Cubswin11

[Hairyducked Idiot]

FWIW, Curt Schilling (he's a douche, but he did play with Lester) just tweeted that he thinks Lester ends up with the Cubs "unless he dislikes the schedule (absolute possibility)".

WTF does that mean

 

Day games, I assume

[Deeg]

FWIW, Curt Schilling (he's a douche, but he did play with Lester) just tweeted that he thinks Lester ends up with the Cubs "unless he dislikes the schedule (absolute possibility)".

WTF does that mean

 

Day games, I assume

 

Yes, day games.

[bhogg]

Clearly he should keep in mind that that he'd start opening night, so there's one less day game he'd have to pitch.