Samardzija trade rumors

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not saying they should abandon it, but eventually the market will catch on to the inefficiency that is giving them guys like Hammel and Feldman and Maholm. You can't count on it forever.

[Guest]

I'm not saying they should abandon it, but eventually the market will catch on to the inefficiency that is giving them guys like Hammel and Feldman and Maholm. You can't count on it forever.

 

It's difficult to isolate how much is the FO identifying guys and how well they're being deployed once signed(Bosio). To be clear, I'm not saying we should count on nabbing a 3+ win SP for 5 million each winter, but I think we're to the point where we can play in the shallow pool of SP FA and reliably get average production. And when you can do that, one of the benefits of signing the big fish FA(higher baseline of performance) becomes a little less appealing.

[jersey cubs fan]

the first thing agents need to be doing when the Cubs come calling for one of their ho-hum pitchers is make sure all the other teams know the Cubs want to sign them. The Cubs are probably going to demand secrecy about their presence in negotiations, although it's not like they haven't been linked to these names before signing them.

[Guest]

I'm not saying they should abandon it, but eventually the market will catch on to the inefficiency that is giving them guys like Hammel and Feldman and Maholm. You can't count on it forever.

What's the inefficiency? The Cubs are taking on players that are a risk or thought to be not as good as they *should* be and rehabilitating them with good coaching. If that is the inefficiency it will be around forever.

[Rob]

I'm not saying they should abandon it, but eventually the market will catch on to the inefficiency that is giving them guys like Hammel and Feldman and Maholm. You can't count on it forever.

 

True, but I don't think it will be a problem next year at least. Here's a list of the potential FA SP.

 

Brett Anderson (27) – $12MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout

Josh Beckett (35)

Chad Billingsley (30) – $14MM club option with a $3MM buyout

Joe Blanton (34)

A.J. Burnett (38) – mutual option

Chris Capuano (36)

Bruce Chen (38) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Wei-Yin Chen (29) – $4.75MM club option with a $372K buyout

Kevin Correia (34)

Johnny Cueto (29) – $10MM club option with an $800K buyout

Jorge De La Rosa (34)

Ryan Dempster (38)

Gavin Floyd (32)

Yovani Gallardo (29) – $13MM club option with a $600K buyout

Jason Hammel (32)

J.A. Happ (32) – $6.7MM club option

Aaron Harang (37)

Dan Haren (34) – $10MM player option if 180 innings reached in 2014

Roberto Hernandez (34)

Hisashi Iwakuma (34) – $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Josh Johnson (31) – $4MM club option

Kyle Kendrick (30)

Hiroki Kuroda (40)

Jon Lester (31)

Colby Lewis (35)

Francisco Liriano (31)

Paul Maholm (33)

Justin Masterson (30)

Brandon McCarthy (31)

Brandon Morrow (30) – $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Felipe Paulino (31) – $4MM club option with a $250K buyout

Jake Peavy (34)

Wandy Rodriguez (36)

Ervin Santana (32)

Joe Saunders (34)

Max Scherzer (30)

James Shields (33)

Carlos Villanueva (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (37)

Edinson Volquez (30)

Jerome Williams (33)

 

There's a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be a Maholm, Feldman, Hammel type (including Maholm and Hammel).

[Guest]

I'm not saying they should abandon it, but eventually the market will catch on to the inefficiency that is giving them guys like Hammel and Feldman and Maholm. You can't count on it forever.

What's the inefficiency? The Cubs are taking on players that are a risk or thought to be not as good as they *should* be and rehabilitating them with good coaching. If that is the inefficiency it will be around forever.

 

A big part of it is finding guys who have underperformed their peripherals, though I can't imagine that almost every FO isn't on to that type of thinking as it is.

 

 

Or maybe the inefficiency is just taking Orioles pitchers and letting them throw cutters. :-k

[davell]

If our budget next year is in the 100 million vicinity, I honestly don't want Scherzer. Give me Lester or Shields instead.

[Guest]

If our budget next year is in the 100 million vicinity, I honestly don't want Scherzer. Give me Lester or Shields instead.

 

I think I'm on board with Lester as well.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

There's a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be a Maholm, Feldman, Hammel type (including Maholm and Hammel).

 

But there are a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be Scott Baker or Chris Volstad. They've convinced me they can actually compete in 2015, and for a team with such little certainty on the roster, there's quite a lot of worth in signing a pitcher with a floor above replacement level.

[Little Slide Rooter]

There's a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be a Maholm, Feldman, Hammel type (including Maholm and Hammel).

 

If we're looking for the next high ceiling reclamation, look no further than Wada. Seeing as he's never pitched in the big leagues but has been rostered, anybody know how his arbitration clock would work? Is he under team control or would his circumstances make him a free agent?

 

Now if The Dodgers were to buy out Billingsly, I'd no doubt jump all over that, but I don't see it happening.

[sneakypower]

recall that the FO wanted Hughes, too, and he's been top-5 in pitcher fWAR* so far

 

 

*not so great superficially, though

[Little Slide Rooter]

 

There's a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be a Maholm, Feldman, Hammel type (including Maholm and Hammel).

 

But there are a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be Scott Baker or Chris Volstad. They've convinced me they can actually compete in 2015, and for a team with such little certainty on the roster, there's quite a lot of worth in signing a pitcher with a floor above replacement level.

