2014 NFL Draft Thread

[rawaction]

Interested to see if Auburn's rs sophomore LT Greg Robison opts to be drafted late first, early second or to come back next year and potentially be a top 10 pick.

 

He and Bortles are the 2 most interesting decisions.

[Derwood]

Just read through those mocks, and there seems not to be any sort of consensus. Could be very interesting this year. Of course the mocks will align more closely once we know who's declaring and how players show at pro-days/the combine

[Guest]

Interested to see if Auburn's rs sophomore LT Greg Robison opts to be drafted late first, early second or to come back next year and potentially be a top 10 pick.

 

I think Robinson will actually get drafted higher than late first given his athleticism and measuables.

 

I like Kony Ealy a lot too. Think he could be a first rounder, he's definitely a better NFL prospect than Michael Sam.

[rawaction]

Interested to see if Auburn's rs sophomore LT Greg Robison opts to be drafted late first, early second or to come back next year and potentially be a top 10 pick.

 

I think Robinson will actually get drafted higher than late first given his athleticism and measuables.

 

I like Kony Ealy a lot too. Think he could be a first rounder, he's definitely a better NFL prospect than Michael Sam.

 

Yeah I like Robinson more than Kouandijo and Lewan. My #2 OT if he comes out. Top 15 maybe.

 

Ealy and Gaines (CB) are potential sleeper 1st rounders.

[Splendid Splinter]

Just curious but is Jordan Lynch eligible for this draft? I know he's from a small school and is a runner and all, but I figured I would throw his name out there as a developmental QB possibly?

[rawaction]

Just curious but is Jordan Lynch eligible for this draft? I know he's from a small school and is a runner and all, but I figured I would throw his name out there as a developmental QB possibly?

 

Yeah, he's a senior. I think he'll get a shot as a 6th or 7th rounder as a QB. Doesn't look like much of a thrower though. But I wouldn't count him out.

[jersey cubs fan]

Just curious but is Jordan Lynch eligible for this draft? I know he's from a small school and is a runner and all, but I figured I would throw his name out there as a developmental QB possibly?

 

Is he the NIU guy?

 

I read that he said, "my first choice is to be a QB and then if that fails I just want to make a roster." I think he'll have to figure out a different way to make a roster than QB.

[Outshined_One]

Not much of a surprise, but Clowney and Bridgewater declared today.

[Derwood]

I would think O'Brien would push for Teddy over Clowney

[Guest]

Manziel is going to be a legendary pro.

[Andy]

I would think O'Brien would push for Teddy over Clowney

I would think a guy who can turn Matt [expletive] McGloin into an NFL starting quarterback wouldn't care too much who he was working with. I'm not sure I'd take Clowney #1 though. People making a lot more money than me are tasked with figuring out what to make of his 2013.

[NOLA]

Manziel is going to be a legendary pro.

No way. His only exceptional skill are his legs and his elusiveness, and with his frame that is going to get him killed in the NFL. The only comparison of a running QB close to that size in the league is Vick, and he's never stayed healthy. Plus he's way too reckless with the ball and throws tons of 50/50 balls that Evans pulled down. I don't see it.

[imb]

Manziel is going to be a legendary pro.

No way. His only exceptional skill are his legs and his elusiveness, and with his frame that is going to get him killed in the NFL. The only comparison of a running QB close to that size in the league is Vick, and he's never stayed healthy. Plus he's way too reckless with the ball and throws tons of 50/50 balls that Evans pulled down. I don't see it.

 

one difference (in my book anyway.) vick was a runner. He took running back hits. Manziel is a scrambler, he doesn't really take hits. He's just elusive and is able to make something out of nothing. Obviously those 40 yard runs are not going to happen in the nfl, but his entire running style is built on avoiding defenders. I think he'll be ok with ducking down and letting a 40-yard college run turn into a 12-yard nfl run.

[Andy]

Manziel is going to be a legendary pro.

No way. His only exceptional skill are his legs and his elusiveness, and with his frame that is going to get him killed in the NFL. The only comparison of a running QB close to that size in the league is Vick, and he's never stayed healthy. Plus he's way too reckless with the ball and throws tons of 50/50 balls that Evans pulled down. I don't see it.

