Offseason Trade Ideas

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I thought it might be interesting to have a thread for floating the different trade ideas people come up with, and to hear if others think they're good deals, realistic, etc. This will only really work if people are both constructive and nice, so please be both.

 

I'll start. While some of the deals listed may naturally be linked together, try to consider each on their individual merits.

 

 

Coghlan to the Yankees for J.R. Murphy - The need is clear, backup catcher is a dumpster fire, there's no immediate internal options, and FA doesn't look any better. Murphy is a young guy with a bunch of team control and good pedigree(2nd rd pick) that has done the job in limited time. He grades out as a decent pitch framer and his bat has played enough in MiLB to think he can avoid being an offensive disaster at the MLB level. For the yankees, Murphy is caught in a numbers game. He can't break the MLB roster with McCann and Cervelli around, and Gary Sanchez is coming over the top of him too, to speak nothing of Austin Romine also middling around in AAA. They're losing Soriano, Ichiro, and Johnson from this year's OF bench options, and while Coghlan isn't an ideal fit on a team with Beltran, Gardner, and Ellsbury on board, it's a small price to pay to get a guy who can swing the bat and keep Zoilo Almonte from siginificant playing time next year.

 

Wada to the Royals for Jarrod Dyson - Dyson hasn't been a full time outfielder, but that's okay because he's still been plenty valuable and I wouldn't ask him to play 150 games either. He's under team control for 3 more seasons still, and his combination of elite defense and a LH bat that can hold its own is a nice match with the following trade. The Royals have a free rotation spot for next year and no good internal options. Trading older and less important half of their CF platoon to get a guy who fits their profile of SP acquisitions and should provide some steady production for a couple more years seems like a reasonable swap

 

Jackson to the Braves for B.J. Upton and 15 milion dollars - This has been discussed before so I won't belabor it. Jaxon has been real bad, with a new team and coaching staff maybe they can straighten him out into an averageish starter, even if he never reaches his 3+ win peak. Same things can be said about Upton, who has been a disaster in Atlanta but still has talent to at least be a contributor in CF if not a star. How the 15 million is collected doesn't matter to me, if I'm the Cubs no matter when it's collected I'm applying it all to the 2017 payroll.

 

Alcantara to Minnesota for Kyle Gibson and Trevor May - This is the one that gives me the most pause, which should be obvious because the other guys I'm trading aren't nearly as good/important. Minnesota's rotation is already crowded for next year. Hughes, Nolasco, Meyer, and Milone are already staking claims to spots, Pino has some decent perirpherals, Pelfrey comes back from injury at some point, etc. Trading for Mendy allows them to move Santana to SS and shore up their infield, and he seems like the type of player they'd really value so I'm less concerned about them wanting to trade for a CF with Buxton on the way. Plenty of room for both in that OF, although admittedly this could be a deal that benefits from a 3rd team. From a Cubs perspective, this would obviously be contingent on something like the above 2 deals happening. For giving up on Alcantara they get Gibson, who I feel would be primed for a breakout in an organization that actually values strikeouts from pitchers. May is another arm with good stuff to add to the rotation mix. He also has options so he's potentially more valuable as a 6th or 7th SP than some of the current depth.

[Boris]

B.J. Upton?

[davell]

Great idea for the thread, TT. I'm not a fan of the Alcantara deal, even though I've been scouring for a basic swap of him for a pitcher myself and can't come up with one.

 

Love the Coghlan/Murphy swap. Makes sense for both teams.

[Guest]

I'm not a fan of the Alcantara deal, even though I've been scouring for a basic swap of him for a pitcher myself and can't come up with one.

 

Yeah, there's not a great fit out there at the moment. I thought about making something for Ross + Maybin work with San Diego, but they have Fuentes coming too. The Mets could use outfielders, but the benefit of Alcantara might be muted with Lagares doing his best Death to Flying Things impression. It really seems like a deal that could best be arranged with a 3rd team like the Trumbo/Skaggs/Eaton deal, but I haven't made it that far yet.

[davell]

I've got no idea how SD values Grandal, but with Rivera playing well and Hedges coming soon, I've got to figure Grandal can be had. Stealing from TT, maybe a deal starting with Wada? Send them Olt if he plays better in September.

