2014 Cubs Pick Discussion

[A New Era]

so who's stance does Kyle Schwarber's stance remind you of? I think they mentioned it on the draft show or at least someone somewhere did but I forgot where I read it. I like it.

 

[Guest]

so who's stance does Kyle Schwarber's stance remind you of? I think they mentioned it on the draft show or at least someone somewhere did but I forgot where I read it. I like it.

 

I like the Giles comp

[Guest]

What is slot, about 4.2 mil? I think the best case scenerio is the get him for 3.0 and are able to sign one more highly rated guy they grabbed on day 3. The likely scenerio is as you have mentioned probably somewhat of an underslot and they will still get Cease, Sands, and Steele. And everyone in rounds 1-10 actually.

 

I don't know if having to pay Schwarber 3.5 mil or so means he automatically now so much more talented than if he agreed to 3.0 mil.

 

$4.621 million.

 

All sorts of good information in this post here.

[Cubswin11]

so who's stance does Kyle Schwarber's stance remind you of? I think they mentioned it on the draft show or at least someone somewhere did but I forgot where I read it. I like it.

 

I like the Giles comp

So do I. I think I saw mostly Giles comps a few Kubel and Kruk ones too

[CubsWin]

http://ccdt.webs.com/

 

In case some missed it at the bottom of the page, this is the preeminent place to see Cubs signing info. Yagyu, from PSD, created this and I asked him if I could post it here as well.

 

Sounds like Schwarber is in obviously. Zagunis is, Sands too.

 

Based on Twitter, sounds like Norwood(7th) is in. Mitchell is in(13th). Griggs is in.(12th)

 

With plenty of others sounding positive as well.

Thanks, davell! Great page!

 

1st - Schwarber will sign and soon.

2nd - Nothing officially yet on Stinnett, but he's a senior.

3rd - Zagunis has signed for $615,000 (a little over $100,000 under slot)

4th - An MLB.com reporter who focuses on the draft and prospects tweets Sands is "really looking forward to signing".

5th - Two tweets saying Justin Steele doesn't want to say anything until he is officially signed which implies he will seriously entertain the idea and could be currently in negotiations.

6th - Nothing on Cease yet, but from @sahadevsharma: McLeod on the HS arms taken in rounds 4-6: We took them in those rounds because we feel confident that we will be able to get them signed.

7th - Norwood was quoted in an article as saying “I always thought I’d go on and play pro ball. I just can’t wait to start this part of my life.”

8th - Nothing on junior LHP Tommy Thorpe yet.

9th - RHP James Farris is a senior, but nothing on twitter yet.

10th - In response to a Cubs fan welcoming him to the team, Ryan Williams said "Thank you! I couldn't be more excited for this opportunity to play for this organization." He's also a senior.

 

Outside of the top ten:

 

11th - Jordan Brink tweeted this out "Nice to wake up today as a Cubs fan!! Draft fun is over, time to work."

12th - Tanner Griggs appears to be a done deal after tweeting "Man I'm too blessed I'm officially a member of the Chicago Cubs organization".

13th - Athletic prep 3B Kevonte Mitchell also appears to be in the fold after a sports anchor from Cape Girardeau, MO tweeted "Just spoke with Kennett's @_KevonteM and he says he will forgo his scholarship to @SEMObaseball and sign with the Chicago Cubs". The coach at the college Mitchell had committed to also tweeted "Best of Luck to Semo signee @_KevonteM who will be signing with the Chicago Cubs to start his professional career."

15th - Jeremy Null posted the following on twitter: "thanks to everyone for the love and support, excited to become a member of the Chicago Cubs organization!"

16th - College junior and shortstop Jason Vosler tweeted "Thank you to everybody who has reached out to me, it really means a lot. Real excited to start this new journey of my life!"

19th - Virginia Tech Senior RHP Brad Markey was quoted in an article saying “We’re really excited,” Markey said. “We’re hoping we’re going to be on the same [minor league] team.” He's referring to Cubs' 3rd round selection Mark Zagunis who was his battery mate at VT.

20th - College senior SS Alex Tomasovich tweeted "Extremely grateful for the opportunity the @Cubs have given me to continue chasing my dream #GoCubsGo"

21st - Maryland OFer and junior Charles White posted to twitter "Awesome day-One win away from Omaha and picked up by the hometown team."

22nd - Brian Murphy, a sportswriter for the Idaho Statesman tweeted this interesting tidbit on Joey Martarano: "Martarano's dad told me pre-draft: "The Ideal situation would be the Cubs take him. ... We're crossing our fingers for that deal."

