Offseason Trade Ideas

[Guest]

To a mid-market or small-market team that's trying to contend, Valbuena could be attractive as a secondary piece. If there's one with several high-ceiling arms, there could be a match. That's why this whole notion that "he's not good enough to fetch the kind of arm we need, so he's too good to trade" doesn't hold water. There's no reason Valbuena has to be the headliner to be a useful trade asset.

 

What does that trade look like? What team is both looking to contend but also is trading away a pitcher good enough that Valbuena needs to be included, but so good that he's not the best player coming back from us? Again, you're outlining a scenario that in practice is extremely narrow.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm sorry, but no one has said to trade Valbuena in a one for one deal. A package of Valbuena and others starting from Almora on down can definitely add pitching that's better than what we have.

 

What team is making this deal that wouldn't prefer another prospect over Valbuena?

 

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

 

Valbuena holds value for us, there's no question. But I'm not keeping him because I'm scared of a future injury. He's going to be lucky to get 300-350 at bats next year. His value is never going to be higher than now, if its POSSIBLE to trade him and prospects for pitching, I hope like hell we do it. If not, I've obviously got no issue keeping him, because he IS good insurance. But I'm confident enough that our infield is going to be good without him, so if he can help net a good pitcher, then I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

300-350 at-bats of him is worth 1-2 wins. We should be aiming for a season next year where 1-2 wins is very important.

[davell]

I'm sorry, but no one has said to trade Valbuena in a one for one deal. A package of Valbuena and others starting from Almora on down can definitely add pitching that's better than what we have.

 

What team is making this deal that wouldn't prefer another prospect over Valbuena?

 

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

 

Valbuena holds value for us, there's no question. But I'm not keeping him because I'm scared of a future injury. He's going to be lucky to get 300-350 at bats next year. His value is never going to be higher than now, if its POSSIBLE to trade him and prospects for pitching, I hope like hell we do it. If not, I've obviously got no issue keeping him, because he IS good insurance. But I'm confident enough that our infield is going to be good without him, so if he can help net a good pitcher, then I'd do it in a heartbeat.

 

300-350 at-bats of him is worth 1-2 wins. We should be aiming for a season next year where 1-2 wins is very important.

 

Am I advocating dealing him for trash or guys that aren't contributing next year?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Am I advocating dealing him for trash or guys that aren't contributing next year?

 

I don't know. AFAICT, you're advocating for a scenario in which a team wants to contend so they *must* have Luis Valbuena in a deal, but also they don't mind giving up a starting pitcher that is an upgrade over the Hendricks/Turner/Wood set. I don't think such a team exists.

[sneakypower]

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

you probably won't want to compare Olt's stats to Baez's so far

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Long-term answers aren't the only thing that matters. Short-term answers are important too.

[squally1313]

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

you probably won't want to compare Olt's stats to Baez's so far

 

Yeah I obviously know the pedigrees are a little different, but I spent a depressing 10 minutes this morning switching back and forth from Baez's Fangraphs page and Olt/Vitters/BJax's FG page. Let's hope these next 100 or so PAs show that progress he's made at every other level.

[davell]

Toronto, Detroit, KC, and Muami are the 4 teams I've got in mind for Valbuena.

[davell]

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

you probably won't want to compare Olt's stats to Baez's so far

 

You're better than that.

[Guest]

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

you probably won't want to compare Olt's stats to Baez's so far

 

You're better than that.

 

he's allowed to. he's never been super high on javy.

[jersey cubs fan]

Valbuena is the type of player the Cubs would go after, because his actual value is probably higher than his perceived value as a non-everyday guy. He still holds value to the Cubs who should want to be good in 2015 but may not have all their kids performing quite yet. I really question the type of trade that would make sense for the Cubs to give him up.

[Guest]

I could maybe see Valbuena getting involved in a Porcello deal, although I'm not sure if his ceiling is high enough to make him worth it over the alternatives. The others appear to be teams with young studs that just aren't going to be traded if they want to compete(Ventura, Stroman), or guys who are not good enough or not proven enough to be worth trading Valbuena + other assets of significance instead of going with our incumbents(Eovaldi, Norris, Duffy, Ray,etc).

[sneakypower]

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

you probably won't want to compare Olt's stats to Baez's so far

 

You're better than that.

you should know that i've wanted Baez traded like a hundred times by now, if he's being viewed as future superstar by other teams

 

is it also not worth mentioning that the scourge of baseball, Junior Lake, had better offensive production

[davell]

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

you probably won't want to compare Olt's stats to Baez's so far

 

You're better than that.

you should know that i've wanted Baez traded like a hundred times by now, if he's being viewed as future superstar by other teams

 

is it also not worth mentioning that the scourge of baseball, Junior Lake, had better offensive production

 

Ah OK. Yeah, we're just in different worlds with Javy.