 

For young pitching, I keep looking at Tampa, but them trading for Franklin complicates things a bit.

[CarolinaCubFan]

I was getting my hopes up for Daniel Norris when the Samardzija rumors where flying.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's hard to frame an Alcantara trade because it creates as many holes as it fills, and how they fill that resulting hole is as important as who they get back for him.

 

The only trades I really want to see is excess prospects for something awesome.

[davell]

The holes we have- C, OF, SP

 

Excess or tradeable parts anyway- Coghlan, Valbuena, Ruggiano, Alcantara, Olt, Wada, Wood, E-Jax, Rondon, Strop, Wright, all minor leaguers outside of KB and Russell.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Not sure about the Alcantara deal, as I'm not familiar with those guys. But really not a fan of the Wada one. I'd really like to keep him, as we really have no sure things in terms of pitching. Even if we did acquire one front end and another successful reclamation, we still would need more depth. Wood's a pretty safe bet as a 4-5 guy, but beyond that, Arrieta has his injury history, and between Wada, Doubront, Turner, Hendricks, and Straily, we could just as easily end up with a rotation full of reclamation studs as a dumpster full of bargain-bin busts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The holes we have- C, OF, SP

 

Excess or tradeable parts anyway- Coghlan, Valbuena, Ruggiano, Alcantara, Olt, Wada, Wood, E-Jax, Rondon, Strop, Wright, all minor leaguers outside of KB and Russell.

 

Can't agree on Valbuena or Alcantara being expendable. Valbuena especially is an ideal utility guy. Nor are any of the relievers expendable.

[Little Slide Rooter]

The holes we have- C, OF, SP

 

Excess or tradeable parts anyway- Coghlan, Valbuena, Ruggiano, Alcantara, Olt, Wada, Wood, E-Jax, Rondon, Strop, Wright, all minor leaguers outside of KB and Russell.

 

Castillo's a year off a 4.5 WAR season, and the OF and Rotation may be full of question marks, but I wouldn't call them holes. There's really no reason to trade guys just for the sake of trading them. We should be focusing on a few big deals. Operating like a small market team has been an eye opening experience, and has gotten us where we are. While I'm all for stocking up on reclamations when available, but it's about time for this sleeping giant to wake up and start beating it's chest.

[Guest]

But really not a fan of the Wada one. I'd really like to keep him, as we really have no sure things in terms of pitching. Even if we did acquire one front end and another successful reclamation, we still would need more depth. Wood's a pretty safe bet as a 4-5 guy, but beyond that, Arrieta has his injury history, and between Wada, Doubront, Turner, Hendricks, and Straily, we could just as easily end up with a rotation full of reclamation studs as a dumpster full of bargain-bin busts.

 

If we acquire 2 starters like you mention, we'd have those two, Arrieta, Jackson, Wood, Wada, Hendricks, Turner, Doubront, and Straily for a total of 10 starting pitchers. Hendricks, Straily, and Wada are the only ones that could be sent to AAA.

 

Depth is good, you want depth. Right now we have depth, and if you add more to it(like most people want to), you're going to end up in a position where you create next year's Bonifacio by DFAing the losers in late March if you don't pare down the list a little. Wada makes a good trade candidate because he's not a good relief candidate, he's having MLB success now, and his age is such where you aren't expecting more than a couple more quality seasons from him. Keeping him is perfectly fine, but if you're adding to the rotation, somebody(or several somebodies) need to be outgoing too.

[davell]

The holes we have- C, OF, SP

 

Excess or tradeable parts anyway- Coghlan, Valbuena, Ruggiano, Alcantara, Olt, Wada, Wood, E-Jax, Rondon, Strop, Wright, all minor leaguers outside of KB and Russell.

 

Can't agree on Valbuena or Alcantara being expendable. Valbuena especially is an ideal utility guy. Nor are any of the relievers expendable.

 

As you said, it's opening a hole to fill a different one. I'd rather keep Alcantara. Valbuena has serious value to us as well moving forward. Obviously I'm not selling low on them, if I were to deal either. Rondon? I love the guy. With his injury history, possible shot at selling very high? Again, not advocating it, just wondering if that's not possible. The other pen guys I mentioned, we can replenish from within or thru FA.

