Samardzija trade rumors

[A New Era]

extend shark

trade hammel

buy the absolute best FA OF this offseason

fill holes with minors via mixture of trade and promotion

 

our farm is ready.

[ScrubMD]

extend shark

trade hammel

buy the absolute best FA OF this offseason

fill holes with minors via mixture of trade and promotion

 

our farm is ready.

 

I like this, but I would change best FA OF to best FA pitcher, because I really don't think there are any big FA position players worth signing.

 

Extend Samardzija

Trade Hammel

Sign a TOR pitcher

Trade for an OF

 

We should have money for Samardzija, FA pitcher, and still be able to take a bit of salary in a trade.

[Guest]

Yeah, there should be money for 3 decent sized acquisitions for next year, salary-wise.

 

- a ~20M/year player. This could be Samardzija w/ extension, or someone from the Scherzer/Masterson/Lester group. Taking Matt Kemp's salary in return for very little player cost is another (unlikely) example.

 

- a ~15M/year player. This could be Samardzija w/ extension(unlikely, unless you're super duper backloading so the 15M stuff is for several years), probably a guy like Maeda, Shields, E. Santana, or Liriano, or maybe someone like Colby Rasmus if he has a strong 2014.

 

- A ~10M/year (or less) player. This could be any number of players, from an OF like Markakis to the next Hammel/Feldman(De La Rosa? Billingsley?), maybe someone like Aoki or Weeks, it's hard to get too much of a handle for that market on May 12th. Samardzija on his 3rd year arb deal fits here too, as do a number of potential trade targets(I still really like Cameron Maybin).

 

If you manage those acquisitions right(and it doesn't have to be pigeonholed like that, maybe they like three 15M guys), combined with the return on Hammel, a potential return on Samardzija, the ascension of one or more of Alcantara, Baez, Bryant, and Soler sometime in 2015, they can do pretty well for themselves. It sure would've been easier to do if they had already filled one of those this past offseason though.

[d_money]

I really don't want to hear from the FO that pitching is our greatest need...and then proceed to trade our top pitcher.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, there should be money for 3 decent sized acquisitions for next year, salary-wise.

 

They're not going to do that.

[SouthSideRyan]

And Max Scherzer isn't signing for 20M/Y

[Guest]

Yeah, there should be money for 3 decent sized acquisitions for next year, salary-wise.

 

They're not going to do that.

 

They have too many guys under team control that are at least somewhat worthy of a roster spot starting next year, so something will have to give. Remember, keeping Samardzija in any capacity is counted there. So pulling a Garza and holding on to him, signing another pitcher like Maeda(who fits their age bracket but isn't the prize SP of this class like Tanaka), adding an OF for stability(I like Markakis and I'd bet they do too) and maybe another smaller move(which I won't attempt to predict because we're 125 games away and guys like Lake/Arrieta/Olt/AA/Baez/Bryant/Soler could have very different 2015 expectations by October) would approximate the same spending commitment as signing Masterson, Rasmus, and going to arb with Shark.

[d_money]

Based on the top 5 ticket prices in MLB, one would think they'll have to break the mold and actually execute, signing their desired FA at whatever price is required

[davell]

We're stuck in perennial hell. If the offers are close or the same, why would Scherzer pick a non contender? Because Javy(if he figures out AAA) and KB are still both going to be in the minors or have such a small sample size, that they aren't going to be able to be counted on.

 

Our only way, in my opinion, to get a Scherzer next offseason is to strike early on a Markakis type AND make a trade that nets us a very solid major league piece as well. To "prove" that we're going to become much more active.

 

Even then, we have to wade through the total aversion to NTC's, that can cause a serious discrepancy that needs to be addressed.

[Cubswin11]

We're stuck in perennial hell. If the offers are close or the same, why would Scherzer pick a non contender? Because Javy(if he figures out AAA) and KB are still both going to be in the minors or have such a small sample size, that they aren't going to be able to be counted on.

 

Our only way, in my opinion, to get a Scherzer next offseason is to strike early on a Markakis type AND make a trade that nets us a very solid major league piece as well. To "prove" that we're going to become much more active.