 

But at 5MM, that's fine. Maholm, Feldman, and Hammel were each brought on with the expectations of being above average 4-5 staters, and each went well beyond. Baker could have been if healthy. I don't think there were any expectations for Volstad so much as a "sure, we'll take him" when we sold Carlos Zambrano to Ozzie Guillen.

 

My point is that when digging through the bargain bin, it's not with the expectation of finding a game changer so much as low risk supplement.

[Rob]

 

There's a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be a Maholm, Feldman, Hammel type (including Maholm and Hammel).

 

But there are a bunch of names on that list that could pretty easily be Scott Baker or Chris Volstad. They've convinced me they can actually compete in 2015, and for a team with such little certainty on the roster, there's quite a lot of worth in signing a pitcher with a floor above replacement level.

 

There is, but how much is that worth?

 

Personally, I'd rather be going after a guy like Maeda than Scherzer or Lester. They're different sorts of risks, but the window for contention lines up better with Maeda than the others. And you can use the leftover cash on an outfield upgrade.

[SouthSideRyan]

If you plan on competing in 2015, I think it's worth a lot. A competitive 2015 Cubs team relies heavily on guys who haven't played in the majors. We don't need to add more guys with that risk.

 

I also don't trust Maeda(So he'll probably outperform Tanaka), nor do I think we save much cash going for him over Lester. (Unless the 20M posting fee is somehow counted outside of PTR)

[Tryptamine]

On Baseball Tonight, Jayson Stark was just saying he's heard the asking price on Samardzija is a 4 for 1 where 3 of them are likely to be the top 3 prospects on most farms.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

On Baseball Tonight, Jayson Stark was just saying he's heard the asking price on Samardzija is a 4 for 1 where 3 of them are likely to be the top 3 prospects on most farms.

 

I'm going to be surprised if any team caves on that. I know it feels like every year some team does, but teams are getting pickier and pickier about giving up prospects, and there are other pitchers on the market.

 

I'm curious to see whether they will lower their price or keep him.

[davell]

I think we'll know on Shark by the ASB. If Hammel is still a Cub at that point, I think Shark is staying put. I don't think they want two guys on the market diluting their own market possibly.

[DiamondMind]

Hammel has a lot of value to me - more than Feldman or Maholm did for sure. 1.01 WHIP going into todays start - check out the location on some of his pitches today too -- bullseyes. Also his slider was in total wipeout mode today. He's rolling.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2014_07_04_chnmlb_wasmlb_1&mode=video&content_id=34282281&tcid=vpp_copy_34282281

[Clem Fandango]

On Baseball Tonight, Jayson Stark was just saying he's heard the asking price on Samardzija is a 4 for 1 where 3 of them are likely to be the top 3 prospects on most farms.

Sounds like they'll trade him only on their terms considering they don't necessarily have to trade him at all. Considering what a half season of guys in the past have gotten the Cubs, I completely understand why they're shooting for the moon with Samardzija. That said, that is a really steep price.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's been their MO for that kind of asking price to stay in place until the last possible minute. Let's see what it looks like on July 31.

 

I could be very wrong, but I'd be stunned to see a team cave on that kind of haul.

[Clem Fandango]

In other news it looks like Sabathia is done for the year, and there's reports his career is in jeopardy as well

 

Yankees are in the playoff hunt. Do they have anyone worth a damn to offer for Samardzija (or Hammel) at this point?

[davell]

Severino is their best pitching prospect, by far. But he's not a big guy(6',180). But he's definitely pitching well. Just got moved to High A. He's 20, but wasn't signed until he was 18. So he's moved very fast. Touches mid 90's, definitely moving up lists now.

 

Ian Clarkin was a 1st rounder last year, a lefty. Solid stuff, mid rotation upside. Sits 90ish, touches 93-94.

 

Gary Sanchez is their best prospect, I guess. He's a C. Has improved behind the plate, still not anything close to a guarantee to stick there. Big bat, but numbers have dropped the higher he's moved up. Questionable makeup, not a hard worker, by some reports.

 

To me, they don't have the pieces to get Shark. For Hammel, 1of that group would definitely need to be involved, along with others. JR Murphy, Manny Banuelos, Rafael Depaula, Slade Heathcott, probably a few others could make semi-decent 2nd or 3rd pieces.(Murphy is a C, Heathcott an OF, other 2 are pitchers) Aaron Judge and Mason Williams(OFers) also fall in this group.

 

Not a fan of their system and would rather deal Hammel elsewhere myself. Unless they're sending 2 of the first 3 names I mentioned.

[Guest]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 3m

Addison Russell’s name has been discussed with #Cubs, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. He is not playing today for #Athletics’ Double A club.

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 3m

#Cubs in serious talks with #Athletics on big trade, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. If completed, Hammel and/or Samardzija would go to A’s.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 3m

Addison Russell’s name has been discussed with #Cubs, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. He is not playing today for #Athletics’ Double A club.

 

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 3m

#Cubs in serious talks with #Athletics on big trade, sources tell me and @jonmorosi. If completed, Hammel and/or Samardzija would go to A’s.

 

 

OK, I take it all back. I want trades!'

 

I can't even imagine what kind of deal a Beane/Epstein trade for two top SPs would look like.

[treebird]

i will have an addison russell plz