[Little Slide Rooter]

But really not a fan of the Wada one. I'd really like to keep him, as we really have no sure things in terms of pitching. Even if we did acquire one front end and another successful reclamation, we still would need more depth. Wood's a pretty safe bet as a 4-5 guy, but beyond that, Arrieta has his injury history, and between Wada, Doubront, Turner, Hendricks, and Straily, we could just as easily end up with a rotation full of reclamation studs as a dumpster full of bargain-bin busts.

 

If we acquire 2 starters like you mention, we'd have those two, Arrieta, Jackson, Wood, Wada, Hendricks, Turner, Doubront, and Straily for a total of 10 starting pitchers. Hendricks, Straily, and Wada are the only ones that could be sent to AAA.

 

Depth is good, you want depth. Right now we have depth, and if you add more to it(like most people want to), you're going to end up in a position where you create next year's Bonifacio by DFAing the losers in late March if you don't pare down the list a little. Wada makes a good trade candidate because he's not a good relief candidate, he's having MLB success now, and his age is such where you aren't expecting more than a couple more quality seasons from him. Keeping him is perfectly fine, but if you're adding to the rotation, somebody(or several somebodies) need to be outgoing too.

 

But there's no reason to trade him just to trade him. If somebody were to offer a legit prospect, then yes. As for what we have, I see Arrieta as at least a legit 2-3. As for the rest, Wood could be an above average 4 starter, but also a trade candidate, leaving Turner and Doubront, who have the higher ceilings, but also lower floors. Wada and Hendricks I see as best case scenario 3-4 starters, worst case scenario, decent enough 5. As for Straily, I have my doubts that he's any more or less likely to stick in a big league rotation than Beeler, Rusin, or Rhee.

 

With this in mind, Wada shouldn't be so much trying to earn a rotation spot next spring as other guys are working to force him out, making him a candidate to shop at the end of ST rather than winter.

[Guest]

But there's no reason to trade him just to trade him.

 

Do you think I just pulled out a random number generator to get a name for the other half of the trade? Also, there's no such thing as a 'candidate to shop at the end of ST'.

[Guest]

Well, let me think about things this way...

 

Positional Status:

 

C) Castillo

1B) Set

2B) Set

3B) Set (Valbuena to start, Bryant next, Russell/Castro)

SS) Set

LF) (Coghlan/Ruggiano)

CF) Alcantara

RF) Set

 

I can't see the Cubs doing anything at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS or one corner OF spot. I could see them working to upgrade at LF, CF or C.

 

Rotation:

 

Arrieta

Hendricks

Wood

Jackson

Wada

Doubront

Straily

Turner

 

I think the Cubs will want to add one more top of the rotation pitcher, but they really do not need to target depth. I could see them adding a veteran who is willing to sign a minor league contract, but I do not see them adding a Feldman/Hammel type guy this year. In addition to the above names, there's still the possibility that they convert Grimm or Ramirez back to the rotation, too.

 

Bullpen:

 

Rondon

Ramirez

Grimm

Strop

Wright

Parker

Rivero

Vizcaino

Starters who don't make rotation

 

Assuming Ramirez and Grimm stay in the pen, that is a very dep, very solid group. I could see the team wanting a second lefty for the pen, but I think it is set other than that.

 

Offseason goals (not in order!):

 

1) Upgrade top of the rotation

2) Utilize excess assets at bottom of rotation to shore up other areas

3) Improve backup catcher

4) Add another Lefty to the pen

5) Add an outfielder

 

How the team goes about those things probably depends on how things go in FA.

 

Scenario 1) Cubs sign Lester and FA OF (Tomas, Markakis, etc)

 

Having filled the top two needs already, the Cubs are free to trade some of the depth for more minor pieces such as backup catcher and a pen lefty. In this scenario, I think Jackson gets dealt for as much salary relief as can be attained to help pay for the free agents. The C and LHP are likely acquired by trading some combination of Wood / Straily / Doubront / Wada / Coghlan / Ruggiano.

 

With some guesses at how the battles for jobs shake out, we get:

 

Castillo / Rizzo / Baez / Castro / Valbuena (Bryant) / Tomas / Alcantara / Soler

 

Lester / Arrieta / Hendricks / Turner / Wood

Rondon / Ramirez / Grimm / Strop / Wright / Rivero / second lefty

 

After listing it out, there's a good chance that Doubront may fill a combination of long man / second lefty role.