25th - Senior college C Tyler Pearson posted this on twitter "Blessed and excited to be given the opportunity to continue my baseball career with the Chicago Cubs! I appreciate all the support! #cubbies".

27th - Usually a prep player taken this late is a longshot to sign. There are two articles out on CF Calvin Graves being drafted by the Cubs. This quote from his high school coach is vague: "Another childhood dream came true today and we are so proud of the work ethic and determination Calvin showed throughout his career," said head coach Jayson King. "He will make the Cubs' organization better both on and off the field, as he is a first-class person and teammate." A second article doesn't quote anyone but makes a straightforward statement that could be a mistaken assumption "The 799th overall pick likely will report to the Arizona League or the Class A short-season Boise Hawks of the Northwest League", but who knows...

31st - Prep RHP Brad Depperman tweeted this encouraging but still vague message yesterday "Thankful for the Cubs giving me the opportunity to play professional baseball! So excited to see what future holds for me." It could mean nothing but at least it wasn't what fellow Floridian and top prep prospect Keith Weisenberg posted "Excited for the opportunity to play in the PAC-12 for @StanfordBSB".

35th - Purdue LHP Jordan Minch appears to be signed very shortly. Yesterday he tweeted that he hated airports and posted a pic on instagram (ain't the internet grand...) of a new hat he couldn't wait to purchase. http://instagram.com/p/o_mIObDv6y/

[RynoRules]

Looks like we will be getting almost everyone in shortly. Good stuff.

[craig]

http://ccdt.webs.com/In case some missed it at the bottom of the page, this is the preeminent place to see Cubs signing info. Yagyu, from PSD, created this and I asked him if I could post it here as well.

….

27th - Usually a prep player taken this late is a longshot to sign. There are two articles out on CF Calvin Graves being drafted by the Cubs. ..…….

 

Thanks for nice summary, CubsWin. One correction, Graves is a 23-year-old college senior, so the Cubs will sign him if they want him.

[weis21]

Here's a piece on Cubs 10th round selection, Ryan Williams, from our student newspaper. Both of these guys writing the article are a couple of my Journalism advisees.

[craig]

3rd day picks:

*14 college. (4 seniors, 9 juniors, 1 sophomore, the Purdue lefty).

*4 J2 (junior college guys, 20 years old now or will turn so in July)

*11 HS

*1 Martarano, he's 19.

 

My signing predictions:

*1 of the one Martarano

*1 of the eleven HS pick. Kevonte Mitchell, 13th round.

*3 of the four JC picks

*11 of the 11 college picks. #11 Jordan Brink is the only obvious iffy one here.

 

Thinking:

1. Assuming they sign everybody in the top-10, signing 16 3rd-day guys would get them to 26 signings total. Last year they signed 25, so that seems to be a reasonable guess for how many college guys they needed to select for organizational roster-fill.

2. I assume if they figured they needed more guys for roster-fill, they'd have drafted a couple more college guys in the last dozen. They can always roster-fill with undrafted college FA's.

3. I hope I'm underestimating, and they sign a couple of extras. Some variables:

 

Jordan Brink, college junior, pick #11. He generally seemed to have scouted as better than 11th round, and BA had him #164. I'd think he'd decline $100K slot, and should choose to go back and get into >$200K range next year. But, the Cubs knew what their budget situation was following friday. With the fourth pick on Saturday, they should have been going for the best value available, with value analysis factoring signability. If he's expecting $250 and they can't overslot, for example, I don't think they'd draft him their. So, probably either they talked to him and knew he is willing to sign for $100K slot, for whatever reason; or else they decided he was appealing enough that they'll just pull $100K from the Cease money in order to get Brink. If Cease really wants to sign, losing $100K Brink cash isn't likely to change the Cease decision.

 

HS Austin Willis 18th round: After Kevonte Mitchell, who was known to be singable, the only HS picks prior to the #28-40 range were Austin Willis at 18 and Isaiah Gilliam at 23. McLeod has already said they don't expect to sign Gilliam. But 18 is a place in the draft where they typically draft guys they think they can sign. By Niggemeyer and following at 28-40, those are mostly just flyers, or Cease-backup draft-and-follow guys, or "scout's choice" range. Anybody top-250 taken in the 28-40 range, you really aren't expecting to sign them. But in 18th Willis is different. And he's not a BA top-500 guy, so it's not certain that he's expecting $300+ K. So I assume they maybe drafted him "early" because either they like him quite a bit and wanted to make sure he'd be there as Cease-failure backup, or else because they think he may be signable with overslot they may have available.

