2015 Rotation

[Guest]

Arrieta, Turner, Hendricks, Straily, Wood

 

midseason trade for TOR starter

i should have stated in this i'm overly confident Turner and Straily will be at least league-average

 

the new inefficiency can be a staff full of #3s

 

sure, that's an inefficiency, but once you hit the playoffs, those guys are facing off against aces.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Arrieta, Turner, Hendricks, Straily, Wood

 

midseason trade for TOR starter

i should have stated in this i'm overly confident Turner and Straily will be at least league-average

 

the new inefficiency can be a staff full of #3s

 

sure, that's an inefficiency, but once you hit the playoffs, those guys are facing off against aces.

 

So?

[Guest]

Arrieta, Turner, Hendricks, Straily, Wood

 

midseason trade for TOR starter

i should have stated in this i'm overly confident Turner and Straily will be at least league-average

 

the new inefficiency can be a staff full of #3s

 

sure, that's an inefficiency, but once you hit the playoffs, those guys are facing off against aces.

 

So?

 

then you lose.

[George Hayduke]

Arrieta, Turner, Hendricks, Straily, Wood

 

midseason trade for TOR starter

i should have stated in this i'm overly confident Turner and Straily will be at least league-average

 

the new inefficiency can be a staff full of #3s

 

sure, that's an inefficiency, but once you hit the playoffs, those guys are facing off against aces.

 

So?

 

then you lose.

 

Unless you have above average hitting to combat that good pitching.

[Guest]

 

Unless you have above average hitting to combat that good pitching.

 

that's the idea, but the Dodgers have that too and they have Kershaw who will beat you twice no matter who you throw up to the plate.

[Guest]

essentially, it's not all about finding inefficiencies, some times you have to be inefficient to win.

[Guest]

Not all pitchers of the same caliber are created equal. Some of them are Kyle Hendricks maximizing every bit of their skillset to be that productive, other times they're pre-2014 Edwin Jackson who has terrific stuff but is inconsistent in command. A rotation full of Kyle Hendricks would be not so good for a playoff series, a rotation with one Hendricks and several others with pretty good or better stuff is fine when your strength is offense.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Arrieta, Turner, Hendricks, Straily, Wood

 

midseason trade for TOR starter

i should have stated in this i'm overly confident Turner and Straily will be at least league-average

 

the new inefficiency can be a staff full of #3s

 

sure, that's an inefficiency, but once you hit the playoffs, those guys are facing off against aces.

 

So?

 

then you lose.

 

I don't think history bears that out.

[Guest]

well, you can check the wiki page

[Guest]

i guess it would really depend upon the amount of chance that affects pitching vs. hitting. Which one is more susceptible to variance?

[George Hayduke]

Not all pitchers of the same caliber are created equal. Some of them are Kyle Hendricks maximizing every bit of their skillset to be that productive, other times they're pre-2014 Edwin Jackson who has terrific stuff but is inconsistent in command. A rotation full of Kyle Hendricks would be not so good for a playoff series, a rotation with one Hendricks and several others with pretty good or better stuff is fine when your strength is offense.

 

There's no magic formula. Winning is a combination of run scoring and run prevention. The favored team is going to be the one with the best net combination of pitching, defense, and offense. That principle doesn't change in October; if anything, the comparative quality of each becomes less important in the postseason because in a short series anything can happen. If the Cubs fielded a team with top notch offense and shut down defense and were able to make the playoffs with a rotation full of Kyle Hendricks' who will keep you in most games but rarely be absolutely dominant, I'd have no reason to believe they wouldn't have as much of a chance in the playoffs as anyone.

 

That said, any team that's good enough to contend is probably going to have at least league average pitching. But a rotation jam packed with aces isn't necessary for a successful playoff run.

[Guest]

Don't forget Neil Rameriz. He's due to come off the 15 day DL.

 

Brandon McCarthy does nothing for me and I think Lester will cost too much. Is Tseng too far away?

 

If everything goes well, the soonest I see Tseng in the big leagues is the second half of 2016.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

and that's assuming mid-season promotions or skipping a level entirely.

[SouthSideRyan]

and that's assuming mid-season promotions or skipping a level entirely.

 

And health :/

[Guest]

and that's assuming mid-season promotions or skipping a level entirely.

 

Split Daytona and Tennessee next year. Start at Tennesse for a month in 2016, then Iowa for three months and then the bigs.

 

and that's assuming mid-season promotions or skipping a level entirely.

 

And health :/

 

That's the biggest thing I thought of when I said, "If everything goes well."