 

Scenario 2: No big FA signings

 

This is where it's more interesting. If the Cubs whiff on Lester, I think they'll aggressively pursue a trade for a pitcher they think can be added to the top of the rotation.

 

Trade 1: Castro for Matt Harvey

 

There's been a lot of smoke about a Cubs/Mets trade involving Castro and pitching, so this one isn't especially creative. But it is hard to see adding a more talented pitcher than Harvey. The Mets need a shortstop and there have been rumblings that Harvey and the team are not happy with one another.

 

In this scenario, I think the Cubs will do everything possible to leave Bryant in the infield. So they would need to acquire an OF or go with the platoon again.

 

Trade 2: Edwin for BJ Upton

 

If nothing else, this gives us another CF-capable fielder. Until Russell is ready, we could play Baez at SS and Alcantara at 2B or let Renteria mix and match between 2B and the OF to get Valbuena some starts, as well.

 

Castillo / Rizzo / Valbuena / Baez / Bryant / Upton / Alcantara / Soler

 

Harvey / Arrieta / Hendricks / Turner / Wood

Rondon / Ramirez / Grimm / Strop / Wright / Rivero / second lefty

 

This scenario probably ends up pissing me off, because if we lose out on Lester and don't sign any FA OF, I really think we end up with a payroll of around $65M. It would still be a really fun team, though.

 

I'll have to play with this more when I've got time to actually look at the little trades and additional scenarios.

[davell]

Grandal for Wada and Strop

 

Alex Cobb for Almora and Hendricks

[davell]

I've seen lefty, veteran, on base type, and lead off hitter all mentioned....

 

Carl Crawford for E-Jax, with Dodgers eating most or all of the difference seems to fit nicely. All the way down to him playing LF, leaving Alcantara in CF next year.

[Guest]

I think it's difficult to foresee Harvey getting traded. They're going to want to value him like his past self(because otherwise it make sense to keep him and trade one of their many other arms), and the Cubs are going to discount his value because he hasn't gotten all the way back from TJS and also f pitchers. Personally, I'd need more than Harvey to trade Castro. Something centered around Alcantara and Wheeler could be interesting though.

 

Grandal for Wada and Strop

 

Alex Cobb for Almora and Hendricks

 

I don't know if the Rays would value Almora enough to make something like that happen. I'm almost to the point where using Hendricks to upgrade SP incrementally may not be worth the effort either.

 

Grandal is interesting, not sure how I feel about him yet. My initial reaction is that I don't think trading Strop is all that great an idea. We have a lot of depth at RP, but not a lot that has shown itself to be MLB quality for long stretches(more than a year) like Strop has.

[Guest]

I've seen lefty, veteran, on base type, and lead off hitter all mentioned....

 

Carl Crawford for E-Jax, with Dodgers eating most or all of the difference seems to fit nicely. All the way down to him playing LF, leaving Alcantara in CF next year.

 

With as bad as Crawford has been(near replacement 3 of 4 years, sub-.310 OBP 3 of 4 years) and as old as he is(just turned 33), I'd rather just sign Markakis in that scenario. You get everything you mentioned without having to hope that Tampa Crawford is walking through that door.

[Tryptamine]

I wouldn't mind moving Edwin for McCann provided McCann keeps his mouth shut. Gary Sanchez should be ready in the not to distant future and the Yankees are going to have to fill 2 if not 3 rotation slots.

[Tryptamine]

Grandal for Wada and Strop

 

Alex Cobb for Almora and Hendricks

 

If you can land Cobb for Almora and Hendricks, please do it immediately.

[Tryptamine]

What in addition Alcantara would it take to land Leonys Martin and Derek Holland? I'd be absolutely great about a rotation like Lester/Arrieta/Holland/Hendricks/whoever.

[rawaction]

Upton is much more likely to not be useless than Crawford. And can play CF, which I think is a necessity because we don't know how Alcantara will hit long term (largest sample size of the struggling rookies) and it gives the Cubs flexibility to make trades if necessary.

 

Also what incentive do the Rays have to trade Cobb?

[sneakypower]

the time to trade Alcantara was after we signed Rusney Castillo, but that didn't happen, so here we are stuck with a valuable piece already in place for a while