 

one difference (in my book anyway.) vick was a runner. He took running back hits. Manziel is a scrambler, he doesn't really take hits. He's just elusive and is able to make something out of nothing. Obviously those 40 yard runs are not going to happen in the nfl, but his entire running style is built on avoiding defenders. I think he'll be ok with ducking down and letting a 40-yard college run turn into a 12-yard nfl run.

Cam Newton has from day one proven adept at picking up yards on the ground without ever really taking a hit. If he can do it, I'm sure Manziel can.

[imb]

I've seen lots of "Bridgewater is the 9th best player in the draft but he's the top qb and houston needs a qb so he'll go no. 1" stuff, and it got me thinking.

 

If you go back to the two Elway superbowls in 1998 and 1999...

 

QBs who won the Superbowl

1st round, 1st pick (Elway 98, 99. Manning, 2007. Eli Manning, 2008, 2011.)

1st round, 6th pick (Dilfer, 2001.)

1st round, 11th pick (Roethlisberger, 2006. 2009.)

1st round, 18th pick (Joe Flacco, 2013.)

1st round, 24th pick (Aaron Rodgers, 2011.)

2nd round (Drew Brees, 2010)

6th round (Tom Brady, 2002, 2004, 2005)

9th round (Brad Johnson, 2003)

Undrafted (Warner, 2000.)

 

You've got three guys who've won superbowls (Elway, the Mannings) who were drafted with ELITE TOOLS 1.1 GRADE. And Eli hasn't ever reached that 1.1 potential (you could say the same for Dilfer at 1.6.)

 

So aren't you better off just building up the rest of your team and trying to get lucky with a QB later on than trying to ram a square QB into a round hole?

[Butterscup1679666578]

i dont think manziel is going to be a brady, manning, etc., but i think he'll be a fine NFL QB. i don't know why.

[Outshined_One]

I've seen lots of "Bridgewater is the 9th best player in the draft but he's the top qb and houston needs a qb so he'll go no. 1" stuff, and it got me thinking.

 

If you go back to the two Elway superbowls in 1998 and 1999...

 

QBs who won the Superbowl

1st round, 1st pick (Elway 98, 99. Manning, 2007. Eli Manning, 2008, 2011.)

1st round, 6th pick (Dilfer, 2001.)

1st round, 11th pick (Roethlisberger, 2006. 2009.)

1st round, 18th pick (Joe Flacco, 2013.)

1st round, 24th pick (Aaron Rodgers, 2011.)

2nd round (Drew Brees, 2010)

6th round (Tom Brady, 2002, 2004, 2005)

9th round (Brad Johnson, 2003)

Undrafted (Warner, 2000.)

 

You've got three guys who've won superbowls (Elway, the Mannings) who were drafted with ELITE TOOLS 1.1 GRADE. And Eli hasn't ever reached that 1.1 potential (you could say the same for Dilfer at 1.6.)

 

So aren't you better off just building up the rest of your team and trying to get lucky with a QB later on than trying to ram a square QB into a round hole?

 

The problem is, the later the draft goes, the less likely a team is to find a quality starting QB. This is actually a pretty good overview of the last 13 years of QB draft picks. Granted, it's a bit subjective in terms of evaluations and cutoffs, but the underlying data has a list of QBs that drives the point home. Your odds of finding someone who might even be passable declines dramatically with every round.

 

Now, granted, the Texans might be of the opinion that Matt Schaub could be salvaged or they could make a run at a free agent QB. There is also something to be said for trusting your scouts and talent evaluators to make the right decision. But, if they need a franchise QB, the odds favor taking Bridgewater 1.1 over, say, taking Aaron Murray at 4.1.

[imb]

yeah but do you need to target a franchise qb to the extent of drafting teddy bridgewater 1.1?

 

Look at all the QBs drafted in the top 5 the last 10 years

2003: Palmer

2004: Manning, Rivers

2005: Alex Smith

2006: Vince Young

2007: Jamarcus Russell

2008: Matt Ryan

2009: Stafford, Sanchez

2010: Bradford

2011: Cam

2012: Luck, RG3

2013: None.