 

J2 Zayas (round 29) and Petrino (round 39): Probably not realistic that both sign. Iffy whether either will. Zayas had some former reputation, and he lasted till the "flyer" rounds. He had enough reputation that signing for $100K slot might be dumb? Petrino as a 39th rounder, if he's good and slot-signable he'd not be lasting till 39th. Maybe he's just a roster-fill guy, so getting to go pro plus get $100K will be a no-brainer for him. But if he actually has ambitions and talent, probably take another try next time.

[davell]

Willis is on the fence and is thinking things through.

[Guest]

Jason McLeod discusses the Cubs draft: http://thegamechicago.com/2014/06/08/jason-mcleod-discusses-cubs-draft-picks/

[cubbyvirus00]

Jason McLeod discusses the Cubs draft: http://thegamechicago.com/2014/06/08/jason-mcleod-discusses-cubs-draft-picks/

 

yuck, The Game hosts are so boring

[davell]

Jason McLeod discusses the Cubs draft: http://thegamechicago.com/2014/06/08/jason-mcleod-discusses-cubs-draft-picks/

 

Pretty informative piece. Soler's a few weeks away. Schwarber will be catching some and playing OF.......

 

Did I hear that right? 15 area scouts and 8 cross checkers? Seems awfully low on the number of area scouts, doesn't it?

[Guest]

MKPJ (Chicago): Nick, please clear this up for Cub fans: Is Schwarber athletic enough to survive in Left Field? Much appreciated.

 

Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Personally, I don't think so. I know evaluators who argue that point, but to me it's less about whether or not he could possibly handle it, and more about whether he could actually make for a better option than your other MLB options to fill LF. The Cubs have Almora, Soler, and Bryant all as high level prospects that could fit into the outfield, and I can't see Schwarber as a better option than any of them, no matter how much I like the bat. He can really hit though. Really. Hit.

 

clark (family truckster): Who were the tough signs the Cubs landed that prompted them to go with under slot guys in the first two rounds? Worth it?

 

Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: They went with three potential overslot prep arms that will all require over-slot bonuses based on where they were drafted. If they get all three I applaud the process (even if they aren't the three I'd personally go after based on evaluations and valuations). If they sign two of the three I think it's a defensible process, but more complicated than they needed. If they only get one, it probably wasn't a good approach.

 

The early round overslots were Sands, Steele, and Cease.

 

David (Malibu): Nick, how far under slot do you think the Cubs went with Schwarber/Stinnett to feel comfortable in taking Sands/Steele/Cease in 4,5,6.

 

Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: They have about $1.1 MM in slot value to spend on the three prep arms (Sands/Steele/Cease). They grabbed a couple hundred thousand in savings later in the top ten, most likely. They probably need somewhere between 1.5 and 2 MM in savings with their first two picks to get those three kids inked. Could be a little more or a little less depending on a couple of important factors (which we can revisit once we see how the talks go.

 

MKPJ (chicago): Did the Cubs make a huge mistake passing on Reid-foley in favor of Stinnett? Is Stinnett a good prospect? Thanks

 

Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: I think Reid-Foley would have meant only one, MAYBE two, of the later HS arms. So the question is Reid-Foley and one or two of Sands/Cease/Steel vs Stinnett/Sands/Cease/Steele. Comes down to whether you think Stinnett is a legit mid-rotation guy (as opposed to future reliever/back-ender) and what your takes are on the health of Reid-Foley and Cease.

 

For me personally, I probably prefer Reid-Foley and Sands to Stinnett and the extra HS arm I get. Again, evaluative preference as opposed to questionable process.

 

Bill (New Mexico): Who's your prediction for the highest draftee who will remain unsigned because of the spending cap?

 

Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: One of the Cubs three prep arms (Sands/Steele/Cease) or maybe Reetz? That's based on profile and not inside info as to specific demands (let's not start unnecessary rumors, folks!).

 

Scott (Lincolnshire): In your opinion did the Cubs try to get too cute and outsmart themselves with their strategy? Or, did they do a ton of homework (maybe illegally) in getting the rounds 2-5 guys to commit to signing with them?

 

Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: If you really like Stinnett, I don't think it's too cute. The problem with the approach is other teams got really aggressive, as well, so in my opinion the Cubs didn't necessarily end up with the three best overslot options. The worst I'd say about it is that it was dependent upon the right guys slipping and being available. That's the problem with casting a wide overslot net as opposed to having extra early round picks to flex on that front.

 

Matt (Chicago): Nick, the Cubs have had three "pitching heavy" drafts in a row now. Based on early results from the first two, they have very little to show from a developmental standpoint. Is there a scouting/process problem or should I just give it some more time?