 

Even then, we have to wade through the total aversion to NTC's, that can cause a serious discrepancy that needs to be addressed.

Agreed and that piece may need to be a Stanton/Cargo level acquisition to show our intentions, imo. Assuming, like you said, we aren't willing to blow all offers out of the water with length, dollars, NTC's, etc.

[Soul]

I really don't want to hear from the FO that pitching is our greatest need...and then proceed to trade our top pitcher.

 

+ like a million.

[Guest]

We're stuck in perennial hell. If the offers are close or the same, why would Scherzer pick a non contender? Because Javy(if he figures out AAA) and KB are still both going to be in the minors or have such a small sample size, that they aren't going to be able to be counted on.

 

Our only way, in my opinion, to get a Scherzer next offseason is to strike early on a Markakis type AND make a trade that nets us a very solid major league piece as well. To "prove" that we're going to become much more active.

 

Even then, we have to wade through the total aversion to NTC's, that can cause a serious discrepancy that needs to be addressed.

 

It's not something to ignore, but you're overstating things a bit. Of the top 10 FA contracts from last season, guys signed with Seattle, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Baltimore, and the Mets.

[jersey cubs fan]

We're stuck in perennial hell. If the offers are close or the same, why would Scherzer pick a non contender? Because Javy(if he figures out AAA) and KB are still both going to be in the minors or have such a small sample size, that they aren't going to be able to be counted on.

 

Our only way, in my opinion, to get a Scherzer next offseason is to strike early on a Markakis type AND make a trade that nets us a very solid major league piece as well. To "prove" that we're going to become much more active.

 

Even then, we have to wade through the total aversion to NTC's, that can cause a serious discrepancy that needs to be addressed.

 

It's not something to ignore, but you're overstating things a bit. Of the top 10 FA contracts from last season, guys signed with Seattle, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Baltimore, and the Mets.

 

In the case of Seattle at least, they blew away the competition in the offer, sort of negating the point.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, there should be money for 3 decent sized acquisitions for next year, salary-wise.

 

They're not going to do that.

 

They have too many guys under team control that are at least somewhat worthy of a roster spot starting next year, so something will have to give. Remember, keeping Samardzija in any capacity is counted there. So pulling a Garza and holding on to him, signing another pitcher like Maeda(who fits their age bracket but isn't the prize SP of this class like Tanaka), adding an OF for stability(I like Markakis and I'd bet they do too) and maybe another smaller move(which I won't attempt to predict because we're 125 games away and guys like Lake/Arrieta/Olt/AA/Baez/Bryant/Soler could have very different 2015 expectations by October) would approximate the same spending commitment as signing Masterson, Rasmus, and going to arb with Shark.

 

I'm somewhat concerned that you and I had this same discussion last year (so few spots to fill, so much money freed up, and I agreed) and we wound up with nothing, and apparently only "tried" on one player who we fell woefully short on.

[davell]

We're stuck in perennial hell. If the offers are close or the same, why would Scherzer pick a non contender? Because Javy(if he figures out AAA) and KB are still both going to be in the minors or have such a small sample size, that they aren't going to be able to be counted on.

 

Our only way, in my opinion, to get a Scherzer next offseason is to strike early on a Markakis type AND make a trade that nets us a very solid major league piece as well. To "prove" that we're going to become much more active.

 

Even then, we have to wade through the total aversion to NTC's, that can cause a serious discrepancy that needs to be addressed.

 

It's not something to ignore, but you're overstating things a bit. Of the top 10 FA contracts from last season, guys signed with Seattle, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Baltimore, and the Mets.

 

Only Cano was elite and comparable to Scherzer, in my eyes. And Seattle appeared to have outbid everyone by 50 mill or more. The rest of the guys basically signed Edwin Jackson type deals. I'm confident we can land THAT caliber of FA. We need to be further along to land the elite guys.

[SouthSideRyan]

We're stuck in perennial hell. If the offers are close or the same, why would Scherzer pick a non contender? Because Javy(if he figures out AAA) and KB are still both going to be in the minors or have such a small sample size, that they aren't going to be able to be counted on.

 

Our only way, in my opinion, to get a Scherzer next offseason is to strike early on a Markakis type AND make a trade that nets us a very solid major league piece as well. To "prove" that we're going to become much more active.