 

The only super bowl winner on that list has never been an elite guy in the nfl.

[Outshined_One]

yeah but do you need to target a franchise qb to the extent of drafting teddy bridgewater 1.1?

 

Look at all the QBs drafted in the top 5 the last 10 years

2003: Palmer

2004: Manning, Rivers

2005: Alex Smith

2006: Vince Young

2007: Jamarcus Russell

2008: Matt Ryan

2009: Stafford, Sanchez

2010: Bradford

2011: Cam

2012: Luck, RG3

2013: None.

 

The only super bowl winner on that list has never been an elite guy in the nfl.

 

I understand the focus on Super Bowl winning QBs, but I don't think it's an appropriate metric as far as measuring how good a QB is. Having a good QB is important for a team to win the Super Bowl, but winning it requires so much more than a good QB that I just don't think it's fair to judge how good a QB is based on Super Bowl wins, especially considering only two of the players on your list are out of football.

 

Moreover, I'll acknowledge that there's a difference between a team taking a QB in the first five picks because the team thinks he's the best player as opposed to a team taking a QB in the first five picks because he's the best available QB, despite ranking a handful of guys ahead of him. If the Texans don't think Bridgewater is worth the 1.1 pick, then they'd be fools to draft him.

 

However, if the Texans' intent is to acquire a franchise QB in the draft, their odds are significantly better at 1.1 than at 4.1, especially if they think Bridgewater (or whomever) is worth the pick.

[WrigleyField 22]

I guess it depends partially on how you feel about the 4th or 5th QB. If Bridewater is 9th overall, what's Tajh Boyd's ranking overall and what do you feel about him at 2.1 or even trading back up into the late first and sacrificing a 4th rounder.

 

Even evaluating Bridgewater against the 2nd and 3rd QBs is necessary because maybe a trade down is the best bet.

[Guest]

Manziel is going to be a legendary pro.

No way. His only exceptional skill are his legs and his elusiveness, and with his frame that is going to get him killed in the NFL. The only comparison of a running QB close to that size in the league is Vick, and he's never stayed healthy. Plus he's way too reckless with the ball and throws tons of 50/50 balls that Evans pulled down. I don't see it.

 

I will say he has improved his throwing mechanics and arm strength this season from last. Can't blame him for throwing jump balls since Evans is so good at getting them. That said, I'm still not that high on him, especially compared to Bortles and Bridgewater. I think Manziel has to get drafted to the right situation, moreso than most other rookie QBs.

[RynoRules]

Manziel is going to be a legendary pro.

 

I agree and have been beating that drum with my Friends who are Browns fans. Drafting him and another WR or O-Lineman later in the 1st Rnd plus signing Ben Tate would make their O immediately solid. Manziel has a lot of Favre in him, IMO.

[Guest]

Manziel is like a taller Russell Wilson with the arm of Brett Favre. He'll be a gunslinger, no doubt, but he's already got exceptional pocket awareness and that's all you really need to be a decent QB in the league.

[RynoRules]

Manziel is going to be a legendary pro.

No way. His only exceptional skill are his legs and his elusiveness, and with his frame that is going to get him killed in the NFL. The only comparison of a running QB close to that size in the league is Vick, and he's never stayed healthy. Plus he's way too reckless with the ball and throws tons of 50/50 balls that Evans pulled down. I don't see it.

 

I will say he has improved his throwing mechanics and arm strength this season from last. Can't blame him for throwing jump balls since Evans is so good at getting them. That said, I'm still not that high on him, especially compared to Bortles and Bridgewater. I think Manziel has to get drafted to the right situation, moreso than most other rookie QBs.

 

He actually covers for his teammates with his ability to get out of the pocket and make plays. Jump balls are part of playing QB in the modern NFL. If he can also throw the back shoulder pass and slant he'll be fine. Potentially more than fine. Who cares if he's a douche? He has balls and skills.

[RynoRules]

Manziel is like a taller Russell Wilson with the arm of Brett Favre. He'll be a gunslinger, no doubt, but he's already got exceptional pocket awareness and that's all you really need to be a decent QB in the league.

 

This