[davell]

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

you probably won't want to compare Olt's stats to Baez's so far

 

You're better than that.

you should know that i've wanted Baez traded like a hundred times by now, if he's being viewed as future superstar by other teams

 

is it also not worth mentioning that the scourge of baseball, Junior Lake, had better offensive production

 

Oops, didn't think it went thru first time.

[sneakypower]

Ah OK. Yeah, we're just in different worlds with Javy.

he could be a 4-win guy next year, or he could be sub-replacement

 

the reality of the latter possibility is more than reason enough to hang onto Valbuena

[davell]

I could maybe see Valbuena getting involved in a Porcello deal, although I'm not sure if his ceiling is high enough to make him worth it over the alternatives. The others appear to be teams with young studs that just aren't going to be traded if they want to compete(Ventura, Stroman), or guys who are not good enough or not proven enough to be worth trading Valbuena + other assets of significance instead of going with our incumbents(Eovaldi, Norris, Duffy, Ray,etc).

 

Yeah, I had a Porcello deal in mind. Same with Eovaldi, Duffy, and Hutchison. Personally, I look at them as upgrades from anyone other than Arrieta for us longterm. And in each case, they'd help out in 2015.

[davell]

Bourn or Swisher for E-Jax? Arguello mentioned them and Cleveland needs innings eaters. I think I'd be in favor of either.

[Guest]

Bourn is probably a better fit than Upton, since he's left handed and hasn't forgotten how to hit completely. In that sense it's maybe a lower likelihood that he bounces back to be starter material(Bourn declining v. Upton just being broken/fixable), but depending on your usage for either that's not necessarily a bad thing. This looks to be an outlier defensive year for him, and with even last year's average defense he's about a 1 win player in 375 PA. Nothing terribly exciting, but a good target for Jaxon that can spot-start for other RH OFs like Soler/Bryant.

[Cubswin11]

Bourn or Swisher for E-Jax? Arguello mentioned them and Cleveland needs innings eaters. I think I'd be in favor of either.

Swisher just had surgery on both his knees. Idk if he can play any position other than 1B/DH at this point

[Bull]

I'm sorry, but no one has said to trade Valbuena in a one for one deal. A package of Valbuena and others starting from Almora on down can definitely add pitching that's better than what we have.

 

And I'm sorry, but it's not exactly a fantasy to think that between Javy, Castro, KB, and Russell-we've got our longterm answers at 2B, SS, and 3B. If I were bringing up the Olts or Villanuevas of the world, then sure.

 

Valbuena holds value for us, there's no question. But I'm not keeping him because I'm scared of a future injury. He's going to be lucky to get 300-350 at bats next year. His value is never going to be higher than now, if its POSSIBLE to trade him and prospects for pitching, I hope like hell we do it. If not, I've obviously got no issue keeping him, because he IS good insurance. But I'm confident enough that our infield is going to be good without him, so if he can help net a good pitcher, then I'd do it in a heartbeat.

This is what I was trying to say. His value is at it's highest -rightnow-. If another GM is willing to pay full price, or at least more than what he's worth to the cubs next year (trading from a strength to a weakness), do it!

 

Is infield power a strength? I think it is. When Rizzo, Bueno and Castro are top 35 in the nl in slg. regardless of position, and Baez and Bryant are in the wings, I think it is.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This is where the stock-market metaphor falls apart and baseball players are actually players who help you win baseball games and not assets to be sold at top price.

[davell]

This is where the stock-market metaphor falls apart and baseball players are actually players who help you win baseball games and not assets to be sold at top price.

 

No clue what utility guys are out there, but I feel rather confident one can be had. It's not like the 1-2 WAR from Valbuena has to be lost.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This is where the stock-market metaphor falls apart and baseball players are actually players who help you win baseball games and not assets to be sold at top price.

 

No clue what utility guys are out there, but I feel rather confident one can be had. It's not like the 1-2 WAR from Valbuena has to be lost.

 

I hope we get one *and* keep Valbuena, keeping Watkins and Olt in Iowa.

[davell]

This is where the stock-market metaphor falls apart and baseball players are actually players who help you win baseball games and not assets to be sold at top price.

 

No clue what utility guys are out there, but I feel rather confident one can be had. It's not like the 1-2 WAR from Valbuena has to be lost.

 

I hope we get one *and* keep Valbuena, keeping Watkins and Olt in Iowa.

 

No one expects either of those 2 to be much, but you're going to Hendry away money for no reason at all.

 

I listed 4 pitchers I'd use Valbuena as part of a deal for. As TT said, it's not exactly like there's a ton of guys to even consider. But we could sign Lester, trade Valbuena and something that doesn't hurt us to deal, for Porcello, and go sign a backup IF. The team is much better off that way than sitting on Valbuena and just adding Lester to the rotation.