 

Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: More time. Let's see how the in-system arms progress after another year or so. I think Stinnett will be a good case study, as that's a high leverage pick ($ and opportunity) that the decision makers spent on Stinnett. Pretty important data point for me, personally.

[CubsWin]

http://ccdt.webs.com/In case some missed it at the bottom of the page, this is the preeminent place to see Cubs signing info. Yagyu, from PSD, created this and I asked him if I could post it here as well.

….

27th - Usually a prep player taken this late is a longshot to sign. There are two articles out on CF Calvin Graves being drafted by the Cubs. ..…….

 

Thanks for nice summary, CubsWin. One correction, Graves is a 23-year-old college senior, so the Cubs will sign him if they want him.

Thanks, Craig. I jumped down one line and put Niggemeyer's birthdate with Graves. Thanks for the catch.

[ScrubMD]

MKPJ (Chicago): Nick, please clear this up for Cub fans: Is Schwarber athletic enough to survive in Left Field? Much appreciated.

 

Draft Wrap Chat with Nick J. Faleris: Personally, I don't think so. I know evaluators who argue that point, but to me it's less about whether or not he could possibly handle it, and more about whether he could actually make for a better option than your other MLB options to fill LF. The Cubs have Almora, Soler, and Bryant all as high level prospects that could fit into the outfield, and I can't see Schwarber as a better option than any of them, no matter how much I like the bat. He can really hit though. Really. Hit.

 

Struggling in A ball and far from a sure thing, hasn't been healthy for more than a few weeks at a time, and still at 3B - has not played a game in OF. I don't like this guy's reasoning.

[Guest]

Jack Flaherty signed with the Cardinals. Well over slot but no other details released yet.

[Clem Fandango]

TRAITOR!

[Guest]

Nick Gordon signs, over slot too.

[Clem Fandango]

Nick Gordon signs, over slot too.

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/rP83eSG.gif

[ScrubMD]

Why does that upset you?

[Guest]

Maryland was eliminated by Virginia tonight so Jake Stinnett and Charles White are free to sign. No other Cub draft picks are still playing.

[Clem Fandango]

Why does that upset you?

 

Raisin is posting other teams picks news in the Cubs picks news, so I'm being marginally humorous by pretending they were our picks and now they're signing with other teams.

[toonsterwu]

I was too busy this weekend to follow the draft all that closely, so I just wanted to put in some pointless 2 cents ...

 

a) I was pleased with how the draft went. The arm upside potential seems better than last year's crop. It's a decidedly thin crop on positional assets. Thinking back to 2012, I think I'm as intrigued with this crop of arms as I am with the that crop, and that crop had the benefit of having 3 arms picked in the top 67. That said,

 

b) I sure would like to fast forward 3-4 years to see how this class turns out. This seems to be a very boom/bust class. I do love Carson Sands potential, though.

 

c) The Zagunis pick still bothers me a bit (I keep thinking that there's similarities to Micah Gibbs). I get it, catchers are a premium, and the draft rules means that you have to have multiple strategies in place depending on what players are available, and drafting Zagunis lead to the flexibility to go after some arms later.

 

d) I really hope Stinnett pans out. I'm alright with it, but they did pass on some intriguing arms. He worked out of jams against UVA, but wasn't dominant, IMO, in the SR's. Still, the raw potential is good, and here's hoping the GB tendencies hold.

 

e) With the report that Rodon was 2nd on the Cubs board, I would be fascinated to see what their plans were. I just wonder if Stinnett and Zagunis were fallback options due to guys going off the board.

 

f) I hate this system. I really do. It irks me tremendously. Part of it is just the idea that teams have to develop a strategy on how to attack the draft due to money as much as talent, but then have to wait a long time to see if any of their targets are there. I've always been a proponent that teams should be able to trade picks. Now, I think there are logistical issues, but now that the picks have value, it gives some baseline for teams to trade picks. This has less to do with the Cubs, although I do wonder what might've happened if they had been able to deal down, or heck, even deal up from the 2nd round.

 

Anyhow, nothing original, just random thoughts I wanted to get out.

[UK1679666180]

Jason McLeod discusses the Cubs draft: http://thegamechicago.com/2014/06/08/jason-mcleod-discusses-cubs-draft-picks/

 

Pretty informative piece. Soler's a few weeks away. Schwarber will be catching some and playing OF.......

 

Did I hear that right? 15 area scouts and 8 cross checkers? Seems awfully low on the number of area scouts, doesn't it?

 

Its similar with the area guys but above avg. with the national guys. 8 is pretty high.