[TruffleShuffle]

history does bear out that power pitching tends to win in the playoffs. (as do teams that have a strong bullpen)

[Guest]

Sign Lester this offseason.

 

That's all I want.

[sneakypower]

Not all pitchers of the same caliber are created equal. Some of them are Kyle Hendricks maximizing every bit of their skillset to be that productive, other times they're pre-2014 Edwin Jackson who has terrific stuff but is inconsistent in command. A rotation full of Kyle Hendricks would be not so good for a playoff series, a rotation with one Hendricks and several others with pretty good or better stuff is fine when your strength is offense.

i haven't given up on the Doug Fister fantasy yet, and that guy was pretty sweet in the playoffs (going off memory)

 

but yeah, that doesn't apply to this conversation much

[George Hayduke]

history does bear out that power pitching tends to win in the playoffs. (as do teams that have a strong bullpen)

 

Is this true? I thought it had been pretty well disproven.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

history does bear out that power pitching tends to win in the playoffs. (as do teams that have a strong bullpen)

 

Is this true? I thought it had been pretty well disproven.

 

BP retracted Secret Sauce

[A New Era]

Not all pitchers of the same caliber are created equal. Some of them are Kyle Hendricks maximizing every bit of their skillset to be that productive, other times they're pre-2014 Edwin Jackson who has terrific stuff but is inconsistent in command. A rotation full of Kyle Hendricks would be not so good for a playoff series, a rotation with one Hendricks and several others with pretty good or better stuff is fine when your strength is offense.

 

There's no magic formula. Winning is a combination of run scoring and run prevention. The favored team is going to be the one with the best net combination of pitching, defense, and offense. That principle doesn't change in October; if anything, the comparative quality of each becomes less important in the postseason because in a short series anything can happen. If the Cubs fielded a team with top notch offense and shut down defense and were able to make the playoffs with a rotation full of Kyle Hendricks' who will keep you in most games but rarely be absolutely dominant, I'd have no reason to believe they wouldn't have as much of a chance in the playoffs as anyone.

 

That said, any team that's good enough to contend is probably going to have at least league average pitching. But a rotation jam packed with aces isn't necessary for a successful playoff run.

 

If we are talking about pitchers of Hendricks talent level I agree. However I do believe in pitcher variety. I wouldn't want to throw 3 RH in a row that all threw 90 MPH.

[TruffleShuffle]

history does bear out that power pitching tends to win in the playoffs. (as do teams that have a strong bullpen)

 

Is this true? I thought it had been pretty well disproven.

 

the last i saw, there was a good correlation between teams with hard-throwing front line pitchers, and playoff success. teams with softer tossing starters tended to fare more poorly. i forget where i read it, though.

[George Hayduke]

Not all pitchers of the same caliber are created equal. Some of them are Kyle Hendricks maximizing every bit of their skillset to be that productive, other times they're pre-2014 Edwin Jackson who has terrific stuff but is inconsistent in command. A rotation full of Kyle Hendricks would be not so good for a playoff series, a rotation with one Hendricks and several others with pretty good or better stuff is fine when your strength is offense.

 

There's no magic formula. Winning is a combination of run scoring and run prevention. The favored team is going to be the one with the best net combination of pitching, defense, and offense. That principle doesn't change in October; if anything, the comparative quality of each becomes less important in the postseason because in a short series anything can happen. If the Cubs fielded a team with top notch offense and shut down defense and were able to make the playoffs with a rotation full of Kyle Hendricks' who will keep you in most games but rarely be absolutely dominant, I'd have no reason to believe they wouldn't have as much of a chance in the playoffs as anyone.

 

That said, any team that's good enough to contend is probably going to have at least league average pitching. But a rotation jam packed with aces isn't necessary for a successful playoff run.

 

If we are talking about pitchers of Hendricks talent level I agree. However I do believe in pitcher variety. I wouldn't want to throw 3 RH in a row that all threw 90 MPH.

 

Yeah, I just meant 5 average quality starters (not necessarily 5 with exactly Hendricks' profile).

[Guest]

history does bear out that power pitching tends to win in the playoffs. (as do teams that have a strong bullpen)

 

Is this true? I thought it had been pretty well disproven.

 

the last i saw, there was a good correlation between teams with hard-throwing front line pitchers, and playoff success. teams with softer tossing starters tended to fare more poorly. i forget where i read it, though.

 

sounds like the secret sauce thing by BP (was it Silver?) which kyle says has been retracted

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Which sucked, because I liked the idea:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12085

 

:(