 

Even then, we have to wade through the total aversion to NTC's, that can cause a serious discrepancy that needs to be addressed.

 

It's not something to ignore, but you're overstating things a bit. Of the top 10 FA contracts from last season, guys signed with Seattle, Minnesota, Milwaukee, Baltimore, and the Mets.

 

In the case of Seattle at least, they blew away the competition in the offer, sort of negating the point.

 

And the Orioles won 85 games in '13 and went to the playoffs in '12.

Edited May 12, 2014 by SouthSideRyan

[jersey cubs fan]

And the Orioles won 85 games in '14 and went to the playoffs in '13.

 

Damn, really?

[Guest]

How often aren't the elite guys won by someone who significantly outbids the rest of the field anyway?

 

It never seems to come down to a couple of close offers where a guy decides to opt for the better situation/team or whatever.

 

Sometimes it does, but yeah. And I'm totally talking out of my ass so who knows how accurate that is.

[Guest]

Sure, there's nuances to each individual, but that's also part of the point. The "how are we going to get people to take our money" concern is largely overblown, the greater concern is if the Cubs would actually be offering the most money. If they are, there's plenty of reason to think that the player will take it.

 

Related to that point, this FA class will be really interesting. There is no Cano, Ellsbury, Pujols, Fielder, Upton, or Reyes; no Greinke, Wilson, or Sanchez; not even a Darvish, Tanaka, Cespedes, or Abreu (yet). There's lots of pitching, and most all of it is in guys who are 30+, and in the new CBA teams have not been willing to go to huge dollars or long on years to sign those guys. There's so many(Scherzer, Masterson, Lester, Liriano, Shields, Santana, plus the usual assortment of lesser/older talents for short term deals) that I'm curious to see how teams try to get their guy since there isn't really a bigger fish above them.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't think other teams will have an aversion to Scherzer just because he's 30.

[Guest]

I'm somewhat concerned that you and I had this same discussion last year (so few spots to fill, so much money freed up, and I agreed) and we wound up with nothing, and apparently only "tried" on one player who we fell woefully short on.

 

That's fair, and there are ways they can spend in some fashion without getting anyone really good. I think the combination of every year not being the same(at a certain point they'll "listen" to the public perception if only in attempt to maintain revenue), plus the arrival of some prospects of consequence will mean they're more willing to spend and less likely to want to spread it around to a bunch of positions. To compare, the only meaningful prospects(read: not relievers or Logan Watkins) that have graduated since the start of 2013 are Lake and Olt, and while I'm hopeful one turns into a league averageish hitter to put near the bottom of a lineup, that's not much of anything. At some point next year, any or all of Alcantara, Baez, Bryant, Soler, Hendricks, Johnson, and Edwards could require MLB time to further their development, and there's marginal guys that could push their way into that mix with unexpected results too(Bruno, Black, Pineyro, Villanueva). They won't all or even most be MLB contributors in 2015, but the point is that they're good enough to require playing time in a way that Junior Lake does not, so I think that'll impact the offseason decision making as well.

[SouthSideRyan]

But it's not like we went out and signed a bunch of placeholders to keep spots warm for those guys that are coming up next year. We just didn't do anything.

[Guest]

But it's not like we went out and signed a bunch of placeholders to keep spots warm for those guys that are coming up next year. We just didn't do anything.

 

Right, it's not just the fact that they don't want to block them, it's that they don't want to block them because they're good. The whole "ready to spend" thing is silly, but the point is that even if you think that way you can point to next year as a good time to do so.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They've been quite clear about when they will make major investments:

 

1) When they are one player away

 

or

 

2) When it's an unusually young special-circumstances FA

[Guest]

Why do I feel like I've read these conversations for two years running?

 

It's getting well past the time for them to try to make this team better. It's like Theo has hypnotized the media and most Cub fans. Short of that, they (the ownership) can at least be straight with the fans and not talk in platitudes and parables.

 

As far as sports go the Cubs are about all I have. I'm luke warm toward football and not interested in hockey or basketball and I'm too old to start rooting for another team. This is [expletive] killing me.