It's Opening Day - Predict Our Win Total

[Hairyducked Idiot]

69

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

73.5

[rawaction]

80 wins. Good bullpen. Improvement from Rizzo, Castro, and Olt. Sweeney has a solid year. Baez coming up. Nobody who's production isn't replaceable gets traded. Just miss .500

[treebird]

70. castro is good, rizzo is good, olt is not. shark gets traded for minor leaguers in june. baez doesn't come up until late august (and is the most exciting .280 obp player any of us have ever seen) Edited March 31, 2014 by treebird

[Guest]

70. castro is good, rizzo is good, olt is not. shark gets traded for minor leaguers in june. baez doesn't come up until late august (and is the most exciting .280 obp player any of have ever seen)

 

your javy pessimism makes me sad

[d_money]

77

 

Good performances by the kids in August and September lead to a strong 2015

[Guest]

71, not a fan of the starting rotation and I worry they'll trade Samardzija midseason.

[treebird]

double post

[toonsterwu]

Hmm ... I'll guess somewhere from 68-72, a drop due to expectations of another mid-season where we move veterans out of town. If I had to go with a specific number, I''d guess 69 just because my hunch is that this isn't a 70 win team, but sure, it could be slightly above that. I think Samardzija has a good half-season and is moved for assets at the deadline (at least one young, ready arm). I just don't love the rotation after that. I want to believe that Edwin Jackson will be closer to 2 years ago, but I really do wonder if the slightly slipping velocity is a sign that he's on the start of the down-slope of his career (doesn't mean he can't put together a fantastic season this year, though I am not expecting it obviously). I guess I can imagine say, a CJ Edwards or a trade asset in a Samardzija move bolstering the rotation, but even then ... it'd be debatablehow good they would be this year. My guess is that the pen will show flashes, but will also be inconsistent at times, blowing a few games.

 

Offensively, I expect a bounce back year from Starlin Castro. Still bullish there, and it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with a better ISOP than 2012. I think Rizzo should have better production than 2013, although I'm not sure I expect him to be better than 2012 (just not convinced he's a consistent .280+ hitter at this stage of his career). I have no idea what to expect from Olt. I can see Junior Lake crashing back to earth as MLB pitchers have a bigger report on him.

 

I'll guess that we get one mildly surprising trade this year (I can't really think of anything that would be shocking ... I mean, if Starlin Castro were traded, I think some of us here would say ... well, that was expected. If Rizzo were traded, there might be some surprise, but I don't know about shocking. I guess the only thing that might be shocking would be if we traded off a prospect ... but even then, with the "numbers" game, at some point that would happen. Actually, the only thing that might be shocking is dealing off a good prospect for a veteran, which I absolutely don't expect, hence why I don't think anything will be shocking). Javier Baez will come up, but go through some growing pains.

 

The x-factor, record wise, for me comes down to 2 P's - Pace and Pressure. If we are on a good pace early (say, borderline .500ish at the deadline), I wonder if there will be any internal discussions/pressure to have a competitive team and avoid a big sell-off. By no means do I think they'd make some foolish push for a playoff spot and deal off quality prospects for veterans. But if they avoid selling and/or deal off second or third tier prospects for some small boost, it's not impossible to envision a scenario where they end up say, 5-10 games better. If the moves don't damage the long-term prospects of the team, it's not that hard for me to envision a scenario where they discuss if there is enough value/appeal in selling the general fans that we are improving as a result of a mid-70 win season. After all, outside of Samardzija, there isn't a currently expected potential trade asset that, on paper, will net a huge return.

[MSG T]

75.

 

Good rebounds from Castro and Rizzo, Olt is decent, so is Castillo. Bullpen is really good, starters are ok. Not a big sell off, but Barney is one of them that goes, so that's worth an extra win or two. Baez comes up June-ish and is a monster the first month, comes back to earth some, then levels off at a decent level the last couple of months.

[Old Style]

I was going to say 85 but since Tim already picked that number I will go with 84.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

either 89 or 69

[champaignchris]

I'll go 71.

 

We play better than expected to the trade deadline. Say, .485-ish, but are out of the playoff race and trade off, making us drop further off the pace, playing .350-ish the rest of the way.

 

We have a winning record in '15.

[Guest]

82 wins and they'll play better in the second half than the first.

[Backtobanks]

68

[Mark Priors Calves]

71

[neely crenshaw]

I going with 70. I think we will play slightly better than that but we will have one more season of a few sell offs to drop us off at the end.

I am looking to Castro to be our MVP/MIP this season maybe not back to 2010-2011 but make a run at 200 hits and .300 again.

[sweetpeteman]

103

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or maybe not. I'm trying to be optimistic and say 80ish, but I can't... 72

[Bull]

I was going to say 85 but since Tim already picked that number I will go with 84.

me too. I'll go 86.

[neely crenshaw]

I was going to say 85 but since Tim already picked that number I will go with 84.

me too. I'll go 86.

that would be down right "Joe Hardyish"...

[Guest]

72

[SouthSideRyan]

69

[Have a seat, Neifi]

66

[Old Style]

I meant to say 58, not 85.

[hawkeyecub]

74